[SWODY1] SWODY1

[SWODY1 at goshenarc.org]

ACUS01 KWNS 010057
SWODY1
SPC AC 010055

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004

VALID 010100Z - 011200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW
EAU 20 NNW LSE 40 ENE ALO 35 SW FOD 15 W SUX 10 NNW YKN 30 E HON 10
ENE ATY 45 SW AXN 25 SE STC 40 WNW EAU.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 40 S MAF
BWD TXK 25 WNW UOX BWG 35 SSW LUK 10 NW CLE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MQT 40 S ESC MKE
IRK 25 SE EMP DDC EHA ROW 50 SE DMN ...CONT... 60 SW TUS IGM 35 W
CDC EVW TWF 55 NNW WMC 45 E MHS 35 NNW MHS 45 NNW MFR 20 SW RDM 60
ESE BKE DLN 15 NE MSO 90 ENE 63S.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PART OF ERN SD INTO
SRN MN/NRN IA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WI...

...ERN SD/SRN MN/NRN IA/FAR WEST CENTRAL WI...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN MANITOBA SWWD TO
ERN SD...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER
MS VALLEY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS.

EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD
WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN MN NEAR RWF TO JUST SOUTH
OF MSP.  INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AIR /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER
70S/ INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS FOR ANOTHER
FEW HOURS /UNTIL AROUND 03Z/.  WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AT 40-50 KT
EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND THE
INCREASING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT
TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
ACROSS FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN-SRN MN.  

AFTER 03Z...A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT WILL VEER OVERNIGHT TOWARD SERN
MN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL
AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS.

...FAR NWRN MN...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SERN MANITOBA WILL
LIKELY MOVE OVER FAR NWRN TO NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z.  00Z INL
RAOB INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY HAVE
DIFFICULTY MOVING TOO FAR INTO NRN MN. IF STORMS IN MANITOBA CAN
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN MN...SUFFICIENT DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL.

..PETERS.. 08/01/2004

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.