From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 01:01:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 20:01:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408010100.i7110GD10537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010057 SWODY1 SPC AC 010055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW EAU 20 NNW LSE 40 ENE ALO 35 SW FOD 15 W SUX 10 NNW YKN 30 E HON 10 ENE ATY 45 SW AXN 25 SE STC 40 WNW EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 40 S MAF BWD TXK 25 WNW UOX BWG 35 SSW LUK 10 NW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MQT 40 S ESC MKE IRK 25 SE EMP DDC EHA ROW 50 SE DMN ...CONT... 60 SW TUS IGM 35 W CDC EVW TWF 55 NNW WMC 45 E MHS 35 NNW MHS 45 NNW MFR 20 SW RDM 60 ESE BKE DLN 15 NE MSO 90 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PART OF ERN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WI... ...ERN SD/SRN MN/NRN IA/FAR WEST CENTRAL WI... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN MANITOBA SWWD TO ERN SD...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN MN NEAR RWF TO JUST SOUTH OF MSP. INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AIR /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS /UNTIL AROUND 03Z/. WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AT 40-50 KT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND THE INCREASING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ACROSS FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN-SRN MN. AFTER 03Z...A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT WILL VEER OVERNIGHT TOWARD SERN MN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...FAR NWRN MN... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SERN MANITOBA WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER FAR NWRN TO NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z. 00Z INL RAOB INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING TOO FAR INTO NRN MN. IF STORMS IN MANITOBA CAN REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN MN...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL. ..PETERS.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 06:21:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 01:21:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408010620.i716KwD28693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010618 SWODY1 SPC AC 010616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE MOT 10 WSW TVF 20 ESE BJI 40 E BRD 25 NNW MSP 20 NW MKT 30 NNW FOD 50 WSW FOD 35 S SUX 15 NNW OFK 35 WNW ATY 20 SE BIS 50 ESE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT 25 S MTW 40 WNW CGX 15 S BRL FNB 30 W LNK 35 SSE 9V9 40 E PIR 35 WSW Y22 35 NNE DIK 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 ESE BIH 25 W NFL 65 SE 4LW 60 SSE LMT 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 25 SSW EUG 15 N PDT 10 NNW 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 35 SSW OSC 15 NNE AZO 15 ENE ALN 25 N SZL GRI 20 WSW LBF 30 W GLD 25 NE CAO 45 W ROW 30 NW GDP 15 NNW INK 25 WSW SEP 25 NE GLH 40 S MSL 25 N 5I3 10 N PSB 10 SSW UCA 30 N PBG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN ND...ERN SD...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN MN...EXTREME NERN NEB AND NWRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EWD OVER THE MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... ...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN/EXTREME NERN NEB AND NWRN IA... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MO VALLEY TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /50-60 KT/ EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN BC IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD TO WRN ND BY 00Z...AND THEN ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES ERN SD/WRN MN REGION TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SRN SD/NRN NEB. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN MT ESEWD ACROSS WRN ND TO ERN SD AND OVER SRN MN/WI. ...DAKOTAS EWD ACROSS MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB NEWD ACROSS IA INTO CENTRAL/SRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA AND PORTIONS OF WI AS A SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THIS REGION RESULTS IN WAA CONVECTION. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OVER SD WILL AID IN ADVECTING LOWER 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NWD INTO ERN SD/SWRN-WEST CENTRAL MN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE AIR MASS FROM SD/NEB INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN SD/WRN MN AND A DRY LINE EXTENDING N-S ACROSS ERN SD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE MODERATE RISK. 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG/ OVER THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS A SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AGAIN FROM NRN KS INTO IA...INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA INTO SRN WI TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER WRN ND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER ND COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN-CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 00-03Z AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A POTENTIAL BOW ECHO WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM ERN ND TO WRN/CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE BOW WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS A SWLY LLJ ADVECTS MOISTURE NNEWD WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED INTO ERN ND TO CENTRAL MN. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 40 KT OF SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NWRN CA SHOULD AID IN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...GIVEN 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 13:04:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 08:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408011305.i71D5UD17239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011301 SWODY1 SPC AC 011259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ABR 35 NNE ATY 45 WSW STC MKT 40 E FOD DSM 50 ESE OMA OMA 20 NNW OFK MHE HON 25 SE ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL ELO IWD CWA 30 NW MMO 45 NNW COU 30 N SZL STJ FNB LNK 40 W OFK 9V9 35 NNW PIR 35 WSW Y22 30 NW DIK 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC BLV SGF 30 SW BIE MCK 30 W GLD 25 NE CAO 45 W ROW GDP INK SEP 40 S MSL 30 W BKW AOO 45 W ALB 30 NE EFK ...CONT... 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 ESE BIH 25 W NFL 65 SE 4LW 60 SSE LMT 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 25 SSW EUG 15 N PDT 3TH 55 NNW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SD...SWRN MN...WRN IA..NERN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM MUCH OF ND SEWD TOWARD NWRN IL AND NRN MO... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CONUS THROUGHOUT REMAINDER PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS GENERALLY EWD FROM SRN ROCKIES ACROSS S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG RIDGE WILL EXTEND NWWD ACROSS ID/WA. UPSTREAM CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY BETWEEN BAY AREA AND CAPE MENDOCINO -- IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH BY AROUND END OF PERIOD...AND MOVE SLOWLY ASHORE NRN CA. AT SFC...PRIMARY LOW IS ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL SD BETWEEN PIR-MHE AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN SD AREA THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS. THREE BAROCLINIC ZONES ARE ANALYZED INTO THIS LOW -- 1. OCCLUDED FRONT NEWD ACROSS NWRN MN... 2.WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS SERN SD/SWRN MN BECOMING DIFFUSED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER SRN MN...AND 3.SECONDARY WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS NWRN MO -- REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW OVER IA. EXPECT WARM FRONTAL ZONES TO BLEND TOGETHER E THROUGH ESE OF SFC LOW DURING DAY. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE DRIFTING EWD OVER NRN MN AND BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SD NNE OF SFC LOW. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ONGOING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS IA AND ERN NEB DEVELOPED IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE BEHIND A COUPLE OF DEAD MCS/S...AND MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL THROUGH MIDMORNING. OAX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...BUT LAYER OF RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS THAT PRODUCES SMALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR -- IN CAPE BEARING LAYER. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ONCE AGAIN BY ABOUT 21Z OVER PORTIONS ERN SD...SW MN...AND PORTIONS WRN IA...IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. EXPECT MOIST ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDS VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH 3000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE. TIGHTENING OF HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY AFTERNOON. MODIFIED ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS REASONABLY INDICATE 45-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH AS HIGH AS 300-350 J/KG. TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR SFC LOW AND INVOF WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED...CONTRIBUTING TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND GREATEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. PRIND MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER MDT RISK AREA ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY. STRONG CAPPING WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF DAY. HOWEVER...ONCE IT BREAKS...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED. THIS INCLUDES THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL LIKELY. TORNADOES AND SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BETWEEN LOWER MO AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT EVOLVING INTO DAMAGING WIND. SECONDARY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS ND/NRN MN TONIGHT...W OF OCCLUDED FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH. STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY CURRENT CONVECTION OVER NERN MT/NWRN SD. NEITHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOR BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AS INTENSE AS FARTHER SE...HOWEVER STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT...40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT WITHIN 150-200 NM OF CANADIAN BORDER. ...NRN AZ/SRN UT REGION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING DEEP SLY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SERVE TO FURTHER MOISTEN BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT ALSO TO RETARD ONSET/INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON DIABATIC HEATING. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND POORLY ORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 16:11:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 11:11:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408011611.i71GB2D01985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011606 SWODY1 SPC AC 011604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABR 35 NE ATY RWF FRM 40 E FOD DSM 55 WSW DSM OMA OFK MHE ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 SE ELO CMX ANJ PLN GRB MSN RFD UIN MKC FNB GRI BUB 9V9 10 NW Y22 DIK 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 25 ENE AZO 20 NW SLO 10 SSW SGF 35 SE HSI 35 N HLC 35 SSW GLD 35 NNE CAO 30 NW TCC 50 NNE ROW 25 SE HOB 25 WSW SEP 25 NE GLH 40 S MSL 30 W BKW 35 ENE CRW 25 SSE PIT 15 NNW ELM 35 NNE UCA 10 ENE EFK ...CONT... 10 SSE IPL 35 NE TRM 40 ESE BIH 15 ESE RNO 60 NNE SVE 45 E MHS 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 15 N SLE 35 NW PDT 10 NNW 3TH 55 NNW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SD...NORTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST MN...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES TODAY. SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW REGIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MO/IL/WI AND UPPER MI. ...IA/MN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER EASTERN SD...AND A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEMS OVER ND AND NORTHEAST WY. THE EASTERN FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS IA/MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL FOCUS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA. ...SD/NEB/MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ND/WY WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN SD BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA GUIDANCE APPEARS TO OVER-DEVELOP EARLY CONVECTION...WHILE 12Z RUC SCENARIO APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE REASONABLE. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90F AND THE SURFACE DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD TO ROUGHLY AN OFK-ABR LINE. EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. CAP WILL HOLD STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS WILL AID IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21-00Z. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAY ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHWEST IA. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...ND TONIGHT... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MT WILL TRACK INTO ND OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...UPPER MI... PER COORDINATION WITH APX...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME RISK OF LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OVER UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG HEATING WILL HELP LAKE BREEZE FORM...WHILE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE PRESENT FOR A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN IL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REMNANT MCV OVER EASTERN IA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL TODAY...WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...NV/UT/AZ... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S...SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF UT/NV/AZ. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES... COMBINED WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL WINDS. A FEW STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 20:07:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 15:07:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408012006.i71K6uD03010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012002 SWODY1 SPC AC 012000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30 ENE OLU 25 WSW YKN 15 NNW HON 35 ESE ABR 40 NE ATY 15 NNE RWF 35 W MCW 30 NNW DSM 60 WSW DSM OMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW ANJ 20 ESE GRB 40 NE MLI 40 WSW UIN 20 WNW SZL 10 ESE TOP 35 SW BIE 15 SE ANW 25 SW Y22 60 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 30 NNE DAG 65 SSE NFL 50 N SVE 45 ESE MHS 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 15 N SLE 35 NW PDT 10 NNW 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 15 SW LAF 10 E BLV 35 SW TBN 20 W JLN 25 E ICT 15 S RSL 50 WSW HLC 50 NE LAA 45 E TAD 55 WSW CAO 30 WNW CVS 45 NE HOB 60 NE BGS 35 SSW SPS 15 N ADM 20 NNE PGO 45 E PBF 30 NNE TUP 35 ESE BNA HTS 20 SE PIT 15 WNW UCA 35 NNW BML. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD...SW MN...WRN IA AND FAR NE NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...WRN GREAT LAKES...UPPER MIDWEST AND MO VALLEY... ...UPPER MO VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE RUC MODEL CURRENTLY HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD ACROSS SD AND NRN NEB. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER SRN SD WITH A SMALL MOISTURE TONGUE IN PLACE ACROSS NE SD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DRIFTING EWD NEAR ABR AND AS THIS PATCH MOVES INTO A MAXIMUM OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR WATERTOWN SD...INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS SRN ND AND EWD ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT IN SRN MN. STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING IN SRN IA AND THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN ERN SD AND WRN MN WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE BACKED SFC FLOW ACROSS SE SD AND NW IA MAY ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN BY EARLY EVENING. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE STORMS MATURE LATER THIS EVENING...SPREADING SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS FAR NE NEB AND WRN IA. IF AN MCS CAN GET GOING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE KANSAS CITY AREA LATE TONIGHT. ...DESERT SOUTHWEST... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER SERN CA AND SRN NV MOVING NWD WHICH SHOULD REACH WRN UT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR PEAK HEATING. DECREASING INSTABILITY BY EARLY EVENING WILL ALLOW THE MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 01:25:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 20:25:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408020124.i721OUD26888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020121 SWODY1 SPC AC 020120 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OMA 25 E OLU 65 SSE 9V9 15 WSW PIR 60 S Y22 20 SSW BIS 20 E BIS 35 ESE JMS 30 S AXN 15 S MKT 40 E FOD DSM 45 E OMA 15 S OMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE INL 50 WSW DLH 50 SE DLH 25 SE VOK 25 SW MLI 20 WNW IRK 20 SE FNB 10 W BIE 30 S PHP 40 SE REJ 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 30 SW DAG 70 NNW BIH 10 ESE SVE 45 ESE MHS 30 SSE RBL 45 NW UKI 15 NW ACV 15 N SLE 45 WNW ALW 25 E 3TH 55 WNW CTB ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 25 NNW LAF 10 WSW MTO 40 NW POF 25 WNW SGF 20 ESE CNK 30 SSW EAR 30 WSW LBF 35 E AKO 45 E TAD 35 WNW CAO 30 W TCC 10 W PVW 65 NW ABI 45 NW MWL 30 NNE FTW 30 SW PRX 30 W ELD 50 ESE GWO 20 W HSV 20 NNW 5I3 LBE 10 NW RUT 20 SSE CAR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN ND INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB AND PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONGEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE U.S./ CANADA BORDER EWD OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS CRESTED THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IS AIDING IN ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SWRN ND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD SRN MN TONIGHT...WHILE A SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO SRN ONTARIO. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK EWD TOWARD WRN ONTARIO/NWRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY. ...DAKOTAS EWD TO MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ND WITH TWO BOUNDARIES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN ND AND FAR NRN SD INTO CENTRAL MN. SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWWD TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...AND INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/ AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL SD EWD ACROSS ALL OF SRN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI...AND SWD ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG/. GIVEN THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SWRN ND/NWRN SD ATTM AND THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL SD HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...THE MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED WNWWD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD AND SRN ND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THIS CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GIVEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN MN/ SERN SD AND ERN NEB TO IA DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN LINEAR MCS WITH A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AT 40-50 KT NOSING INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY FAVORS THIS SCENARIO WITH THE WIND THREAT POTENTIALLY REACHING NRN MO AND EXTREME NERN KS/SERN NEB BY 12Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN ND INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN MN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA SPREADS EWD OVERNIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NERN WI/NRN LOWER MI AND U.P. OF MI... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REST OF NERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI TO NRN LOWER MI THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER THIS SAME AREA WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NW... DEEP SLY FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF NWRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WRN STATES SHOW STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...RESULTING IN STRONG WIND GUSTS. POCKETS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 06:23:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 01:23:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408020622.i726MvD14085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020620 SWODY1 SPC AC 020619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW JMS 60 W AXN 20 E STC 30 ENE EAU 10 NNW OSH 10 WNW MKE 25 SW CGX 15 ESE BMI 20 NW STL 35 W COU 20 ESE FNB 15 ENE GRI 25 SE MHN 35 ENE AIA 25 N CDR 10 SE 81V 40 NE COD 20 SW WEY 55 SSE 27U 50 WSW BOI 40 SSE BNO 55 ESE RDM 40 SE DLS 40 S EPH 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE YUM 35 SSE EED 50 SSW DRA 55 W TPH 65 NE SVE 50 NNW SVE 15 W RBL 55 SSE EKA 15 NNE ACV 20 N EUG 45 NE PDX 25 SSE EAT 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 25 N PBG 35 NE BFD 35 NNE SDF 40 ESE POF 30 SSE SGF 25 SSW TOP 30 S HSI 20 S LBF 35 SE SNY LIC 40 E RTN 20 ESE TCC 15 WNW LBB 30 W ABI GGG 20 NNE MEI 15 S ANB 25 SW CSV 15 SSW JKL 20 SSW MGW 25 WNW CXY 30 ESE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO MT AND SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND WA/ORE IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING SWD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO FALL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...ERN NEB/IA/SRN MN TO MIDWEST STATES THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON... MCS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER ERN ND...ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL MN/ WEST CENTRAL WI BY 12Z THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW THE MOIST AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP AS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES STORMS SHOULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST ACROSS LOWER MI AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...SD/NEB EWD TO SRN MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS MOVING ACROSS ERN NEB/IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL/SRN SD TO WRN IA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE EFFECTIVE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER SD/NRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN EWD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS IA AND POTENTIALLY SRN MN. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS SRN-SERN SD AND NERN NEB WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG/ BY 21-00Z FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB ESEWD INTO WRN IA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN ID...IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD BY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE OVER THIS AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR A TORNADO THREAT. A STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE ID SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT WILL FAVOR THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS INTO IA/SRN MN. FORECAST INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SUPPORTS THE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUS...PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SD/NEB EWD TO MN/IA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AS PLACEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE APPARENT IN TIME. ...MT/WRN ND... SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WRN MT ESEWD ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER. RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW... THOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAK...ATOP ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALSO LIKELY INTO WRN ND AS WAA AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN THE NWRN CA CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION....COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14C AT 500 MB/ AND 35 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF WA/ORE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ID THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. ...GREAT BASIN... FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 12:58:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 07:58:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408021257.i72CvJ907171@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021254 SWODY1 SPC AC 021252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNE OLF BIS ABR 35 NW STC 65 S DLH AUW MBS 20 SSE JXN 35 SSE SBN MTO ALN JEF FLV GRI 25 SE MHN 35 ENE AIA GCC 20 NE LVM BTM 27U SUN 25 N OWY 95 SSE BNO 55 ESE RDM 40 SE DLS 40 S EPH 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE YUM 35 SSE EED 50 SSW DRA 55 W TPH 65 NE SVE 50 NNW SVE RBL 55 SSE EKA 15 NNE ACV EUG 45 NE PDX EPH 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 25 N PBG BFD SDF 40 NNW DYR UMN MHK 35 S HSI IML LIC 40 E RTN 35 SE TCC LBB ABI GGG 20 NNE MEI ANB 45 SW CSV JKL MGW 25 WNW CXY 30 ESE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES TO SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN ON SYNOPTIC SCALE REMAINS DOMINATED BY STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER OK...AND 90-110 KT 250 MB JET MAX OVER SRN CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS AROUND SRN RIM OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX. WEAK BUT AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVER TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS REGION. MEANWHILE NRN CA LOW IS MOVING INLAND AND EVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL REACH ORE/ID BORDER AREA BY END OF PERIOD. WAVY SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SRN LOWER MI WNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN...THEN SWWD THROUGH WEAK LOW INVOF SD BADLANDS...AND INTO ERN WY. BOTH SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW-RELATED PROCESSES WILL SHIFT THIS FRONTAL ZONE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER SD/MN...AND MUCH OF IA/NEB...BY END OF PERIOD...WITH MAIN FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE LOW REFORMING OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. SFC TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM N-CENTRAL MT SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB. ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO LOWER MI AND IL... TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL -- BOTH ONGOING AND WITH POSSIBLE REGENERATION FARTHER SE -- COMPEL EWD EXTENTION OF CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. 1. MCS THAT HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL -- ACROSS PORTIONS ND/MN...SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INVOF FRONTAL ZONE -- PERHAPS ACROSS WI AND LM AS FAR AS PORTIONS LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC BASED ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOUPLES. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED THERMAL/MOIST AXES JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH 50-100 NM WIDE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY LARGE THETAE. 2. LARGER BUT MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION FROM NERN KS/NWRN MO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN IA. THIS APPEARS MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY -- OVER IA MUST CROSS ANOTHER 100-150 NM OF RELATIVELY STABLE...LOW-THETAE SFC AIR BEFORE REACHING NNE-SSW ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS IN CENTRAL AND NERN IL. IN MEANTIME...LOSS OF LLJ SUPPORT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY ABOUT 15Z. ...N-CENTRAL LOW PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY - AFTERNOON-EVENING... ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCS'S IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT -- THIS TIME DISPLACED SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN PAST COUPLE DAYS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR FROM ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STRONG CAPPING SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL TSTMS. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NEB...AND SHOULD RECOVER OVER NERN NEB AND WRN IA FROM EFFECTS OF PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY LOWERED DEW POINTS. AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ACQUIRE 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS THROUGH MOIST ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...WHILE MAINTAINING SOME BACKED FLOW AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT 3000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE IN THAT AREA. RESULTING MCS SHOULD TRACK SEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY TOWARD SRN IA/NRN MO OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND DAMAGE MAIN THREAT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES... LARGE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL ELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PLAINS OF MT AND NERN WY. ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OVERLIE WY/MT ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...AIR MASS SHOULD MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF SFC TROUGH. STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS -- I.E.. 150-250 J/KG SRH -- AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEARS -- 35-40 KT -- FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ACCOMPANYING LARGE HAIL THREAT...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO BOWS. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST GIVEN RATHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS INTO WHICH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING. ...ERN ORE/ID THROUGH GREAT BASIN REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM ERN ORE/SERN WA ACROSS PORTIONS ID THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF APCHG MIDLEVEL TROUGH. BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY ANALYZED OVER ERN WA/ORE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS EXTENDING UP TO WITHIN 575-650 MB LAYER. SOME ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS OR BOWS WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC WITH SWD/SEWD EXTENT FROM ERN ORE THROUGH NV AND UT AS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DIMINISHES AWAY FROM PACIFIC COAST TROUGH. HOWEVER...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OFFSET DRY SFC AIR ENOUGH TO YIELD 300-600 J/KG MLCAPE OVER BASINS. A FEW DRY MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS -- TS ALEX... GIVEN FCST WIND FIELDS OVER NRN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK TO MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED LOW-TOP SUPERCELLS...YIELDING ONLY OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ANY STRENGTHENING/EXPANSION OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND CURRENT PROGS...AND/OR ANY DEEPER INLAND SPREAD OF FAVORABLE SHEAR OVER NERN QUADRANT...MIGHT ENLARGE HODOGRAPH AND ELEVATE TORNADO PROBABILITIES PAST CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CRITERIA. REF NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST TS WATCHES/WARNINGS...AND FCSTS OF TRACK AND SFC WIND FIELDS. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 16:39:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 11:39:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408021639.i72Gd5915957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021636 SWODY1 SPC AC 021634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW MLS GDV Y22 45 NNE ABR 25 WSW STC 40 NW EAU 50 S ESC 10 SE OSC MTC 35 NE FWA MTO ALN JEF FLV GRI 25 SE MHN 35 ENE AIA 81V BIL 45 SE LWT 85 NW MLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RDM 40 SE DLS ALW 40 WSW S80 45 NE BOI 35 S WEY MLD OWY 85 NNW WMC 4LW RDM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N OTH 40 NW DLS EPH 30 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW IPL 40 SE EDW 35 SE BIH 25 SW NFL 35 NNW RNO 30 SSW SVE 35 SSE RBL 30 SW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW GAD 40 SE BNA 30 S CKV 60 S HRO 30 NW FYV 30 ENE EMP 35 S HSI 25 WSW MCK 55 WSW GLD 40 N CAO 30 NW AMA 55 SSW CDS 25 ENE GGG 50 WNW JAN 20 WNW GAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 15 NNW ELM 15 ENE IPT 20 SSW MSV 20 NE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ORE AND SOUTHERN ID... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS ZONE TODAY. ...WI/LOWER MI... MCS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI IS MOVING INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SOME HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. ...IL/IND... REMNANT CLUSTER OF DECAYING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN IL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSING A RISK OF NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED AROUND 2000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IF NEW DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. THESE STORMS WOULD SPREAD INTO IND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ...SD/NEB/MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT... MAIN SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER NEB/SD...WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF LOW. A VERY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE CAP SLOWLY WEAKENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF WY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD BY 00Z...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. AMPLE CAPE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY LATE EVENING OVER EASTERN SD/NERN NEB...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO MN/IA OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO INCREASES. ...MT... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MT. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25-30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ...ORE/ID... UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA THIS MORNING...BUT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO ORE BY THIS EVENING. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN ORE AND SOUTHERN ID...WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...WITH RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTING A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ...CAROLINAS... VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST REMAIN RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALEX MAY POSE A RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 20:11:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 15:11:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408022010.i72KAO916225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022005 SWODY1 SPC AC 022004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S DTW LAF ALN COU STJ BBW CDR 45 NE DGW SHR 35 WNW MLS GDV DIK 45 NNE MBG 20 NNW STC 25 NNW RHI 70 W ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DLS 35 NW PUW 10 NNW CTB 35 S HVR 3HT PUC BCE 30 NE P38 60 WNW ELY 70 N LMT DLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL BTV 40 ENE BFD CMH 15 W LUK 40 ENE OWB 55 NE MKL 20 WSW MKL 15 NNW MEM 50 SW ARG SGF CNK 25 SW EAR 35 NNE MCK IML 40 N CAO HOB 50 S MAF AUS 45 SSW LFK BTR 45 N MOB ANB HSV 45 WNW CSV LOZ 30 WNW EKN 15 E AOO 20 SE AVP 10 E JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW OTH EUG 45 NNW EAT 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 20 WSW IPL NID 45 SSW TPH NFL 30 ENE SVE 45 WNW SVE 45 NW RBL 65 S EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT/WY EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...ERN MT/ERN WY EWD INTO THE SD/NERN NEB/IA... MAIN SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SE OF PHP...WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NWWD BACK ACROSS SRN MT AND NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS SD/NEB. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED...THOUGH ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY IN WRN WY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SD THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER AID THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SD. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO AND WIND DAMAGE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN SD/NERN NEB/IA...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AT 01Z IF CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO INCREASES. ...WI/MI/MN... NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UP INTO NRN WI. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD WITH THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY BACK BUILD INTO CENTRAL MN ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT DEEP LATER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING/SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER WI MCS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SOME HAIL ACROSS THE AREA. REFERENCE WW 687. ...WRN MT... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ID WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...30-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS AND LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. ...ORE/ID... UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NEWD INTO SRN WA AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WINDS. ...NV/UT/SRN UT... HIGH LEVEL IMPULSE WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL UT WITH A SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH ERN NV/UT. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY ORGANIZED INTO A LINE FROM NERN NV SWWD INTO WRN UT. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS...LARGER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND MID LEVEL WINDS PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE STORMS SPREAD NWD. ...IL/IND... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN IN SWWD INTO SRN IL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 30-35 KT MID/HIGH NWLY FLOW...STORMS HAVE MOVED SEWD AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL JET. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL...BUT THREAT WILL DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW. ...ERN CAROLINAS... OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALEX HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WEAK WIND PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT A TORNADO THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 01:06:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 20:06:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408030105.i7315f904735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030103 SWODY1 SPC AC 030101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW DBQ 20 WSW BRL 45 SW IRK 10 WSW FNB BBW 30 WSW CDR 30 S GCC 45 WNW 4BQ 30 SW GDV 45 SSE SDY 15 NE BIS 60 SE JMS 45 SSE AXN RST 30 WSW DBQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 10 NNE MPV ELM 15 SW FKL 25 ESE FDY 35 E MIE 40 WNW SDF 30 ENE PAH 25 NNW UNO 45 SSW OJC 35 SSW EAR 15 WNW MCK 25 WSW GLD 35 NNE CAO 55 NNE HOB 45 S MAF 15 E AUS 45 N LFT 45 NW CEW 40 S AUO 20 NE LGC RMG 30 SE CSV 40 SW 5I3 20 E CRW 30 NW CXY 20 NNW ABE 10 E JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW YUM 15 WNW LAS 25 SE EKO 50 NW OWY 85 SSE BNO 65 NNE SVE 35 ESE MHS 25 WSW MFR EUG 45 NNW EAT 40 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSED BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STORMS OVER NRN NEB WHICH HAVE RECENTLY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE NORTH OF BOUNDARY...ESSENTIALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY ROOTED AOA 850MB. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING WITH NEW CONVECTION NOW INCREASING OVER SRN SD FROM BRULE TO JERAULD COUNTIES. INTERPOLATING FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS...SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION. SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE POSSIBLY CLUSTERING INTO ANOTHER MCS AS IT PROPAGATES SEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND WITH TIME DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ZONE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN MT. ESELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS SERN MT INTO NWRN SD/SWRN ND LATE THIS EVENING. IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION...OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ...NWRN U.S... DIURNAL COOLING AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE EASED THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ORE...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS APPEARS LIMITED IN ITS ABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION. ...CAROLINAS... NNEWD DRIFT TO ALEX WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINA COAST LATE DAY1. INCREASING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION BUT MORE EFFICIENT SUPERCELLS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 06:02:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 01:02:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408030601.i7361g930156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030559 SWODY1 SPC AC 030557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF DIK 40 SW ABR 30 ENE MKT 35 E MSN 20 SSE CGX 10 WSW DNV 35 SSE SPI 45 NW COU TOP 30 WSW HUT 60 NW GCK 35 WSW IML 40 SW BFF 45 WSW GCC 30 NNE COD 10 NE BZN 40 W GTF 20 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT 25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 20 E JAN 15 ENE RMG 30 SW BLF 40 WSW BKW 30 W LOZ 35 SW CKV 30 NW DYR 55 NW POF 15 SSW VIH 50 N SGF 35 NE OKC 45 N CDS 25 SSE LBB 40 SW P07 ...CONT... 65 SW GBN 20 SSW PRC 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 30 N TWF 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 45 W PUW 40 NNE EPH 15 N EAT 10 ESE YKM 40 SSE RDM 70 SSW RDM 35 SE EUG 50 NNE PDX 30 ENE SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW MOT 20 NW JMS AXN 35 S CWA 35 SSW MBL 35 N MBS 70 ENE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NWD...THEN EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM NRN LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SEWD AND PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE ENABLING A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN OVER THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM NRN IL...WWD INTO CENTRAL NEB WHERE VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW/DRY LINE OVER SRN NEB BY 22Z. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGH BASED BUT WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN/LOWER AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM. STRONG VEERING PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...HOWEVER CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE. EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... PERSISTENT ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL FORCE MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS AOA 50F...AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WRN MT AROUND 00Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTION FORCING IT EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ALEX AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC. UNLESS ALEX TURNS MORE NLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SLIGHT RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS A CHANGE IN TRACK OCCURS. ...NERN U.S... STRENGTHENING UPPER JET IN BASE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRUSH NRN MOST PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. TODAY. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ACROSS REGION. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..DARROW.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 12:48:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 07:48:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408031247.i73ClI924676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031244 SWODY1 SPC AC 031242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 10 NE DIK 20 SW ABR 35 ENE MKT 35 E MSN 30 WSW SBN 15 SE DNV 10 SE ALN 35 ENE SZL TOP 35 N RSL 35 S MCK 35 WSW IML 30 SSE BFF 45 WSW GCC 25 E DLN 20 SSW MSO 45 N MSO 65 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW MOT 20 NW JMS AXN 35 S CWA 35 SSW MBL 35 N MBS 70 ENE OSC ...CONT... 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT 25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 20 E JAN 15 ENE RMG 30 SW BLF 40 WSW BKW 30 W LOZ 35 SW CKV 30 NW DYR 55 NW POF 15 SSW VIH 50 N SGF 35 NE OKC 45 N CDS 25 SSE LBB 40 SW P07 ...CONT... 65 SW GBN 20 SSW PRC 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 30 N TWF 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 45 W PUW 40 NNE EPH 15 N EAT 10 ESE YKM 40 SSE RDM 70 SSW RDM 35 SE EUG 50 NNE PDX 30 ENE SEA 25 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN IS FORECAST BETWEEN OMEGA-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS CANADA AND DOMINANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA /OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION WITH RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB AND THEN EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME /OBSERVED IN 12Z OMA/DVN SOUNDINGS/... DIABATIC HEATING AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /PRESENT FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. MCS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...BEING FEED BY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS TO THE S ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA. IF COMPLEX CAN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON... DEEPENING/WARMING OF INFLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASINGLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO THE W ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB LATER TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS /CURRENTLY OVER S-CNTRL MT INTO WRN WY AND OVER CNTRL CO/ TRANSLATE EWD INTO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AXIS AND AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO IA. CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SERN IA/NERN MO MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD ALONG WEAK SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. ...NRN ROCKIES... VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER /CURRENTLY OVER NERN ORE/ WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE ID PNHDL/FAR WRN MT AND INTO SRN ALBERTA TODAY. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES CORRESPONDING REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INTO CANADA PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG TRAILING EDGE OF THIS FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS WRN MT WITHIN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ...NC OUTER BANKS... PER 11Z TPC HURRICANE FORECAST/ADVISORY...CENTER OF ALEX IS EXPECTED PASS VERY NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TODAY...PRIOR TO ACCELERATING NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE-SPAWNED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST. NONETHELESS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID FOR MID TO LATE MORNING INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY /I.E. 100-150 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPES/ TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING WWD AROUND THE HURRICANE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1849. ...NORTHEASTERN STATES... LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG AND JUST S/E OF ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND ANY ONGOING STORMS LATER TODAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS MAY SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 16:21:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 11:21:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408031620.i73GKN926317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031617 SWODY1 SPC AC 031615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FRM 45 S RST DBQ MLI BRL 45 ENE OMA SUX YKN 20 NW FSD FRM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OLF DIK HON MKT MSN SBN HUF 40 W MDH COU TOP HLC SNY 81V SHR LVM 45 NW 3HT OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 3B1 AUG MPV BTV 25 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT 25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 20 E JAN 15 ENE RMG 30 SW BLF 40 WSW BKW 30 W LOZ 35 SW CKV 30 NW DYR 55 NW POF 15 SSW VIH 50 N SGF 35 NE OKC 50 NNE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 70 E PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 SE EPH 20 NE YKM 45 SE RDM 50 NNW LMT 40 S EUG 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 WSW BIS 10 NNE AXN 25 SW RHI 30 WSW MBL 10 S OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VT/NH/ME... ...SD/MN/IA/IL... COMPLEX AND ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY. INTENSE BOW ECHO NOW OVER SOUTHEAST SD IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. SLOW DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF STORMS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER IA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EASTWARD EXTENT OF THESE STORMS REMAINS A QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT TO PARTS OF NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN IND LATER TONIGHT. ...SD/NEB/IA/MO THIS EVENING... AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB...SOUTH OF CURRENT SD BOW ECHO...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES MAY EXCEED 4000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF FULL HEATING AND SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING OUT OF THE ROCKIES MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NEB. THESE STORMS WILL POSE AN INITIAL RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO OVERNIGHT. ...MT/SD/ND... EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN MT TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN OVER THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE ND/SD BORDERS BY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY /0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS/ SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...NEW ENGLAND... SMALL MCV OVER NORTHERN VT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO ME THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...NC... HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HAT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CELLULAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF TORNADOES NEAR EYEWALL AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF CENTER...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS. ..HART.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 20:07:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 15:07:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408032006.i73K6c906888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032004 SWODY1 SPC AC 032002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LSE 20 NW MSN 25 ESE JVL 15 NNW MMO 40 E MLI 50 W CID 50 WSW FOD 40 N MCW 15 WSW LSE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OLF DIK HON 20 NW MKT 20 NW MKT 35 NE VOK 10 NW MKE SBN 20 NE HUF 10 SW SLO 30 E COU 40 NE MKC 35 SW BIE 20 NNW MCK SNY 81V SHR LVM 45 NW 3HT OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HUL 10 NE BGR AUG 10 NNW PWM 20 SE MWN 15 S BML 45 WSW 3B1 55 NNE 3B1 30 SW CAR 20 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT 25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 35 NNW AYS 25 WSW CHS 20 ESE ECG 30 NE CHO 30 W LOZ 55 SW CKV 20 WNW DYR 55 NW POF TBN 30 NNW SGF 15 SE PNC 50 NNE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 70 E PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 SE EPH 20 NE YKM 45 SE RDM 50 NNW LMT 40 S EUG 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 WSW BIS 10 NNE AXN 25 SW RHI 30 WSW MBL 10 S OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IA...EXTREME SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF CNTRL ME... ...UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST... BOW ECHO WITH HISTORY OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT AROUND 45 KTS ALONG THE SCNTRL MN/NCNTRL IA BORDER. IT HAS NOT MADE A TURN TO THE RIGHT/SE AS EARLIER EXPECTED. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL WI AND THE AIR MASS BETWEEN THIS BOUNDARY AND THE WARM FRONT OVER IA HAS BECOME UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...THE SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NEWD INTO PARTS OF SRN WI. COMBO OF DRIER AIR AND LAKE BREEZE OVER NERN HALF OF WI WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE SEVERE THREAT THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...18Z DAVENPORT SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F AND MAINTENANCE OF UPPER 70S DEW POINTS...CINH IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED INITIATION GIVEN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE ABOVE TRENDS...PRIND THAT THE BOW ECHO SHOULD MOVE EWD...THEN GRADUALLY TURN/DEVELOP MORE SEWD ALONG H85-H3 THICKNESS LINES AND ALONG STRONGER CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED SELY ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA AND WILL LIKELY AUGMENT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE BOW. THUS...HIGHEST RISK OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM NERN/ECNTRL IA...SWRN WI AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN IL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD IN CNTRL IA AS CINH WEAKENS OWING TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO TRACK EWD INTO THE MDT RISK AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL PLAINS... LATEST MESOANALYSIS DENOTES A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS. THERE HAS BEEN VARYING AMOUNTS OF MIDLEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS NEB/CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY THESE FEATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 25-30 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR TOO...BUT THE TROPOSPHERE IS RATHER WARM. ...MAINE... LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL MAINE. MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND PRESENCE OF A WEAK MCV MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK IMPULSE IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS FROM SCNTRL MT INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF TSTMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS SERN MT AND NERN WY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD THIS EVENING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LACK OF STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. FARTHER W...MOUNTAIN TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO THIS EVENING. ...ERN CAROLINAS... MOREHEAD CITY VWP SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW HAS TURNED NLY AS HRCN ALEX ACCELERATES NEWD. THUS...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 01:36:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 20:36:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408040135.i741Z4905912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040131 SWODY1 SPC AC 040130 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0830 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SBN 10 WNW IND 20 SE DEC 40 WSW UIN 15 NW FNB 10 W OMA 45 SSW FOD 20 ENE CID 30 ESE DBQ RFD 35 ESE RFD 40 S CGX 45 S SBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E OLF 30 WSW DIK 35 WSW MBG 10 ESE HON 25 NE VOK 20 NW GRR 25 N MTC 35 W CLE 20 S CMH 45 SSW HUF 35 NW STL 10 SSW OJC 35 NW BVO 45 NNW GAG 35 NW CNK 10 NNW SNY 55 NNE CPR 30 N COD 20 W LWT 10 E OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 S SEM 30 SSE RMG 15 NNE SPA 20 ESE ECG 30 NE CHO 30 W LOZ 55 SW CKV 20 WNW DYR 55 NW POF TBN 30 NNW SGF 50 SW JLN 30 NE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 45 ENE PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NE EKO 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 NNW BNO 30 SE RDM 50 WNW RDM PDX 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 10 NE BIS 40 NNW ABR 25 SW RHI 35 NE MTW 35 SSW OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN-ERN IA/FAR NRN MO/PARTS OF SRN WI/MUCH OF CENTRAL-NRN IL INTO WRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SERN MT AND NERN WY ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... WNWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/ MIDWEST. WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB INTO CENTRAL KS WILL TRACK EWD TO NRN IL/NRN MO OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... UPPER TROUGH OVER MT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION. ...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL EWD TO NRN-ERN IND/WRN OH OVERNIGHT... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SRN WI JUST NORTH OF MSN...WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN IL /AROUND 30 S CGX/ AND WNWWD INTO SRN WI NEAR MSN. A SECOND LESS DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR NRN IL TO WRN-CENTRAL OH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS/BOW ECHO OVER ERN IA EXTENDED WWD TOWARD DSM. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000 J/KG OVER WRN OH TO 4500 J/KG OVER SERN IA/. AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONGOING DAMAGING BOW ECHOES ACROSS SRN WI AND ERN IA ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER VEERING WIND PROFILES /WLY 50 KT MID-LEVEL WIND ATOP 50 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO NRN IL/ AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THESE TWO BOW ECHOES MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE DAMAGING BOW ECHO AND MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD INTO NRN IND. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF BOW OVER FAR ERN IA/FAR NWRN IL AND AIR MASS ACROSS IND/WRN OH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTS THIS BOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WRN OH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO TO NRN IL... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER ERN NEB INTO WRN-CENTRAL IA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS. PRIOR TO THE MCS/S DEVELOPMENT...TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. DAMAGING BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. THESE BOWS WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA AND POTENTIALLY FAR NRN MO...AND ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT BOW MOVING INTO NRN IL. THIS EXPECTED BOW MAY REACH CENTRAL/NRN IND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN WI/SRN LOWER MI... ELEVATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN WI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD SRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. INCREASING LLJ NOSING INTO NRN IL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF WAA ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WHICH SHOULD ALSO AID IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS/NRN NEB... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DESTABILIZE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING...CURRENT LINE OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN ND/WRN SD TONIGHT. ...PORITONS CENTRAL-ERN KS... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS KS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER AREA 00Z RAOBS SUGGESTS MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SERN AZ/PORTIONS SRN NM... A COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PULSE...WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 01:41:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 20:41:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408040140.i741eC907744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040137 SWODY1 SPC AC 040136 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0836 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SBN 10 WNW IND 20 SE DEC 40 WSW UIN 15 NW FNB 10 W OMA 45 SSW FOD 20 ENE CID 30 ESE DBQ RFD 35 ESE RFD 40 S CGX 45 S SBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E OLF 30 WSW DIK 35 WSW MBG 10 ESE HON 25 NE VOK 20 NW GRR 25 N MTC 35 W CLE 20 S CMH 45 SSW HUF 35 NW STL 10 SSW OJC 35 NW BVO 45 NNW GAG 35 NW CNK 10 NNW SNY 55 NNE CPR 30 N COD 20 W LWT 10 E OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 S SEM 30 SSE RMG 15 NNE SPA 20 ESE ECG 30 NE CHO 30 W LOZ 55 SW CKV 20 WNW DYR 55 NW POF TBN 30 NNW SGF 50 SW JLN 30 NE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 45 ENE PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NE EKO 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 NNW BNO 30 SE RDM 50 WNW RDM PDX 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 10 NE BIS 40 NNW ABR 25 SW RHI 35 NE MTW 35 SSW OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN-ERN IA/FAR NRN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-NRN IL INTO WRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SERN MT AND NERN WY ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION... CORRECTED TO REMOVE SRN WI FROM MODERATE RISK HEADLINE ...SYNOPSIS... WNWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/ MIDWEST. WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB INTO CENTRAL KS WILL TRACK EWD TO NRN IL/NRN MO OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... UPPER TROUGH OVER MT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION. ...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL EWD TO NRN-ERN IND/WRN OH OVERNIGHT... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SRN WI JUST NORTH OF MSN...WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN IL /AROUND 30 S CGX/ AND WNWWD INTO SRN WI NEAR MSN. A SECOND LESS DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR NRN IL TO WRN-CENTRAL OH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS/BOW ECHO OVER ERN IA EXTENDED WWD TOWARD DSM. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000 J/KG OVER WRN OH TO 4500 J/KG OVER SERN IA/. AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONGOING DAMAGING BOW ECHOES ACROSS SRN WI AND ERN IA ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER VEERING WIND PROFILES /WLY 50 KT MID-LEVEL WIND ATOP 50 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO NRN IL/ AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THESE TWO BOW ECHOES MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE DAMAGING BOW ECHO AND MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD INTO NRN IND. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF BOW OVER FAR ERN IA/FAR NWRN IL AND AIR MASS ACROSS IND/WRN OH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTS THIS BOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WRN OH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO TO NRN IL... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER ERN NEB INTO WRN-CENTRAL IA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS. PRIOR TO THE MCS/S DEVELOPMENT...TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. DAMAGING BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. THESE BOWS WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA AND POTENTIALLY FAR NRN MO...AND ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT BOW MOVING INTO NRN IL. THIS EXPECTED BOW MAY REACH CENTRAL/NRN IND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN WI/SRN LOWER MI... ELEVATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN WI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD SRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. INCREASING LLJ NOSING INTO NRN IL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF WAA ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WHICH SHOULD ALSO AID IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS/NRN NEB... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DESTABILIZE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING...CURRENT LINE OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN ND/WRN SD TONIGHT. ...PORITONS CENTRAL-ERN KS... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS KS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER AREA 00Z RAOBS SUGGESTS MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SERN AZ/PORTIONS SRN NM... A COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PULSE...WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 12:48:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 07:48:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408041247.i74Clp911405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041245 SWODY1 SPC AC 041243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JHW 10 E DUJ 35 SE MGW 30 W BKW 45 N MSL 50 SW JBR 30 ESE FYV 30 NNE JLN 25 N COU 10 E DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 45 N REJ 35 S PHP 35 NNW MHN 30 S MHN 30 NNW GLD 25 SSE DEN 20 WSW DGW 45 WSW BIL 50 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE LRD 15 ESE NIR 40 SE AUS 20 W LFK 45 NNE LFK 30 SSW GGG 35 WNW TPL 70 E FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 65 S GBN 20 NE GBN 30 SW PRC 60 WNW GCN 15 NNE U24 45 ENE ENV 45 NW PIH 65 NE BOI 30 NNE BNO 25 S MHS 25 ENE ACV 15 ENE 4BK 25 ESE AST 15 NW CLM ...CONT... 50 N ISN 25 E PIR 15 ENE YKN 20 NNW FRM 10 SE LNR 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 25 W ART 20 SSW PSM ...CONT... 20 ESE NEL 50 NNE HKY 35 E ANB 25 E AGS 10 E GSB 20 NE HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOMINANT RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF ERN U.S. TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...MORNING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SEVERAL WEAK WAVES ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WWD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE THEN STRETCHES NWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG OH VALLEY PART OF FRONT AND LARGE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS WELL THAT PORTION OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE TWO WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMA/MCV/S THIS MORNING...ONE OVER SERN LOWER MI AND THE OTHER OVER NWRN IND. THESE FEATURES...IN PART... HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGELY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSING...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY. IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /DISPLACED SWD FROM MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY/...ESPECIALLY AS CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY. RATHER STRONG ZONAL WIND FIELDS OBSERVED ON THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING /NAMELY THE LOWEST 3-4KM AGL/ SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EVOLVING BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND E OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES /OBSERVED ON 12Z RAP/DNR SOUNDINGS/...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL/ERN MT SEWD ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALL AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ALONG WRN EDGE OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. 30-40KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...PACIFIC NW... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NEAR 47N AND 135W/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS WA/ORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/...CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASCENT ALONG WINDWARD SIDE OF CASCADES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..MEAD/BRIGHT.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 16:37:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 11:37:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408041637.i74Gb0924422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041634 SWODY1 SPC AC 041632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF REJ PHP MHN 15 SSW IML AKO FCL DGW SHR 40 NE WEY GTF 45 NE CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFD IPT CXY HGR EKN CSV MEM HRO SGF MVN LUK MFD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RDM DLS EPH 45 WSW GEG LWS 30 NNW BKE 55 NNW BNO RDM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW BUF 10 ESE ROC 35 SE UCA 10 NNW BID ...CONT... 30 SSW ACY 20 SW LYH 10 NNW AVL 55 E CHA HSV 40 SW HSV 25 NNE 0A8 35 N LGC 50 SE AND 30 W FLO 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 35 S LRD 30 NW NIR 40 SW CLL 25 WSW LFK 20 N TYR 20 WSW MWL 35 ESE MAF 75 S MRF ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 45 E U24 30 E MLD 10 SW IDA 30 WSW 27U 15 SSE BKE 40 SE LMT 35 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK 20 NW PIR 20 NNW ANW 50 SE GLD 20 NE AMA 25 SSW END 15 WNW CNU 35 NE MKC 25 NNW OMA 20 SSW SPW 30 WNW MCW 30 W DBQ 25 NNW MMO 15 ESE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WA/ORE... ...OH/PA/WV/MD... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL ROTATE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF LINE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV. 25-35 KNOT WESTERLY 500MB WINDS...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND REMNANT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MCS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON /REF WW 706/. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED...IT COULD REMAIN SEVERE INTO CENTRAL PA/CENTRAL MD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...KY/IN/IL/MO/AR/TN... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM OH CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN IND/IL. CLOUDS ARE THINNING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR...AND SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. ...MT/WY/SD/NEB/CO... SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FROM WESTERN NEB INTO EASTERN MT. FULL SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT FIRST...THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY AND NORTHEAST CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM CENTRAL WY NORTHWARD WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...WA/ORE... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN WA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE. ..HART/BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:10:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:10:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408042009.i74K9k928343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042004 SWODY1 SPC AC 042002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF REJ PHP MHN 15 SSW IML AKO FCL DGW SHR 40 S LVM BTM 25 ESE S80 50 NNE BNO 15 NW BNO 35 SW RDM 10 NE DLS 10 WNW EPH 45 NNE 4OM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MVN 40 NW HTS 30 E PKB 25 SE FKL 20 ENE IPT 25 SW AVP 25 WNW ILG 15 W DCA 30 NE SSU CSV MEM HRO SGF MVN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ACY 20 SW LYH 10 NNW AVL 55 E CHA HSV 40 SW HSV 25 NNE 0A8 35 N LGC 50 SE AND 30 W FLO 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 10 ESE ROC 35 SE UCA 10 NNW BID ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK 20 NW PIR 20 NNW ANW 50 SE GLD 20 NE AMA 25 SSW END 15 WNW CNU 35 NE MKC 25 NNW OMA 20 SSW SPW 30 WNW MCW 30 W DBQ 25 NNW MMO 15 ESE DTW ...CONT... 35 S LRD 30 NW NIR 40 SW CLL 25 WSW LFK 20 N TYR 20 WSW MWL 35 ESE MAF 75 S MRF ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 45 E U24 30 E MLD 10 SW IDA 30 WSW 27U 15 SSE BKE 40 SE LMT 35 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WWD TO THE OH/TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS... A LINE OF TSTMS HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS BECAME FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE WLY FLOW REGIME AND SEGMENTS OF THE LINE BOWED. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME STEEP ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND IT APPEARS THAT TSTMS WILL MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS THEY CROSS THE RIDGE TOPS INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL PA...ERN WV PNHDL...WRN/CNTRL MD AND THE NRN VA. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE WLY FLOW REGIME IS STRONGER. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF ISOLD SPIN-UP IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP VCNTY E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL PA. STATE COLLEGE VWP RECENTLY EXHIBITED A HODOGRAPH WITH 150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND THERE WERE REPORTS OF A BRIEF TORNADO BY A CITIZEN IN CLEARFIELD COUNTY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREATS WILL EXTEND. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN SUSTENANCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LINE OF TSTMS IS THE WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OWING TO AFFECTS OF HRCN ALEX FAR OFFSHORE. THIS COULD CAUSE THE TSTMS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING. ...OH/TN VLYS... THOUGH A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE OH RVR...MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH...ROUGHLY FROM NRN OH TO CNTRL IND...THEN WWD INTO NRN MO. STRONGEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE KY COALFIELDS INTO THE KY LAKES REGION. PERSISTENT MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING FROM SRN WV INTO SRN/ERN KY. THIS REGION RESIDES ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND LOUISVILLE/JACKSON VWP SHOW 30-35 KTS OF WLY FLOW AROUND 4-5 KM. THUS...A FEW TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. FARTHER WEST...INSOLATION HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW. AIR MASS...HOWEVER...HAS RECOVERED NWD TO THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH DIGGING TROUGH...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL AS CINH ERODES. STORMS WILL THEN MIGRATE SSEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VLYS. MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS NWRN WY ATTM PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FROM SCNTRL MT INTO ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH RIDGING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS HAS MAINTAINED 50S DEW POINTS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS CINH IS ERODED...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MIDLEVEL JET STREAK MOVING INTO SRN ORE ATTM IS PROVIDING A LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT ENHANCED TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS CINH ERODING GRADUALLY ACROSS THE REGION AND MOUNTAIN TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE VLYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... WEAK MCV MOVING NWD THROUGH CNTRL AZ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TSTMS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF MONSOONAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN AZ INTO SRN UT...SWRN CO AND NWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOPES OF CNTRL NM MOUNTAINS. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 01:16:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 20:16:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408050115.i751Fp917122@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050111 SWODY1 SPC AC 050109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SBY 15 WNW NHK 20 SSW DCA DCA 20 NNW ILG 10 SSE ABE 25 N TTN 10 SSE EWR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW FCA 35 WNW MSO 30 ENE S80 40 NE BKE 20 NW BNO 30 SW RDM 10 N DLS 10 WNW EPH 45 NNE 4OM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 3DU 30 S GTF 45 N LWT 70 ENE HVR 60 N OLF 30 E GDV 40 S REJ 35 ESE 81V 40 WSW GCC 40 W SHR 35 S LVM 35 ESE 27U 25 N 27U 35 SSW 3DU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BFF 30 NNE SNY 50 E AKO 35 ENE LAA 15 SW EHA 15 ENE DHT 30 SW CAO 10 SSW TAD 20 N COS 15 WSW CYS 30 WSW BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK 20 NW PIR 10 NNW ANW 30 S MCK 10 N LBL 70 N CDS 35 NNW FSI 50 SW TUL 50 NNE MKO 40 NW TBN 20 WSW STL 25 ENE SLO 25 W LUK 30 SE CMH 30 SSW FKL 40 SW ELM 25 NE MSV 10 NNW BID ...CONT... 20 NNE ECG 25 NE RDU 25 ESE SPA 30 NNW ATL 20 ESE GLH 35 S FTW 40 SSE BGS 30 WNW FST 45 SW MRF ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 30 E U24 30 E MLD 35 WNW IDA 40 NW SUN 10 W OWY 45 WNW WMC 30 SE MHS 20 WSW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 15 WSW ABY 10 SSE MCN 30 W AGS 30 E AGS 15 E CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO NERN WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S.... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS EWD PROGRESSION AT ROUGHLY 30KT ACROSS THE DELMARVA. CURRENT SPEED SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ULTIMATELY SPREADING SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL UNDER WAY WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW OBSERVED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF CO...WHILE POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SWRN MT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW INDICATES FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION PROFILE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY 1000J/KG. AS LLJ INCREASES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL MT BEFORE SPREADING INTO ERN MT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...NWRN U.S... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE ID PANHANDLE INTO WRN MT LATER THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST HIGH BASED MULTI-CELL OR PERHAPS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DARROW.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 05:52:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 00:52:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408050551.i755pK903882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050549 SWODY1 SPC AC 050548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 40 N REJ 45 NE CDR 35 WSW CDR 15 W DGW 60 SW GCC 40 SSW BIL 15 N BZN 30 SW 3DU 25 WSW S06 60 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRE FLO 35 W SOP 25 S DAN 60 SW RIC 25 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 45 ENE JMS 35 WNW ATY 35 SSW MHE 40 NNE LBF 40 ENE GLD 35 SSE LBL 35 SW LTS 50 NNW DAL 35 W TXK 40 WSW PBF 25 SSW JBR 30 SSE CGI 35 SW OWB 10 SSE LEX 35 ENE SSU 30 SSE BWI 20 NE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW YUM 25 N IGM 15 E U24 30 SE MLD 25 WSW IDA 25 NNW SUN 65 ESE BNO 40 SE LMT 35 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER MT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE IN MAINTAINING MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LLJ ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID MID DAY THERMALS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRIOR TO MAIN ZONE OF ASCENT THAT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN INTO CENTRAL MT BY PEAK HEATING. DEEP CONVECTION WILL BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAINS RATHER EARLY THEN MOVE EWD BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. WITH TIME STORM MERGERS AND FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MT TOWARD WRN ND LATE IN THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM SERN MT INTO SERN WY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES. ...CAROLINAS... SFC FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS SEWD IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. SRN EXTENT OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS WIND SHIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THIS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AID DESTABILIZATION RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG. IT APPEARS FRONTAL ZONE WILL FOCUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT AS IT SURGES SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW/LEVIT.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 12:46:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 07:46:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408051245.i75Cjh931562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051243 SWODY1 SPC AC 051242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 15 W Y22 30 NE CDR 10 N BFF 35 SE DGW 55 WSW GCC 50 SE LVM 40 SW 27U 45 SSE S80 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 45 ESE CLT 15 SE GSO 55 E DAN 20 WNW ORF 30 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 45 ENE JMS 35 WNW ATY 35 SSW MHE 30 NNE EAR 40 ENE HLC 30 N GAG 35 SW LTS 30 NNE MWL 40 ESE PRX 10 ESE HOT 40 SW JBR 40 SSW PAH 30 NNW HOP 35 SW LEX 25 SW MGW 35 NNW BWI 15 NE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 20 NNW BLH 50 N IGM 25 ESE CDC 30 SSE MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 35 N 4LW 70 SW RDM 15 WNW DLS 15 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SERN VA SWD ACROSS ERN NC AND NERN SC... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG/E OF CASCADE RANGE/ MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COASTS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE 80-90KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ FROM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF EVOLVING JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL ID INTO WRN MT. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PROMOTE COLD POOL GENERATION. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING MCS WILL EXIST TONIGHT WITH CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS OR STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN WY INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/ DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...CAROLINAS... CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ALONG COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH /OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL OH VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL REGION IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. AS REMNANTS OF OH/TN VALLEY CONVECTION AND RELATED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL OR SURFACE FRONT. MODESTLY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD/BRIGHT.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 13:21:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 08:21:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408051320.i75DKv913008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051319 SWODY1 SPC AC 051242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 15 W Y22 30 NE CDR 10 N BFF 35 SE DGW 55 WSW GCC 50 SE LVM 40 SW 27U 45 SSE S80 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 45 ESE CLT 15 SE GSO 55 E DAN 20 WNW ORF 30 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 45 ENE JMS 35 WNW ATY 35 SSW MHE 30 NNE EAR 40 ENE HLC 30 N GAG 35 SW LTS 30 NNE MWL 40 ESE PRX 10 ESE HOT 40 SW JBR 40 SSW PAH 30 NNW HOP 35 SW LEX 25 SW MGW 35 NNW BWI 15 NE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 20 NNW BLH 50 N IGM 25 ESE CDC 30 SSE MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 35 N 4LW 70 SW RDM 15 WNW DLS 15 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SERN VA SWD ACROSS ERN NC AND NERN SC... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG/E OF CASCADE RANGE/ MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COASTS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE 80-90KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ FROM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF EVOLVING JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL ID INTO WRN MT. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PROMOTE COLD POOL GENERATION. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING MCS WILL EXIST TONIGHT WITH CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS OR STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN WY INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/ DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...CAROLINAS... CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ALONG COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH /OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL OH VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL REGION IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. AS REMNANTS OF OH/TN VALLEY CONVECTION AND RELATED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL OR SURFACE FRONT. MODESTLY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD/BRIGHT.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 16:37:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 11:37:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408051636.i75Gat903742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051633 SWODY1 SPC AC 051631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN Y22 40 ENE CDR BFF DGW SHR 45 SE LVM 27U S80 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35 E AHN 30 WNW AND AVL RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW IPL 40 NE TRM 50 N IGM 15 E CDC 25 S MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 25 NW 4LW 70 SW RDM 25 NW DLS 35 SSE SEA 15 S UIL ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20 ESE HON 25 N HLC 25 NW GAG 20 E CDS 20 NW FTW 40 ESE PRX 10 ESE HOT 40 SSW PAH 20 WNW EKN 15 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CAROLINAS... UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM KY/TN...ACROSS NORTHERN GA...INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...EFFECTIVE FRONT LIES FROM SOUTHEAST VA INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC/NORTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF VA/NC/SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN TN APPROACHES. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH CAPE VALUES AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST A RISK OF WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE OVER EASTERN NC/SC...AND WESTWARD INTO GA/AL/MS. WEAKER FLOW ALOFT IN THESE REGIONS SUGGEST A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO SOUTHWARD INTO NM...WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MAINTAINING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE REGIONS OF CO/NM...WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH PARENT TROUGH OFF THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH 06/12Z. LEAD WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL PIVOT NEWD TOWARD NRN ID/NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE OUT OF ONGOING STORMS WITH CONTINUED HEATING ACROSS NRN ID/NWRN MT. MEANWHILE...75KT JET ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE NEWD...WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SWRN MT BY AFTERNOON IN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTIVE STORMS LIKELY FORMING ACROSS SWRN MT WILL TRACK ENEWD AROUND 30KT IN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG/. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT TRAVERSING WRN MT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH CONVECTIVE GUSTS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 65KT OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 9C/KM AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. SEPARATE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BIG HORNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NRN/ERN WY. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURES FALL ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH 06/06Z. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS /60-70KT/ AND AMPLE MOISTURE /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK EWD OFF THE MTNS...PERHAPS INTO WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE BY LATE EVENING. ..HART/BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 19:29:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 14:29:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408051928.i75JSM921852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051925 SWODY1 SPC AC 051924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 20 W Y22 10 SE CDR 35 W SNY 15 W CYS 25 NW DGW SHR 45 ENE WEY 35 SE 27U 30 ENE S80 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 45 ENE MCN 20 ENE AHN 20 W RWI 25 SSE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 45 SE EED 50 N IGM 50 WNW MLF 50 SW MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 25 NW 4LW 70 SW RDM 25 NW DLS 35 SSE SEA 15 S UIL ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20 ESE HON 25 N HLC 25 NW GAG 20 E CDS 20 NW FTW 40 E PRX 25 WSW MKL 10 SSW 5I3 25 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...DEEP SOUTH-SERN STATES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIAN CREST...MOVING EWD AT AROUND 35 KTS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF TSTMS. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN STRENGTHENING ALONG LEE-TROUGH OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NERN GA. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE SC/NC COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...VWPS FROM GREER AND RALEIGH SHOW 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MORE LIKELY SEVERE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR LINE SEGMENTS TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH WNWLY MEAN FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL SCALE BOWS GIVING WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING VCNTY E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT/OUTFLOWS FROM NRN AL INTO CNTRL MS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN FARTHER NORTHEAST. GIVEN THAT STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/SUPPORT PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TSTMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR...THOUGH....WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...NRN ROCKIES... SEVERE THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET TRANSLATING NEWD INTO SRN ID ATTM. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NEWD...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE/PVA WILL OVERSPREAD WRN/CNTRL MT. CBS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN SWRN MT AND WILL LIKELY GROW AS THE ENHANCED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z SOUNDING FROM GREAT FALLS WAS CAPPED AND SUGGESTS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING FOR A SURFACE PARCEL OF 80/54 WEAKENS THE CINH TO 60 J/KG AND GIVEN INCREASED FORCING IT IS CONCEIVABLE TSTMS WILL ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE VALLEYS WHERE MLCAPES OF 1800 J/KG WILL EXIST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 KTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD INTO CNTRL MT LATER IN THE EVENING. ...NRN HIGH/CNTRL PLAINS... UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARE MAINTAINING ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED NW OF CIRRUS CLOUD CANOPY OVER SERN WY. CBS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE BIG HORNS AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR SWD THROUGH CO...GIVEN MORE INTENSE HEATING AND STRONGEST HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXISTING ACROSS WY/MT...HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LONGER-LIVED CELLS PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF ERN WY INTO SERN MT. THESE TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO ADJACENT WRN SD/NEB LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 00:54:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 19:54:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408060053.i760rW917822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060051 SWODY1 SPC AC 060049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 20 W Y22 30 NNE RAP 50 NW CDR 35 NW DGW 45 SSE SHR 50 ENE COD 45 SSE LVM 30 SW BZN 25 E 3DU 35 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 50 N IGM 50 WNW MLF 15 N ENV 25 NW TWF 55 S MSO 45 S S06 25 SW LWS 45 E DLS 55 NNW DLS 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20 ESE HON 25 N HLC 25 NW GAG 30 ESE CDS 45 W MWL 10 SW TYR 55 E MLU 25 NNE 0A8 20 NW AHN 20 S RDU 25 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND NERN WY... ...MT/NERN WY... EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING CNTRL MT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM TFX SUPPORTS THIS WITH A STRONG BACKING WIND PROFILE AT MID LEVELS...WHILE GGW STILL DISPLAYS STRONG WARM ADVECTION THROUGH 700MB. DOWNSTREAM...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE OVER CENTRAL/NERN MT BEFORE SPREADING INTO WRN ND LATE TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NERN WY WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 05:39:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 00:39:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408060539.i765d7908630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060536 SWODY1 SPC AC 060535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 30 N DIK 40 NE RAP 35 WSW RAP 15 SSE GCC 45 W SHR 20 SE BZN 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 50 NNE TRM 35 SE LAS 10 E SGU 15 SE MLF 40 W OGD 20 N PIH 50 WSW MQM 65 SW 27U 50 NW BOI 50 NNE 4LW 45 NNE MFR 10 WSW PDX 25 NNE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW INL 15 WSW STC 25 S SPW 30 NW TOP 40 NNE OKC 40 E SPS 25 N ACT 20 NNE BPT 30 W GPT 20 N PNS 15 NNW MAI 40 NE MGR 35 N SAV 25 NNW CRE 20 ENE GSB 20 SW ORF 20 NNE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN MT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 18Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BEFORE TURING SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IT APPEARS WEAK RIDGING OVER ERN MT WILL TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN SPITE OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE...IT APPEARS NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND FORCING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WA/ORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND APPROACH WRN MT AROUND 00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MASS FIELDS SUGGEST THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH EWD MOVEMENT/ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE INTO WRN MT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ACROSS MT...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL MT BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH 00Z MODELS DO NOT DEPICT SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...VERY COOL MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...H5 TEMPS FROM MINUS 14-18 WILL SPREAD ACROSS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S...YIELDING SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY EARLY ACTIVITY WHILE DAMAGING WINDS COULD EVOLVE OVER THE PLAINS WITH ANY ORGANIZED MCS-TYPE EPISODE DURING THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 12:40:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 07:40:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408061239.i76Cdw908527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061237 SWODY1 SPC AC 061235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW MOT 50 W DVL 60 NNE ABR 55 ENE PIR 20 WNW PHP 30 NW RAP 20 NNE GCC 40 WNW SHR 20 SE BZN 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 45 NE BFD 25 E LBE 30 ESE MFD 20 ENE TOL 55 SE OSC ...CONT... 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 45 ESE FOD 50 W LWD 40 NNW TOP 25 NE PNC 40 E SPS 55 E CLL 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 20 NNE DLN 70 E BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A LEAD IMPULSE...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS WA/ORE LATER TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER MT BY SATURDAY. ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AND COOL AIR WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THIS REGION. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL DRIFT SWD INTO FL TODAY. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT HAS INTERMINGLED AND MERGED WITH THE LEE-TROUGH FROM WEST TX NWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS BENEATH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT. ...DAKOTAS... SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LLJ ACT ON NARROW PLUME OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ROOTED WELL ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW HAIL REPORTS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY SPREADING EWD ATOP RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MN. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED TSTMS LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD. FCST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND WIND IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. ...ID/MT/NERN WY... NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE NRN ROCKIES APPEARS TO BE LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS NRN CA AND NWRN NV EARLY TODAY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE OF 300-1300 J/KG FROM NRN ID ESEWD TO THE MT/WY BORDER. HIGHER INSTABILITY IS FCST FROM NERN WY INTO ERN MT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW/DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERAL LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...MAY EVOLVE FROM LATE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION AND POSE A HAIL AND WIND HAZARD WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE MCS SPREADING EAST INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ...TX/HIGH PLAINS... LEE TROUGH/RESIDUAL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BACKGROUND SUBSIDENCE AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST ONLY AN ISOLD STRONG WIND GUST OR HAIL REPORT MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...FL... COLD FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO FL IS UNUSUAL FOR AUGUST. DESPITE LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...A FEW STRONG TSTMS AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT AS CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACT ON A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PENINSULA. ..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 16:45:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 11:45:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408061644.i76Gi8923426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061642 SWODY1 SPC AC 061640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW MOT 50 W DVL 60 SSW JMS 55 ENE PIR 30 NW MHN 40 NW IML 20 W SNY 15 WNW SHR 20 SE BZN 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 35 S 27U 75 E BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 35 E FRM 35 SSW SPW 20 NE CNK 40 S PNC 25 NNW ACT 50 ENE CLL 20 W 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF THREE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NWRN STATES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ND TOWARD NRN MN...WITH ASSOCIATED ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN ND CONTINUING INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INLAND ACROSS WA AND NRN ID TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES UNTIL TONIGHT. A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM SERN MT ACROSS ERN WY INTO ERN CO. AIR MASS FROM NRN ID ACROSS MT HAS EXHIBITED SOME DRYING SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... STRONG HEATING AND DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER ERN WA INTO NRN ID/NWRN MT AS THE PACIFIC NW SYSTEM MOVES EWD. FARTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SERN MT INTO ERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP AND PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-35 KT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ...FL PENINSULA... COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN FL WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS PRESENT SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION HAS RESULTED IN SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ...AZ... VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN PHX AND TUS SOUNDINGS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES. A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND THIS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ONSET OF STRONG HEATING TODAY. THIS CLOUD EDGE MAY ESTABLISH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL AZ. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ALONG POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 20:14:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 15:14:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408062014.i76KE7919041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062008 SWODY1 SPC AC 062006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 50 W DVL 60 WNW JMS 40 NE MBG 30 NE PIR 35 W VTN 30 NW MHN 40 NW IML 20 W SNY 20 NNW WRL 15 NNE WEY 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 35 E FRM 35 SSW SPW 20 NE CNK 40 S PNC 25 NNW ACT 50 ENE CLL 20 W 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI ...CONT... 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 35 S 27U 75 E BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES... ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE OBS AND 18Z GREAT FALLS SOUNDING SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S. AS A RESULT...AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN ID RECENTLY. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT. CBS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN MT/ID MOUNTAINS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED GIVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. FARTHER EAST...TSTMS DEVELOPING ON THE WY MOUNTAINS AND BLACK HILLS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF ERN WY...SCNTRL/SERN MT...WRN NEB PNHDL AND WRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS AROUND 35 KTS AND A SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACROSS NERN MT AND WRN ND...SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING THE DIURNAL WIND FIELDS...MAINTAINING A VEERED WLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE DOMINATING THE AREA ATTM. TSTMS MAY APPROACH FROM SCNTRL/SERN MT LATER TONIGHT...AND COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL ND/NWRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. GIVEN A STORM...LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK. ...NRN PLAINS/RED RVR VLY AREA... ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN ND AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS RESIDE IN A RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPES. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED. NONETHELESS...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...DESERT SW... MOST VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ON NRN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS NRN/NWRN AZ. 18Z FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT A FEW LONGER LIVED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 50-55 KT HIGH LEVEL FLOW. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. A LATER START TO THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM CONSIDERABLY AND 18Z TUCSON SOUNDING USING A 91/61 PARCEL EXHIBITED SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILES...ISOLD MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY. ...W TX... PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/TROUGH ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY MAY OFFSET WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO SUPPORT ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL FAVOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS FL. GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 21:34:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 16:34:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408062133.i76LXo918977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062123 SWODY1 SPC AC 062121 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0421 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 062130Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 50 W DVL 60 WNW JMS 40 NE MBG 30 NE PIR 35 W VTN 30 NW MHN 40 NW IML 20 W SNY 20 NNW WRL 15 NNE WEY 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HOB 20 NE CVS 15 W DHT 60 NNE AMA 45 SE AMA 45 SE LBB 55 E HOB 50 ENE HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 35 S 27U 75 E BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 35 E FRM 35 SSW SPW 20 NE CNK 40 S PNC 25 NNW ACT 50 ENE CLL 20 W 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF W TX... AMENDED TO ADD SLGT RISK FOR PARTS OF TX PNHDL/W TX ...PARTS OF W TX... STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY ORIENTED N-S ACROSS W TX. SBCAPES TO 4000 J/KG AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OWING TO STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A BRIEF ISOLD SPIN-UP WILL BE POSSIBLE. ***REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM 2000 UTC*** ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE OBS AND 18Z GREAT FALLS SOUNDING SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S. AS A RESULT...AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN ID RECENTLY. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT. CBS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN MT/ID MOUNTAINS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED GIVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. FARTHER EAST...TSTMS DEVELOPING ON THE WY MOUNTAINS AND BLACK HILLS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF ERN WY...SCNTRL/SERN MT...WRN NEB PNHDL AND WRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS AROUND 35 KTS AND A SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACROSS NERN MT AND WRN ND...SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING THE DIURNAL WIND FIELDS...MAINTAINING A VEERED WLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE DOMINATING THE AREA ATTM. TSTMS MAY APPROACH FROM SCNTRL/SERN MT LATER TONIGHT...AND COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL ND/NWRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. GIVEN A STORM...LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK. ...NRN PLAINS/RED RVR VLY AREA... ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN ND AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS RESIDE IN A RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPES. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED. NONETHELESS...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...DESERT SW... MOST VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ON NRN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS NRN/NWRN AZ. 18Z FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT A FEW LONGER LIVED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 50-55 KT HIGH LEVEL FLOW. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. A LATER START TO THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM CONSIDERABLY AND 18Z TUCSON SOUNDING USING A 91/61 PARCEL EXHIBITED SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILES...ISOLD MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS FL. GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 00:44:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 19:44:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408070043.i770hw913527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070041 SWODY1 SPC AC 070039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE COD 35 SE LVM 25 SSW 3HT 25 SSE LWT 75 NNE BIL 45 WSW MLS 55 NNE SHR 20 NW SHR 25 NNE COD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MAF 35 NE HOB 40 SSE CVS 35 E TCC 40 WNW AMA 10 E AMA 25 E PVW 45 SSE LBB 55 N MAF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE RRT 40 WSW AXN 20 WNW BKX 25 SW ANW 30 WNW MHN 40 E CDR 20 SSW PHP 50 N ABR 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 25 NNE EED 30 W CDC 45 E DPG 25 NNE MLD 45 SW MQM 50 SW 27U 65 WSW BKE 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 20 NNE ELO 35 ESE MKT 50 SW FOD 25 WNW MHK 15 SE OKC 20 SE FTW 50 ENE CLL 15 WNW 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF W TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL MT... ...DAKOTAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS SERN ND AND ERN SD...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION...A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGLY VEERED AND THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELL STORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY...A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...W TX... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SEWD ON THE CAPROCK. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CONVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH A SMALL 700 MB JET PUNCHING INTO NW TX. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHICH IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS W TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM ERN NM TO CNTRL TX. DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH. ...SCNTRL MT... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE MT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NE WY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT) IN PLACE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 06:03:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 01:03:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408070602.i7762U907936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070559 SWODY1 SPC AC 070558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT 50 S FAR 35 NNW YKN 50 NE BUB 20 SW BBW 25 E SNY 35 NNW BFF 30 E 4BQ 65 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MQT 20 N AUW 40 E DSM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 10 N SPS 20 ENE SEP 20 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 70 NW GBN IGM 50 S SGU 30 NNE U17 30 NE CNY 35 NNW CAG 15 NNW RWL 50 NW CPR 20 SW SHR 50 SE BIL 20 WSW 3HT 15 WSW HLN 40 S MSO 15 S S06 60 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEB... ...NRN PLAINS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL BUT IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE...A BRIEF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...NEB/KS... FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEB AND KS...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NCNTRL NEB. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGLY VEERED AND THIS MAY CREATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN NEB. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IF STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN WCNTRL NEB/NW KS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 12:31:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 07:31:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408071230.i77CUH916795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071228 SWODY1 SPC AC 071226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 10 SW TVF 20 ENE AXN 40 ESE BKX 35 N BUB 20 NW LBF 20 SE SNY 50 ESE CYS 40 SW BFF 45 SE 81V 30 E 4BQ 25 NNW MLS 65 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 70 NW GBN IGM 50 S SGU 30 NNE U17 45 NW GJT 30 SW CPR 45 SSE SHR 45 NE COD 40 E LVM 15 WSW HLN 40 S MSO 15 S S06 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 40 E MQT 35 N MSN 40 E DSM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 25 SE FSI 35 NE ACT 25 WSW GLS ...CONT... 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A WRN RIDGE/CNTRL U.S. TROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT WWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/SRN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NRN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING FROM MT/WY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEB BY LATER TONIGHT. MODERATE PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM MT TO THE WRN DAKOTAS/ERN WY BY EVENING AND BE SITUATED FROM NWRN MN TO NERN CO BY EARLY SUNDAY. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... WV LOOP INDICATED A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MOVING OVER WRN MT EARLY TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS IMPULSE...PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF LARGE MIDWEST ANTICYCLONE HAS TRANSPORTED MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS...STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-35KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS STRONGER FORCING AND WIND FIELDS SPREAD EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND FRONT. LINEAR ORGANIZATION NEAR THE FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING. STRONGER CAP AND LESS FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING MT/ND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEB PNHDL AND ERN WY. NONETHELESS...A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS INITIATING NEAR DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... FAVORABLE MOISTURE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...AND HEATING BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE RIDGE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN...FRONT RANGE...AND HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION FROM CO TO FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS BUT OVERALL HAZARD APPEARS TOO RANDOM/DISORGANIZED TO SUPPORT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 16:41:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 11:41:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408071641.i77Gf3930760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071639 SWODY1 SPC AC 071637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL GFK 55 W AXN BKX 35 N BUB 20 NW LBF 20 SE SNY 50 ESE CYS 40 SW BFF 45 SE 81V 30 E 4BQ 25 NNW MLS 65 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 NNE GBN 40 SE IGM 60 WNW GCN 30 NNE U17 55 SE RKS 45 ESE DGW 15 NW 81V 45 SSW MLS 80 E LWT 20 SE GTF 50 NE FCA ...CONT... 85 E ELO 35 NW RHI 40 S LSE 25 NNW FOD 45 S EAR 20 SW END 35 S SPS 20 WNW AUS 25 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 25 WSW MSV 40 W ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. WEAKER LEAD SYSTEM FROM EXTREME ERN MT SSWWD INTO ERN WY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD AND WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY VORTICITY MAX MOVING ACROSS NWRN MT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO ERN MT BY 00Z AND INTO WRN ND TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER ERN MT WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE ERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL NEB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SD/ERN MT INTO SRN ND INDICATING STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF WELL-MIXED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 12Z ETA/RUC AND 09Z SREF GUIDANCE ALL PROVIDE CONSISTENT GUIDANCE ON PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BUILDING SWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...WIND PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO ENHANCE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... AMPLE MOISTURE PERSISTS NEAR LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING COUPLES WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT WEAK WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN TX... A SMALL MCS IS MOVING SWD INTO SRN TX THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH IS INTERSECTING REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF CRP TO NEAR SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR IF COLD POOL IS ABLE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND PROMOTES CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. ...NEW ENGLAND... VERY COLD MID LEVEL LOW WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C IS LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. LOW TOP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO DEVELOP. SEE SWOMCD 1912 FOR MORE DETAILS. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 19:54:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 14:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408071953.i77JrE926215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071951 SWODY1 SPC AC 071949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL GFK 55 W AXN BKX 35 N BUB 40 NNW BBW 40 WSW MHN 15 SW AIA 45 W CDR 45 SE 81V 45 WNW REJ 55 SE GDV 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 35 NW RHI 40 S LSE 25 NNW FOD 45 S EAR 20 SW END 35 S SPS 20 WNW AUS 25 SW PSX ...CONT... 65 SSW GBN 20 NNE GBN 40 SE IGM 60 WNW GCN 30 NNE U17 55 SE RKS 20 SE DGW 20 ENE GCC 45 SSW MLS 80 E LWT 20 SE GTF 50 NE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 25 WSW MSV 40 W ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... 19Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE BORDER OF MT...ND AND SD SWWD INTO NRN WY. AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TREND OF WEAKENING INHIBITION. TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT FROM WRN ND INTO SERN MT AND GIVEN APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THESE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF SD/ND THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH INCREASING WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW TO 30 KTS IS AUGMENTING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF SD/ND BY MID-EVENING. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND SEWD THROUGH SD AND NRN NEB AND A TSTM CLUSTER COULD EVOLVE AND PROPAGATE ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL THREAT. FARTHER N...AIR MASS HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM MORNING CLOUDS...BUT INSOLATION WILL BE WEAKER AND TSTMS THAT APPROACH FROM THE WEST MAY WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH THE RED RVR. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONGEST UPSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO AND ERN NM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS...WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW OVER WY. DIURNAL TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CO/NM MOUNTAINS AND WILL LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KILOMETERS IS RATHER WEAK AS EVIDENCED BY THE GRANADA AND TUCUMCARI PROFILERS /0-6KM VALUES AOB 20 KTS/. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. NONETHELESS...ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH. ...NEW ENGLAND... BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 50-55F BENEATH MINUS 20C H5 COLD POCKET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND ANY GIVEN UPDRAFT WILL NOT LAST LONG. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HOWEVER...ISOLD STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING. ...DEEP S TX... MCS THAT MOVED SEWD INTO SCNTRL TX EARLY TODAY HAS DISSIPATED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE MOVING SWD THROUGH SCNTRL TX AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM DEL RIO EWD TO JUST WEST OF VICTORIA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS ACROSS DEEP S TX REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ...THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS DEEP S TX THROUGH THE EVENING. ..RACY.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 00:55:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 19:55:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408080054.i780si908678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080053 SWODY1 SPC AC 080051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 20 NNW FAR 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 15 WSW ANW 20 WNW MHN 35 NE AIA 20 NNW CDR 15 NW RAP 25 WSW Y22 40 N DIK 55 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW EHA 25 SW LAA 30 E LIC 35 SSE SNY 40 E SNY 35 N IML 30 NW MCK 55 WSW HLC 35 SW GCK 20 NNE EHA 40 WNW EHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CTY 15 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N CMX 10 WNW RHI 10 WSW LSE 15 SSE FOD 25 NW BIE 30 NW P28 30 WSW SPS 50 WNW AUS 40 NW VCT 20 S PSX ...CONT... 75 S GBN 70 E BLH 30 ESE IGM 25 SSW PGA 35 ESE CNY 25 SE CPR 45 ENE 4BQ 10 E GDV 15 SE GGW 45 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 10 E BGM 40 W ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS MT/WY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW IN SCNTRL SD WITH A MOIST TONGUE WRAPPING NWWD AROUND THE LOW IN NRN SD. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM SRN ND SWD ACROSS CNTRL SD AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT. A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXISTS IN WRN AND CNTRL SD WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH IN THE LINE ACROSS SRN ND. MODEL FORECAST SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE...ORGANIZING SWD ACROSS CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTING ACROSS WRN KS AND WCNTRL NEB. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN KS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD INTO FAR WRN KS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FAR WRN KS THIS EVENING SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...THE DDC 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF DODGE CITY. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 05:57:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 00:57:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408080557.i785v0921330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080555 SWODY1 SPC AC 080553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CMX 20 E AUW 25 WSW JVL 20 SSE MLI 45 S IRK 40 NNE CNU 50 E LBL 40 W EHA 55 SSE LHX 15 SE LHX 20 NNE LAA 45 SSW EAR OFK 35 NE FSD 30 SE FAR 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR 10 NE CMI 55 SSW STL 20 N FYV 40 ESE OKC 25 WNW SPS 55 WNW MWL ACT 15 SW LFK 40 NW LFT 30 ESE LUL 35 NNE DHN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 45 NNW GBN 30 SW PRC 50 ENE IGM 30 NNW GCN 55 SSE U17 35 NNE CEZ 20 E ASE 10 ESE FCL 35 NNW VTN 35 NNE PIR 10 E MBG 25 NNE DIK 65 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS 20 ENE PSF 15 SSE UCA 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AND INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND KS. PARTIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HEATING...YIELDING MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM INITIATION ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL KS. ALTHOUGH ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER NORTHEAST...OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE NCNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...SPREADING STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT BUT MULTICELL SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE MODE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS WHERE A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN MS VALLEY... CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NEAR A COLD FRONTAL ZONE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD TODAY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING FOR THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM UPDRAFTS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MN AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MN AND WRN IA BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ...W TX/ERN NM... MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S F. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF SE NM AND FAR W TX...SPREADING GRADUALLY EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE STORMS...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE STRONGEST STORMS NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 12:25:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 07:25:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408081224.i78COm901350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081222 SWODY1 SPC AC 081221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 25 SE TOP 50 E LBL 40 W EHA 25 S LAA 15 NNE LAA 40 SSW GLD 40 ESE LBF 35 NNW BUB 35 SSE ABR 40 ENE JMS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 45 WNW PHX 45 ENE IGM 30 NNW GCN 10 SW CEZ 25 SW GUC 30 NNW 4FC 15 ENE CYS 30 ENE AIA 35 SE PHP 35 S MBG 30 NNW MBG 25 E DIK 30 ESE SDY 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE APN 20 SW MBS 35 S SPI 10 ESE VIH 30 SW UMN 20 N MLC 30 NE ADM 30 N FTW ACT 15 SW LFK 30 NW LFT 20 E LUL 35 NNE DHN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSM 15 E PSF 20 SSE UCA 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER SPREADING ACROSS MN/WI THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND EAST ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE OUTRUN THE SURFACE FRONT AND CONTINUE WITHIN WEAK WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SERN NEB TO SRN MN EARLY TODAY. DEEP NWLY FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO KS BY MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATED A WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATING SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON THE SERN FLANK OF FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TURN MORE SLY AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. ...ERN DAKOTAS/MN/WI... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST IR SATL IMAGES INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY LIKELY ACROSS SRN/SERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPPING AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BELT OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN HALF OF MN WILL RESULT IN ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SEVERAL LINES OR BANDS OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING. GREATER TORNADO THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL RESULTING IN LOW SRH ON FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN INTO WRN WI AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS. ...NEB/IA/KS/MO... STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME SITUATED ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRINGE EFFECTS FROM HEIGHT FALL CENTER PASSING THE REGION TO THE NORTH WILL AID IN OVERCOMING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION. IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-40KT. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY SURFACE FRONT FROM KS INTO MO BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...WEST TX/ERN NM... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND SERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE WOULD SUGGEST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 16:19:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 11:19:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408081618.i78GIi904681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081616 SWODY1 SPC AC 081615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 35 SW OJC 50 SSE DDC 40 W EHA 25 S LAA 15 NNE LAA 40 SSW GLD 40 ESE LBF 30 NNW BUB 35 ESE HON 40 S FAR 75 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSM 25 NNE PSF 20 N BGM 15 N ROC ...CONT... 80 ESE ANJ 15 N BEH 20 NW VIH 40 SW JLN 35 SSW TUL 40 N FTW 15 W AUS 45 ESE SAT 25 NE NIR 45 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 E HOU 15 WNW LCH 35 NW 7R4 25 ESE LFT 25 N MSY 20 WNW PNS 35 E MAI 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 60 ESE YUM 65 NNW GBN 20 ENE IGM 20 NNE PGA 65 SSW 4BL 30 NNE GUP 30 W 4SL 35 NE 4SL 35 W ALS 50 NNW 4FC 15 ESE LAR 60 NE AIA 45 ENE PIR 30 NW ABR 35 SW JMS 20 SSE P24 30 ENE ISN 65 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPACT/VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LOCATED AT 15Z VICINITY SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/ND BORDER TRACKING EWD TO BE OVER NRN MN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM SURFACE LOW SRN MANITOBA THRU ERN DAKOTAS...WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB. PRESSURE SURGE/COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD THRU ERN CO AND WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON...AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DISSIPATE AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NRN MN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE CURRENT THICK CLOUDINESS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AS UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING SPREAD EWD WITH UPPER LOW AND FRONT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... STRONG HEATING SRN MN AHEAD OF FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENABLE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2000 J/KG. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH UPPER LOW REMAINS W OF WARM SECTOR THIS PM...THUS SFC-6KM SHEAR PROFILES OF 25-30 KT SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH STORMS SRN MN...WITH DIMINISHING RISK NWD ACROSS NRN MN WHERE AIR MASS WILL STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD...UPPER WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE...CONTINUING AT LEAST A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO WI THIS EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS WARM SECTOR TO E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SWRN NEB INTO SERN CO...ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING...AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG COMMON. WHILE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT...THE PRONOUNCED VEERING PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM ERN NEB SWWD INTO NRN/WRN KS WHERE CAP WEAKENS. SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR INITIALLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PRIOR TO A MORE MULTICELLULAR MODE BY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE HAIL MODELS INDICATE LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN 30F T/TD SPREADS. STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE S/SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER ONLY A WEAK LLJ SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LESSEN AFTER DARK. ...SWRN TX/SERN NM... A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS THIS AREA. STRONG HEATING WILL ENABLE A FEW STORMS TO BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 20:06:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 15:06:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408082005.i78K5K908793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082003 SWODY1 SPC AC 082001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 35 SW OJC 30 SSW HUT 30 ESE DDC 15 NNW DDC 30 SW HLC 30 E MCK 10 WSW EAR 25 NNE OMA 30 NNE OTG 55 NNE ABR 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 65 NNW GBN 20 ENE IGM 20 NNE PGA 65 SSW 4BL 30 NNE GUP 30 W 4SL 35 NE 4SL 35 W ALS 50 NNW 4FC 15 ESE LAR 60 NE AIA 45 ENE PIR 30 NW ABR 35 SW JMS 20 SSE P24 30 ENE ISN 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 80 ESE ANJ 15 N BEH 20 NW VIH 40 SW JLN 35 SSW TUL 40 N FTW 15 W AUS 45 ESE SAT 25 NE NIR 45 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 E HOU 15 WNW LCH 35 NW 7R4 25 ESE LFT 25 N MSY 20 WNW PNS 35 E MAI 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 SE PSM 25 NNE PSF 20 N BGM 15 N ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB ALONG/AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE FROM S OF OMAHA SWWD TO CNTRL KS WHERE MLCAPES WERE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KILOMETERS IS 25-30 KTS...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MCS THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO CNTRL KS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND SINCE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL DECREASE INSTABILITY. ...ERN ND EWD TO UPPER MS VLY... COMPACT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MINUS 15C H5 TEMPERATURES ATOP AROUND 75/60F SURFACE T/TD HAVE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTMS IN NWRN MN AND ND. COLD TROP AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD AS H5 HEIGHT FALLS TRANSLATE INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF NRN MN HAS NOT DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO CLOUDS. HOWEVER... ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ELSEWHERE...COMPLICATED SURFACE FEATURES EXIST ACROSS MN/IA INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN WI AND OVER SCNTRL MN/NCNTRL IA. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED VCNTY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL MN AND NCNTRL IA WHERE MLCAPES RANGE UP TO 2000 J/KG. TSTMS WILL EITHER INTENSIFY /BECOME SURFACE BASED/ FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OR DEVELOP VCNTY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL WI/ERN IA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S/90S WILL SUPPORT TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM SRN CO INTO NM AND W TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLD GUSTY WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...NRN MAINE... TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH COLD CORE ALOFT. ISOLD HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SWRN TX... MCV OVER THE CONCHO VLY OF CNTRL TX HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN TSTM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ALONG THE SRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT TSTM COMPLEX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG. THOUGH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT /REF MCD #1923/. ..RACY.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 00:59:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 19:59:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408090059.i790x0922617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090057 SWODY1 SPC AC 090055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 20 E RHI 40 WNW OSH 20 E DBQ 30 NE IRK 20 NE MKC 15 WSW EMP 10 WNW HUT 20 SSE RSL 40 WSW CNK 25 NNW FNB 35 N DSM 35 NE MCW 15 NNE MSP 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 50 SSE JAX ...CONT... 20 ESE PSM 15 WNW EFK ...CONT... 80 NE MQT 10 SE ESC 15 SSE MTW 30 S RFD 35 S UIN 15 SE CNU 40 ENE OKC 15 NNW FTW 35 SW TPL 30 WNW VCT 45 S VCT ...CONT... 25 W YUM 25 NE PHX SOW 40 NNE GNT 25 WNW ALS 15 NNW COS 40 SE AKO 30 ESE MCK 20 WNW OMA 30 NW FOD 10 N FRM 35 NNE RWF 60 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS MN. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PUNCHING FROM THE WEST INTO MN HELPING CREATE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR INL SHOWS STRONG DIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO 15 C WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A MARGINAL THREAT LATE THIS EVENING IN ERN WI AND NW IL. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE NEB WITH A LOW IN CNTRL KS. THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY INSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH A BOWING STRUCTURE CURRENTLY TRACKING SEWD ACROSS NE KS. VAD WIND PROFILES IN NE KS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HOWEVER...THE MAIN MODE WILL BE MULTICELL. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL FORMATION. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LINE MOVES SWD INTO DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS SCNTRL KS. ...WEST AND SW TX... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD ACROSS W TX. THIS IS FUELING A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NORTH OF DEL RIO. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT DRT SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS AROUND 4 C WILL BE TOO WARM FOR HAIL HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 05:45:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 00:45:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408090544.i795iE908282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090541 SWODY1 SPC AC 090540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CAO 35 ENE TAD COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 25 NNW SNY 20 S IML 40 N GCK 30 NE LBL 25 SE EHA 35 N CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI BMI 30 S MMO 30 SSE MKE 15 WNW MBL 85 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SSE EED 35 N INW 20 E FMN 30 SE ASE 30 W 4FC 50 ESE RIW 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP 10 SE GRI 30 E BIE 30 ENE P35 35 NW BRL 20 SW DBQ 45 S LSE 35 WNW STC 35 WNW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 SSW LEX 30 NE HOP 15 WSW DYR 25 NNE PBF 25 SSE PBF 40 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LOWER MI TODAY AND SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A JET MAX PUNCHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. THE STORMS MAY BUILD SWD INTO NRN IND AND NRN OH BY EVENING. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE OH VALLEY DUE TO WEAKER FORCING IN THIS AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LAKE ERIE VICINITY. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT AGAINST THE MTNS ACROSS ERN CO. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN KS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE CO SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING WILL EXIST WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO WRN KS BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN OZARKS... MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AHEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM CNTRL KS TO CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL HELP INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SRN KS...SCNTRL MO AND CNTRL IL WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SLOWLY SEWD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY DECREASE QUICKLY IN INTENSITY AS INSTABILITY DROPS AFTER SUNSET. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 12:55:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 07:55:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408091254.i79Cso912520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091252 SWODY1 SPC AC 091250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CAO 15 N TAD 10 W COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 30 NNE SNY 20 SSW IML 35 S MCK 30 NE LBL 25 SE EHA 25 N CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 20 E JVL 40 NE GRB 85 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 NW BLH 35 W PRC 75 NNE INW 20 ENE FMN 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP BUB 25 E GRI 40 NNW FNB 10 N LWD 25 NNE OTM 55 NW DBQ 15 S MSP STC 50 SW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 NNE LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SECOND TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NRN AB...DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS WRN CANADA. 10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE NW OVER NRN MN. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWD ACROSS WRN WI TO NERN IA...AND THEN SWWD TO ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL KS. ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... BAND OF WNWLY 55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN IL BY 00Z. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AND EXTEND FROM THE ERN U.P. OF MI SWWD ACROSS LAKE MI TO CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO BY 00Z. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. NEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN WI/FAR ERN IA SINCE 10Z AND OTHER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS EXTENDING FROM NRN IL TO LOWER MI AND THE ERN U.P. WILL MOVE EWD AND MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS LOWER MI/IND/NWRN OH. A MID-LEVEL INTRUSION OF DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z ACROSS FAR ERN WI AND NRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI/NRN IND INTO NWRN OH...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS FAVORING BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY...AS MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 OVER ERN CO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED UPPER FORCING MECHANISM...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SE STORM MOTION...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S OVER WRN KS THIS EVENING AS A 30-35 KT SLY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION. THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL KS TONIGHT AS THE LLJ VEERS TO SWLY. ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 16:20:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 11:20:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408091619.i79GJs915354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091617 SWODY1 SPC AC 091616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 20 E JVL 25 NNE GRB 25 SSE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CVS 30 SSE LVS 10 W COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 30 NNE SNY 20 ESE IML 35 S MCK 10 WNW GAG 55 NNW CDS 55 NE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 25 SE TRM 45 NNW BLH 10 E IGM 20 WNW CDC 35 E U24 35 S VEL 45 WNW EGE 35 NE EGE 15 SSE LAR 55 WNW BFF 15 NNE AIA 30 SSW MHN 20 NNW EAR 40 W BIE 10 ENE FNB 30 NNE LWD 35 W CID 55 SSW LSE 30 SW RST 30 NNW MKT 30 E AXN 30 NNW BJI 10 ENE RRT ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 45 W MRB 35 SW EKN 35 SE LEX 20 SW BWG 30 SSW DYR 10 NNE PBF 20 NNE ELD 35 NNW MLU 20 SSE GLH 40 SSW MSL 25 SSW CHA 20 NNW ATL 45 NNE DHN 30 WSW VLD 15 N JAX 25 NE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES WHILE UNSEASONABLY STRONG S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONE S/WV TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM UPR LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS LS WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM SURFACE LOW MOVING NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN LS. FRONT WILL CROSS MI THIS AFTERNOON AND TRAIL SWWD INTO NRN MO AND WWD THRU KS TO ERN CO. ANOTHER STRONGER S/WV TROUGH/UPPER LOW DROPPING SEWD THRU CENTRAL ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM ROCKIES TO MS VALLEY ENHANCING THE SHEAR PROFILES AND SPREADING STEEP LAPSE RATES EWD ACROSS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OF HIGH PLAINS TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN UPR MI TO SWRN WI WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ALL OF MI INTO NRN IN BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT HEATING IN WAKE OF FIRST BAND OF STORMS NOW MOVING EWD INTO NRN LWR MI TO ALLOW AIR MASS TO BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT. WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40-45 KT COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MN...STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. REF MCD 1929. PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN MI THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... FAVORABLE NWLY FLOW SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/WRN KS SWD INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES. AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WWD TO FRONT RANGE. ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS LOCATED N OF PALMER DIVIDE E OF DEN AND SERN CO. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2000 J/KG OR HIGHER BY MID AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN ERN CO INCLUDING IN THE AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS. WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...COUPLED WITH A STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AND DROP S/SEWD INTO TX/OX PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 20:06:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 15:06:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408092006.i79K63931685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092002 SWODY1 SPC AC 092000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CLE 30 SSE FDY MIE CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 10 W OSH 30 SSW CMX 20 N CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CSM CVS 35 ENE 4CR 20 SSE FCL 35 SW IML HLC 45 W HUT END CSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 45 W MRB BKW JKL HOP 30 SSW DYR PBF ELD 30 NNE MLU TUP MSL CHA 20 NNW ATL 45 NNE DHN 30 WSW VLD 15 N JAX 25 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 ENE CZZ TRM IGM SGU 35 SSW SLC 45 ESE EVW 35 N GJT 35 NE EGE RWL DGW BFF LBF 35 S HSI 10 ENE FNB 30 NNE LWD 35 W CID 55 SSW LSE 30 ENE MKT 20 ESE BJI INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO TO NERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MI/LM...PORTIONS LS...IL...INDIANA...OH...LH...LE... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY GREAT LAKES MEAN TROUGH...WRN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE...AND PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ACROSS GREAT PLAINS. MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- VERY WELL DEFINED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/ONT BOUNDARY REGION -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS LS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS ERN WI...NWRN IL...NRN MO...CENTRAL KS...E-CENTRAL CO. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN KS AND CO...WHILE MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 20 KT OVER LM...ERN LS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS MI/WI/IL. FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SEWD OVER NRN MO. ...GREAT LAKES STATES... SEVERE TSTM RISK -- WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING ATTM ACROSS NERN WI AND WRN UPPER MI -- WILL LAST THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS REGION. REF SPC WW 723 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL. SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER AREAS AROUND LM...EWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND SWD INTO PORTIONS IL/INDIANA/NWRN OH. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING FARTHER N...RELATIVELY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. THIS ALSO WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTM INITIATION DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA...ALONG WITH ABOUT 30-35 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT INVOF FRONT...AS BOTH CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS NEAR FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPES ESTIMATED AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN KS. REF SPC WWS 724...725 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR DETAILS ON NEAR-TERM THREATS. SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK ARE GREATEST INVOF CO PORTION OF SFC FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED...SFC TEMPS AND THEREFORE LCLS ARE LOWEST...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER TO MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG EXTEND WELL SWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MCS AND MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. ..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 23:57:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 18:57:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408092357.i79NvB905909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092354 SWODY1 SPC AC 092353 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CLE 30 SSE FDY MIE CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 10 W OSH 30 SSW CMX 20 N CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CSM CVS 35 ENE 4CR 20 SSE FCL 35 SW IML HLC 45 W HUT END CSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 45 W MRB BKW JKL HOP 30 SSW DYR PBF ELD 30 NNE MLU TUP MSL CHA 20 NNW ATL 45 NNE DHN 30 WSW VLD 15 N JAX 25 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 ENE CZZ TRM IGM SGU 35 SSW SLC 45 ESE EVW 35 N GJT 35 NE EGE RWL DGW BFF LBF 35 S HSI 10 ENE FNB 30 NNE LWD 35 W CID 55 SSW LSE 30 ENE MKT 20 ESE BJI INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO TO NERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MI/LM...PORTIONS LS...IL...INDIANA...OH...LH...LE... AMENDED TO ADD ARIZONA IN A 5% FOR WIND DAMAGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE SFC WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY GREAT LAKES MEAN TROUGH...WRN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE...AND PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ACROSS GREAT PLAINS. MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- VERY WELL DEFINED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/ONT BOUNDARY REGION -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS LS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS ERN WI...NWRN IL...NRN MO...CENTRAL KS...E-CENTRAL CO. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN KS AND CO...WHILE MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 20 KT OVER LM...ERN LS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS MI/WI/IL. FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SEWD OVER NRN MO. ...GREAT LAKES STATES... SEVERE TSTM RISK -- WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING ATTM ACROSS NERN WI AND WRN UPPER MI -- WILL LAST THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS REGION. REF SPC WW 723 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL. SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER AREAS AROUND LM...EWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND SWD INTO PORTIONS IL/INDIANA/NWRN OH. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING FARTHER N...RELATIVELY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. THIS ALSO WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTM INITIATION DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA...ALONG WITH ABOUT 30-35 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT INVOF FRONT...AS BOTH CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS NEAR FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPES ESTIMATED AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN KS. REF SPC WWS 724...725 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR DETAILS ON NEAR-TERM THREATS. SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK ARE GREATEST INVOF CO PORTION OF SFC FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED...SFC TEMPS AND THEREFORE LCLS ARE LOWEST...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER TO MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG EXTEND WELL SWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MCS AND MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. ..BROYLES.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 00:55:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 19:55:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408100055.i7A0tB925499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100053 SWODY1 SPC AC 100051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 NW DAY 25 NE HUF 10 WNW MTO 15 ESE SPI 10 W BMI 50 S CGX 15 W BEH 25 S MBL 35 E ESC 60 ENE MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S AMA 20 SE TCC 45 W TCC 30 NNE LVS 30 WNW PUB 35 ESE DEN 25 E AKO 15 SSW MCK 10 NNE RSL 30 NNE P28 10 NW END 40 ENE CSM 30 NNE CDS 30 S AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ART 45 SW ELM 25 N EKN 25 N 5I3 15 NE HOP PBF 15 ENE ELD 25 SE ELD 35 NNE MLU 10 ENE GLH TUP 15 ESE MSL 35 SW CHA 30 SE RMG 30 E CSG 25 N MGR 35 WNW JAX 15 SE JAX ...CONT... 10 SSW IPL 20 ESE EED 50 WSW GCN 15 ESE GCN 80 ESE PGA 10 WSW DRO 40 SSE GUC 25 NNW DEN 25 S SNY 45 ENE MCK 35 SW FNB 40 NE MKC 25 S MLI 35 NNE MMO 15 ENE MKE 40 NE GRB 60 NE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN CO...WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE DENVER AREA INTO SW KS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CO AND WRN KS AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOST OF THIS IS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THE DDC 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL VEERING AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER ERN CO AND FAR WRN KS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND WRN LOWER MI. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIVING THE CONVECTION AND THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS LOWER MI THIS EVENING. A MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHING INTO SRN LOWER MI IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...A BROKEN LINE SHOULD DEVELOP. BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14 C WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. OTHER STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN IND AND CNTRL IL. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN AN AXIS FROM LOWER MI EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN MO. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK INTO IND. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...ARIZONA... SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SE AND CNTRL AR. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL MAKE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 00:48:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 19:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408110047.i7B0liV21856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110045 SWODY1 SPC AC 110044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW AMA 40 SSW DHT 25 SSW CAO 35 ENE TAD 30 NW LIC 30 W AKO 35 E AKO 25 ESE DDC 25 SW P28 40 ESE GAG 50 WNW CSM 15 NW AMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LBB 45 S CVS 65 W CVS LVS 35 N 4FC 25 ENE LAR 40 NNE CYS 20 SE BFF 25 ESE IML HUT 10 NNW PNC 30 ENE OKC 30 ENE FSI 40 S LTS 25 ESE LBB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 ENE ALB 35 SSE MSV 30 WSW ILG 35 WSW DCA 15 NNW SSU 25 SSW CRW 20 NNW CRW 20 WSW MGW 15 N PSB 25 W ITH 15 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW IPL 25 SW EED 55 NE IGM 40 N 4BL 10 ENE EGE 45 SSE RWL 30 N RWL 35 NNE CPR 40 NE RAP 20 N 9V9 20 N OMA 30 SSW STL 25 NE PAH 45 S SDF 50 ENE LEX 25 W HLG 15 W BFD 20 SSW ROC 45 NNE ROC ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 NE GSO 30 E CLT 40 NE CAE 25 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE BGS 20 SW MAF 35 ESE FST 45 ENE P07 25 SE TPL 20 N POE 25 N ESF 10 NW MLU ELD 10 NNW FTW 15 NNE BGS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN US... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING IN NE CO AND THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED IN ERN CO EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SW KS. THIS FEATURE IS A KEY FACTOR WHICH WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MCS ORGANIZING IN NE CO WILL PROPAGATE SSEWD ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MCS TO EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS IN FAR ERN CO AND FAR WRN KS. VAD WIND PROFILES IN ERN CO CURRENTLY SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MCS EXPANDS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO INTO A MULTICELL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY ORGANIZES INTO A LINEAR MCS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE FAR SE CO AND SW KS. THE MCS SHOULD REACH RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...NORTHEASTERN US... A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS WRN NY AND NWRN PA. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ...ARIZONA... A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ONGOING IN SCNTRL AZ. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS SRN AZ. MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 06:10:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 01:10:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408110609.i7B69aV25837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110607 SWODY1 SPC AC 110605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SAT 60 NNW DRT 45 SE GDP 25 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 40 SW DEN 15 S FCL 40 E FCL 15 SSW AKO 25 NNE LAA 30 NNW AMA 30 WSW CDS 20 N MWL 40 SSW PRX 40 NE SHV 35 WSW MLU 15 WNW ESF 25 WSW POE 40 SE CLL 15 NE SAT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 55 ESE SGU 40 NNE CNY 25 E RWL 35 SSW DGW 25 SW BFF 30 SW RSL 25 E ICT 10 ENE UMN 30 NNW DYR 30 E CKV 25 S LEX 20 NNW UNI 15 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WAL 40 N ORF RIC 20 SE CHO 25 SW MRB 30 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 70 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...CO/ERN NM/W TX... SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAINLY ACROSS SE CO AND NE NM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK SSEWD EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. ...NORTHEASTERN US... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO NY...PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE IN THE MTNS ACROSS NY...WRN PA AND WRN VA AROUND MID-DAY. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH SOME TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE LINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NY AND NE PA. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9.0 C/KM. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA... AN MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THOUGH THE OK PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SSEWD AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE MCS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF A SWIFTLY MOVING COLD FRONT AND MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT 12Z. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS E TX AND WRN LA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 18Z. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F...WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX...E TX AND FAR WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 06:18:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 01:18:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408110617.i7B6HEV27997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110615 SWODY1 SPC AC 110613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SAT 60 NNW DRT 45 SE GDP 25 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 40 SW DEN 15 S FCL 40 E FCL 15 SSW AKO 25 NNE LAA 30 NNW AMA 30 WSW CDS 20 N MWL 40 SSW PRX 40 NE SHV 35 WSW MLU 15 WNW ESF 25 WSW POE 40 SE CLL 15 NE SAT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 55 ESE SGU 40 NNE CNY 25 E RWL 35 SSW DGW 25 SW BFF 30 SW RSL 25 E ICT 10 ENE UMN 30 NNW DYR 30 E CKV 25 S LEX 20 NNW UNI 15 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WAL 40 N ORF RIC 20 SE CHO 25 SW MRB 30 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 70 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... CORRECTED TO TAKE OUT ARIZONA SEE TEXT ...CO/ERN NM/W TX... SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAINLY ACROSS SE CO AND NE NM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK SSEWD EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. ...NORTHEASTERN US... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO NY...PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE IN THE MTNS ACROSS NY...WRN PA AND WRN VA AROUND MID-DAY. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH SOME TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE LINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NY AND NE PA. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9.0 C/KM. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA... AN MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THOUGH THE OK PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SSEWD AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE MCS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF A SWIFTLY MOVING COLD FRONT AND MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT 12Z. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS E TX AND WRN LA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 18Z. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F...WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX...E TX AND FAR WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX. ..BROYLES.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 12:54:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 07:54:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408111253.i7BCrvV27681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111251 SWODY1 SPC AC 111249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WAL 40 N ORF 40 WSW RIC 35 NNE LYH 25 SW MRB 30 W ART ...CONT... 40 N BML ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AUS 50 NE DRT 25 N P07 55 N MRF 20 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 50 S 4FC 20 E DEN 30 NNE LIC 35 N LAA 35 S DHT 25 WNW LBB 50 N ABI 20 SSE MLC 30 WSW HOT 35 WSW MLU 15 WNW ESF 30 WNW BPT 45 W HOU 15 E AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 55 ESE SGU 40 NNE CNY 25 E RWL 35 SSW DGW 25 SW BFF 30 SW RSL 25 E ICT 10 ENE UMN 30 NNW DYR 30 E CKV 25 S LEX 20 NNW UNI 15 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 70 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES AND EWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIGS SSEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL STATES/LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WRN NOAM WITH NNWLY FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE TX/LA COAST. ...NERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TRAILING SWD TO THE OH VALLEY WILL TRACK NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TODAY ACROSS NY/PA AND THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM VA/DELMARVA AREA NWD TO CENTRAL/ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AT 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT FAVORING BANDS OF STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDICATING A TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES TODAY...WHERE AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...SRN CO/ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TX... UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY ONGOING MCS OVER OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...AND ALSO BACK WWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WITH 35-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTING IN SUPERCELLS. VEERING WIND PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH A GREATER THREAT EXPECTED TO BE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY CLUSTER INTO AN MCS TONIGHT AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. ...ERN TX TO THE ARKLATEX REGION... SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING MCS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MODEST AT BEST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SOME ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE WELL-DEFINED MCV SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN TX INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR AND WRN LA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...NERN GULF COAST... T.S. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENT NHC FORECAST PLACES BONNIE 60-80 MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE OUTER BANDS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE. RISK REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO FORECAST A CATEGORICAL RISK...BUT IF THE TRACK/SPEED OF T.S. BONNIE CHANGES THEN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:10:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:10:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408111609.i7BG9rV23780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111605 SWODY1 SPC AC 111604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1104 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TESTING. THIS IS A TEST OF THE DISSEMINATION SYSTEM. PLEASE DISREGARD. THE OFFICIAL DAY 1 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE DISSEMINATED BY 1630Z. ..AFWA.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:21:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:21:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408111620.i7BGKPV28913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111617 SWODY1 SPC AC 111615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML ISP ...CONT... 15 S WAL 40 N ORF 40 WSW RIC 35 NNE LYH 25 SW MRB 30 W ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE AUS 50 NE DRT 25 N P07 55 N MRF 20 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 50 S 4FC 20 E DEN 30 NNE LIC 35 N LAA 35 S DHT 25 WNW LBB 25 SW SEP 35 NNW TYR 20 WNW ELD 35 N ESF 20 NNW ESF 40 NW BPT 45 W HOU 40 SSE AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 10 SSE SGU 10 SSW MLF 30 SE U24 20 E PUC 50 ESE VEL 40 E RWL 50 SSW DGW 30 WSW BFF 30 WSW RSL 35 NNW END 35 N OKC 50 SW TUL 20 N FYV 25 S POF 25 ENE CKV 35 SSE LEX 30 N HTS 25 N PKB 30 NNW HLG 10 WNW YNG 40 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 80 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHEASTERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO LA... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL ESTABLISHED UNSEASONABLY STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. WITH A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WIND MAXS ROTATING THRU TROUGH POSITION. 60KT 500 MB WIND MAX/SW TROUGH MOVES FROM OH VALLEY NEWD TO ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE UPSTREAM WIND MAX DROPS SWD THRU NRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z THU. AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD THRU WRN NY/PA AND THEN SWWD ACROSS AR. OVERNIGHT SEVERE MCS HAS PUSHED PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY S INTO N TX EXTENDING WWD INTO ERN NM WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN PLAINS SOME DISTANCE. T.S. BONNIE IS FORECASTED TO TRACK NEWD TO REACH GULF COAST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...NERN U.S... REF MCD 1958 AIR MASS TO THE E OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WRN NY/PA BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE. GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES CURRENTLY CLIMBING TO 2000 J/KG EXTENDS FROM ERY NY SWD TO E OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MID/UPR SPEED MAX...35-40KT OF SHEAR DEVELOPS DURING AFTERNOON INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NERN U.S. THERE ALSO IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS DURING AFTERNOON. WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENING CIN...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG FLOW AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF FAVORABLE SHEAR ERN NY SWD THRU ERN PA. ...HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD OVER THE PLAINS ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING....BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL TURN UPSLOPE ELY/SELY FROM ERN NM NWD INTO SERN CO. GIVEN THE 30-40 KT OF UPPER NWLY FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL FORM OVER/JUST E OF HIGH TERRAIN ERN CO/NM AND THEN MOVE/PROPAGATE S/SSEWD THRU SERN CO/ERN NM. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF POLAR AIR MASS WILL LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE MDT/STG INSTABILITY...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS TX INTO LA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...PULSE SEVERE WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. SEVERE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...LOCAL DOWNBURSTS. ...ERN GULF COAST... REF NHC ADVISORY WTNT22 OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF T.S. BONNIE COULD BE MOVING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT VICINITY FL PANHANDLE. PRIMARY THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH BONNIE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. ..HALES/GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 20:12:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 15:12:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408112011.i7BKBbV15382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112005 SWODY1 SPC AC 112003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML BID ...CONT... 10 ENE ORF 50 WSW ORF 35 N GSO 20 S MRB 30 NE MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W FST 75 SSW GDP ELP 20 SW SAF ALS 20 S LAR 20 SW SNY LAA DHT 50 W LBB 30 W FST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACT 20 S PRX UOX JAN POE HOU 30 ENE SAT ACT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 10 SSE SGU 10 SSW MLF 30 SE U24 20 E PUC 50 ESE VEL 40 E RWL 50 SSW DGW 30 WSW BFF 30 WSW RSL 35 NNW END 35 N OKC 50 SW TUL 20 N FYV 25 S POF 25 ENE CKV 35 SSE LEX 30 N HTS 25 N PKB 30 NNW HLG 10 WNW YNG 40 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 80 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/WRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN NY SWWD TO ERN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX TO WRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN CO AND ERN NM...FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOMALOUSLY DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE...AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD FROM DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE IS NOW ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NY SWWD DOWN APPALACHIANS TO TN VALLEY AND NWRN MS...THEN WSWWD TOWARD WRN-MOST PORTIONS TX/NM BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION...SEWD OVER TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS...AND SWD ACROSS TX. FRONTAL ZONE IS PRECEDED BY PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WINDSHIFT LINE OVER ERN NY AND E-CENTRAL PA BEHIND WHICH SFC DEW POINTS DROP FROM UPPER 60S TO 50S AND LOWER 60S..AND WIND VEERS TO SWLY. ...NERN CONUS... STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING ENEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH. TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACT AS EFFECTIVE WRN BOUND FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF VEERED FLOW AND DRYING TO ITS W. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...FROM LINE SEGMENTS AND SMALL BOWS. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN GREATEST FROM DISCRETE STORMS...WHICH ARE IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. 18Z ALB RAOB -- WITH SOME QUALITY CONTROL APPLIED TO REMOVE BOGUS WET-BULB COOLING EFFECT BETWEEN 500-700 MB -- YIELDED ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RANGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS -- ANALYZED ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRESENT CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR. REF WWS 738...739 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS OVER OUTLOOK AREA. POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 01Z...WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED ENOUGH BY DIABATIC COOLING TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE SBCAPE. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN NW-SE BANDS OVER MOUNTAINS -- ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH MEAN FLOW VECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND HIGH PLAINS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT FROM NERN NM NWD THROUGH S-CENTRAL CO...WHERE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 150-200 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH IS EXPECTED...BASED ON PROFILER DATA AND MODEL FCST HODOGRAPHS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 AND WW 740 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING NEAR TERM THREAT. SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING SUPERCELLS EXTENDS ACROSS ERN NM AS WELL...WHERE STRONG VEERING CONTRIBUTES TO LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT CELL MOTIONS TOWARD S. STRONGER UPSLOPE ASCENT AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO FARTHER N INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS BY 00Z. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO SWD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION. ...S-CENTRAL/SERN TX...NRN LA... VIS/RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSES SHOW PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EFFECTIVE FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH ONGOING TSTM CLUSTER OVER AR/LA BORDER REGION. NEWER DEVELOPMENT CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX SHOULD MOVE SEWD TOWARD UPPER TX COAST AND WRN LA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF 70S F SFC DEW POINTS WITH 2500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE EVIDENT OVER THIS REGION...BUT WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATING PREDOMINANT MULTICELL CHARACTER TO CONVECTION. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE -- WITH MAIN THREAT BEING BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 02Z. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 FOR NOWCAST OVER CENTRAL TX. ...ERN GULF COAST... LATEST NHC GUIDANCE PREDICTS TS BONNIE TO MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE EARLY DAY-2...HOWEVER PERIPHERAL WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS MINI-SUPERCELLS IN ASSOCIATED OUTER BANDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES THIS AREA FOR NOW. IF THIS CYCLONE ACCELERATES OR WIND FIELDS EXPAND BEYOND CURRENT GUIDANCE...SITUATION SIMILAR TO THAT DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK COULD SPREAD INTO THIS AREA EARLY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 00:53:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 19:53:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408120052.i7C0qQV28442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120050 SWODY1 SPC AC 120048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CNM GDP ELP 35 WNW ALM 15 SSE ABQ 30 SE SAF 15 WNW RTN 25 NNW CAO 20 S CAO 20 SSE CVS 30 ENE CNM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CZZ 25 WNW TRM RAL 45 E NID 10 SSW DRA 25 S P38 BCE 60 SSW 4BL GUP GNT 4SL ALS 20 SSE ASE 30 SW LAR CYS IML GCK AMA 10 S LBB BGS BWD 15 NNE SEP DAL 10 WNW PRX HOT MEM BWG LOZ 5I3 MGW 10 NNW BFD 35 ENE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DVL 60 NNE ATY BKX MHE 40 NE PIR MBG BIS 55 WSW DVL 15 SE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM... ...SE CO/ERN NM... AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS SE CO/ERN NM THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY PROPAGATING S/SE REMAINDER OF NIGHT INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OWING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/MODERATE SHEAR. EWD EXTENT OF PROPAGATION/SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS. REFERENCE MCD 1967 AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/WATCH UPDATES FOR LATEST SHORT TERM INFORMATION. ...NORTHEAST STATES... BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT TSTMS REMAINDER OF EVENING FROM ERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND STATES. IN SPITE OF STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY LOW END WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ARE PRUDENT REMAINDER OF NIGHT. ...AZ... TSTMS ONGOING INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SCNTRL AZ. IN SPITE OF WEAK N/NE STEERING FLOW /10-15 KTS PER 00Z FGZ SOUNDING/...APPARENT DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL/MODEST DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FROM HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. ...LA/FAR SE TX/NRN MS... ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ...ERN GULF COAST... WITH CONTINUED NELY MOVEMENT...LATEST NHC GUIDANCE PREDICTS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TO MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED PERIPHERAL WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS MINI SUPERCELLS /WITH ISOLD TORNADO THREAT/ IN OUTER BANDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ..GUYER/KERR.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 05:36:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 00:36:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408120536.i7C5aCV19480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120534 SWODY1 SPC AC 120532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 25 NNE FMY 50 ESE FMY 35 SW MIA 65 ENE EYW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX GNV 35 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SSE CEW DHN 35 W MCN 40 S CLT 40 ENE DAN 10 SSE RIC 20 E ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ABQ 15 E 4SL 45 S ALS 15 NW RTN 30 W CAO 20 NNW CVS 15 N HOB 10 ESE INK 20 NNW MRF 10 SE ELP 45 SSE TCS 30 S ONM 10 NW ABQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 35 SSE RAL 20 NNE OXR 20 SE SMX 25 SE SJC 35 ESE SAC 35 WSW SVE 35 NE RBL 30 WSW RBL 55 SSE EKA 35 NE 4BK 25 WNW SLE 15 W CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 4OM 25 S YKM 70 ENE 4LW 10 W NFL 55 W TPH 50 NW DRA 30 WSW P38 15 W DRO 40 E GJT 40 ENE CAG 15 NNE FCL 50 ENE LIC 55 ESE GLD 40 W CNK 20 E LNK 40 NNE STJ 25 WNW SZL 20 ENE JLN 35 WSW BVO 25 SSW FSI 35 S SJT 40 ESE DRT 35 SW COT NIR 20 NW PSX 25 N GLS 25 SW HEZ 40 SW CSV 25 NW CRW DUJ 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEW MEXICO.... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXES WILL PERSIST...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ANOTHER FR0M THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...EITHER SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT NORTHWARD ACCELERATION OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WILL CONTINUE INLAND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...AS SHORT WAVE DIGS TOWARD BASE OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF STATES. GIVEN INFLUX OF LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL..NEAR/EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AS WELL AS IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...RISK OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE CHARLEY. OTHERWISE...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ENHANCE MEAN FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES. THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...IN ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH AND EAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHERE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES/AND HIGH PLAINS. OROGRAPHY LIKELY WILL BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR HAIL/DOWNBURSTS AS CONVECTION SLOWLY PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND CASCADES...AS LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 13:06:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 08:06:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408121305.i7CD5mV27316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121303 SWODY1 SPC AC 121301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ABQ 15 E 4SL 45 S ALS 10 N EHA 45 S LBL 40 NE PVW 45 NE HOB 10 ESE INK 20 NNW MRF 10 SE ELP 45 SSE TCS 30 S ONM 10 NW ABQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 20 N DHN 30 WNW MCN 25 E SPA 10 NW DAN 30 SW NHK WAL ...CONT... 10 E DAB 45 SW ORL 25 NNE FMY 35 SSW MIA 60 SSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 35 SSE RAL 20 NNE OXR 20 SE SMX 25 SE SJC 35 ESE SAC 35 WSW SVE 35 NE RBL 30 WSW RBL 55 SSE EKA 35 NE 4BK 25 WNW SLE 15 W CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 4OM 25 S YKM 70 ENE 4LW 10 W NFL 55 W TPH 50 NW DRA 30 WSW P38 15 W DRO 40 E GJT 40 ENE CAG 15 NNE FCL 50 ENE LIC 55 ESE GLD 45 W CNK GRI 10 NE OLU 50 ENE OMA 25 E LWD 45 NW COU 25 NE SGF 25 NNW UMN 35 WSW BVO 25 SSW FSI 35 S SJT 40 ESE DRT 35 SW COT NIR 20 NW PSX 25 N GLS 25 SW HEZ 40 SW CSV 25 NW CRW DUJ 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG ERN NOAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER TODAY... AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY. CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE INDICATED T.S. BONNIE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY FROM THE SERN TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AS SHARPENING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS MEAN FLOW. CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND THEN TRACKS INTO SRN GA/SRN SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE THEN REMNANTS OF T.S. BONNIE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWD JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN TN...AND ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. ...ERN NM/SRN CO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A RESIDUAL MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/SRN CO AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. 30-40 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TONIGHT...WITH MOVEMENT SEWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. ...PORTIONS OF AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ. 15-20 KT OF NNELY TO ELY MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHERE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 16:31:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 11:31:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408121630.i7CGUaV23330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121625 SWODY1 SPC AC 121624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1124 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 20 WNW TCS 35 ESE GNT 20 NW 4SL 20 NW ALS 30 ENE PUB 40 E LAA 25 SSE LBL 35 NNW CDS 60 ESE LBB 25 ENE BGS 50 S MAF 25 ENE MRF 40 SW MRF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CEW 20 ESE CSG 30 SSE AND 25 SSW CLT 25 ESE DAN 10 W RIC 10 E NHK 20 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW 4OM 10 NW EPH 65 NNW BNO 65 SE 4LW 30 WNW LOL 15 NW TPH 40 NNE DRA 55 S SGU 55 SE U17 40 SSE CNY 15 ENE GJT 20 N 4FC 35 E FCL 35 S IML 45 WSW HLC 35 WSW HUT 10 N CNU 45 E BVO 30 NNW MLC ADM 30 SSE FTW 65 SSW TYR 40 SW SHV 20 NW MLU 20 WSW GWO 35 E TUP 25 SW HSV 25 N CHA 45 SE LOZ 25 SW CRW 35 ESE PKB 25 SSW DUJ 40 ENE JHW 25 E BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE CNTRL US WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER TODAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE JET STREAM, ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW US AS WELL AS ALONG ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY 18Z ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ...PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY. CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE INDICATED T.S.BONNIE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY FROM THE SERN TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL. CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND THEN TRACKS NNEWD ACROSS SE GA AND INTO CNTRL SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE THEN REMNANTS OF T.S. BONNIE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES...REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWWD JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE JET WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ...NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX... EXISTING WEAK SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER NM...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH CONTD SURFACE HEATING... OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PASSAGE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. CAPES WITH VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG ARE INDICATED ON THE LATEST ETA MODEL RUN. INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TONIGHT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE SE. VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..AFWA.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 20:10:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 15:10:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408122011.i7CKB0V24854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122005 SWODY1 SPC AC 122005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0305 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DMN 20 SE 4SL 40 NNE ALS 30 W GCK 40 SW TUL 20 E ADM 45 WSW ABI 35 NW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE TLH 30 N AGS 20 N GSO 30 E HGR 20 NE MSV EWB 25 SE EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 4OM 40 WNW PDT 65 NNW BNO 55 SSE 4LW 10 NNW RNO 30 ESE BIH 55 NE LAS 25 E SGU 35 SSW 4BL 35 SSE MTJ 45 WNW 4FC 25 SSE CYS 15 S MCK 45 SSE BIE OJC 20 ENE UMN 40 SSW HOT 30 S TXK 20 WSW BPT 30 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MOB GAD 30 NE CSV 35 NNW JKL 30 SW UNI 35 NE JHW 25 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SMX 15 ESE SJC 45 E ACV 15 NW SLE 30 SE CLM 35 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL US WILL DEEPEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE, ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW US AS WELL AS ALONG ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS MADE LANDFALL AT 18Z. ..PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY. T.S. BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL. CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES...REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MESO-LOW AS IT MOVES NNEWD ALONG SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH CNTRL NC AND INTO VA. LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWWD JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE JET WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX... EXISTING WEAK SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER NM...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH CONTD SURFACE HEATING... OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PASSAGE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. MLCAPE WITH VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TONIGHT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE ESE. VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..AFWA.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 01:09:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 20:09:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408130108.i7D18OV01535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130106 SWODY1 SPC AC 130104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4CR 30 SW LVS 40 SSE RTN 10 ESE CAO 35 SW GAG CSM 15 WSW OKC 35 WSW ADM 45 WSW SPS 65 ESE LBB 15 NE BGS 35 ESE MAF FST 35 S GDP 50 ESE ALM 4CR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ 50 ENE FMY 30 S MIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SSI 70 ESE MCN 10 NW CAE 20 ESE GSO 25 SSE CHO DOV 45 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PMD BFL 50 NE MER RBL 35 ENE CEC 10 NNE SLE OLM 30 SSE BLI 65 W 4OM YKM 50 W BNO 4LW 35 NE SVE 15 SE NFL 40 N TPH MLF 75 S 4BL 50 NE GUP 4SL 35 WNW ALS GUC 4FC LIC LAA 50 SSE DDC PNC MLC 25 NW PRX 10 S DAL 10 WNW SEP 25 SE ABI 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BVE MOB MGM 20 SE ANB ATL TRI 30 WNW BLF 35 NNW SHD CXY 25 WNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN AND KEYS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...EASTERN SEABOARD... TROPICAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REMNANTS OF BONNIE...NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES OVERNIGHT. FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT HURRICANE CHARLEY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BEST RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH CHARLEY...AND POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE KEY WEST AREA BY 13/06-09Z. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN BUOYANT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF CIRCULATION CENTER. DEW POINTS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...INCREASE INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S APPEARS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS CIRCULATION CENTER OF BONNIE RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GA...IS PROGGED EAST OF COLUMBIA SC THROUGH THE RALEIGH NC AREA INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE TONIGHT. IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CASCADES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ANOTHER DIGGING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE WEST OF LUBBOCK TX INTO THE ROSWELL NM AREA NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RISK OF AT LEAST LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES/ADVANCES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PECOS VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE COLD POOL AND MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF FAIRLY QUICK COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 05:32:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 00:32:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408130532.i7D5WLV19110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130530 SWODY1 SPC AC 130528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ALS COS LAA 20 E DHT TCC LVS SAF 55 SSW ALS ALS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 55 N AYS 45 ESE CAE RDU 45 W RIC BWI 15 E MSV 15 WSW BDL 25 SSW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 35 W AVL 25 NNW SSU 35 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S VBG 30 NNW BFL 30 ENE SCK 40 SW MFR 25 WSW SEA 45 E SEA 15 SSW BKE 45 NE EKO 25 E DPG 15 SE MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 10 WNW MCK 40 SSW RSL 15 SE HUT 30 ENE PNC 35 WSW MKO 35 SSE DAL 30 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MID/NRN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...MODELS SUGGEST SHARP UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. IN BETWEEN...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO QUEBEC BY EARLY SATURDAY. ...EASTERN SEABOARD... IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH...INTENSIFYING MID/HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...AHEAD OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AXIS...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. MOIST SUBTROPICAL BELT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL...BECOMING GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...STRONGER MEAN FLOW/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF BONNIE WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F OCCURS. RISK OF HAIL APPEARS MINIMAL IN TROPICAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN A THREAT IN MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY AS CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHWARD...JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY EXTREMELY MOIST WITH MID 70S TO NEAR 80F DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. VERY BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER. RISK OF TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST DESPITE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS SYSTEM TURNS INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. ...WESTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...ASIDE FROM INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. WITH STRONG HEATING BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING RISK OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER WEAK JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THIS EVENING. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 12:25:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 07:25:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408131224.i7DCOWV18432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131222 SWODY1 SPC AC 131220 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ALS 35 E COS LAA 25 SE DHT 55 SW LBB 20 E CNM 35 WSW ROW 55 SSW LVS 45 NNE ALS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 55 N AYS 45 NE CAE 15 WSW FAY 20 SSE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 35 W AVL 25 NNW SSU 35 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S VBG 30 NNW BFL 30 ENE SCK 40 SW MFR 25 WSW SEA 45 E SEA 15 SSW BKE 45 NE EKO 25 E DPG 15 SE MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 10 WNW MCK 40 SSW RSL 15 SE HUT 30 ENE PNC 35 WSW MKO 35 SSE DAL 30 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SERN U.S... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL SOON LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND TORNADIC THREAT WILL SHIFT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR TORNADOES EXPECTED INLAND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/DELMARVA THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH...HURRICANE CHARLEY IS MOVING STEADILY NWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF FL. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/CO FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40KT...GIVEN THE SELY-NWLY VEERING PROFILES WITH ROUGHLY 30KT AT 500MB. IT'S NOT OBVIOUS IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN-INDUCED INITIATION WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 16:31:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 11:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408131632.i7DGWVV00965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131629 SWODY1 SPC AC 131627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PUB 35 ENE PUB 15 SW LAA 35 WNW PVW 20 N INK 20 N GDP 30 NE ALM SAF 45 WSW PUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CTY 25 NNW SAV 40 ENE FLO 25 SE OAJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S JFK 15 N POU 15 NNW PSF 20 WSW EEN 20 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PFN 50 NE MCN 20 E AVL 10 SSW SHD 35 WSW PSB ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RAL 15 NNE LAX 30 NE SBA 25 SSW BFL 55 NNE BFL 50 SSW TVL 35 SE MFR 50 SE OLM 40 NW YKM 55 NNW BOI 50 SW ENV 40 ENE BCE 20 S MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 15 E LBF 10 SSE RSL 50 SSW EMP 30 NNW MLC 45 WNW TYR 30 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE FL PENINSULA NWD ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.... ...FL PENINSULA... HURRICANE CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE FL GULF COAST THIS EVENING IN THE SRQ TO PIE AREA...AND CONTINUE INTO N FL OVERNIGHT /REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS NE OF THE CENTER ARE NOW SPREADING NWD ACROSS S FL...AND SHOULD REACH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER S FL ARE ALLOWING SURFACE HEATING BETWEEN THE RAIN BANDS /SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS/...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVER S FL. WIND FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER SRN/CENTRAL FL AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...THUS THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NWD INTO CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON...AND N FL TONIGHT. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... DEEP MOIST PLUME PERSIST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG GIVEN THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...40-50 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. THE COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...SHOULD BE FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAVE MOVED NEWD OFF THE NC COAST AS OF MID MORNING...WITH WLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN WILL SPREAD NWD ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE BONNIE REMNANTS...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY FROM SE GA TO ERN NC. BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE RICHER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD BACK NWD/NWWD ACROSS THE GA/SC/NC COASTS IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE. THE PRESENCE OF A NNE-SSW SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RICH MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MODEST/INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO TONIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BENEATH 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY...IN COMBINATION WITH 25-35 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NM AND SRN CO...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 20:01:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 15:01:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408132001.i7DK12V28749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131956 SWODY1 SPC AC 131954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PUB 35 ENE PUB 30 N EHA 45 ESE AMA 15 NW MAF 20 N GDP 30 NE ALM SAF 45 WSW PUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S JFK 15 N POU 15 NNW PSF 20 WSW EEN 20 S PSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CTY 25 NNW SAV 40 ENE FLO 25 SE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PFN 50 NE MCN 20 E AVL 10 SSW SHD 35 WSW PSB ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RAL 15 NNE LAX 30 NE SBA 25 SSW BFL 55 NNE BFL 50 SSW TVL 35 SE MFR 50 SE OLM 40 NW YKM 55 NNW BOI 50 SW ENV 40 ENE BCE 20 S MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 15 E LBF 10 SSE RSL 50 SSW EMP 30 NNW MLC 45 WNW TYR 30 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE CHARLEY IS NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE SWRN FL COAST ATTM...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NNEWD INTO NERN FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...FL AND THE SOUTHEAST... EYEWALL OF HURRICANE CHARLEY IS NOW AFFECTING THE ISLANDS W OF FMY...WHILE STORMS WITHIN SEVERAL OUTER BANDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA HAVE SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND EXPECT ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FL...E AND N OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. PLEASE REFER TO TORNADO WATCH 750 AND LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO / NERN NM SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. LATEST AMA /AMARILLO TX/ WSR-88D VWP AND GDA /GRANADA CO/ PROFILER SHOW WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASING TO 30 KT FROM THE NW AT MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND PERHAPS INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLES WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO WW 751 NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / SERN CO. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... WEAK LAPSE RATES BUT MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITHIN SMALL WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HUDSON VALLEY SURFACE LOW. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. WITH ENHANCED /30 TO 40 KT/ LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL PERSIST -- AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 00:47:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 19:47:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408140047.i7E0l5V27166@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140044 SWODY1 SPC AC 140042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW RTN 15 E RTN 50 SW CAO 25 NW TCC 35 SW TCC 60 W CVS ROW CNM 20 N GDP 30 NE ALM 20 E SAF 45 WSW RTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE FMY 30 SSE AGR 30 NNE AGR 40 NW AGR 55 S GNV JAX 15 E SAV 10 SE FLO 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PFN 25 ESE PFN 50 NE MCN AVL SHD ABE 10 W ALB 25 N PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RAL 15 NNE LAX 30 NE SBA 25 SSW BFL 55 NNE BFL 50 SSW TVL 35 SE MFR DLS PUW 10 SE 27U ENV 15 NNW MLF 15 N PGA 20 NNE GUP 4SL DEN SNY IML 10 SE GCK GAG SPS MWL BWD BGS P07 25 SSE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO.... ...EASTERN SEABOARD... HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS NOW ACCELERATING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE IS EVIDENT DIGGING TOWARD BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF HURRICANE CHARLEY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL PROGRESS NORTH/EAST OF ORLANDO INTO FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF DAYTONA BEACH BY 03-04Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE. RISK OF TORNADOES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY NORTH/EAST OF CIRCULATION AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH...REMNANTS OF BONNIE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CAPE COD AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS AND WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AT LEAST LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST WITH THIS FEATURE. ...WESTERN STATES... MOIST ENVIRONMENT SOUTH/EAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN /NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO... PARTICULARLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 05:35:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 00:35:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408140535.i7E5Z3V06871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140533 SWODY1 SPC AC 140531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 10 S FLO RDU 20 E BWI 10 SSE POU BDL 25 NE EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E AKO 20 NE GLD DDC 20 NW GAG AMA TCC RTN COS 10 E AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK 30 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 15 E RAL 25 NW RAL 25 SW PMD 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 30 NE BFL 25 ESE FAT 30 NE MER 40 ENE SAC 45 SW SVE 25 SE MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 ENE 4BK 35 E OTH ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 4OM 30 SE EPH 45 ESE ALW 80 NNE BOI 50 NNE SUN PIH 45 NNE EVW 40 SSE RKS 20 S RWL 55 N DGW 45 N RAP 40 N PIR 30 SW HON 30 E BUB 35 S HSI 15 SSE SLN 20 NNW PNC 20 NNW OKC 45 S ADM 25 SSE DAL 10 WNW VCT 40 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 35 W MCN 40 ESE CHA 20 S 5I3 35 WSW EKN 45 WSW DCA 35 ESE CXY 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S...WHILE BROAD CYCLONIC REGIME PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. IN CONFLUENCE BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD UP ATLANTIC COAST AREAS...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN MORE STRONGLY SHEARED/SLIGHTLY COOLER ENVIRONMENT. ...EASTERN SEABOARD... POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHARLEY...PRIMARILY NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGHEST RISK APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS ADVECTS INLAND FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE FARTHER NORTH...BUT AT LEAST RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH STRONGER CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM...SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/ GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG/EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S... MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGHER TERRAIN HEATS DURING THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW...WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON/WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE WEST WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST OF RIDGE AXIS...IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 12:45:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 07:45:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408141245.i7ECj3V27057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141243 SWODY1 SPC AC 141241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 15 SW SOP 55 WSW RIC 30 NE BWI 10 SSE POU BDL 25 NE EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW CDR 50 NW MHN 25 WNW LBF LBL 20 ESE AMA 15 NNW CVS 25 SE LVS 40 W TAD 10 NW CYS 45 WSW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK 30 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 35 W MCN 40 ESE CHA 20 S 5I3 35 WSW EKN 45 WSW DCA 35 ESE CXY 15 W POU BAF 10 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 4OM 30 SE EPH 45 ESE ALW 80 NNE BOI 50 NNE SUN PIH 45 NNE EVW 40 SSE RKS 20 S RWL 55 N DGW 45 N RAP 40 N PIR 30 SW HON OFK 20 NNW PNC 20 NNW OKC 45 S ADM 25 SSE DAL 10 WNW VCT 40 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 15 E RAL 25 NW RAL 25 SW PMD 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 30 NE BFL 25 ESE FAT 30 NE MER 40 ENE SAC 45 SW SVE 25 SE MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 ENE 4BK 35 E OTH 25 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN NWLY WARM ADVECTION REGIME. DESPITE THE RECENT SUPPRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SLY LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM WRN KS INTO WRN NEB WHICH WILL AID LATE AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST THERMAL PROFILES ARE ADEQUATELY COOL THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY PEAK HEATING. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE THEN PROPAGATE SWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL SOON MOVE INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NNEWD TOWARD DELAWARE. THIS EXPECTED TRACK WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING WIND FIELDS AND A LIMITED AREA...MAINLY COASTAL REGIONS FROM NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...EXPOSED TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. 12Z SOUNDING FROM MHX SUPPORTS THIS THREAT WITH A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SBCAPE OF ROUGHLY 1700J/KG...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 16:34:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 11:34:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408141634.i7EGY7V32574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141632 SWODY1 SPC AC 141630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 25 WSW GSB RIC 30 ENE BWI 25 NNW EWR 15 S BDL 15 WSW HYA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S BFF 55 ENE SNY 35 SSE GLD 45 ENE DHT 35 SW DHT 45 S RTN 40 W TAD 15 SSW CYS 10 S BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 15 E RAL 25 NW RAL 25 SW PMD 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 50 S BIH 20 SSW TVL 25 S MHS 45 NW MHS 25 W MFR 35 E OTH 25 N OTH ...CONT... 50 NNE 63S 25 NE GEG 40 ENE LWS 40 ESE S80 50 W COD 10 N BPI 30 SSE DPG 55 NNE BCE 35 SSW MTJ 40 W LAR 50 WSW RAP 30 W PIR 20 WNW MHE 15 SSE OFK 15 SE ICT 30 N OKC 40 SW DUA 35 W TPL 15 E HDO 25 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 25 SSW MCN 35 WNW AND 40 SSW PSK 25 SSW SHD 35 WSW DCA ABE 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK 40 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...ATLANTIC COAST... THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL MOVE QUICKLY NNEWD FROM ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE PATH OF CHARLEY...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN NC AREA COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SPECIFIC STORM TRACK AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY NWD. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO PARTS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE. THOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP IN THE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A CONTINUATION OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 19:55:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 14:55:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408141955.i7EJt1V27062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141952 SWODY1 SPC AC 141950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE BFF 25 ESE AIA 40 SSE GLD 60 SSE EHA 30 NNE TCC 20 NW LVS 25 SW COS 15 SSW CYS 10 NE BFF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ILM 20 W GSB 10 ESE RIC 30 ENE BWI 25 NNW EWR 20 S BDL 15 WSW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 20 ENE RAL 25 NW RAL 30 NNW LAX 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 55 ESE FAT 20 SSW TVL 25 S MHS 45 NW MHS 25 W MFR 35 E OTH 25 N OTH ...CONT... 35 NNE 63S 25 NE GEG 40 ENE LWS 40 ESE S80 50 W COD 10 N BPI 30 SSE DPG 55 NNE BCE MTJ 40 W LAR 50 WSW RAP 30 W PIR 20 WNW MHE 15 SSE OFK 15 SE ICT 30 N OKC 40 SW DUA 35 W TPL 15 E HDO 25 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK 40 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 15 N ABY 15 N AHN 40 W GSO 25 SSW SHD 35 WSW DCA ABE 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NC THROUGH THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AREA... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM AS WELL AS ALONG SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES. SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BELOW MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW NWLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT AT 6 KM... CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING AS STORMS MOVE SSEWD. ...NERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA AND SRN PARTS OF NE U.S... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL ACCELERATE NEWD TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE NERN QUADRANT OF THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE CENTER MOVES N OF NC...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE NEAR COSTAL AREAS OF THE MID ATLANTIC OR JUST OFFSHORE TO THE E OF THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE CENTER. LATE TONIGHT CHARLEY SHOULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON CHARLEY. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 00:53:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 19:53:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408150053.i7F0rMV10473@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150050 SWODY1 SPC AC 150048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE AKO 10 WSW GLD 40 SSE GLD 20 W CDS 10 ENE LBB 35 NE CVS LHX LIC 25 SE AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 35 W TRM 10 S PMD 30 E BFL 55 ESE FAT 20 SSW TVL MHS MFR 35 E OTH 15 SSW AST ...CONT... 35 NNE 63S 25 NE GEG 40 ENE LWS 35 ESE S80 55 ESE WEY 40 SW COD RIW 35 WNW RKS EVW 10 S OGD 35 NNE U24 4HV 45 S MTJ GUC 20 NNE 4FC 20 NE LAR 45 WSW CDR 50 WNW VTN VTN BUB 45 NNE HLC HLC DDC GAG LTS SJT 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN MCN 45 SSE AND 10 E CLT 30 W RDU 55 N RWI RIC 35 NNE RIC BWI ABE 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 55 WNW MOT 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE S CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... ...EASTERN SEABOARD... CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHARLEY IS MIGRATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COAST...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NEAR NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR IN SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS MOIST AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AHEAD OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH AT LEAST LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST IN STRONGEST CONVECTION. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM...SURFACE FRONT HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF FRONT HAS SUPPORTED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLORIDA STORMS ARE ALREADY WINDING DOWN...AND ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH SHOULD DO LIKEWISE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES... MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HAS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALSO APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST /ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW/...STORMS IN THE LEE OF THE OREGON CASCADES MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE RISK OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THROUGH 03-04Z IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEVELOP WITH STRONG HEATING. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 05:37:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 00:37:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408150536.i7F5aqV19189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150534 SWODY1 SPC AC 150532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 40 ENE TVF 45 E BJI 50 E BRD 10 NE MSP SPW SUX MHN 10 SSW CDR RAP MBG BIS 10 SE DIK 10 SSE ISN 75 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 45 W RHI 15 E LSE 10 SW P35 30 ENE CNU 15 NNE MKO 15 E MLC 10 SW DAL 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 ESE EDW 55 N BFL 25 WSW TVL 25 NNW SVE 30 SSE LMT 20 SE MFR 40 NNW MFR 10 S PDX 45 E AST 25 S UIL ...CONT... 45 N FCA 3DU 40 NNE WEY 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW 40 WSW RWL 40 S RWL 40 NW LAR 20 NNW DGW 45 NE 81V 50 NNE REJ 45 E GDV 25 WNW SDY 60 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 25 E ABY 40 E LGC 35 N GAD 60 N CSV 30 NW HTS 25 ENE CMH 40 N CLE ...CONT... 15 W MSS 25 S BTV 20 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES...WITH WEAK RIDGE IN THE WEST. REMNANTS OF CHARLEY WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM CAPE COD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ON NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...TO THE SOUTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE OVER ALASKA. ...CENTRAL STATES... EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /500 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C/ AND 40 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY RATHER DRY...AT LEAST NARROW TONGUE OF MID 50S DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG LIKELY WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MID DAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER/CORE OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INITIATE AFTER 15/21Z...AS INHIBITION WEAKENS EAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...EAST OF PIERRE SD. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT...AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...AS MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...WESTERN STATES... MOISTURE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN RIDGE...STRONG HEATING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LEE OF THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS...PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAKLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL/STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ...EASTERN STATES... MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AIDED BY FORCING ALONG SEA BREEZES. WEAKLY SHEARED TROPICAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO MARGINALIZE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH FAIRLY LARGE CAPE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOMEWHAT BETTER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CAPE LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG...BUT MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR...AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 12:46:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 07:46:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408151245.i7FCjbV13203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151243 SWODY1 SPC AC 151242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DVL 30 NNW GFK 35 NE BJI 40 E BRD 25 NNE FRM 15 S OFK 20 WSW MCK 20 NE AKO 15 WSW BFF 35 SSE RAP 25 NNE MBG 30 SW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 45 W RHI 15 E LSE 10 SW P35 30 ENE CNU 15 NNE MKO 15 E MLC 10 SW DAL 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 ESE EDW 55 N BFL 25 WSW TVL 25 NNW SVE 30 SSE LMT 20 SE MFR 40 NNW MFR 10 S PDX 45 E AST 25 S UIL ...CONT... 45 N FCA 3DU 40 NNE WEY 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW 40 WSW RWL 40 S RWL 40 NW LAR 20 NNW DGW 45 NE 81V 50 NNE REJ 45 E GDV 25 WNW SDY 60 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 25 E ABY 40 E LGC 35 N GAD 60 N CSV 30 NW HTS 25 ENE CMH 40 N CLE ...CONT... 15 W MSS 25 S BTV 20 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN ND/MN INTO NERN CO... ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS UPPER VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA...DROPPING SEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN ND INTO MN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 30-60M HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF SFC FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...INITIALLY ROOTED WITHIN/NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITHIN STRONGER ZONE OF ASCENT ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN THIS EVENING. FARTHER SW...SFC FRONT MAY AID IN GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE ISOLATED...BUT WITHIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THESE STORMS WOULD PROPAGATE SHARPLY SSWWD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. ...PACIFIC NW... SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXIMA WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE PERIOD. THESE FEATURES WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9 C/KM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER ACTIVITY MAY PROVE TOO MARGINAL AND SPARSE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 16:34:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 11:34:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408151634.i7FGYFV11837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151631 SWODY1 SPC AC 151629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DVL 30 NNW GFK 10 NE BJI BRD 25 NW MKT 25 W SPW 10 NNE LBF 40 SE AIA 20 E CDR 35 N PHP 25 NNE MBG 20 SSW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 40 S GTF 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW 25 WNW RWL 20 ESE RWL 50 NNW LAR 65 SSE 81V 25 S Y22 25 ESE SDY 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU 15 E LSE 55 WNW LWD 20 S MHK 50 SSE PNC 20 NE ADM 15 NNE FTW 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL 35 N RAL 10 N EDW 35 ENE BFL 35 WSW TVL 40 NE RBL 25 ENE MHS 20 SE MFR 50 N MFR 15 NE PDX 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25 E ABY 30 SSW ATL 25 NNE CHA 25 ESE LOZ 25 NW HTS 25 NE DAY 30 ENE LAF 20 SSW AZO 15 E DTW ...CONT... 15 W MSS 10 E MPV 20 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...NRN PLAINS... 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TOWARD THE DAKOTAS/MN. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW IS INCREASING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TO SPREAD NEWD AS FAR AS NE SD/WRN MN BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEALED 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND A PORTION OF THIS LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM NE CO TO SE SD BY THIS EVENING INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BROKEN BAND OF ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIFFERENTIAL PVA. STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SD WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND DAYTIME HEATING/ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD INTO WRN MN DURING THE EVENING AS THE REGION OF STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES LATER TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 20:06:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 15:06:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408152006.i7FK6PV08334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152001 SWODY1 SPC AC 151958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DVL 25 NNW GFK 10 NE BJI 15 SSE BRD 30 NNW MKT 20 E OTG 20 SE YKN 10 NNE LBF 20 NNE SNY 60 E DGW 40 WNW PIR 20 SSW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL 35 N RAL 10 N EDW 35 ENE BFL 35 WSW TVL 40 NE RBL 25 ENE MHS 20 SE MFR 50 N MFR 15 NE PDX 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 50 NW HVR 40 S GTF 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW 25 WNW RWL 20 ESE RWL 20 NW DGW 60 NE DGW 25 S Y22 25 ESE SDY 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU 15 E LSE 55 WNW LWD 20 S MHK 50 SSE PNC 20 NE ADM 15 NNE FTW 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25 E ABY ATL 25 SSW TYS 35 ESE 5I3 30 E PKB 30 SE MIE 30 ENE LAF 25 SE AZO 10 WSW MTC ...CONT... 20 WSW MSS 15 WNW RUT 15 SSW EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...NRN PLAINS REGION... WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW / VORT MAX NOW MOVING SSEWD INTO NRN ND. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY -- FROM SRN SD WSWWD INTO SERN WY -- WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO SERN WY / NERN CO AS UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF MN / IA AND LATER WI AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FROM SRN SD WSWWD -- WHERE CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING -- IS RELATIVELY WEAK...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER N AND E...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FEATURE SPREADS SEWD. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT MORE NUMEROUS SEVERE REPORTS...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL -- LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MO / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 01:00:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 20:00:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408160059.i7G0xcV23268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E BIS 55 NE MOT 60 NNW TVF 35 SW HIB 40 NNW MKT 40 NW BBW 20 N GLD 35 NE LIC 15 NNW DEN 35 E CDR 20 N ATY 15 E BIS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N FCA BTM 35 ESE WEY WRL RWL LAR 30 S PHP 20 S ABR BIS 50 NNW MOT ...CONT... 90 E ELO 50 W RHI LNR 45 N CNK ICT 25 SSE CSM MWL 35 S BWD 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL EDW 40 NW TVL 35 WNW SVE LMT RDM 40 W YKM 65 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 25 SW AGS 45 SW FLO RDU RIC PHL 10 WSW AVP 40 ENE UCA 15 ESE GFL 15 E GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ND/MN SWWD INTO CO... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO EXTREME NERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDED THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER ALSO SUPPORTS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN WRN NEB MOVING INTO NERN CO LATER THIS EVENING. ...ND/MN... WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW...WITH -14 TO -16C 500 MB TEMPERATURES...WAS LOCATED IN ND THIS EVENING. CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL MN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SEWD AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. DESPITE THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. ...SERN CO/SWRN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES... STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE IN THIS AREA...THOUGH PRESENCE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID IN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AMA EVENING SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG AND THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WAS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK FORCING...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY FOR HAIL IS FORECAST. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WIND OR SEVERE HAIL EVENTS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD AID IN THE STORMS WEAKENING QUICKER TONIGHT THAN THEY DID SATURDAY NIGHT. ..IMY.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 05:15:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 00:15:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408160514.i7G5ErV01695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160512 SWODY1 SPC AC 160509 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LIC 15 NNE MCK 25 NE OFK RWF 25 NNW MKT ALO 30 SW OTM 15 SW STJ 30 NE SLN 55 SSW HLC 10 W LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML 15 SSE PSM ...CONT... 40 SSW WAL 35 SSW NHK 30 SW MRB 20 E ERI 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 15 WNW AQQ 15 NE DHN 20 ENE TOI 15 NNW MGM 10 SSE TCL 30 N TCL 20 WSW HSV 35 SW CHA 45 E RMG 35 WNW AGS 35 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTB 20 WNW GTF 35 SSE GTF 3HT 45 SW BIL 20 SE RIW 30 WNW RWL LAR 15 SW SNY 15 W LBF 15 NNW BUB 15 SE 9V9 15 S JMS 15 SSE GFK RRT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX 80 WNW CMX 45 N IWD 40 W CMX MQT 55 E ESC 20 NW HTL 45 NNE GRR 10 SW MVN 55 SE HRO 15 N TXK 15 N DUA 55 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 50 WSW GBN 30 ESE BLH 45 SW EED 35 ENE DAG 15 NNE NID 50 E FAT 60 S TVL 20 ESE TVL 35 SE SVE 25 ESE MHS MFR 15 ESE SLE 45 SSE OLM 20 N SEA 15 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN ND...SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN SWWD INTO NERN NEB...AND THEN STRETCH WSWWD INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM ORE SEWD INTO AZ/NM. ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY... ONGOING CONVECTION OVER ERN SD/SRN MN IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...BUT STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG INSOLATION DURING MOST OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO WARM THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG ARE PROGGED AND STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND EVENTS. THE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SEWD INTO NERN KS/MO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. THE UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND MID LEVEL FLOW AT 20 KT SUGGESTING THE MCS WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE. ...S CENTRAL NEB/NWRN KS/ERN CO... INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER. STRONG HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM 21-03Z. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SWRN STATES... THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA. ..IMY.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 12:51:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 07:51:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408161251.i7GCpAV05914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161248 SWODY1 SPC AC 161245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LIC 15 SE AKO 30 SSE LBF 25 ENE GRI 30 SW SUX 35 E BKX 15 N RWF 25 SSW MSP 15 N ALO 40 WSW OTM 20 ENE TOP 35 SSW RSL 35 NNW LAA 10 W LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW WAL 35 SSW NHK 30 SW MRB 20 E ERI 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 55 N BML 15 SSE PSM ...CONT... 15 WNW AQQ 15 NE DHN 20 ENE TOI 15 NNW MGM 10 SSE TCL 30 N TCL 20 WSW HSV 35 SW CHA 45 E RMG 35 WNW AGS 35 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 50 WSW GBN 30 ESE BLH 45 SW EED 35 ENE DAG 15 NNE NID 50 E FAT 60 S TVL 20 ESE TVL 35 SE SVE 25 ESE MHS MFR 15 ESE SLE 45 SSE OLM 20 N SEA 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE HVR 25 WNW HVR 50 SW HVR 35 NNW 3HT 45 SW BIL 20 SE RIW 30 WNW RWL LAR 15 SW SNY 15 W LBF 15 NNW BUB 15 SE 9V9 15 S JMS 15 SSE GFK RRT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX 80 WNW CMX 45 N IWD 40 W CMX MQT 55 E ESC 20 NW HTL 45 NNE GRR 10 SW MVN 55 SE HRO 15 N TXK 15 N DUA 55 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION APPEAR PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC FRONT WILL LAG UPPER SHORTWAVE SOMEWHAT BUT LIKELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH VERTICAL MIXING AND SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER VEERING AND SPEED SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ERN NEB INTO IA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN KS INTO NERN CO. ...GREAT BASIN/INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A MOISTENING UPPER VORT MAX ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER SOUTH OF RNO. THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEFINED AND APPEARS TO BE AIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MOISTENING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WHERE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS WITH MOST UA SITES DEPICTING AROUND ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN AFTERNOON HEATING MAY NOT ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 16:37:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 11:37:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408161637.i7GGbOV12111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161635 SWODY1 SPC AC 161633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE OLU 10 N SUX 40 E BKX 25 N RWF 20 W MSP 20 SSE RST 35 W CID 10 NNE LWD FNB 15 SSE LNK 25 NE OLU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 35 S DAG 55 N NID 65 SSE TVL 55 SSW SVE 25 SSE MFR 55 SSE EUG 15 NNW BLI ...CONT... 90 NW GGW 30 NE MLS 30 NW 4BQ 35 SSW SHR 35 NNE RWL 35 NNW AKO 25 E LBF 45 ENE BUB 30 WSW YKN 40 SE 9V9 35 NNE 9V9 20 E ABR 45 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45 ESE ANJ 50 W MBS 35 S DEC 20 SE FSM 15 NNW PRX 45 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 30 E RIC 20 E LYH 15 WNW ROA 35 NNW SSU 30 W MGW 30 SW JHW 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 30 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 25 ENE GAD 50 ENE RMG 30 N AHN 40 ESE AGS 35 ENE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB TO SRN MN.... ...SRN MN TO KS AREA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONFIRM THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER ERN MN/CENTRAL IA...WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER CENTRAL KS. THESE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF ASCENT ARE MOVING SE OF THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES...WITH A WEAKER UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEB. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW MN TO ERN NEB...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR WITH 30-50 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER TO THE SW ACROSS KS...WHERE MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW INTO CENTRAL KS. ...SRN NV TO SRN AZ AREA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS WITHIN A BROAD NW-SE SHEAR AXIS...ONE OVER CA/NV BORDER AND THE OTHER OVER SE AZ. MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS ENHANCED ON THE W SIDE OF EACH VORTICITY CENTER /20-30 KT/...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS /12Z DRA AND 14Z TUS/ BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG GUSTS...AND SOME PORTION OF EITHER THE SRN NV OR S CENTRAL/SE AZ AREA MAY STILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. ...PA/NY AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 C WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL PA AND WRN/CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL OVER THIS AREA...THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 20:07:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 15:07:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408162007.i7GK79V07781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162002 SWODY1 SPC AC 161959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE YKN 30 N YKN 35 E BKX 15 SE RWF 40 WSW RST 20 E ALO 35 N OTM 25 S DSM 20 ESE OMA 25 WNW OMA 30 SSE YKN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW EED 60 SSW LAS 20 W DRA 65 WNW P38 15 ENE P38 55 SE SGU 50 NW PRC 10 WSW EED. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E POU 15 N EWR 35 ESE AVP 15 NNE AVP 35 ENE BGM 35 E UCA 15 NE ALB 20 E POU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW GGW 30 NE MLS 30 NW 4BQ 35 SSW SHR 35 NNE RWL 35 NNW AKO 25 E LBF 45 ENE BUB 55 WSW YKN 30 WSW MHE 35 NNE HON 30 SSE JMS 45 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45 ESE ANJ 50 W MBS 35 S DEC 20 SE FSM 15 NNW PRX 45 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM 35 WSW PMD 60 NNW NID 65 SSE TVL 55 SSW SVE 25 SSE MFR 55 SSE EUG 15 NNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 30 E RIC 20 E LYH 15 WNW ROA 35 NNW SSU 30 W MGW 30 SW JHW 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 30 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 25 ENE GAD 50 ENE RMG 30 N AHN 40 ESE AGS 35 ENE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SWRN MN AND WRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NV/NWRN AZ AND EXTREME SWRN UT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NY...NRN NJ AND NERN PA... ...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... STRONG INSTABILITY WAS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA AND SWRN MN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF SFC LOW AND FRONT ACROSS SWRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN DRIFT S/SEWD INTO IA. ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER SUSTAINED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. WEAK SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY ABOUT 30KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE HIGH WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN KS... SOMEWHAT WEAKER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A NUMBER OF SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN STRONG DIURNAL FORCING...EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK. ...SRN NV/NWRN AZ... BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN BASE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SRN NV THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A NUMBER OF STRONG TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT...SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM... SITUATION ACROSS THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON IS SIMILAR TO FARTHER NW. WEAKER IMPULSE AND MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP...WAS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS STORMS OF MULTICELL/PULSE NATURE. GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE. ...SERN NY/NERN PA/NRN NJ... MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EVENING. STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM NERN PA/NRN NJ...ACROSS SERN NY AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WAS FEEDING INTO TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING TOWARD AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40KT. GIVEN FAVORABLE ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING SERN NY...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A FEW MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 00:58:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 19:58:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408170058.i7H0w5V14207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170055 SWODY1 SPC AC 170053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE OLU 25 SSE FSD 15 S OTG 25 NNW MCW 55 S LSE 20 SW DBQ 35 WNW BRL 25 NNE LWD 35 SE OMA 20 WSW OMA 15 NE OLU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 20 SSW DAG 55 W DRA 25 N RNO 50 S 4LW 55 NE MFR 10 ESE PDX 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 25 NNW CTB 45 ESE LWT 45 WSW 4BQ 60 SSE SHR 30 WSW RWL AKO GRI YKN BKX AXN 30 NNE BRD 25 ENE ELO ...CONT... 55 WNW ANJ BEH 15 WSW MTO STL 25 N OKC 30 NE LTS PVW 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACY 10 NE ABE 25 NNW GFL MPV 30 SW MWN LCI 15 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PFN DHN 40 S MCN 70 ESE MCN 25 ESE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN IOWA... ...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN IA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SWRN MN SWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 0130Z...BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SWD MOVING LINE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WINDS EVENTS. REFERENCE WW 755. ...SERN NEB AND KS... A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT STRONG UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN MAINTAINED...MAINLY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO NWRN KS...OR ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED IN CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING...EXPECT STORMS TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK. ...SRN NV/AZ... WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 50 E TPH AT 00Z AND MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION DEVELOPED AROUND THIS SYSTEM ...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE LOW FROM NORTH OF LAS SEWD TO N OF PHX. CLOUDS AND STORM OUTFLOWS HAVE STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MOST OF SRN NV AND NRN AZ. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STORMS FROM WEST OF PRC TO SAD IS MOVING SWD INTO A HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS A NWD MOVING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD INTERSECT AND WEAKEN STORMS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ...WRN NEW ENGLAND... A LINE OF CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVED EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 05:10:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 00:10:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408170510.i7H5AWV26401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170508 SWODY1 SPC AC 170506 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DGW CDR VTN 45 E ANW 15 SE BUB 20 SE BBW 25 SE LBF IML 25 NNE AKO 50 ENE FCL CYS 40 ESE DGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BLV JEF 45 NNE SZL 15 ESE P35 OTM DBQ 25 SW MSN 35 E MSN MKE BEH SBN LAF MVN 30 SSW BLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 30 SE GBN 50 NW TUS 40 ESE PHX 25 ENE PHX 45 WSW PRC 30 S IGM 40 S LAS 15 SW LAS 10 SE DRA 50 NNE DRA 30 NNW TPH 20 ENE NFL 40 WNW SVE 20 SSW LMT 20 SSW RDM 20 ESE PDX 10 E UIL 30 NNW UIL ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 35 SE HVR 30 NNE LWT 50 NW SHR 10 NE GCC 35 NW PHP 45 ENE PIR 25 ENE ATY 25 NNW FAR 55 WSW DVL 70 NE ISN ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 40 SSW CMH 50 SSE SDF 30 E CKV 45 ENE DYR 40 SSW JBR 55 E FSM 10 SSE FYV JLN 25 E ICT 15 ENE HUT SLN MHK 35 WSW FNB 25 SW BIE 35 WSW MCK 35 NE PUB 35 SSE PUB 25 ENE RTN 10 WSW LVS 65 SSE LVS 15 N CVS 45 ENE HOB 60 SSE MAF 65 SSW SJT 30 S JCT 10 WNW HDO 25 NNW COT 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 30 E DHN 20 ESE LGC 45 E HSV 15 NW CSV 20 NNW 5I3 45 ENE CRW 30 WNW AOO 45 ESE BFD 30 SSE ELM 20 WNW ABE 20 WSW ILG 15 SSW NHK 20 NNE ECG 45 WNW HSE 30 S EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN/CENTRAL NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK FRONT/TROUGH FROM MN INTO NEB WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AND IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EXTEND FROM ERN WI SWWD TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER...AND THEN STRETCH WWD ACROSS NEB BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTING IN MODERATE WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER ERN NV THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD INTO NRN UT. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY... CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/NWRN IL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS IL AND PERHAPS NERN MO BY DAYBREAK. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ELEVATED AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MO NEWD INTO IL AND SERN IA. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...STRONG HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ...WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SWWD STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO MO WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE STRONGLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY LIKELY WILL MOVE MORE SWD THAN EWD...GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/HEATING SHOULD FEED THE STORMS FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY 03Z TO 04Z. ...WRN/CENTRAL NEB... SEVERE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY EVENING. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS MOVING INTO NEB BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WOULD BE SUGGESTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS...IF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE MAINTAINED. MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG MAY ALSO SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ...GREAT BASIN AREA... PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW AND MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND PROFILES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL REPORTS. WHERE STRONG HEATING OCCURS...RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...A COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..IMY.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 12:45:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 07:45:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408171245.i7HCjjV04942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171243 SWODY1 SPC AC 171241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IML 45 NNW AKO 25 NNE CYS 40 ESE DGW 15 N CDR 15 NNW VTN 40 E ANW 20 SE BUB 35 S BBW 15 SW IML. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JEF 40 NW COU 25 WSW IRK 20 SW OTM 25 SW MSN 30 N MKE 45 N GRR 10 ENE LAN 15 SSE JXN 20 NNE FWA 30 NNE HUF 20 ENE SLO 25 SSW BLV 15 E JEF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 NW PHX 20 E IGM 15 NNW DRA 30 S NFL 40 NW 4LW 10 ESE PDX 35 NW UIL ...CONT... 45 NE HVR 35 N LWT 40 E 3HT 25 NE SHR 20 NNE RAP 50 ENE PIR 40 NE ATY 35 W AXN 25 E FAR 40 SW GFK 25 N P24 45 ENE ISN 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 35 ESE LUK 25 SE CKV 30 SW DYR 15 SE HRO 40 E ICT 50 NNE DDC 30 E LAA 40 NNW CAO 45 WSW DHT 50 SW CDS 10 SSE ABI 30 NNW HDO 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW 25 SSE ANB 20 WNW TYS 30 NE CRW 30 SSW DUJ 35 ESE BFD 25 NE IPT 10 S AVP 30 SSW ABE 10 NE ORF 35 S EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL IA EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD AS A SFC LOW NEAR DES MOINES MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MO WILL ADVECT NWD INTO IL AND SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH NEAR 70 F...YIELDING MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO ERN IA AND WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON... AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -11 TO -12 C AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES CONSIDERING LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 800 METERS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MAY AFFECT NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. BUT THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MID-EVENING AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SUNNY SKIES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEB. IN ADDITION...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN FAR NWRN NEB WHICH WILL FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING STORM INITIATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AS IT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADS SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 16:38:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 11:38:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408171638.i7HGcQL14428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171634 SWODY1 SPC AC 171632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MHN 20 S AIA 20 NNW BFF 40 W CDR 40 NNW CDR 30 S PHP 40 NNE VTN 40 ENE ANW 30 WNW BUB 30 SW MHN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE JEF 40 NW COU 25 WSW IRK 10 W OTM 25 SSW MSN 35 NNE MKE MKG 20 NNE AZO 30 SSE AZO 50 S SBN MTO 15 WNW BLV 25 ENE JEF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CLE 25 N BNA 40 E MEM 55 E FSM 10 SSE FYV JLN 10 SSW CNU 30 W ICT 20 WNW HUT SLN 25 NNW TOP 15 ESE FNB 40 SSE OMA 30 E GRI 30 WNW AKO 20 NE COS 20 N TAD 20 NE TCC 40 SSE MAF 30 NE DRT 30 N NIR 30 SW PSX ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 15 E DAG 10 NW TVL 20 SSW LMT 20 E CLM ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 SE LWT 20 NNW 4BQ 50 SSW Y22 20 WSW MBG 50 WSW JMS 55 WNW JMS 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 35 SW TYS 35 N TRI 15 NW DUJ 40 NW SYR ...CONT... 35 W EFK 25 WNW DOV 20 N RIC 40 N RWI ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IL AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE NW NEB AREA THIS EVENING.... ...IL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS EVENING... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER SW MN/ MOVING SEWD...AND THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NRN IL BY MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS SW-NE FROM NE KS ACROSS SE IA TO SE WI...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/IL TOWARD SW LOWER MI. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG FROM NE KS TO WRN/CENTRAL IL...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG AS FAR NE AS SW LOWER MI. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION... WEAK LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND A MESOSCALE BAND OF WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE MO TO SW LOWER MI. 30-40 KT WLY/NWLY FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...NEB/SD AREA... 12Z MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NW NEB TO THE E OF A WEAK LEE CYCLONE OVER SE WY. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD OVER NRN NEB AND SRN SD OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AREA WILL BE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST THAT MUCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 500-1000 J/KG...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE LIMITED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT BEST 50-55 F. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND INVERTED-V PROFILES. ...NRN GREAT BASIN AREA... A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW IS DRIFTING EWD OVER NW UT. A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COVERS MUCH OF UT AND SRN ID...WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EXTREME NE NV/SRN ID/NW UT TODAY. ...SE AZ AREA... A BELT OF 30 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ON THE W SIDE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FROM NE AZ TO SW NM. MODIFYING THE 12Z AZ SOUNDINGS FOR DAYTIME HEATING YIELDS MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS INVOF THE MOGOLLON RIM. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 20:01:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 15:01:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408172001.i7HK1dL11152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171959 SWODY1 SPC AC 171956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW TBN 25 SW SZL 25 ENE MKC 30 SSW OTM 15 NW RFD 30 E MKE 20 E MKG 25 SW FNT 15 SSW ARB 50 S SBN MTO 15 WNW BLV 30 NW TBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MHN 20 S AIA 20 NNW BFF 40 W CDR 40 NNW CDR 30 S PHP 40 NNE VTN 40 ENE ANW 30 WNW BUB 30 SW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 15 E DAG 10 NW TVL 20 SSW LMT 20 E CLM ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 SE LWT 20 NNW 4BQ 50 SSW Y22 20 WSW MBG 50 WSW JMS 55 WNW JMS 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 50 WNW CLE 25 N BNA 10 SSE DYR 15 NNW JLN 40 NNE PNC 35 WSW P28 25 NW LBL 40 SE LAA 25 ENE LAA 50 NE LAA 50 SSE GLD 25 SSE HLC 20 ENE CNK 35 WSW FNB 15 WNW FNB 25 NNW FNB 30 ESE LNK 30 E GRI AKO 25 WSW LIC 35 SSE PUB 20 NE TCC 40 SSE MAF 30 NE DRT 30 N NIR 30 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W EFK 25 WNW DOV 20 N RIC 40 N RWI ILM ...CONT... 25 SSE CEW 35 SW TYS 35 N TRI 15 NW DUJ 40 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/SWRN SD LATE... ...MIDWEST... TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT AXIS FROM WEST/CNTRL IL SWWD INTO NRN MO. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WINDSHIFT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND PASSING UPPER WAVE. AREA PROFILERS AND LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS SPREADING GENERALLY SWD/SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY TENDS TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NWRN NEB/SWRN SD... MIDWEST WINDSHIFT EXTENDS WWD/NWWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT HAS MERGED WITH LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN WY INTO ERN CO. MEANWHILE...STORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS. CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP EWD LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER UT MOVES EAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SHOULD AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DESTABILIZATION INTO WRN NEB. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. ...SOUTHEAST... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...AND POCKETS OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTH INTO FL. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED WET MICROBURSTS. ...SOUTHWEST... MULTICELL STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG THE RIM AND SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SCNTRL AZ THROUGH EVENING. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM STRUCTURE AND UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. NONETHELESS...A COUPLE OF HAIL OR STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY. ...NRN UT/SERN ID... POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING BENEATH UPPER LOW/COLD POOL... AND AREAS OF ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN AND AROUND THE LARGE VORTEX... SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW INTENSE TSTM UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 01:02:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 20:02:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408180102.i7I12ML32760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180059 SWODY1 SPC AC 180057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SGF 40 NNW JLN 10 S OJC 30 ESE BRL 10 NW CGX GRR LAN 10 SE JXN 40 SE FWA 10 NNE DNV DEC 30 NNE POF 35 ESE SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BBW 55 ENE SNY 20 E BFF 35 SW CDR 20 NNE CDR 55 S PHP 45 S 9V9 50 WNW OFK 35 ESE BUB 10 WSW BBW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE AQQ 50 S TYS 15 WNW BLF 25 NE SSU CHO 35 N RIC 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CLE LEX 20 ESE BWG MKL HRO 10 ENE BVO ICT HUT 20 SW MHK MKC BRL 20 S MKG 60 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CTB 20 WNW LWT 35 NW MLS 40 NNE RAP 20 NE PIR 55 NNE ABR 30 SSE ISN 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 S CMX CWA 15 SSW LSE 15 SSE FOD 30 WNW LNK 25 E AKO 20 WNW LIC 15 WSW PUB RTN 30 E TCC MAF 40 NNE DRT 10 NNW COT 25 E CRP ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL 15 WSW NID 20 NW NFL DLS 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SRN MO NEWD INTO SRN MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB... ...MIDWEST... STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MO ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...UPPER FORCING IS WEAK AND STORMS HAVE BEEN THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN. ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THE REST OF NIGHT. ...NWRN NEB/EXTREME SRN SD... SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO WWD INTO WRN NEB...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED. HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER IN SERN WY AND HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN NEB. SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WY CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN/CENTRAL AZ... MULTICELL STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN AZ... THOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS THOSE MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE STORMS WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...EVEN WITH THE LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z-04...THOUGH THE WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. ...NRN NV... UPPER CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER NRN UT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS NRN NV. MORE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED OVER NV EARLIER TODAY AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN UNDER THE CLOUD FILLED LOW IN UT. A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NRN NV... GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...WITH THE STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NERN ND AND NRN MN... UNUSUALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX WILL DIVE SWD TONIGHT FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR THE MANITOBA/ND BY DAYBREAK. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH HUGE HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 70 TO 80 KT SUGGEST STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SO ONLY A 5% THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL FOR LATER TONIGHT. ..IMY.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 01:19:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 20:19:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408180119.i7I1JmL05944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180115 SWODY1 SPC AC 180113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SGF 40 NNW JLN 10 S OJC 30 ESE BRL 10 NW CGX GRR LAN 10 SE JXN 40 SE FWA 10 NNE DNV DEC 30 NNE POF 35 ESE SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BBW 55 ENE SNY 20 E BFF 35 SW CDR 20 NNE CDR 55 S PHP 45 S 9V9 50 WNW OFK 35 ESE BUB 10 WSW BBW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE AQQ 50 S TYS 15 WNW BLF 25 NE SSU CHO 35 N RIC 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CLE LEX 20 ESE BWG MKL HRO 10 ENE BVO ICT HUT 20 SW MHK MKC BRL 20 S MKG 60 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CTB 20 WNW LWT 35 NW MLS 40 NNE RAP 20 NE PIR 55 NNE ABR 30 SSE ISN 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 S CMX CWA 15 SSW LSE 15 SSE FOD 30 WNW LNK 25 E AKO 20 WNW LIC 15 WSW PUB RTN 30 E TCC MAF 40 NNE DRT 10 NNW COT 25 E CRP ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL 15 WSW NID 20 NW NFL DLS 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SRN MO NEWD INTO SRN MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB... ...MIDWEST... STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MO ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...UPPER FORCING IS WEAK AND STORMS HAVE BEEN THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN. ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THE REST OF NIGHT. ...NWRN NEB/EXTREME SRN SD... SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO WWD INTO WRN NEB...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED. HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER IN SERN WY AND HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN NEB. SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WY CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN/CENTRAL AZ... MULTICELL STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN AZ... THOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS THOSE MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE STORMS WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...EVEN WITH THE LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z-04...THOUGH THE WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. ...NRN NV... UPPER CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER NRN UT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS NRN NV. MORE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED OVER NV EARLIER TODAY AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN UNDER THE CLOUD FILLED LOW IN UT. A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NRN NV... GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...WITH THE STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NERN ND AND NRN MN... UNUSUALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX WILL DIVE SWD TONIGHT FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR THE MANITOBA/ND BY DAYBREAK. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH HUGE HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 70 TO 80 KT SUGGEST STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SO ONLY A 5% THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL FOR LATER TONIGHT. ..IMY.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 05:34:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 00:34:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408180534.i7I5YXL21542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180532 SWODY1 SPC AC 180529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CLE 25 E MIE CMI 35 NNW COU STJ 25 SSE OMA 20 SSE MSP 15 NW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ECG 45 W RIC 20 SE CXY 10 NNW ABE 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 30 SW MCN 45 S AHN 25 WSW AND 50 WSW AVL 20 SSW TYS 45 ENE HSV 15 WSW MSL 40 NNE UOX 40 SW DYR 35 SW PAH 30 NNE PAH 20 ESE MVN 10 NE SLO STL 35 WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 15 ENE DUA 30 ENE CLL 30 SSW BPT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 25 NNW GBN 60 SE EED 40 NW IGM 25 ESE DRA 30 SSW BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW CDR 45 NNW VTN 25 W MHE 45 N AXN 30 NE RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO IA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UNUSUALLY INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO KS/SERN CO BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO WRN TX...WITH RIDGES LOCATED ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND CA. ...IA NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA...MODELS SHOW 24 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS FROM 120 TO 200 M. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 70 TO 80 KT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO BE ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WI INTO SRN ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NWRN MN...SHOULD MOVE INTO WI DURING THE MORNING AND INTO NWRN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPHS SHOW STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-60 KT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...THE STRONG DYNAMICS...70-80 KT WIND MAX AND STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER... THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING LINE...SO THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA...EWD INTO NWRN OH...STORMS CURRENTLY IN NRN NEB/SRN SD ARE FORECAST TO BE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH DIURNAL HEATING... THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 19-03Z. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PROMOTING STRONG HEATING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE WEAK. DESPITE THE WEAK DYNAMICAL LIFTING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GREAT LAKES AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...FL NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 4-5C/KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 500-700 MB AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..IMY.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 13:01:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 08:01:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408181301.i7ID1QL01402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181258 SWODY1 SPC AC 181256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLE 40 ESE FWA CMI 35 NNW COU STJ 25 SSE OMA 20 SSE MSP 15 NW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ECG 45 S RIC 35 E CHO 30 E HGR 15 WSW ABE 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 25 NNW GBN 60 SE EED 40 NW IGM 25 ESE DRA 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW CDR VTN 20 SSE MHE 45 W BRD 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 20 WNW PFN 30 SW MCN 45 S AHN 25 WSW AND 50 WSW AVL 40 SSW TYS 25 NW RMG 40 S MSL 15 NNW TUP 40 SW DYR 35 SSE CGI 25 NW PAH 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BLV 20 WSW STL 35 WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 10 ENE DUA 30 ENE CLL 35 NNE HOU 25 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...UPPER MIDWEST... A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD INTO NEB...IA AND WI THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND TEMPS AROUND 80 F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NE MN SHOULD EXPAND SWD ACROSS WI AS INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS IA WHERE ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN IA AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS WI WITH 30 TO 40 KT ACROSS IA...IL AND IND. INITIALLY...THE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI AND THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE GREATER. EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL AREAS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR PRESENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS IA AND SE NEB AS THE CAP WEAKENS BY EARLY EVENING. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS MI..SERN WI INTO IL AND IND THIS EVENING. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES WILL REINFORCE UPPER 60 AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS SHOULD HELP INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MD SHOW LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 9.0 C/KM WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB TODAY REACHING NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK SHEAR. STILL...LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 13:15:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 08:15:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408181317.i7IDH7L08052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181311 SWODY1 SPC AC 181309 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLE 40 ESE FWA CMI 35 NNW COU STJ 25 SSE OMA 20 SSE MSP 15 NW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ECG 45 S RIC 35 E CHO 30 E HGR 15 WSW ABE 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 25 NNW GBN 60 SE EED 40 NW IGM 25 ESE DRA 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW CDR VTN 20 SSE MHE 45 W BRD 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 20 WNW PFN 30 SW MCN 45 S AHN 25 WSW AND 50 WSW AVL 40 SSW TYS 25 NW RMG 40 S MSL 15 NNW TUP 40 SW DYR 35 SSE CGI 25 NW PAH 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BLV 20 WSW STL 35 WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 10 ENE DUA 30 ENE CLL 35 NNE HOU 25 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... CORRECTED TO FLIP SIG WIND LINE ...UPPER MIDWEST... A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD INTO NEB...IA AND WI THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND TEMPS AROUND 80 F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NE MN SHOULD EXPAND SWD ACROSS WI AS INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS IA WHERE ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN IA AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS WI WITH 30 TO 40 KT ACROSS IA...IL AND IND. INITIALLY...THE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI AND THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE GREATER. EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL AREAS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR PRESENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS IA AND SE NEB AS THE CAP WEAKENS BY EARLY EVENING. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS MI..SERN WI INTO IL AND IND THIS EVENING. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES WILL REINFORCE UPPER 60 AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS SHOULD HELP INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MD SHOW LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 9.0 C/KM WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB TODAY REACHING NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK SHEAR. STILL...LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 16:38:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 11:38:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408181638.i7IGcRL14894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181635 SWODY1 SPC AC 181633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLE 60 W UNI 35 N LEX BMG 45 NNW COU STJ OMA 40 ESE MSP 15 NW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW CDR VTN 10 SW MHE 20 WNW BRD 40 NNW ELO ...CONT... 20 E PNS 25 ENE CSG 45 ESE ATL 30 NW AHN 60 S TYS 25 ESE CHA 35 NW BHM 20 WSW TUP 20 E JBR 20 SW CGI 35 W MDH 45 SW STL 35 WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 10 ENE DUA 25 NNW LFK 50 N BPT 40 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 20 SSE YUM 35 WSW BLH 35 N TRM 15 NNE DAG 15 NNE NID 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AREA.... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AREA... AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ESEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD WI/MI PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 100 M HEIGHT FALLS AT INL IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SWD ACROSS SD AND SEWD ACROSS MN AS OF MID MORNING...AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO KS BY TONIGHT. A BAND OF ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM IA ACROSS NRN IL TO SRN LOWER MI DENOTES A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 60S/ GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND S OF THIS BAND. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION N OF THIS BAND...WITH ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1250 J/KG EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WI/UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE COLD SIDE TO THE WARM SIDE WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WI/MI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS ROUGHLY MATCH THE MOTION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STORMS REMAINING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG LINEAR FORCING...AND A NARROW INSTABILITY CORRIDOR SHOULD INSTEAD FAVOR SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI...AND THEN SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI/NRN IL/NRN INDIANA BY LATE THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE IA/MO BORDER AREA EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IL AND INDIANA TO WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ...ATLANTIC COAST AREA... MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST PROFILES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM FL NWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH LESSER INSTABILITY FARTHER N INTO NY. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL IS MODEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NY...AND WEAK FARTHER S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/FL. LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES AND SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ...AZ RIM COUNTRY... 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA CONTINUE TO SHOW A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE E OF ITS POSITION FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUS THE STRONGER STORMS /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS/ MAY BE CONFINED MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/MEAD.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 01:10:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 20:10:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408190110.i7J1AEL26857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190107 SWODY1 SPC AC 190105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ERI 10 SSE HLG 30 SSW HTS 45 N BWG 15 NNE BLV 20 ENE TOP 20 S FNB 20 NNE FNB 35 ENE OTM 45 SE MKE 20 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CAR 35 NNW PWM 30 NW BOS 15 NNW BID ...CONT... 40 WNW CTY 55 ESE MCN 25 S TYS 20 ESE BWG 20 S BLV 20 SSW SZL 35 WSW CNU 35 NE OKC 30 NNE DAL 25 NNW LFK 30 SSE LCH ...CONT... 20 SSE YUM 35 WSW BLH 35 N TRM 15 NNE DAG 15 NNE NID 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 10 ENE HLN 35 NW RIW 50 NNW LAR 35 ESE SNY 10 S GRI 20 N CID 25 NW TVC 20 N ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY... ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... EARLY THIS EVENING A SEWD MOVING PRE-FRONTAL COLD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE MI SWWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN IA THEN WSWWD THROUGH NWRN MO AND INTO NRN KS. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND NWWD THROUGH CNTRL IL INTO SERN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. FARTHER N INTO THE GREAT LAKES...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS RESULTING IN MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG. BAND OF STRONGER 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO LINES ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM EXTREME SERN IA SWWD INTO NRN MO. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF W CNTRL IL SEWD INTO S CNTRL IND. ISOLATED HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OUT OF MCS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO W CNTRL IL. DEVELOPING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT THESE STORMS CONTINUING EWD OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DESPITE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...LIMITED INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN OVERALL WEAKENING OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WSWLY WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES. ...CNTRL AND SRN AZ... STORMS THAT INITIATED OVER THE RIM HAVE DEVELOPED ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO SUPPORT SWD PROPAGATION TOWARD THE DESERT VALLEYS DESPITE A SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE MID LEVEL WIND PROFILE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD. ..DIAL.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 05:49:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 00:49:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408190549.i7J5nVL22700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190547 SWODY1 SPC AC 190544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N SAT 45 ENE DRT 55 ENE P07 15 SE INK 35 NNE HOB 25 WSW PVW 25 S CDS 40 NE ABI 25 WNW TPL 35 N SAT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ACY 45 S MRB 15 SSE UNI 30 SSE CMH 20 SSE MFD 10 SE BFD 20 ENE UCA 10 ESE MPV 30 NNW AUG 20 ENE BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CTY 35 W AYS 65 ESE MCN 35 SSE AHN 20 NNE ATL 20 WSW RMG 50 NE HSV 50 SE BNA 50 N CSV 45 SSW LEX 25 SE SDF 35 SW EVV 40 WNW CGI 30 NNW ARG 20 S GWO 10 WNW LUL 30 SW PNS ...CONT... MFE 35 SSW ALI 35 SSE COT 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 40 SE BLH 40 E NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 75 NE MFR 25 SSE DLS 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 25 N SHR 50 NE DGW 30 NW AIA 35 NE SNY 20 WSW IML 15 SSE GLD 50 NNW GCK 55 SSW HLC 40 NNE RSL 25 ESE BIE 20 SE OTM 10 W SBN 25 E DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE NE U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR W TX... ...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES... NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO CONTINUES EWD INTO QUEBEC. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH. WHERE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN PARTS OF THE RISK AREA WITH AOB 1500 J/KG EXPECTED FARTHER N. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REINTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SWLY 30-50 KT FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LINES OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST FARTHER SW OVER THE OH VALLEY ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MORE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO THE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST. ...W TX... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER W TX WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS W TX...NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL AND NRN NM AS SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES SWD. 25 TO 30 KT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH W TX. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 12:56:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 07:56:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408191256.i7JCu4L00729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191253 SWODY1 SPC AC 191251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ACY 45 S MRB 15 SSE UNI 30 SSE CMH 20 SSE MFD 10 SE BFD 20 ENE UCA 10 ESE MPV 30 NNW AUG 20 ENE BHB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE DRT 50 NE P07 10 E INK 35 NNE HOB 30 WSW PVW 40 SSW CDS 25 NW SEP 30 W TPL 20 NNW SAT 45 NE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 25 N SHR 50 NE DGW 30 NW AIA 35 NE SNY 20 WNW IML 45 SSW GLD 50 ESE LAA 30 NW LBL 20 SE GCK 40 S HLC 40 NNE RSL 25 ESE BIE 20 SE OTM 10 W SBN 25 E DTW ...CONT... 15 WNW CTY 35 W AYS 65 ESE MCN 35 SSE AHN 20 NNE ATL 20 WSW RMG 50 NE HSV 50 SE BNA 50 N CSV 45 SSW LEX 15 NW SDF 25 NW EVV 15 N CGI 25 NE JBR 20 S GWO 10 WNW LUL 30 SW PNS ...CONT... MFE 35 SSW ALI 35 SSE COT 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 25 E IPL 55 E DAG 40 E NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 75 NE MFR 25 SSE DLS 35 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... ...NORTHEAST US... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NRN OH AND SRN PA. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA BY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION BY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN WV AND PA AS MID-LEVEL DRYING RESULTS IN PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS COULD ALSO INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN US TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN PA BY 00Z SHOW MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 35 TO 40 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE MATURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE NY AND ERN PA. ...WEST AND CNTRL TX... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE NM AND W TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO WRN OK. A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY EXISTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE NEWD AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS W TX REMAINS LARGELY UNTOUCHED AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM WITH THE STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ACROSS WCNTRL TX. THE 09Z RUC MODEL SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER FAR SE NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD INTO W TX AS SHOWN BY THE ETA. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER W TX BY 00Z WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR REACHING 30 TO 35 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IF MLCAPE EXCEEDS 2000 J/KG ACROSS W TX AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM MAY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ALSO...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY CONGEAL...FORMING AN MCS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MCS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS REACHING WCNTRL TX BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARKS... SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO. SFC HEATING TODAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB JET. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND BRIEF CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE KS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 10 TO 20 KT. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 16:38:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 11:38:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408191638.i7JGc1L13230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191635 SWODY1 SPC AC 191633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MGW 45 W UNI 25 N LUK 30 NW DAY 40 NNW DAY 35 S FDY 30 S YNG PSB 30 NW CXY 10 WNW CXY 20 SSE HGR 20 SW MGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY AYS 50 WNW SAV AGS AHN ATL 25 NE GAD 45 NE HSV 40 NW CSV 40 S LEX LEX 35 NE SDF OWB PAH JBR GWO LUL 30 SSW PNS ...CONT... MFE ALI COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNW YUM 40 W BLH 60 E DAG 40 SSW DRA 65 N DRA TPH 60 ESE BIH 50 N NID 60 S BIH 45 SSW TVL MHS 40 NE BLI ...CONT... 45 NW CTB GTF 3HT BIL AIA 35 NNW IML 35 W EHA EHA GCK RSL CNK FNB 25 S DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OH AND SW PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.... ...OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND AREA... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING ENEWD OVER QUEBEC...AS PART OF A LARGER CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE BELT OF STRONGER /AOA 50 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS IN A CYCLONIC ARC OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD/SEWD ACROSS LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE TOWARD WRN NY. THIS FRONT EXTENDS WWD ACROSS NRN OH/INDIANA TO CENTRAL IL/MO...AND THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND WEAKEN ACROSS NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA AND ONLY A SPORADIC/MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. FARTHER S...SOMEWHAT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING. THE AREA FROM ERN PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND IS ALSO ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...AND WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. GIVEN NO OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE MEDIOCRE INSTABILITY/WIND FIELDS...ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BOTH ISOLATED AND MARGINAL. GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED E-W FRONT FROM CENTRAL OH INTO SW/S CENTRAL PA...WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HEATING. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND 35-45 KT MEAN WINDS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ...TX AREA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM N TX INTO SRN OK...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE W OVER CENTRAL AZ. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS N TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SRN AND ERN FLANK OF THIS CLUSTER WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND MID 70 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS NE TX...WHILE MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CENTRAL TX PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED. THE MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS W/SW TX...BUT THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS THE AZ WAVE APPROACHES. ..THOMPSON/EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 19:59:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 14:59:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408191959.i7JJx6L16898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191951 SWODY1 SPC AC 191949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MGW 45 W UNI 40 W LUK 30 E IND 20 ENE MIE 35 S FDY 30 S YNG 25 ENE PSB 35 NNW CXY 10 WNW CXY 20 SSE HGR 20 SW MGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CTB GTF 3HT BIL AIA 35 NNW IML 35 W EHA EHA GCK RSL CNK FNB 25 S DTW ...CONT... 35 W CTY AYS 50 WNW SAV AGS AHN ATL 25 NE GAD 45 NE HSV 40 NW CSV 40 S LEX LEX 35 NE SDF OWB PAH JBR GWO 20 E LUL 20 SE PNS ...CONT... MFE ALI COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNW YUM 40 W BLH 60 E DAG 30 NNE DAG 35 ESE NID 60 S BIH 45 SSW TVL MHS 40 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL PA... ...OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PORTIONS IND/OH INTO PA -- ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE LARGELY WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...PRESENCE OF 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG/N OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER NE...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS CNTRL NY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO N-CNTRL VT. HERE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAS SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FOR MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2047. ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO AR/LA... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLOWLY TRANSLATING ENEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN TROPICAL/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/ERN TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W-CNTRL TX WHERE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE HAVE LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP. CURRENT FT. WORTH/WACO VWPS INDICATE A ZONE OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN SERN QUADRANT OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEM ALONG/E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 35KTS WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FARTHER W ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKER...HOWEVER STEEPER LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. FOR MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD/S 2046 AND 2048. ...PARTS OF PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS REGION WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG/E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NERN ORE/SERN WA AND NWRN MT...AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER NWRN ORE AND FAR NWRN MT. RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..MEAD.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 00:52:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 19:52:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408200052.i7K0qbL07027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200050 SWODY1 SPC AC 200047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 20 SW ALI 30 NE LRD 70 W COT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNW YUM 40 WNW BLH 50 ESE DAG 35 ESE NID 65 SSW BIH 45 SSW TVL MHS 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 50 ENE GTF 20 E SHR 45 SW DGW 40 ENE DEN 40 S LHX 40 WSW GAG 40 SSW EMP 20 WNW FLV 30 S OTM 25 NW LAF 25 SW FDY 15 N FKL 35 WNW ALB 20 S HUL ...CONT... 30 SE ORF 25 SSE DAN 20 ESE SPA 50 NW AHN 10 NE CHA 20 NNE TRI 20 NE JKL 35 NNW HOP 25 ENE MEM 30 SSE MEI PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CTY 15 ENE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NY SWWD THROUGH NW PA...CNTRL OH AND BEYOND. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUE FROM CNTRL OH EWD THROUGH SRN PA...MD AND NRN VA. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...MAINLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF FORCING ON THE LARGER SCALE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY... STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND...SRN IL AND SRN MO. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MO EWD THROUGH SRN IL AND IND. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FLOW REGIME IS SUCH THAT STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE NEWD OVER TOP OF STALLED BOUNDARY. THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ...TX... THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM W TX JUST S OF MIDLAND EWD THROUGH CNTRL TX S OF KILEEN THEN NEWD INTO NE TX. THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS OVER CNTRL TX WHERE THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. ...WRN U.S... OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE NWLY FLOW REGIME ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 05:48:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 00:48:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408200548.i7K5mAL07100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200545 SWODY1 SPC AC 200543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW P07 10 NE FST 35 NW INK 40 NNW HOB 35 W LBB 10 S ACT 55 SSE AUS 45 WNW NIR 50 SE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CXY 25 ESE BMG 30 WSW IND 20 E LAF 40 N CLE 20 WNW SYR 15 NW AVP 25 WSW CXY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 30 N MRF 45 ESE GDP 15 N GDP 45 ENE ELP 10 ENE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 30 N FAT 40 WNW TVL 30 SSW LMT 35 NNE MFR 35 W RDM 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 45 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 80 ENE HVR 75 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 35 E AIA IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 40 W CSM 15 SW OKC 25 SW BVO 30 ENE CNU 45 S IRK PIA 35 SSE CGX 15 SE DTW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 ESE BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX... ...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG STALLED FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NY SWWD THROUGH SRN OH...SRN IND AND INTO SRN IL AND MO. THIS BOUNDARY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT NWD AS A STRONG 50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR OVER THE OH VALLEY IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING WITH IR TOPS WARMING AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE REGIME. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE THAT ENOUGH BREAKS WILL DEVELOP TO ALLOW SOME SURFACE HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AT BEST EXPECTED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG E-W FRONT IN VICINITY OF AND JUST E OF SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT AND 0-1 KM HELICITY FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STRONGER FORCING AND WIND FIELDS WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN TX WWD THROUGH SWRN TX. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL OK SWWD THROUGH W TX CONTINUES TO SETTLE SWD...AND WRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SW TX. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES MAY BE REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION SPREADING EWD THROUGH W AND CNTRL TX. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN POST FRONTAL REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SW THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG... SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 12:33:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 07:33:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408201233.i7KCXVL08587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201231 SWODY1 SPC AC 201228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S P07 10 NE FST 35 NW INK 40 NNW HOB 35 W LBB ABI AUS 45 SE HDO 40 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GFL LEB CON ORH 30 SSE POU ABE CXY MGW LEX BWG 50 NNW EVV 10 S LAF 40 N CLE 15 NE JHW ITH GFL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE HVR 75 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 35 E AIA IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 40 W CSM 15 SW OKC 25 SW BVO 25 NNW JLN 45 S UIN 40 N LAF 15 SE DTW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 ESE BHB ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 30 N MRF 45 ESE GDP 15 N GDP 45 ENE ELP 10 ENE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 30 N FAT 40 WNW TVL 30 SSW LMT 35 NNE MFR 35 W RDM 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... A BLOCK PERSISTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ALASKA. SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE MERGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FASHION ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL U.S...TO THE SOUTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. MEANWHILE...BELT OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES REMAINS SUPPRESSED RELATIVELY FAR TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST. ...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG SPEED MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN BRANCH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIG FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY IMPULSE...A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENHANCED BY FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK...IS CONTRIBUTING TO UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD NOW GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHICH BOTH ETA/GFS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MIGRATES ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME DISPARITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF MORE RAPID SURFACE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS APPEARS LIKELY IN WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN/EASTERN OHIO. MODELS INDICATE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW...AND VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT IN MOIST AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F DEW POINTS. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW PROGRESSES INTO MORE STABLE/ STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND... MODELS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THESE MAY INTENSIFY INTO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POSSIBLY HAIL....AIDED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET. ...TEXAS... TO THE SOUTH OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY/PECOS VALLEY...WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A HIGH-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL REGIME MAY CREATE SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ...GREAT BASIN... SIGNIFICANT CENTER OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TODAY...THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WHERE VERY WARM/DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS. ..KERR/GUYER.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 16:03:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 11:03:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408201603.i7KG3iL11075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201600 SWODY1 SPC AC 201557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S P07 10 NE FST 35 NW INK 55 N HOB 30 WSW LBB 35 SSW ABI 25 N AUS 45 ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW GFL 15 SW MWN 15 NNW PSM 20 SSE BOS 20 NNE JFK 30 NNW PHL 35 E HGR 20 W EKN 50 W HTS 40 WSW DAY 35 ESE FWA 20 SSW TOL 30 NNW CLE 25 SSW BUF 30 W SYR 35 NW GFL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 80 WNW MLS 35 ESE SHR 25 W RAP 55 S PHP 30 NE MHN 10 SSE LBF 35 SSW MCK 60 ENE LAA 20 WSW LBL 20 SE GAG 35 S END 25 SW BVO 25 NNW JLN 10 W UIN 35 S CGX MTC ...CONT... 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 50 NNE SAC 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHWESTERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW SFC/ALOFT OVER HUDSON BAY SLOWLY FILLING AND MOVING NEWD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO STRONG WLYS ON S SIDE OF LOW AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ME WSWWD JUST N OF ALB AND ACROSS NWRN PA THEN WSWWD TO WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ECENTRAL MO. FROM MO LOW FRONT EXTENDS SWWD TO SRN OK AND WRN TX. S OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES E OF APPALACHIANS AS SFC TEMPS WARM THRU THE LOW/MID 80S. A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. ONE IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN TX WHILE ANOTHER NOTICEABLE IN W/V IMAGERY DROPS SEWD INTO NRN NV. ...NERN U.S... REF MCD 2056 HAVE SHIFTED THE SEVERE EMPHASIS EWD TO AREA OF BEST HEATING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY S OF STALLED FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS/PCPN OVER LOWER OH VALLEY. STRONG JET MAX ROTATING EWD ON THE S SIDE OF DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WILL PROVIDE 40-50 KT OF SHEAR AS FAR S AS VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT NERN U.S. STRONG HEATING OCCURRING S OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH MINIMAL CIN REMAINING AS OF 16Z AS MUCAPES CLIMB TO AOA 3000 J/KG. WITH DOMINANT WLY COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...THUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TERRAIN FEATURES AND SUBTLE BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF STALLED FRONT AND GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE 30-40 KT STEERING FLOW...WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY OF 6-6.5 C/KM AND WET BULB ZEROS ABOVE 10K FT LESS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. 20 KT OF SHEAR IN THE SFC-1KM LAYER ALONG WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WHICH WILL NOT ONLY ENHANCE THREAT OF WIND/HAIL BUT RESULT IN A THREAT OF A COUPLE TORNADOES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STORMS LIKELY EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINES...CLUSTERS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL AFTER DARK. ...TX... BOUNDARIES BOTH FRONTAL AND THOSE REMAINING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKEST CAP IN SWRN TX WILL BE LOCATED ON SRN FRINGE OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WLYS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NWRN TX ATTM. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...PULSE SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPES TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER DARK GIVEN THE MARGINAL UPPER SUPPORT AND MINIMAL SHEAR. ...NRN NV/NWRN UT... WEAK VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD INTO THIS AREA ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED STORMS AND THREAT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 19:35:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 14:35:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408201935.i7KJZmL13837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201934 SWODY1 SPC AC 201931 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW P07 10 SW FST 30 NNW HOB 40 W LBB 40 W ABI 35 WNW CLL 45 ESE AUS 10 E SAT 45 SE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ACY 35 SSW CHO 15 ENE BKW 30 S PKB 35 NNE ZZV 20 S ROC 15 WNW LEB 30 SSE AUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TUP 30 NNE TUP 60 N MSL 20 SE BNA 30 SSW CSV 15 W RMG 20 SW ANB 30 WSW TCL 25 S TUP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 50 N GGW 80 WNW MLS 35 ESE SHR 25 W RAP 55 S PHP 30 NE MHN 10 SSE LBF 35 SSW MCK 60 ENE LAA 20 WSW LBL 20 SE GAG 35 S END 15 N TUL 10 S JLN 45 NE VIH 20 ENE CMI 35 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 50 NNE SAC 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 50 ENE CRP 35 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SRN TN AND NRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...DELMARVA INTO NEW ENGLAND... 18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE FROM CON SWWD TO NEAR IPT TO A WEAK MESOLOW N OF ZZV. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE OH VALLEY TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE CAP HAS BEEN LOCALLY ERODED FROM PARTS OF CNTRL PA/S-CNTRL NY NEWD INTO NRN MA/VT. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE SAME GENERAL AREAS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN VEERED TO WLY OR SWLY...PRESENCE OF 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS OF WV/WRN VA MAY POSE AN DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN VA. THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DICTATES INCLUSION OF CATEGORICAL RISK. ...SRN TN/NRN AL... POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EVOLVING FROM W OF MSL TO W OF TCL. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITHIN A ZONE OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS. MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...TX... PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM E-CNTRL NM EWD ACROSS N TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM N OF CLL TO N OF AUS TO SW OF SJT. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNABLE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES...IT APPEARS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR UPSLOPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/ERN NM WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR THE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT /PER 19Z SJT VWP/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...GREAT BASIN... STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS NRN NV. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..MEAD.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 01:08:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 20:08:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408210108.i7L188L09944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210106 SWODY1 SPC AC 210103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FST 25 E INK 35 NNW MAF 40 SW ABI 20 SSE ACT 55 SE AUS 50 ENE COT 40 ENE DRT 25 ENE FST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DOV 10 W NHK 25 SSE MRB 40 E AOO 45 ENE BFD 25 S UCA 10 SSE RUT 20 WNW PWM 35 SE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 55 N GGW 35 N BIL 20 ESE WRL 60 WSW RAP 40 NE AIA 35 ENE AKO 25 W LHX 30 WSW DHT 20 ENE CDS 10 NNE ADM 35 W UNO 40 NNE EVV 35 WNW CMH ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW DMN 45 NNW DUG 55 E BLH 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 40 W TVL 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SW AND S CNTRL TX... ...NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MAINE SWWD THROUGH SE NY...NRN PA AND CNTRL OH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO CNTRL PA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A BROAD FETCH OF 45-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER ERN CANADA HAS MAINTAINED SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED MOVING INTO WRN PA. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ENHANCE LIFT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO MID-LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING SUGGESTS OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ...TX... A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN TX N OF LUFKIN WWD TO S OF SAN ANGELO AND FARTHER W INTO SWRN TX JUST S OF MIDLAND. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST OVER NERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK...SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG ACTIVITY CAN PERSIST GIVEN NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENT RADAR DATA SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER MASON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES HAVE BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING...AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 10-15 KT MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW TO SUSTAIN SEVERE STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. ...SERN U.S... CLUSTERS OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF AL/GA AND SRN MS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 05:42:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 00:42:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408210542.i7L5gxL29433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210540 SWODY1 SPC AC 210538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW ANJ 35 SSE FRM 45 WSW YKN 35 ESE PHP 10 ESE REJ 10 WNW GDV 60 E BIL 30 SE WRL 20 NNE SNY 30 S HLC 40 WNW GAG 10 ENE CSM 30 SSW MLC 35 NE LIT 20 ESE MKL 20 NNE JKL 30 NW MSV 25 NNW BML ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 65 NNW SVC 25 ENE PRC 55 WSW LAS 60 ENE MER 20 SE MHS 30 SSW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. VEERING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE EWD OFF NERN U.S. SEABOARD EARLY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SRN STREAM IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. MOREOVER-LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE FRONT ACROSS TX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER... DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN ON FRIDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE MAY SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM AND IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING. SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO S OF COLD FRONT IN TX...AND THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR RICHER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD INTO THIS AREA. THEREFORE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS. STILL...MID LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED CONVECTION ABOVE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DIAL.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 12:58:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 07:58:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408211258.i7LCwkL27801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211256 SWODY1 SPC AC 211253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 45 NE RWI NHK 25 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W ANJ 30 W OSH 30 NE ALO 25 WNW DSM 45 WSW YKN 40 SE PHP 15 ESE REJ 70 WSW DIK 35 NNW SHR 45 NW RWL 25 SE FCL 20 SSE GLD 55 SW HLC 15 SW DDC 60 N CDS 35 S LTS 30 WSW ADM 30 NNE HOT 15 SE MKL 35 NNW JKL 10 W BFD 25 SSE EFK 30 S HUL ...CONT... 20 ESE PSX 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSE ELP 45 E DMN 35 ESE PRC 50 WSW LAS 55 SE TVL 60 SW SVE 30 SSW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN PARTS OF NC/VA INTO DELMARVA... ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... EARLY VSBL SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF HEATING THIS MORNING FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO DELMARVA/SRN NJ. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. GIVEN HEATING... DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED POOR LAPSE RATES INLAND...LIKELY A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS. HOWEVER...MOREHEAD CITY AND WALLOPS ISLAND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND IT IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS...TSTMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS/COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASING WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALONG THE COAST...HAVE OPTED TO ADD A SMALL SLGT RISK FROM NERN NC NWD THROUGH SERN VA INTO THE DELMARVA AREA FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MIAMI AND TAMPA EXHIBIT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 2 INCHES WITH INDICATIONS OF LESS SATURATED AIR CENTERED NEAR H7. H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 8C COUPLED WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WITH SBCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 10C. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO/ WATERSPOUT. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LONG-LIVED TSTM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE TX PNHDL THIS MORNING SEEMS TO BE TIED WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL JET STREAK/DARKENING MOVING THROUGH SRN NM. THE TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED FEATURE WILL BE ENTERING A MORE CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD WEAKEN. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL FEATURES ARE APT TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...AIDING IN AN INCREASED SLY FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THIS WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN OR ADVECT THE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH. MODIFYING THE MIDLAND SOUNDING FOR 91/62 YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2100 J/KG AND SIMILAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN TX INTO ERN NM/SRN CO. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY GIVEN WEAKENING BOUNDARIES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CORRESPONDINGLY WEAK... INDICATIVE OF MAINLY MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES. BUT...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL STILL MAKE ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER SRN SASK AND MT THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE DAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND MN TONIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRONG THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. WHILE THIS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF THE TSTMS...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD AUGMENT DOWNDRAFT/ ISOLD DAMAGING WIND PRODUCTION. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 16:11:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 11:11:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408211611.i7LGBPL28680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211608 SWODY1 SPC AC 211605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ILM 25 NE FAY 20 NE RDU 25 S DCA 30 WNW EWR 30 E POU 20 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 50 ENE PHX 45 N NID 50 SE FAT 25 E MER 30 W TVL 15 NE SVE 85 E 4LW BNO 40 SSW RDM OTH ...CONT... 25 SSE CMX 35 W CWA 20 ENE MCW 35 ENE SUX 50 W YKN 40 SE PHP 40 N RAP 20 N 81V 30 S GCC 45 N LAR CYS 45 NNW IML 25 NNW MCK 50 E LBL 10 WNW CSM 50 ESE SPS 50 ENE PBF 45 E BNA 40 ENE CRW 35 S IPT 10 WNW LEB 35 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING ACROSS CONUS AS DEEP LOW HUDSON BAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM NERN U.S. A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD TO OFF PAC NW COAST BY SUN AM WITH A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV DOWNSTREAM MOVING FROM SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA TO VICINITY NRN MN BY LATE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS EXTENDS FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ALONG APPALACHIANS TRAILING ACROSS NRN AL/TN BORDER CENTRAL AR INTO SWRN TX. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS PRECEDES FRONT SRN ENGLAND SWWD...HOWEVER E OF BLUE RIDGE INTO VA/NC STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE INITIAL CLOUD COVER. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT FROM ERN DELMARVA SWD BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES...HOWEVER STRONG WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BY TONIGHT. SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO WORK NWD TODAY. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN... WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES RISING THRU THE 80S...THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE E OF BLUE RIDGE ATTM WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHILE SFC-1KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT GIVEN THE LARGE INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CAP DISSIPATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. REF MCD 2068 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN NEW ENGLAND AS TD'S TO LOW/MID 70S RESULT IN MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CT/RI WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FROM 40-45KT ALONG WITH SOME VEERING IN LOW LEVELS. PRIMARY THREAT THIS FAR N WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS ERN PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE EWD DURING AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN MCD 2068. ...FL... REF MCD 2067 PULSE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE GREATER ACROSS FL PENINSULA TODAY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN MCD 2067. ...NRN PLAINS... WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM AND INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BASED STORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ND/NRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MINIMAL CAPE PRECLUDES A RISK AREA ATTM. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING NWD WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK...AIR MASS DEVELOPS MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL CAP. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS FAR N AS SERN CO. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 19:48:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 14:48:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408211948.i7LJmcL05727@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211946 SWODY1 SPC AC 211943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE 20 S FAY 25 NE DOV 25 ENE ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW ISP 15 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CMX 35 W CWA 20 ENE MCW 35 ENE SUX 50 W YKN 40 SE PHP 40 N RAP 20 N 81V 30 S GCC 45 N LAR CYS 45 NNW IML 25 NNW MCK 50 E LBL 10 WNW CSM 50 ESE SPS 50 ENE PBF 45 E BNA 40 ENE CRW 35 S IPT 10 WNW LEB 35 NW EPM ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 50 ENE PHX 45 N NID 50 SE FAT 25 E MER 30 W TVL 15 NE SVE 85 E 4LW BNO 40 SSW RDM OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SRN NJ SWD ALONG THE NC COAST... ...SERN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM N OF BOS TO NEAR ISP. 40-50KT 500MB WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL EWD THROUGH CAPE COD. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2071. ...SERN VA AND ERN NC... ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY SWD ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING FOCUSED ALONG CONFLUENCE LINE AND WITHIN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER CNTRL/SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MANITOBA AND WRN/CNTRL ND. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...THERMAL AXIS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND SWD ACROSS WRN SD. THIS HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. ONGOING BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS W OF THE MO RIVER WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW WSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT AND SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH. DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN/CNTRL MN ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF 12Z DNR/ABQ SOUNDINGS/ IS ALLOWING AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE E OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH A WEAKENING CAP. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG ADJACENT PLAINS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WINDS/HAIL. FARTHER S AND E...MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL/SRN TX. MODIFICATION OF 12Z MAF/DRT SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND A DECREASING CAP. THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILES INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS BEING OBSERVED INVOF THESE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA... AFTERNOON RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES NE-SW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND FROM NE OF ORL TO E OF SRQ. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF ONGOING STORMS. CONTINUED INTERACTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WITH BOTH W AND E SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 01:01:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 20:01:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408220101.i7M11fL02553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220059 SWODY1 SPC AC 220056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE GLD 50 NNW GCK CDS INK 20 NNE P07 40 WSW P07 30 NNE MRF 15 ENE CNM 45 SSW CVS 15 N CAO 15 NNE LAA 30 SSE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW DMN 15 ESE SVC 40 ESE IGM 30 NE BFL 25 E MER 45 WNW TVL 15 ESE LMT 20 WSW BKE 15 W 3DU 40 N 3DU 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 85 NE MQT 35 W CWA 20 ENE MCW 30 NNW OMA 15 NW CNK 40 N P28 20 WNW END 40 SW TUL 45 NNW HOT 15 SE TUP 15 S AVL 20 SSW GSO 20 ENE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO W TX... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED SWD AND WWD ACROSS MUCH OF TX...WITH BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL REGION WWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ARCING NWWD FROM NEAR DRT TO NEAR MAF. SW OF THIS BOUNDARY -- AND NWD INTO ERN CO / WRN KS -- MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS...WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. RELATIVELY WEAK / WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND FIELD IS INDICATED ACROSS W TX WHERE 15 KT SURFACE SELY WINDS BENEATH MID-LEVEL WNWLYS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. LARGE HAIL WITH A COUPLE OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD MAY OFFSET SLOW DIURNAL LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION SUCH THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LINGERS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...ERN CAROLINAS... BROKEN LINE OF WEAKENING STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN NC / NRN SC ATTM...SOUTH OF WHICH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 05:30:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 00:30:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408220530.i7M5UiL17830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220528 SWODY1 SPC AC 220526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W 4BQ 45 SW BIL 30 SSE HLN 30 NNW HLN 30 NW GTF 20 WSW HVR 40 NW GGW 20 NE GDV 55 NW REJ 50 W 4BQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 55 ESE ALM 65 SSW GNT 30 WSW CDC 40 S TVL 50 WNW SVE 30 SSW MHS 55 ESE EKA 15 ENE EKA 40 ENE CEC 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 40 NNE RWF 55 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MTC 30 N BRL 45 SW UIN 20 ESE BLV 40 NNE MKL 15 ENE MSL 35 NNW HSE ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 20 SW SYR 25 NW JHW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE BOUNDARY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SWWD TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW INITIALLY FORECAST NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD DEEPENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB / IA...AND SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ALOFT...STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS S CENTRAL QUEBEC / THE WRN UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SHIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ID AND INTO MT / WY WITH TIME WHILE TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. FURTHER S -- ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY...A GENERALLY WEAK UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST. ...CENTRAL AND ERN MT... QG FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING ACROSS MT AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES IN RESPONSE. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION -- IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED / HIGH-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER / MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH 40 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE / INSTABILITY AND HIGH CLOUD BASES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. BY EARLY EVENING...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. RESULTING WARM ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO ND. DESPITE INCREASINGLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION DECREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ABOVE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITS ANY HAIL POTENTIAL. ...WI / SRN MN / IA AREA... ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE ERN UPPER LAKES / ERN ONTARIO REGION BY AFTERNOON...AND THUS EXPECT WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. NONETHELESS...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SEWD-MOVING FRONT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL NWLYS SHOULD REMAIN NE OF ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...BUT SUFFICIENT FLOW SHOULD EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THIS REGION TO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ANY WIND / HAIL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS STABILIZES. ...HIGH PLAINS... MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITHIN WEAKLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG LEE TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS ACROSS REMNANT OUTFLOW ACROSS CENTRAL / NRN TX. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING...SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL OR PERHAPS WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS...AND THUS A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STABILIZING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 12:59:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 07:59:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408221300.i7MD02L22129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221257 SWODY1 SPC AC 221254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW GGW 20 SSE GDV 30 WNW 4BQ 40 S BIL 20 SE HLN 50 SSW CTB 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 55 ESE ALM 65 SSW GNT 30 WSW CDC 30 S U31 50 WNW SVE 30 SSW MHS 55 ESE EKA 15 ENE EKA 50 E OTH 15 SW AST ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 15 NNW MKT 20 ENE IWD ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 35 ESE MLI 20 NNW IRK 30 WNW COU 10 SSW MVN 30 SW CKV 35 W CSV 45 NW HSS 10 S HKY 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BTV 20 SW SYR 25 NW JHW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MT... ...CNTRL/ERN MT... LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WERE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO ID AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO WRN MT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL GROW INTO NUMEROUS HIGH-BASED TSTMS BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER ERN ID/WRN MT/WRN WY. SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST VCNTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE A ZONE OF NEAR 50F DEW POINTS WILL EXTEND FROM SERN-CNTRL-NCNTRL MT. MLCAPES WILL GENERALLY STAY AOB 1000 J/KG. COMBO OF INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND TSTMS ROOTING INTO A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION/ ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE STORM MODE FAVORING MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES AND PERHAPS ISOLD SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MT AND INTO THE WRN ND AND ADJACENT ALTA/SASK OVERNIGHT. BUT...GIVEN MORE STABLE AIR MASS FARTHER EAST...THE SEVERE RISKS SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. ...UPPER MS VLY AREA... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VLY REGIONS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD...BUT BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN LATER TODAY AND BECOME SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI AND WWD ACROSS NRN IA. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AREA AND MAY AID IN TSTM INITIATION/MAINTENANCE FROM CNTRL/SRN WI WWD INTO NRN IA. SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. MOREOVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THUS...ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE JUSTIFIED. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... INCREASING WLY LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHARPEN THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM SWRN NEB SWD TO THE CAPROCK IN THE TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE... BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE...IF ANY...GREATER COVERAGE WILL BE LOCATED . LATEST SREF OFFERS MANY SOLUTIONS AND APPEARS TO CONFIRM THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE GREATER PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS MAY EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND SWRN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT MULTI-CELL PULSE SEVERE /PERHAPS ISOLD WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS/ COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 16:28:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 11:28:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408221628.i7MGSQL21019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221625 SWODY1 SPC AC 221622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW GGW 20 SSE GDV 30 WNW 4BQ 40 S BIL 40 NNW WEY 30 NNW HLN 55 WNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW END 20 NW FSI 15 SSE LTS 55 NNW CDS 60 S LBL 20 SE LBL 10 NNE DDC 50 ENE DDC 30 SW ICT 25 SSW END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E TOL 25 SSE MMO 30 NNE UIN 25 W STL 20 ENE CGI 60 E MKL 10 S CSV 35 NNE TYS 50 E TRI 25 NE CLT 35 N HSE ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 30 E RWF 20 ENE IWD ...CONT... 15 S ELP 20 ENE TCS 65 SSW GNT 50 E SGU 50 NE DRA 60 SE BIH 35 S BIH 50 WNW BIH 65 ESE TVL 30 NNW U31 40 ENE WMC 70 N WMC 25 N LMT 20 NNE OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MONTANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SRN KS... ...MONTANA... COLD UPR LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN B.C. TODAY WITH ATTENDANT VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV TROUGH INLAND ACROSS WRN WA/OR ATTM. TROUGH WILL ROTATE ENEWD ACROSS WRN MT AND SRN ID DURING AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG 50-60KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX. RATHER MOIST PAC AIR MASS SPREADING NEWD AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH ONGOING EMBEDDED CONVECTION CURRENTLY NERN ORE INTO FAR WRN MT. AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD INTO NRN/ERN MT E OF DIVIDE...WHILE PAC FRONT AT 15Z APPROACHING GEG THEN SWWD INTO SRN OR. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWRN MT WITH APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING E OF DIVIDE GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. RATHER THAN SURFACE FRONT THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS NOW SPREADING INTO WRN MT. THIS IS A RESULT OF LARGE SCALE UVV'S WITH TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COOLING NOTED AT 700MB BETWEEN GEG AND GTF AT 12Z. WITH 40-50 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR ACCOMPANYING S/WV TROUGH...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND FAST STORM MOTION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO MT PLAINS AS CANADIAN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCES LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ANY SUPERCELL WOULD INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...WRN OK AND VICINITY... SRN BRANCH OF WLYS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND SRN PLAINS. WEAK TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE WITH UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW OFF NRN BAJA. MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LOCATED OK PANHANDLE ATTM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH THIS PM. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW 15-25 KT IS TRANSPORTING A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS NWD INTO OK AND SRN KS ATTM WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 70F. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND EXPECTED HEATING SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 90F OR ABOVE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH MCV. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN MARGINAL SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EVENING POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS VICINITY CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UNTIL LATE EVENING. ...REMAINDER OF PLAINS... SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP BY MID AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED PULSE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM BIG BEND NWD INTO KS. OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 30-35 KT CONTINUING THE NWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM ADVECTION ACROSS STALLED CANADIAN FRONTAL ZONE NEB/SD WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 20:06:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 15:06:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408222006.i7MK6CL05147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222001 SWODY1 SPC AC 221958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N OLF 30 SSE GDV 35 W 4BQ 35 WNW COD 20 NE MQM 30 S 3DU 50 NNW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CSM 10 SW CSM 25 WNW LTS 40 WNW CDS 25 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 35 SSW DDC 40 WSW P28 45 ENE GAG 35 N CSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 20 ENE TCS 65 SSW GNT 35 ESE PGA 50 NE DRA 60 SE BIH 35 S BIH 50 WNW BIH 65 ESE TVL 30 ENE NFL 20 SE WMC 75 SSE 4LW 30 WSW LMT 20 NNE OTH ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 10 N RWF 35 NW IWD ...CONT... 30 E TOL 30 SSE MMO 25 SSW PIA ALN 20 ENE CGI 60 E MKL 10 S CSV 35 NNE TYS 50 E TRI 25 NE CLT 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK... ...MT... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN WA WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 45-55KTS NOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN MT. AT THE SURFACE...RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN A REGION OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOREOVER...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S OVER PORTIONS OF WRN MT AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPECTED MARKED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. REGIONAL VWPS ALREADY INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2076/WW 774. UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. STORMS MAY SHIFT E OF THIS AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...TX PNHDL/WRN OK... STRONG INSOLATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF 12Z ABQ/DDC/MAF SOUNDINGS/ ARE ALLOWING AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON TO S OF VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SWRN KS. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED IN RESPONSE TO ARCING CLOUD BAND LIFTING NEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE BACKING WINDS OVER WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOREOVER...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE OVER THE NERN TX PNHDL AS WELL AS NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SERN CO. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID IN FURTHER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG WITH A DECREASING CAP. IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK WHERE VICI OK PROFILER AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NARROW CHANNEL OF COMPARATIVELY STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WINDS CURVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND SWRN KS DISTURBANCE. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL WY HAS LEAD TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WY AND PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL CO. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS E OF LEE TROUGH...DEVELOPING FROM SWRN NEB SWD INTO ERN CO...TO WARM/DESTABILIZE. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG E OF LEE TROUGH LATER TODAY. WITH APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE FROM THE W...EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...IA/ERN NEB/SWRN WI... LATEST ETA/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PORTION OF FRONT FROM SWRN/CNTRL WI INTO NERN NEB MAY BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUPPORT THIS NOTION TO SOME DEGREE WITH DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS NRN IA. AIRMASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA. HOWEVER...CURRENT VWPS INDICATE STRONGER WIND FIELDS FARTHER TO THE NE OVER NRN/CNTRL WI. GIVEN THIS OFFSET IN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK CONVERGENCE...LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS REMAINS ISOLATED AT BEST. ...AL/GA... SMALL MCS OVER WRN/CNTRL AL IS MOVING EWD AT 20-30KTS ALONG RESIDUAL E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS EWD INTO E-CNTRL SC. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS ERN AL AND CNTRL/SRN GA IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND FIELDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /PER REGIONAL VWPS/ ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. ..MEAD.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 01:11:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 20:11:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408230111.i7N1BQL03495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230108 SWODY1 SPC AC 230105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E P07 30 E ROW 15 SE GUP 20 SSW U17 20 NNE U24 70 SW ELY 45 NE BIH 45 S NFL 40 NNW LOL 45 NW EKO 35 SE BOI 45 WSW 27U 50 NE S80 45 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NE ISN 55 NE BIS 30 W MSP 30 SE ANJ ...CONT... 20 ESE MTC 30 NE MMO 25 W PIA 10 W STL 20 SE POF 25 SSW MSL 30 NW ATL 20 NNW AGS 15 ENE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL MT SEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO PARTS OF NRN NEB... STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS ATTM...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50 TO 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW CROSSING THE NRN GREAT BASIN. STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN ID / NRN UT NWD ACROSS WRN WY INTO CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SERN MT SEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO NRN NEB -- AHEAD OF SECONDARY VORT MAX INDICATED ATTM OVER NERN WY. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION /EVENING RAPID CITY SD RAOB INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...BUT WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET...SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS CROSSING ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. LOW-END THREAT MAY LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY -- AND THUS INSTABILITY AXIS -- IS ORIENTED MORE W-E. HOWEVER...DESPITE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION THUS NOT WARRANTING INSERTION OF SLIGHT RISK. ...WRN KS / WRN OK WWD TO ERN CO / NERN NM... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO / NERN NM ATTM INTO RELATIVELY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FAIRLY WEAK ATTM WITH MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY 1O TO 20 KT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN N TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK / KS. RESULTING INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION / UVV AND SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS -- AND A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT -- THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 06:08:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 01:08:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408230608.i7N68SL02184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230606 SWODY1 SPC AC 230603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 40 NE RWF 15 NW FOD 15 NNW OMA 10 ESE GRI 45 S EAR 35 W P28 40 E LBL 45 SSW MHN 25 NNW PHP 20 WNW DIK 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ISP 15 W TOL 30 NNW DAY 20 N HTS 10 NNE GSO 15 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE YUM 45 NE IGM 15 NNW GCN 80 NW GUP 55 NNE SOW 10 WSW FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ELO 50 ENE GRB 50 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE MRF 25 SW EHA 15 SSE AKO FCL 35 SSW ELY 10 SE RNO 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 15 SSW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH STORMS AND ASSOCIATED / ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LEAD SHORT-WAVE...MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER ERN MT ESEWD ACROSS SD INTO IA / NRN IL SHOULD RETREAT NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW REACHING SERN SASKATCHEWAN / SWRN MANITOBA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...NRN PLAINS... SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEB BEHIND INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...LIKELY RESULTING IN A CAPPED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE CAP WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN -- PARTICULARLY ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS INVOF LEE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS WRN SD / WRN NEB. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY INVOF SURFACE LOW NEAR LEE TROUGH / WARM FRONT INTERSECTION EXPECTED ACROSS WRN SD. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN INCREASE / SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / NEB. WITH 40 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF WY ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE HAIL...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH STORMS LIKELY SPREADING INTO WRN MN / WRN IA LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON...ON WRN FRINGE OF MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH 20 TO 30 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SPREADING EWD ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW ROTATING STORMS. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...MO / IA... WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS IA / NRN IL. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...BUT EXPECT AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. FAIRLY WEAK /15 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST...BUT LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VEERING / SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 12:32:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 07:32:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408231232.i7NCWpL29516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231229 SWODY1 SPC AC 231227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 40 NE RWF 15 NW FOD 15 NNW OMA 10 ESE GRI 45 S EAR 35 W P28 15 NNW LBL 45 SSW MHN 25 NNW PHP 20 WNW DIK 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE P07 35 NNE DHT 25 NNE AKO CYS 45 NE U28 45 SSE ELY 25 WSW NFL 50 SW 4LW 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 45 NE ELO 50 ENE GRB 50 SE OSC ...CONT... 40 ENE ROC UCA 30 NNE POU 30 N TTN 25 SE FDY 30 ESE DAY 20 N HTS 15 W DAN 15 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE YUM 25 SW PRC 25 NW INW 60 W GUP 40 SSW GNT 20 SE FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN/CNTRL KS NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... PROFILERS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A NEGATIVE-TILT H7-H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL ND-ERN SD-NWRN IA WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MANITOBA AND MN LATER THIS MORNING AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE...SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS WARM FRONT TRANSLATES NEWD INTO SRN ND AND SWRN MN. MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF SHARPENING LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM SCNTRL ND-NCNTRL NEB. INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH HEATING AND APPROACH OF STRONGER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ROCKIES TROUGH AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE VCNTY DEVELOPING SURFACE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE MO RVR IN ND/SD. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL SD/ND VCNTY THE WARM FRONT/LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LFCS WILL BE AOA 2200 M AGL...MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE RED RVR VLY AND WRN MN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER SEVERE RISKS GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... CHALLENGING FORECAST HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. CURRENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD THROUGH KS WITH AN ASSOCIATED TSTM CLUSTER BEING ENHANCED BY A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REACH THE MO/KS BORDER BY 18Z...BUT ORIENTATION/MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAXIMIZE THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG SWRN EDGE OF THE MCS MOST OF THE DAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO FORCE A BUBBLE HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN KS/WRN MO WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST ALL DAY...AND REINFORCE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. TAIL END OF THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NWWD INTO WCNTRL KS AND LINK UP WITH THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO WILL DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED UPDRAFTS. BUT...ANY POCKETS OF HEATING WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...SBCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SINCE SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE AND NOT UPGRADE ATTM. FARTHER WEST...AIR MASS WILL LIKELY HEAT MORE. HIGH LEVELS REMAIN DIFFLUENT OWING TO SUBTROPICAL JET ARCING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THUS...MAGNITUDE OF RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND CURRENT TROUGH MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RULE OUT TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION. MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS SWRN NEB SWD INTO WRN/CNTRL KS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH 30-35 KT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHMS GIVE VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF CNTRL KS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON MORE THAN ISOLD COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS ADDING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 16:09:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 11:09:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408231610.i7NGAEL12407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231604 SWODY1 SPC AC 231601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 40 NE RWF 15 NW FOD 50 SW FOD 45 ENE OMA 25 NE FNB 35 NNE PNC 15 NNW LBL 45 SSW MHN 40 ENE CDR 45 WNW Y22 60 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 15 SW PBG 30 SE EFK 15 SSW LEB POU 20 S ABE 25 NE DAY 30 E LUK BKW 20 W GSO 30 SSW FAY 10 SSE ILM ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 WSW IWD 30 NNW GRB 35 E MBL 50 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 25 NE DHT 25 SW LAA 30 SW LIC 40 ENE ASE 15 NW U28 35 SSE ELY 35 N TPH 10 SE NFL 35 NNW LOL 35 NW WMC 30 S OWY 15 SSW LND 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 30 WSW REJ 4BQ 55 WSW BIL 15 ENE MQM 50 NNE 27U 20 SE 3TH 80 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W YUM 20 SSE EED 50 WSW GCN 35 NE FLG 40 E INW 40 ESE SOW 10 ENE SAD 20 WSW DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... UPPER LOW VICINITY GTF AT 15Z AND ASSOCIATED STRONG S/WV TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WY MOVING NEWD WITH LOW INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY THIS EVENING AS TROUGH AND AREA OF STG UVV'S/MID LEVEL COOLING SPREADS EWD ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW SERN MT WILL TRACK NEWD INTO WRN ND WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THRU CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG GULF MOISTURE INCREASE IS UNDERWAY TO E OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL BE SPREADING RAPIDLY NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE 30-40KT SLY LLJ AHEAD OF MT/WY TROUGH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THE DAKOTAS IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF TROUGH AS THE KINEMATICS ARE STRONG. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO SRN ND...WHICH COUPLED WITH THE HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON SRN ND SWD ACROSS SD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD AND DEVELOP DOWN THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO WRN SD AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 50KT BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS PARTICULARLY NRN SD INTO ND. AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS DURING EVENING DEVELOPING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH 70S DEWPOINTS NWD INTO NEB ATTM. WEAK TROUGH IN SRN BRANCH COUPLED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE 30-40 KT SLY NOCTURNAL LLJ RESULTING IN THE EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW OVER ERN KS/MO. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING EWD AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN NEB SWD THRU WRN KS TO ALONG WRN OK/TX BORDER. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS E OF DRY LINE RISE TO ABOVE 70F. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON KS AND A LITTLE LESS IN NEB. THE CAP HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE SUNDAY...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STRONGLY HEATED DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM AND A VEERING SHEAR PROFILE...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNSET. SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE SOME AFTER DARK...HOWEVER WITH A 30-40KT LLJ THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE GIVEN THE AIR MASS QUALITY...MUCH OF THE NIGHT CENTRAL PLAINS. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 20:08:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 15:08:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408232008.i7NK8bL23942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232005 SWODY1 SPC AC 232003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 SE RST 25 WNW ALO 15 W FOD 20 E OMA 30 W P35 20 SSE SZL 15 N UMN 15 WSW BVO 10 W END 20 ENE GAG 20 WSW DDC 40 NNE GLD 45 SSW MHN 35 NE REJ 55 SSE GDV 30 NW MLS 45 SSW GGW 50 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 WSW IWD 30 NNW GRB 35 E MBL 50 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 15 SW PBG 30 SE EFK 15 SSW LEB POU 20 S ABE 25 NE DAY 30 E LUK BKW 20 W GSO 30 SSW FAY 10 SSE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 25 NE DHT 25 SW LAA 30 SW LIC 40 ENE ASE 15 NW U28 35 SSE ELY 35 N TPH 10 SE NFL 35 NNW LOL 35 NW WMC 30 S OWY 15 SSW LND 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 30 WSW REJ 4BQ 55 WSW BIL 15 ENE MQM 50 NNE 27U 20 SE 3TH 80 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W YUM 20 SSE EED 50 WSW GCN 35 NE FLG 40 E INW 40 ESE SOW 10 ENE SAD 20 WSW DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DEEPENING BENEATH WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MT...JUST SOUTH OF GGW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INGEST HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS THAT IS SPREADING RAPIDLY NWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED SOMEWHAT WITH THIS CONVECTION...IT APPEARS NEW DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WIND SHIFT AS IT ADVANCES EWD INTO WRN ND. PROFILES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND WITH TIME THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL ALLOW AN UPWARD CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO A POSSIBLE MCS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS LATER THIS EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED STABILIZING OUTFLOW FORCED WWD INTO SERN NEB/ERN KS. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SOME APPARENT SUPPLEMENTARY LIFT AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE BUBBLE HIGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AS IT SPREADS NNEWD WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. OF SOME CONCERN FARTHER WEST NEAR THE DRYLINE IS THE RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY IN THE HIGH PLATEAU AIRMASS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS IS CLEARLY INDICATIVE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE TRUE DRYLINE. AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM IT APPEARS THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EAST AND INGEST EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WILL CERTAINLY BECOME SEVERE WITH AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. VEERING WIND PROFILES ACROSS KS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN AIDING STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 01:16:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 20:16:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408240116.i7O1GXL31498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240113 SWODY1 SPC AC 240110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK 25 S BRD 30 ENE MKT 30 N MCW 30 ESE SPW 25 E OMA SZL 35 NE JLN 35 NNW BVO 30 W PNC EHA 40 NNW LAA 35 ESE AKO 25 NW IML 15 NE PHP 50 WSW BIS 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ELO 30 E RHI 25 NNE FNT 40 E TOL 25 NNW CMH 30 E CRW 35 S ROA 35 SSW GSO CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE YUM 15 NW GBN 60 E PHX 45 SSE SOW 30 ENE SAD 20 S FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 15 NE AUS 35 WNW TXK 20 NE HRO 10 WNW TUL 20 SE CDS 35 NW PVW 35 SE GUC 20 SW DEN 15 NNW FCL 40 SSW DGW 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 10 NNW REJ 10 SSE OLF 80 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THE DAKOTAS SWD ACROSS NEB INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW IS INDICATED ALONG THE ND / SD BORDER...WITH FRONT EXTENDING NNWWD INTO FAR NERN MT AND SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SSWWD ACROSS W CENTRAL NEB INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM W CENTRAL ND SWD INTO THE WRN HALF OF NEB INVOF SURFACE LOW / FRONT...WHERE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ EXISTS. WITH 35 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING FROM THE S / SE...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUING. STORMS ACROSS ND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...WITH MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO HAIL LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER S INTO SD / NEB...SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT. MORE ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT EXISTS SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WHERE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD ACROSS KS AND PERSIST THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ...ERN KS / WRN MO... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NERN KS ATTM...JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE ESELY SURFACE WINDS VEER RAPIDLY TO WLY AT AROUND 3 KM. EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EWD INTO MO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 10:48:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 05:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408241049.i7OAn5L05149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241047 SWODY1 SPC AC 241044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI UIN 45 NE SZL 20 S JLN 35 S ICT 25 ESE RSL 45 NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 50 NW AKO 60 SSE 9V9 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW JHW 25 NW MGW BKW 35 SSW GSO CRE ...CONT... 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT 60 NNE CLL 25 NW GGG 30 E PRX MLC 20 SSW END 35 WNW P28 45 NW EHA 25 NW COS 35 WNW RTN 45 SSW 4CR 30 NW ELP 35 SSE GDP 25 E INK 40 SSE BGS 70 SW SJT 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 50 WSW GCN 15 S BCE 10 NW MLF 55 NW DRA 35 NW BIH 25 W RNO 20 SSE BNO 25 SSE PDT 10 SE EAT 15 SE BLI ...CONT... 55 NE HVR 60 NNW MLS 35 S SHR 55 SW RAP 15 NNW ABR 70 NNW TVF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN STATES. NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA / SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. -- WHERE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. AT THE SURFACE...COMPLEX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH A LACK OF STRONG BAROCLINICITY. MAIN FEATURES WILL INCLUDE A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND A LOW FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MO / MID AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS LARGE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND COMPLEX / GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN MAKES NARROWING DOWN AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE THREAT DIFFICULT ATTM. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF MN AS WELL AS THE IA / MO AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND DECREASE DURING THE DAY...WHILE AIRMASS W OF THE CONVECTION -- ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MO VALLEY REGION -- DESTABILIZES. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...INCLUDING ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN SWWD INTO NEB...AS WELL AS INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE KS / MO REGION. LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CYCLONIC SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG SERN EDGE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH...ABOVE GENERALLY SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SE OF AFOREMENTIONED MN TO NEB SURFACE BOUNDARY. RESULTING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ATTM IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF KS / ERN NB AND INTO WRN IA...IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF KS SURFACE LOW. COMBINATION OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF MO / IA AND INTO WRN IL AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES / MAINTAINS FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 12:34:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 07:34:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408241234.i7OCYlL12702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241232 SWODY1 SPC AC 241229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI UIN 55 SSW IRK 15 E UMN 30 S EMP 25 NNE P28 35 SSW RSL 45 NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 50 NW AKO 40 NW BBW 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT 60 NNE CLL 20 NW GGG 40 ENE PRX 20 NW MLC 25 SSW END 40 W P28 35 NW EHA 20 SW LHX 35 W TAD 35 SSW LVS 15 SSW 4CR 50 SE ALM 35 SSE GDP 30 E INK 35 NW SJT 40 WNW JCT 10 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE OLF 55 NNW MLS 30 SSW SHR 55 SW RAP 15 NNW ABR 65 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 40 NW PRC 25 S BCE 10 NNW MLF 50 NNW DRA 30 NW BIH 25 WSW RNO 60 E 4LW 35 NNE BNO 10 ESE PDT 35 SSE OLM 15 W CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 25 NW MGW 15 NNE BKW 25 SW GSO 25 NNE FLO 30 W ILM 25 W HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA... ...MN AREA... MORNING SURFACE CHART SHOWS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TRAILING FROM 997 MB LOW OVER SERN SASK SWD INTO ERN ND AND CNTRL SD. A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS SWRN MN. AS SRN PERIPHERY OF 30-60 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRARIES TRANSLATE ENEWD...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN. A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE AS 50 KT SWLY H5 FLOW SAGS SEWD...POSSIBLY AUGMENTING STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MEAN 2-6KM MEAN WIND VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY ORGANIZE LINEARLY WITH TIME AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MS VLY AREAS OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. THUS...DECREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. ...CNTRL PLAINS... NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST AT DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH THE STRONGEST ARCING FROM NRN MO WWD ACROSS NRN KS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER SWD INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING AS MCS TRANSLATES ESEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MO WHILE WEAKENING. NOW THAT THE MAIN IMPULSE OVER SCNTRL CANADA IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER MO DEPARTS TO THE EAST...THE MAJORITY OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SEE A LULL/DECREASE IN TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BUBBLE HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MO TODAY...BUT AIR MASS WILL RECOVER ACROSS CNTRL KS NWD INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S SITUATED ACROSS OK WILL ADVECT NWD BENEATH STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES TO 3500 J/KG BETWEEN THE MO BUBBLE HIGH AND DRYLINE ACROSS SCNTRL KS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG AND RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL JETLET...ANALYZED OVER NM...MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND BECOMES COUPLED WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS. HEATING...INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD EVENING WILL LIKELY AID IN TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB/NERN CO AREA EWD TOWARD THE MO RVR. LOWEST 6KM SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS COINCIDENT WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WILL EXIST OVER NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB EWD TO THE MO RVR IN THE EVENING AND THE UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITIES. MOREOVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SCNTRL/SERN NEB/KS BORDER AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW...LOW LCLS...EXTREME CAPE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST. LLJ AXIS ENHANCES THETA-E ADVECTION EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO OVERNIGHT AND THE TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND TRACK ESEWD THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOUGH SEVERE THREATS WILL DECREASE...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME MORE OF A THREAT FARTHER EWD. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 16:09:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 11:09:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408241609.i7OG9iL04323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241604 SWODY1 SPC AC 241601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI 30 ENE ALN 35 ESE VIH 15 E UMN 30 N BVO 25 WSW ICT 50 NNW P28 50 NNW GCK 35 WNW GLD 30 SE SNY 40 NW BBW 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 30 E LVM 20 NW LND 30 SSW RWL 30 WSW CYS 15 ESE BFF 40 WSW 9V9 25 W ATY 35 E FAR 20 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 30 W GBN 40 WNW PHX FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 45 E ELY 55 NNW ELY 20 ESE OWY 15 NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 30 SSW 27U 45 SE BKE 50 NW RDM 25 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 45 NW MRF 45 N MRF 30 WSW FST 25 E FST 30 ENE BGS 50 E LBB 10 S GAG 35 W P28 15 W DDC 30 ENE LAA 20 SSW LIC 40 ENE GUC 40 SW ALS 30 NE ONM 15 NNE TCS 35 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25 SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S EWN 30 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UNSEASONABLY ENERGETIC WLY FLOW ACROSS CONUS IS BECOMING EVEN MORE SO AS IMPRESSIVE 130KT 300MB JET MOVES ONTO THE PAC NW COAST BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAYS STRONG TROUGH OVER MT HAS BEEN KICKED NEWD INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WHILE A WEAKER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS TRYING TO PHASE WITH SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW OVER AZ. AZ S/WV IS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF BAJA MON AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EWD ACROSS MN TODAY TRAILING BACK ACROSS NRN NEB WHERE IT WILL SLOW AND WEAKEN. OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY ERN KS/NRN MO IS PROVIDING THE MOST IMPORTANT SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING SEWD ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO SURFACE LOW OVER WCENTRAL KS. A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS S OF KS/MO BOUNDARIES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SUFFICIENT CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY OF KS SURFACE BOUNDARY ALLOWING THE MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR TO INCREASE TO 3000 J/KG OR GREATER TO E OF SURFACE LOW AND WEAK DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WHILE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT WILL BE MARGINAL...THE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL VEERING VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND N OF THE E/W BOUNDARY. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. AS S/WV OVER AZ ENTERS HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET...A SEVERE MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE E/ESEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WELL AFTER DARK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 25-30KT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW 10-15 KTS. SURFACE BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRIMARILY BE PULSE VARIETY WITH SOME ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE STORM MODE. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 20:02:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 15:02:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408242003.i7OK3IL19229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242000 SWODY1 SPC AC 241957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 35 E DLH 30 WNW EAU 50 NNE ALO 30 WSW MLI 15 E SPI 20 ENE MTO 25 SSW BMG 25 NE OWB 25 WNW HOP 10 NNW DYR 45 S UNO 10 NW FYV 30 NE BVO 25 E ICT 45 SSW RSL 30 SSW GLD 35 ESE AKO 50 E SNY 40 NW BBW 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 25 WSW BIL 35 NW RIW 40 NNW RWL 25 SSW DGW 15 ESE CDR 35 NNW 9V9 35 NW ATY 40 ENE FAR 10 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC 30 NNW FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 45 E ELY 45 SSE EKO 20 ESE OWY 15 NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 30 SSW 27U 45 SE BKE 50 NW RDM 25 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 35 SSE HOB 10 NNE LBB 35 E AMA 35 SW LBL 25 N LHX 15 NW COS 60 NNE ALS 45 SSE ALS 30 SW LVS 40 ESE ONM 70 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25 SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S EWN 30 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN IL... MID MS VALLEY MCS APPEARS TO BE REJUVENATING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL. AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE FORWARD SPEED AS LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. UPSTREAM ACROSS KS/SERN NEB...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON BACK SIDE OF MCS SFC HIGH WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS UNDERWAY WITH RECENT BOUNDARY LAYER WAVE CLOUDS NOW SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN KS. AS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO HEAT...INHIBITION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. HOWEVER...TIMING OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND REMAINING INHIBITION SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT INITIATE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING...OR POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 03Z. EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ONE OR MORE MCS'S EXPECTED AFTER DARK. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES LATE. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG N-S WIND SHIFT HAS YET TO GENERATE MORE THAN SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AT BEST. WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS ALONE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MOSTLY LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 00:49:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 19:49:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408250050.i7P0o1L32273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250047 SWODY1 SPC AC 250044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO DLH 65 N EAU 30 ESE RST 40 NNW BRL 40 WSW SPI 25 SSE VIH 35 NE JLN 20 SW SLN 40 SSW HLC 30 NE AKO 50 E SNY 40 NW BBW 35 NW OTG 10 NW BRD 20 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25 SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S EWN 30 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC 30 NNW FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 15 NW DPG 50 S BYI 15 NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 60 NW 27U 30 SSW PDT 35 NNW YKM 20 NNE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 10 ESE MLU 30 NE PBF 60 NW LIT 35 W MKO 20 NE DDC 15 NW COS 60 NNE ALS 45 SSE ALS 40 SW TCC 40 W PVW 40 NW BGS 40 ENE BGS 15 N ABI 15 NNE BWD 45 ENE JCT 10 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW BIL 25 WSW WRL 45 E RIW 10 WSW DGW 30 N CDR 20 WNW 9V9 35 SE JMS 40 SSE TVF 30 ESE RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SWD INTO KS / MO... ...NERN KS / SERN NEB / SRN IA / NRN MO... MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS SERN MO EARLIER HAS LEFT A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO NERN KS. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD / SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS OVER THIS REGION. WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH ERN AZ / WRN NM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL ORGANIZED -- LIKELY INTO AN MCS -- OVERNIGHT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY NEAR BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE- OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST / SHIFT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MN / WRN WI... SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WIND SHIFT / SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR INL SSWWD TO FAR NWRN IA. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. ...WRN NEB SEWD INTO NRN KS... LIMITED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS WRN NEB ATTM...WHERE SCATTERED / WEAK STORMS ARE ONGOING. AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY PERSIST EWD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 05:58:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 00:58:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408250559.i7P5x3L29364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250556 SWODY1 SPC AC 250554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW BRD 10 E MSN 40 NW CGX 15 WNW CMI 30 SE BLV 20 E UNO 30 WNW MLC 30 NE OKC 20 N PNC 35 W EMP 50 W CNK 15 WNW ABR 50 E DIK 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 45 SE LFK 35 SSW MLU 30 SW ELD 35 NNE GGG 25 NNW ACT 35 WSW ABI 70 NNW ABI LTS 25 E HUT 35 SSE RSL 40 NNE LAA 25 ENE DEN 40 W EGE 35 NNW VEL 20 SW EVW 25 SE SUN 35 W BOI 55 WSW PDT 45 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 35 WSW ART LBE 30 SSE TYS 15 WSW CSG 10 WSW MAI 10 SE MGR 45 NW CHS 25 SW ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BROADEN / EXPAND EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGE PERSISTS E OF THE APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS -- WHERE MAIN SEVERE THREAT EXISTS THIS PERIOD. RATHER ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MO / IA WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY... ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD...GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN AND FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA. LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING EWD...ALONG WITH A BROAD BELT OF MODERATE WSWLY FLOW. AS INITIAL / WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MO / MID MS VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...MODERATE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED. RESULTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO TX AND EWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS. WITH MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS E OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS FROM ERN KS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MO VALLEYS BY AFTERNOON...WHERE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE W OF LINGERING STORMS ACROSS IA / MO. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH -- PARTICULARLY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOWS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- IS EXPECTED ATTM ACROSS ERN NEB / ERN KS / NWRN MO / WRN IA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO OTHER POSSIBLE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT. AS LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET...EXPECT CONVECTION -- AND LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT -- TO SPREAD NEWD...WITH STORMS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 12:29:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 07:29:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408251230.i7PCUNL01285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251227 SWODY1 SPC AC 251225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT 45 NE FAR AXN FRM ALO RFD MKE GRR 10 NNW FWA BMG POF HRO PRX 35 NNE MWL FSI PNC 30 WSW EMP 15 NNW SLN 40 S EAR BBW 9V9 50 WSW JMS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ART AOO 25 SE TRI 35 NNE ABY 30 ENE MGR 35 WSW SAV 20 WSW FLO 25 SW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 25 E SAT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP MAF 55 E LBB 30 E CSM 15 NE P28 40 NNE DDC 20 NNW LAA 15 E DEN 45 N GJT 35 WSW MLD 20 SW SUN 50 W BOI 65 SW PDT 30 S AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES. A PAIR OF VIGOROUS JET STREAKS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...AND WILL PLAY A PROMINENT ROLE IN SUPPORTING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...LEAD JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE ALREADY ACCELERATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INTENSE CYCLONIC POLAR JET STREAK NOSES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. BOTH FEATURES ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR ONGOING... INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS...WHICH HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE LIKELY WILL BE SLOWED BY EXPANDING CLUSTER /OR CLUSTERS/ OF STORMS...UNTIL EXIT REGION OF POLAR JET OVERSPREADS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE MID MISSOURI/MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH RISK PERHAPS BECOMING CONCENTRATED IN SEVERAL AREAS. ...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARKS... POTENTIAL FOR MOST INTENSE STORMS TODAY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY IN WAKE OF SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS BY MID AFTERNOON...LOW/ MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CYCLONIC AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAKENED STATE UNTIL SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THUS...COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING TOWARD CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...ON WESTERN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35... WHERE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY MID-LEVELS AND WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG... WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ALONG 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AFTER NIGHTFALL. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN PLAINS... NORTH OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ENHANCED BOUNDARY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MORE LIMITED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HEATING/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES /WELL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER POLAR JET CORE/...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MOST CONCENTRATED SOUTH/EAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL ACROSS THIS REGION...VEERING WITH HEIGHT MAY CREATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE THIS EVENING. ...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA... SEVERE THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS A CHANCE TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AT OR INCREASING TO AROUND 70F...MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER JET STREAK ON SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -18C/ IS PROGGED ALONG/NORTH OF POLAR JET AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO/SOUTHWEST MONTANA/NORTHEAST WYOMING DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED CAPE...BUT INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS WITH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S F DEW POINTS SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HEATING. AIDED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...FROM JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INITIATION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 15:48:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 10:48:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408251549.i7PFnSL08190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251543 SWODY1 SPC AC 251540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE SPI 20 WSW BLV 10 S VIH 50 NNE SGF 25 SSW OJC 15 ENE TOP 10 ESE FNB 50 NNE FNB 25 S DSM 35 SSW CID 10 SW MLI 10 WNW PIA 10 ENE SPI 40 SSE SPI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT 45 NE FAR AXN 25 ENE MKT 35 ESE RST 10 ESE MSN MKE GRR 10 NNW FWA BMG POF 15 S HRO 25 NNE PRX 20 WNW DUA 15 SE OKC 15 SE PNC 25 SW EMP 25 E MHK 20 ESE LNK 30 N OFK 35 NNW HON 40 ENE BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ART AOO 25 SE TRI 30 ENE MCN 45 ESE MCN 35 ESE AGS FLO 25 SSE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 S MAF 45 SE CDS 25 NW END 40 S RSL 50 S EAR 30 ESE BBW 40 NNE LBF 20 NNW AKO 10 NNW FCL 50 ENE CAG 40 NE VEL EVW 20 N BYI 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW RDM 40 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 20 N NIR 50 SSE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 S FTW 20 SSW SEP 10 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KS/IA AND IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN SWD TO INCLUDE ERN OK AND SEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY...... ...CENTRAL U.S.. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WLYS AND POTENT S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD FROM PAC NW ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS TO 50-55 KTS AND SFC-1KM SHEAR FROM 20-25 KT PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME ERN KS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL IN THE MDT RISK AREA. BOUNDARIES FROM CURRENT MCS MOVING ACROSS IA INTO IL ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING SEVERE STORMS NERN KS/SERN NEB AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY MID AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO TAP INTO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON FOR GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN OK WHERE AIR MASS CONTAINS EXTREME INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS AREA WITH HIGHER LCLS THUS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. SEVERE MODE SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING EVENING WITH INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS NRN IL. ...NCENTRAL U.S... INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.. COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S WITH SURFACE HEATING PUSHES MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30KTS FAVORS MORE PULSE AND MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WITH GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 00:51:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 19:51:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408270052.i7R0qoL04987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270049 SWODY1 SPC AC 270046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW OTM 45 WNW LWD 25 E OMA 45 E SUX 30 ESE SPW 35 ENE MCW 50 SSW LSE 20 WSW DBQ 30 WNW MLI 35 SW OTM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC FNT 30 SW JXN 45 S SBN 10 NNE CMI 45 SE UIN 35 NW SZL 20 NNE TOP 35 SSE BIE 15 NNE BIE 15 ENE SUX 25 W SPW 15 NW MKT 45 S DLH 25 ENE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 10 ENE INK 50 SSE LBB 45 SE CDS 10 S SPS 30 WSW MWL 35 ESE SJT 30 NNW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 WSW CLL 30 SSW TYR 35 E PRX 20 ENE MKO 25 NW CNU 30 ESE SLN 25 SE HSI 15 NNE MCK 45 E LIC COS 15 ENE GJT 30 N U24 40 S OWY 25 SSW BNO DLS 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW ART 40 WNW IPT 25 WNW SHD 35 NE HKY 15 W AND 25 WNW AGS 25 SW SOP 20 WSW GSB 30 E EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM NRN MO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...IA TO GREAT LAKES... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED FROM CNTRL IA INTO SWRN IA AHEAD OF SFC FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH SOME EWD PUSH IS NOTED TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION. DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND 00Z SOUNDINGS REFLECT A HIGHLY MOIST AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL...WITH THE LATEST PROFILE FROM DVN STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND TORNADOES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON LATE EVENING EVOLUTION WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE YET TO MERGE INTO ANY MEANINGFUL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER AND THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...BY 03-04Z THE PROBABILITY FOR MCS EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER SERN IA/NRN IL. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS MCS MATURES AND SPREADS TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT. (REF LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2123 FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS ACTIVITY.) UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES NORTH OF JET AXIS WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO ONGOING ACTIVITY ALONG THE MO RIVER INTO NERN SD/WCNTRL MN. UNTIL THEN...HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ..DARROW.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 05:31:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 00:31:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408270533.i7R5XjL13227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270530 SWODY1 SPC AC 270527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ABI 10 SE BGS 35 ENE HOB 45 ESE CVS 25 ESE AMA 10 WSW GAG 20 NNW P28 40 SSE BIE 40 SW DSM 35 NNW OTM 35 W MMO 30 NNW DNV 35 E SLO 35 W MDH 35 ESE SGF 35 NW MLC 25 SE SPS 20 ENE ABI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 SSW DUG 40 WSW SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 50 N BCE 30 WNW DPG 15 ESE TWF 20 NNE BKE 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 45 NNE BIL 15 ESE 81V 50 SE AIA 30 ESE BBW 35 NNW SUX 20 SSE RST 20 SW IMT 30 N ANJ ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 35 WNW DAN 10 SE SOP 15 NNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO WEST TX... ...OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD FRIDAY. UPSTREAM...TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND NEARBY WARM SECTOR WHERE VERY MOIST AIRMASS/MODERATE-HIGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MI...TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN MO WHERE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD SERVE AS A STIMULUS FOR POTENTIAL MID DAY-LATE AFTERNOON ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SOME HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN AXIS FROM NWRN TX INTO ERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 8.5-9C/KM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING IT APPEARS THIS HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN FORCING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT INITIATE UNTIL NEAR 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX...WHILE ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EARLIER ACROSS KS. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 12:54:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 07:54:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408271255.i7RCtaL07036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271252 SWODY1 SPC AC 271249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HUF 50 N EVV 25 ESE TBN 35 WNW FYV 35 WNW ADM 50 E BGS 55 NW BGS 45 WNW LBB 30 W P28 40 SE BIE DSM 20 SSW CID 20 NNW PIA 25 WNW LAF 30 NNE HUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 40 W MLS 35 ESE 81V 50 SE AIA 30 ENE BUB 45 SSE FSD 25 S RST 20 N JVL 35 ENE MTW 70 E MQT ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 35 WNW DAN 10 SE SOP 15 NNW HSE ...CONT... 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 40 WSW SVC 35 SSW ALM 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 50 N BCE 30 WNW DPG 15 ESE TWF 20 NNE BKE 45 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY... ...KS...OK AND NW TX... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...AND SRN HALF OF COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL SETTLE ONLY SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION TODAY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM KS THROUGH OK AND NW TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY WARM MIDDLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT MLCAPE COULD STILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM KS SWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES AND LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA. THE STRONGER MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED AND LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. STILL...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO LINES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EVENING. INTENSIFYING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ACTIVITY CONTINUING SEWD THROUGH OK AND PARTS OF WRN AND NRN TX OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED BUT SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN MO. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING EWD WHILE THE MO PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM OH...IND...IL AND MO...AS WELL AS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SETTLES SWD INTO SRN IA AND MO. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAN OVER THE OH VALLEY SUGGEST A BETTER SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN MO...CNTRL IL AND POSSIBLY SRN IA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM AND FLOW/SHEAR WEAKENS WITH ERN EXTENT INTO IND AND OH...SUGGESTING THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...LOWER MI... QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH RECOVERY CAN OCCUR IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS. MOST STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM MCS OVER MO CONTINUE ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER THAN OVER THE OH VALLEY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD INTO CANADA...WITH RESULTING WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND WEAKENING FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA...ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 16:30:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 11:30:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408271631.i7RGVML03251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271628 SWODY1 SPC AC 271625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MFD 25 ENE MIE 20 SSE HUF 45 NW CGI 35 WNW FYV 35 WNW ADM 50 E BGS 55 NW BGS 45 WNW LBB 30 W P28 40 SE BIE 20 ESE P35 35 NW UIN 35 SW MMO BEH 15 NW LAN 35 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSW DUG 40 WSW SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 45 WNW 4HV 25 NW DPG 45 S BYI 45 SSW LWS 45 NNW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 70 NE BIL 81V 40 ESE AIA 15 SSW IML 20 SSW GLD 50 WSW GCK 30 S GCK 35 NNE DDC 35 ENE HLC 30 ESE HSI 15 NNW OMA 40 ENE ALO 20 E OSH 50 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 25 S ROA 15 NE GSO 20 S RDU 20 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO NWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN WLY/SWLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL RIDGING HANGS ON ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWD ACROSS THE DOOR COUNTY PENINSULA OF WI...THEN AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUED OVER NERN IA AND NWRN MO...THRU A LOW OVER CENTRAL KS...THEN SWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. A SMALL MCS ACROSS NERN MO HAS LAID OUT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IL WWD INTO NERN MO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MO AND IL... AIR MASS S AND E OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 3000 J/KG...WITH SOME VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG OVER EAST CENTRAL MO AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ETA MODEL DEPICTED AN MCV THAT WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NERN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS MOVES SEWD FROM WRN SD/NERN CO INTO NERN NEB/WRN KS BY 28/12Z. MODEL ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX OF 100-130 KT FROM NWRN IA NEWD OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR PLACING AREAS FROM ERN KS INTO CENTRAL IL IN FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO ENHANCE UVVS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT WAS PRESENT FROM OK AND ERN KS NEWD INTO IL...IN AND LOWER MI WHICH THE ETA AND LATEST RUC MODELS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER ERN KS CENTRAL PARTS OF MO INTO CENTRAL IL. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 7C/KM ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOME HAIL IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH LARGE CAPE VALUES...BUT LIMITED WITH FREEZING LEVELS FORECAST ABV 12K FT AGL. ...PARTS OF SRN/ERN LOWER MI... PRIND ARE THAT MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI AND EXTREME NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. MODELS INDICATE THAT COLD FRONT WILL DRAG SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID LEVEL DRYING COMBINED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 20:29:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 15:29:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408272030.i7RKUJL05412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272020 SWODY1 SPC AC 272017 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MFD 25 ENE MIE 20 SSE HUF 30 W MDH 35 WNW FYV 20 WNW ADM 10 E ABI 10 WNW SJT MAF 50 ENE HOB 40 SW CDS 35 WSW P28 45 SW FNB 25 NE LWD BRL 30 WSW MMO BEH 15 NW LAN 35 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSW DUG 40 WSW SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 45 WNW 4HV 25 NW DPG 45 S BYI 45 SSW LWS 45 NNW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 70 NE BIL 81V 40 ESE AIA 15 SSW IML 20 SSW GLD 50 WSW GCK 30 S GCK 35 NNE DDC 35 ENE HLC 30 ESE HSI 15 NNW OMA 40 ENE ALO 20 E OSH 50 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 25 S ROA 15 NE GSO 20 S RDU 20 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... ...MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO SRN PLAINS... HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WRN SD/ERN CO...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH /OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES TO FOUR CORNERS REGION/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO TO WRN OK AND WEST CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION INTERSECTED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN MO. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NERN KS INTO NRN MO AND SRN/SERN IA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NWRN MO TO CENTRAL TX ATOP AXIS OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S/ WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN KS/ WRN AND NRN MO WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. BAND OF 35-40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY ACROSS NERN KS/NRN MO TO FAR SRN/SERN IA...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL MO THEN INTO WRN IL. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN KS/WRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS NWRN TX. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO MO ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL MO/IL WILL SUPPORT THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER MI... DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING. ...PORTIONS SOUTHWEST TX... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SW TX WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...DESPITE THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ...LEE OF LOWER GREAT LAKES... AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS WRN NY AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NERN OH/NWRN PA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ONGOING LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO/ERN LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER FAR NRN OH/LAKE ERIE MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 28 01:01:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 20:01:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408280102.i7S12cL19553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280100 SWODY1 SPC AC 280057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUF 30 W MDH 35 WNW FYV 20 WNW ADM 10 E ABI 10 WNW SJT MAF 50 ENE HOB 40 SW CDS 35 WNW END 30 WNW FLV 10 SE LWD 10 WSW BRL 15 E PIA 20 N CMI 30 SW HUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CAR 20 WNW LCI 20 SSE MSV 25 SSE MRB 25 S ROA 40 SSW GSO 15 ESE SOP 20 N HSE ...CONT... 20 E PSX 45 N HOU 30 SSE SHV 10 ENE TXK 30 ENE PRX 25 S FTW 35 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSW DUG 40 WSW SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 20 S U28 30 SSW SLC 30 SW SUN 20 S S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 45 NE HVR 20 SE LWT 50 NE COD 30 SE WRL 30 SSE CPR 15 ENE CYS 15 NE AKO 55 SSE AKO 10 NNW LAA 35 WNW EHA 50 SSW LBL 15 NE GAG 25 SSW HUT 20 N MHK 40 S FOD 30 W ALO 30 ENE MKE 45 N MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... ...MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... CONVECTION IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NWRN OK...ACROSS SERN KS INTO NWRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 4000J/KG. 00Z SOUNDINGS FAVOR LINEAR UPDRAFT EVOLUTION WITH SEWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS SFC FRONT ACCELERATES AFTER DARK FORCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK. FARTHER NORTHEAST...SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPANDING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL SAG SEWD INTO CENTRAL MO OVER THE NEXT 2-4HR. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CURRENT STORM MODE SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING LAPSE RATES/UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 08/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 28 05:46:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 Aug 2004 00:46:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408280547.i7S5lnL19235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280545 SWODY1 SPC AC 280541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DUG 45 NE GUP GUC 35 SSE 4FC 25 NW LIC 35 SSE LIC 40 NNE CAO 35 NNE AMA 35 SE GAG 25 NNW PNC 10 N EMP 25 E FNB 20 S DBQ 45 NW MKG 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 20 ENE HYA 10 N JFK 25 WSW DCA 30 NE LYH 30 SW GSO 25 E FAY 40 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 30 N OTG 35 NE SUX 15 SW YKN 35 SSE 9V9 10 ENE PIR 15 SSE Y22 30 N MLS 55 WSW HVR 40 NW CTB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY... LONG WAVE TROUGH OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN AID THE EWD ADVANCEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY AND OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EARLY THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...EWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO NRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY IS OVERTURNING MUCH OF THE REMAINING PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. DOWNSTREAM...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NY DISPLAYED MARGINAL LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ROUGHLY 5.5-6C/KM. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND RESULTANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG UPDRAFTS SATURDAY. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPPER AIR DATA SUGGEST THIS WILL PROVE DIFFICULT...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY REGION...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE/STRONG STORMS ALONG THE OH RIVER. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...TX... BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WIND SHIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS WILL NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 08/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 05:05:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 00:05:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408290506.i7T56mL02461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290504 SWODY1 SPC AC 290501 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 40 SW DLH 25 NE MKT 20 E OTG 20 ESE BKX 75 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSM 20 NNW PSF 45 NNE MSV ELM 30 SE BUF 65 N ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 45 E AGS 35 W FLO 35 NE FLO 25 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 SSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 20 SE LTS 10 ESE FTW 30 NNE GGG 40 SW PBF 20 E POF 40 E LAF 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 15 SSW ABE 35 W ILG 25 S NHK 40 SSW WAL ...CONT... 30 WSW FHU 30 SSE SOW 40 SW FMN 35 W ALS 20 ENE TAD 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW BUB 20 WSW HON 30 NNW MBG 70 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN SC/SERN NC... ...NY AND NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE /I.E. SURFACE LOW NOW SW OF LAKE ERIE/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT LEAST A FEW STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEND LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IMMEDIATELY S OF FRONT AND AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY NEWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KTS PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS AIRMASS COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO/NWRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CNTRL MANITOBA INTO W-CNTRL OR NWRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIRMASS /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S. SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CNTRL MN AS STRONGER FORCING ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 0-3KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI TONIGHT...HOWEVER DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CAROLINAS... PER LATEST TPC TROPICAL STORM FORECAST/ADVISORY...GASTON COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTHEN PRIOR TO REACHING THE SC COAST LATER TODAY. MOIST/SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN RIGHT FORWARD QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LANDFALLING RAINBANDS. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 08/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 05:15:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 00:15:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408290516.i7T5GkL05785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290514 SWODY1 SPC AC 290511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 40 SW DLH 25 NE MKT 20 E OTG 20 ESE BKX 75 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSM 20 NNW PSF 45 NNE MSV ELM 30 SE BUF 65 N ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 45 E AGS 35 W FLO 35 NE FLO 25 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 SSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 20 SE LTS 10 ESE FTW 30 NNE GGG 40 SW PBF 20 E POF 40 E LAF 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 15 SSW ABE 35 W ILG 25 S NHK 40 SSW WAL ...CONT... 30 WSW FHU 30 SSE SOW 40 SW FMN 35 W ALS 20 ENE TAD 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW BUB 20 WSW HON 30 NNW MBG 70 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN SC/SERN NC... CORRECTED FOR TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR ...NY AND NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE /I.E. SURFACE LOW NOW SW OF LAKE ERIE/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT LEAST A FEW STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEND LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IMMEDIATELY S OF FRONT AND AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY NEWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KTS PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS AIRMASS COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO/NWRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CNTRL MANITOBA INTO W-CNTRL OR NWRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIRMASS /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S. SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CNTRL MN AS STRONGER FORCING ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 0-3KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI TONIGHT...HOWEVER DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CAROLINAS... PER LATEST TPC TROPICAL STORM FORECAST/ADVISORY...GASTON COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE SC COAST LATER TODAY. MOIST/SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN RIGHT FORWARD QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LANDFALLING RAINBANDS. ..MEAD.. 08/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 20:09:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 15:09:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408292011.i7TKBeL14872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292005 SWODY1 SPC AC 292002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RRT 30 SSW BRD 35 WSW RWF 10 WSW BKX 40 NNE ABR 75 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CRE 40 WSW FLO 50 ESE CLT DAN 25 NNE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 35 ESE MWN 30 S CON PSF CXY 25 N AOO 10 N JHW 20 NW ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAO GCK DDC 35 NW PVW CVS 55 SSE LVS CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 30 SSE SOW 40 SW FMN 60 WNW ALS 35 NE TAD 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW BUB 20 WSW HON 45 NE MBG 55 N MOT ...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 25 SE LTS 40 S SPS 25 NE SEP 15 ENE ACT 30 NW LFK 10 NE JAN 35 SW MEM 40 ESE POF 25 SSW DAY 35 W CLE ...CONT... 25 NW HYA 30 NNW EWR 35 W ILG 25 S NHK WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PA/NY ACROSS VT/NH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD AND WESTERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM/TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO KS... ...NY/PA/VT/NH... LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 35-50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA/NY INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN NY SWWD TO WV AT 19Z. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE THREAT FOR LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. ...NC/SC... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF T.S. GASTON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS NERN SC/ERN NC...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD. ...ND/SD/MN... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF A STRONGER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND MN. COLD MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-16 TO -18 C AT 500 MB/ ACROSS ND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND A NARROW AXIS OF AROUND 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING NWD ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BROKEN LINE OF CU/MODERATE CU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN EWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH OVER NERN SD/ERN ND...WITH CBS OVER FAR NERN ND. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION... FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE MINIMAL. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER OVER SWRN MN AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN WAA CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA. ...KS/TX/OK PANHANDLE/NM... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE FROM NWRN KS TO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE INTO NERN NM...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/SRN NM. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM WRN KS SWWD ACROSS WRN TX INTO MUCH OF NM. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO SUPPORT PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING. 18Z RUC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TREND FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BY 00Z ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NERN NM AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 08/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 00:52:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 19:52:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408300053.i7U0rpL13898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300052 SWODY1 SPC AC 300048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GCK 35 N RSL 35 WSW CNK 35 SE RSL 40 S DDC 40 WSW GCK 35 NNW GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE INL 60 ESE BRD 25 SSW MSP 35 NE OTG 50 NE BKX 20 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRE 40 SW SOP 30 N SOP 50 ESE LYH 15 ENE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ITH 25 NNE BML 35 NNW AUG 30 N PWM 20 WNW CON 30 NNW MSV 20 E ITH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HYA 30 NNW EWR 35 W ILG 25 S NHK WAL ...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 25 SE LTS 40 S SPS 25 NE SEP 15 ENE ACT 30 NW LFK 15 WSW JAN 15 SW UOX 25 SSE OWB 25 SSW DAY 35 W CLE ...CONT... 30 WSW FHU SAD 40 SW FMN 60 WNW ALS 25 S LHX 55 N LAA 15 S BUB 30 SSE MHE 15 N ABR 75 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC... ...MN... BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH FROM E OF TVF TO NW OF AXN. A MORE ISOLATED CELL HAD ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED FARTHER TO THE E SW OF BRD. PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY 04Z AS AIRMASS STABILIZES. ...NERN STATES... 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AIRMASS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING WIND PROFILE SHOWED MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 02 OR 03Z ALONG SRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NY NEWD INTO CNTRL NH/VT. ...CAROLINAS... RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND ERN NC VWP DATA INDICATE REGION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ TO THE N OF GASTON CIRCULATION. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AND DISTRIBUTION OF BUOYANCY THROUGH THAT PORTION OF PROFILE EXHIBITING STRONGER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ THIS EVENING FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD/NEWD INTO WRN KS. SYNOPTIC FRONT /EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NEB INTO NERN NM/ HAS FOCUSED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL INTO WRN KS WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO ERN NM. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 03 OR 04Z APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WRN KS WHERE REGIONAL VWPS/00Z DDC SOUNDING INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 12:50:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 07:50:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408301251.i7UCpEL29076@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301248 SWODY1 SPC AC 301245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSM 40 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 35 SE ART 10 NE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 50 NW MEI 25 NE BWG 25 ENE ERI ...CONT... 30 W INL 15 S STC 40 E YKN 35 E OLU 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 25 S END 30 NW SPS 40 W BWD 20 SSW AUS 15 WSW GLS ...CONT... 20 SSW FHU 50 W GUP 25 SSW ASE 35 NNE CYS 55 SSE 81V 30 E 4BQ 30 NNE MLS 55 WSW GGW 65 ENE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... SWRN U.S. RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NEWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE STRONGER BELT OF FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS BELT OF FLOW...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS IT SWINGS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF GASTON -- NOW A T.D. OVER CENTRAL NC -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NC AND INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON T.D. GASTON...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM HPC ON THIS SYSTEM. THE ONLY OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN WI SWWD INTO WRN KS / ERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD...WHILE BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NY ATTM SHOULD CONTINUE / SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. WITH MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD FORECAST...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ONE OR TWO SMALL-SCALE BOWS CAN EVOLVE. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING / LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER PERSISTS WITH T.D. GASTON...JUST S OF RDU ATTM. LATEST RAX /RALEIGH NC/ VWP INDICATES 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF GASTON AFFECTING A FAIRLY SMALL AREA AROUND THE CENTER. AS GASTON MOVES NEWD...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO SERN VA. WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE HEATING...EXPECT MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT FAIRLY STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS ERN CO / NERN NM AND AS MUCH AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG INTO WRN KS / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL KS / WRN OK / NWRN TX ATTM. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION DIURNALLY WEAKENS...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK /GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THEREFORE...ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL / GUSTY WINDS IS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE STRONGER STORM PULSES. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 16:24:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 11:24:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408301625.i7UGPrL23957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301624 SWODY1 SPC AC 301620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSM 40 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 25 N UCA 35 NNW BML 10 NE HUL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ECG 55 NNE RWI 25 SE LYH 15 SSW SHD 40 WSW DCA 25 SE DCA 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W INL 15 S STC 40 E YKN 35 E OLU 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 25 S END 15 ENE SPS 40 W BWD 20 SSE AUS 50 W HOU BPT 35 WNW LFT 30 E HEZ 35 NW LUL 15 NE MEI 35 W TCL 20 WNW MSL 30 E BWG 25 ENE ERI ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU 35 NE INW 25 SSW ASE 20 NW CYS 45 WSW RAP 15 WNW REJ 35 WSW GDV 40 WSW GGW 40 NNW HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA/MD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... ...NEW ENGLAND... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING INTO QUEBEC THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MINIMAL CLOUDS FROM EASTERN PA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS ZONE SHOULD HEAT RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL TODAY. HOWEVER...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 25-30 KNOT 500MB FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ...VA/MD... REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF GASTON IS OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AKQ/LWX VAD PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RATHER NARROW AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER SOUTHERN VA. ISOLATED CELLS IN THIS BAND MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S. THREAT MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VA BY EVENING. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/NM/CO TODAY...WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 20:06:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 15:06:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408302009.i7UK9pL31065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302005 SWODY1 SPC AC 302002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSM 40 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 25 N UCA 20 SW MWN PWM 20 S PSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ECG 55 NNE RWI 25 SE LYH 15 SSW SHD 40 WSW DCA 25 SE DCA 25 ENE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE HOB 30 SSW CVS 20 SE TCC 50 E TCC 30 W CDS 50 SSW CDS 60 NW ABI 20 NNE BGS 15 NE HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 35 NE INW 25 SSW ASE 20 NW CYS 45 WSW RAP 15 WNW REJ 35 WSW GDV 25 SSE HVR 50 WNW CTB ...CONT... 30 W INL 15 S STC 40 E YKN 35 E OLU 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 30 SSE END 10 SW FSI 30 NNE BWD 50 NW AUS 40 S CLL 20 NNW BPT 20 SSW ESF 30 E HEZ 35 NW LUL 15 NE MEI 35 W TCL 20 WNW MSL 30 E BWG 25 ENE ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR GASTON ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... REMNANTS OF GASTON ARE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS SERN VA. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INLAND...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE LIMITED TO SERN MD THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST SHEAR IS ALSO ACROSS THIS REGION AND THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ...NEW ENGLAND... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WELL AHEAD OF TROPICAL INFLUENCE FROM GASTON. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING NWD INTO ZONE OF STRONGER HEATING/INSTABILITY FROM MA INTO SRN NY. LATEST DATA SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS ZONE FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING UPDRAFTS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING MCS IS MOVING SWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND WELL AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT INTO THE MAF REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID NEW DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION CAN EVOLVE ALONG LONGER LIVED OUTFLOW...THIS MAY SERVE TO DRIVE A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SWWD INTO THE LBB AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DARROW.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 00:33:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 19:33:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408310034.i7V0YBL30282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310031 SWODY1 SPC AC 310028 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W INL 15 S STC 15 N FRM 50 WSW FOD 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 40 E GAG 10 S LTS 35 N BWD 50 NW AUS 35 SE CLL 30 NW BPT 20 SSW ESF 30 E HEZ 35 NW LUL 15 NE MEI 25 NE TCL 30 E HSV 10 ESE LOZ 25 NNW ROC ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU 35 NE INW 25 SSW ASE 20 NW CYS 45 WSW RAP 15 WNW REJ 10 WSW GDV 20 NNW GGW 40 NNE HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS ALONG WARM FRONT WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 50+ DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. ...ERN CO/WRN KS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ERN CO WITHIN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OBSERVED IN THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL OCCURRENCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR ERN CO/FAR WRN KS THROUGH 03 OR 04Z...PRIOR TO COOLING STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ...TIDEWATER REGION... PER 00Z WAL SOUNDING...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF REMNANT GASTON CIRCULATION MOVING NEWD ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY 04 OR 05Z AS CIRCULATION MOVES OFFSHORE. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 16:21:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 11:21:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408311623.i7VGNVL08384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311620 SWODY1 SPC AC 311616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW YKN FSD 15 WNW MKT 35 N MCW MCW 45 SW FOD 35 E GRI 15 SE BUB 35 SW YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 25 S PSM ...CONT... 35 SE AUG 30 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 70 ESE PHX 15 NW PRC 30 W GCN 40 NE GCN 55 WNW GUP 25 SE FMN 45 NW 4FC 45 NNW MHN 20 SE PIR 25 SW FAR 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC 15 NW MLI 30 N TOP 25 W P28 55 WNW ABI 10 ENE JCT 30 SSE CLL 30 W MCB 25 E MEI 50 N HKY 15 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80 20 ENE BNO 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEB INTO PARTS OF MN/IA... ...NEB/SD/MN/IA... LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SD WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO MN/IA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NEB. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE THE CAP. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THOSE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ...AZ/NM/TX... LARGE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY...WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -12 OVER PARTS OF AZ/NM AND WEST TX. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THIS REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. DESPITE RATHER WEAK SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 19:59:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 14:59:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408312000.i7VK08L02768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311957 SWODY1 SPC AC 311954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW YKN FSD 15 WNW MKT 35 N MCW MCW 45 SW FOD 35 E GRI 15 SE BUB 35 SW YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 70 ESE PHX 15 NW PRC 20 W GCN 30 ENE CNY 45 SW LAR 35 NNE AIA 20 SE PIR 25 SW FAR 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC 15 NW MLI 30 N TOP 25 W P28 50 NNW ABI 50 S BWD 30 SSE CLL 30 W MCB 25 E MEI 50 N HKY 15 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80 60 WNW BOI 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB INTO SRN MN... ...MID MO VALLEY... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PER LATEST CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG SFC BOUNDARY FROM CUSTER COUNTY TO GARFIELD COUNTY IN NEB. THESE THERMALS SHOULD STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEIGHT RISES. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN AIRMASS THAT IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000J/KG...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LITTLE MORE THAN PULSE-TYPE OR MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ...SWRN TX... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND TO SOME EXTENT VIS IMAGERY...DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER VORT JUST SW OF MAF IN SWRN TX. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM SE-N OF THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL PROVE DIFFICULT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS UPPER VORT. A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 08/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 01:01:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 31 Jul 2004 20:01:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408010100.i7110GD10537@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010057 SWODY1 SPC AC 010055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SAT JUL 31 2004 VALID 010100Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW EAU 20 NNW LSE 40 ENE ALO 35 SW FOD 15 W SUX 10 NNW YKN 30 E HON 10 ENE ATY 45 SW AXN 25 SE STC 40 WNW EAU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 SW P07 40 S MAF BWD TXK 25 WNW UOX BWG 35 SSW LUK 10 NW CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E MQT 40 S ESC MKE IRK 25 SE EMP DDC EHA ROW 50 SE DMN ...CONT... 60 SW TUS IGM 35 W CDC EVW TWF 55 NNW WMC 45 E MHS 35 NNW MHS 45 NNW MFR 20 SW RDM 60 ESE BKE DLN 15 NE MSO 90 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PART OF ERN SD INTO SRN MN/NRN IA AND FAR WEST CENTRAL WI... ...ERN SD/SRN MN/NRN IA/FAR WEST CENTRAL WI... SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM SERN MANITOBA SWWD TO ERN SD...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY PROVIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD INTO SWRN MN NEAR RWF TO JUST SOUTH OF MSP. INFLUX OF VERY MOIST AIR /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ INTO SERN SD/SWRN MN WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE BASED STORMS FOR ANOTHER FEW HOURS /UNTIL AROUND 03Z/. WLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AT 40-50 KT EXTENDING FROM THE NRN PLAINS TO THE NRN GREAT LAKES...AND THE INCREASING LLJ WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO...HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREATS FOR ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS ACROSS FAR SERN SD/NWRN IA AND SWRN-SRN MN. AFTER 03Z...A STRENGTHENING LLJ THAT WILL VEER OVERNIGHT TOWARD SERN MN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A GREATER POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED STORMS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ...FAR NWRN MN... A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MOVING ESEWD ACROSS SERN MANITOBA WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER FAR NWRN TO NORTH CENTRAL MN THROUGH 06Z. 00Z INL RAOB INDICATED WEAK INSTABILITY...SUGGESTING STORMS MAY HAVE DIFFICULTY MOVING TOO FAR INTO NRN MN. IF STORMS IN MANITOBA CAN REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH AS THEY MOVE INTO FAR NWRN MN...SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY...MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST AND/OR HAIL. ..PETERS.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 06:21:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 01:21:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408010620.i716KwD28693@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 010618 SWODY1 SPC AC 010616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0116 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE MOT 10 WSW TVF 20 ESE BJI 40 E BRD 25 NNW MSP 20 NW MKT 30 NNW FOD 50 WSW FOD 35 S SUX 15 NNW OFK 35 WNW ATY 20 SE BIS 50 ESE MOT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE MQT 25 S MTW 40 WNW CGX 15 S BRL FNB 30 W LNK 35 SSE 9V9 40 E PIR 35 WSW Y22 35 NNE DIK 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 ESE BIH 25 W NFL 65 SE 4LW 60 SSE LMT 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 25 SSW EUG 15 N PDT 10 NNW 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 35 SSW OSC 15 NNE AZO 15 ENE ALN 25 N SZL GRI 20 WSW LBF 30 W GLD 25 NE CAO 45 W ROW 30 NW GDP 15 NNW INK 25 WSW SEP 25 NE GLH 40 S MSL 25 N 5I3 10 N PSB 10 SSW UCA 30 N PBG. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN/ERN ND...ERN SD...MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WRN MN...EXTREME NERN NEB AND NWRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EWD OVER THE MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... ...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT LARGE HAIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS ERN SD/SWRN MN/EXTREME NERN NEB AND NWRN IA... ...SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE THREAT ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN ND INTO WRN AND CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT... ...SYNOPSIS... MODELS ARE SIMILAR WITH BUILDING HEIGHTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MO VALLEY TODAY...WITH THE STRONGEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW /50-60 KT/ EXTENDING FROM THE DAKOTAS EWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER SRN BC IS PROGGED TO MOVE QUICKLY ESEWD TO WRN ND BY 00Z...AND THEN ACROSS NRN MN TONIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD...WHILE A SECOND WEAK TROUGH APPROACHES ERN SD/WRN MN REGION TOWARD 00Z. AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER SRN SD/NRN NEB. A QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN MT ESEWD ACROSS WRN ND TO ERN SD AND OVER SRN MN/WI. ...DAKOTAS EWD ACROSS MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD FROM ERN NEB NEWD ACROSS IA INTO CENTRAL/SRN WI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN IA AND PORTIONS OF WI AS A SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO THIS REGION RESULTS IN WAA CONVECTION. WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THIS AREA MAY ALSO PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LARGE SCALE ASCENT FOR THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW OVER SD WILL AID IN ADVECTING LOWER 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS NWD INTO ERN SD/SWRN-WEST CENTRAL MN BY THIS AFTERNOON. WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL SPREAD STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MS VALLEY BY 00Z...EFFECTIVELY CAPPING THE AIR MASS FROM SD/NEB INTO SWRN MN/NWRN IA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. SURFACE HEATING AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IN ERN SD/WRN MN AND A DRY LINE EXTENDING N-S ACROSS ERN SD IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY 00Z OVER THE SRN HALF OF THE MODERATE RISK. 40-45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR COMBINED WITH EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE AROUND 4000 J/KG/ OVER THIS REGION WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. MODELS SUGGEST THAT AS A SWLY LLJ STRENGTHENS AGAIN FROM NRN KS INTO IA...INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS SRN MN/NRN IA INTO SRN WI TONIGHT. A SURFACE LOW IS ALSO PROGGED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER WRN ND THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE APPROACH OF THE BC SHORT WAVE TROUGH. STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER ND COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG. MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER WRN-CENTRAL ND BETWEEN 00-03Z AND THEN EVOLVE INTO A POTENTIAL BOW ECHO WITH A CONCENTRATED AREA OF DAMAGING WINDS FROM ERN ND TO WRN/CENTRAL MN TONIGHT. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS REASONABLE SINCE THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE BOW WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE OVERNIGHT AS A SWLY LLJ ADVECTS MOISTURE NNEWD WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED INTO ERN ND TO CENTRAL MN. ...GREAT BASIN... STRONG SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. 40 KT OF SLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER NWRN CA SHOULD AID IN SOME STORM ORGANIZATION...GIVEN 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT...BUT INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 13:04:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 08:04:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408011305.i71D5UD17239@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011301 SWODY1 SPC AC 011259 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0759 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 011300Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE ABR 35 NNE ATY 45 WSW STC MKT 40 E FOD DSM 50 ESE OMA OMA 20 NNW OFK MHE HON 25 SE ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL ELO IWD CWA 30 NW MMO 45 NNW COU 30 N SZL STJ FNB LNK 40 W OFK 9V9 35 NNW PIR 35 WSW Y22 30 NW DIK 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC BLV SGF 30 SW BIE MCK 30 W GLD 25 NE CAO 45 W ROW GDP INK SEP 40 S MSL 30 W BKW AOO 45 W ALB 30 NE EFK ...CONT... 15 SW YUM 35 NNE BLH 40 ESE BIH 25 W NFL 65 SE 4LW 60 SSE LMT 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 25 SSW EUG 15 N PDT 3TH 55 NNW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS ERN SD...SWRN MN...WRN IA..NERN NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ELSEWHERE FROM MUCH OF ND SEWD TOWARD NWRN IL AND NRN MO... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO DEAMPLIFY ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN CONUS THROUGHOUT REMAINDER PERIOD. HEIGHTS WILL RISE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/NRN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS AS MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS GENERALLY EWD FROM SRN ROCKIES ACROSS S-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. STRONG RIDGE WILL EXTEND NWWD ACROSS ID/WA. UPSTREAM CYCLONE -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY BETWEEN BAY AREA AND CAPE MENDOCINO -- IS FCST TO EVOLVE INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH BY AROUND END OF PERIOD...AND MOVE SLOWLY ASHORE NRN CA. AT SFC...PRIMARY LOW IS ANALYZED OVER E-CENTRAL SD BETWEEN PIR-MHE AND SHOULD REMAIN OVER E-CENTRAL/SERN SD AREA THROUGH DAYLIGHT HOURS. THREE BAROCLINIC ZONES ARE ANALYZED INTO THIS LOW -- 1. OCCLUDED FRONT NEWD ACROSS NWRN MN... 2.WARM FRONT EWD ACROSS SERN SD/SWRN MN BECOMING DIFFUSED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW OVER SRN MN...AND 3.SECONDARY WARM FRONT SEWD ACROSS NWRN MO -- REINFORCED BY OUTFLOW OVER IA. EXPECT WARM FRONTAL ZONES TO BLEND TOGETHER E THROUGH ESE OF SFC LOW DURING DAY. OCCLUDED FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN...WHILE DRIFTING EWD OVER NRN MN AND BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY/INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS SD NNE OF SFC LOW. ...UPPER MIDWEST... ONGOING CONVECTION OVER PORTIONS IA AND ERN NEB DEVELOPED IN ELEVATED LOW LEVEL WAA ZONE BEHIND A COUPLE OF DEAD MCS/S...AND MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC SEVERE HAIL THROUGH MIDMORNING. OAX RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY AROUND 2500 J/KG ELEVATED MUCAPE...BUT LAYER OF RELATIVELY WEAK MIDLEVEL WINDS THAT PRODUCES SMALL EFFECTIVE SHEAR -- IN CAPE BEARING LAYER. AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO MOISTEN ONCE AGAIN BY ABOUT 21Z OVER PORTIONS ERN SD...SW MN...AND PORTIONS WRN IA...IN WAKE OF CONVECTION LAST NIGHT. EXPECT MOIST ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION TO CONTRIBUTE TO SFC DEW POINTS COMMONLY IN 70S F. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG SFC HEATING AND 8-9 DEG C/KM MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES YIELDS VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH 3000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE. TIGHTENING OF HEIGHT GRADIENTS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...SUPPORTING SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY AFTERNOON. MODIFIED ETA/RUC SOUNDINGS REASONABLY INDICATE 45-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH AS HIGH AS 300-350 J/KG. TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR SFC LOW AND INVOF WARM FRONTAL ZONE WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WILL BE MOST STRONGLY BACKED...CONTRIBUTING TO ENLARGED HODOGRAPHS AND GREATEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. PRIND MOST SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE THREAT WILL DEVELOP LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING OVER MDT RISK AREA ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED SUFFICIENTLY FROM EARLIER ACTIVITY. STRONG CAPPING WILL SUPPRESS CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF DAY. HOWEVER...ONCE IT BREAKS...EXPLOSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE TSTMS IS ANTICIPATED. THIS INCLUDES THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE/DESTRUCTIVE HAIL LIKELY. TORNADOES AND SEVERE DOWNDRAFTS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. AFTERNOON ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BETWEEN LOWER MO AND MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT...WITH MAIN THREAT EVOLVING INTO DAMAGING WIND. SECONDARY RELATIVE MAXIMUM IN SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS ND/NRN MN TONIGHT...W OF OCCLUDED FRONT/INVERTED TROUGH. STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS MAY DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ALONG BOUNDARY LEFT BEHIND BY CURRENT CONVECTION OVER NERN MT/NWRN SD. NEITHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NOR BOUNDARY LAYER SHEAR WILL BE AS INTENSE AS FARTHER SE...HOWEVER STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT...40-50 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR...AND 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE SHOULD SUPPORT SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO ANOTHER MCS TONIGHT WITHIN 150-200 NM OF CANADIAN BORDER. ...NRN AZ/SRN UT REGION... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS ARE MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THIS REGION ATTM...IN ASSOCIATION WITH INCREASE IN LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE ACCOMPANYING DEEP SLY FLOW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SERVE TO FURTHER MOISTEN BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT ALSO TO RETARD ONSET/INTENSITY OF AFTERNOON DIABATIC HEATING. MOST INTENSE CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS. HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL AND POORLY ORGANIZED FOR CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK...GIVEN LIMITED BUOYANCY. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 16:11:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 11:11:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408011611.i71GB2D01985@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 011606 SWODY1 SPC AC 011604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1104 AM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 011630Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ABR 35 NE ATY RWF FRM 40 E FOD DSM 55 WSW DSM OMA OFK MHE ABR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM INL 45 SE ELO CMX ANJ PLN GRB MSN RFD UIN MKC FNB GRI BUB 9V9 10 NW Y22 DIK 55 N MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SE OSC 25 ENE AZO 20 NW SLO 10 SSW SGF 35 SE HSI 35 N HLC 35 SSW GLD 35 NNE CAO 30 NW TCC 50 NNE ROW 25 SE HOB 25 WSW SEP 25 NE GLH 40 S MSL 30 W BKW 35 ENE CRW 25 SSE PIT 15 NNW ELM 35 NNE UCA 10 ENE EFK ...CONT... 10 SSE IPL 35 NE TRM 40 ESE BIH 15 ESE RNO 60 NNE SVE 45 E MHS 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 15 N SLE 35 NW PDT 10 NNW 3TH 55 NNW FCA. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF EASTERN SD...NORTHEAST NEB...SOUTHWEST MN...AND WESTERN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND MIDWEST STATES TODAY. SEVERAL SMALL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW REGIME...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN CLUSTERS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO MO/IL/WI AND UPPER MI. ...IA/MN THROUGH MID AFTERNOON... LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VORT MAX OVER EASTERN SD...AND A PAIR OF UPPER SYSTEMS OVER ND AND NORTHEAST WY. THE EASTERN FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS IA/MN EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL FOCUS RE-DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS DESTABILIZING RAPIDLY WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN MN/NORTHERN IA. ...SD/NEB/MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER ND/WY WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN TO AFFECT EASTERN SD BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 12Z ETA GUIDANCE APPEARS TO OVER-DEVELOP EARLY CONVECTION...WHILE 12Z RUC SCENARIO APPEARS SOMEWHAT MORE REASONABLE. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER THIS REGION...WITH AFTERNOON TEMPS NEAR 90F AND THE SURFACE DRYLINE MIXING EASTWARD TO ROUGHLY AN OFK-ABR LINE. EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG DRYLINE WITH DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 4000 J/KG. CAP WILL HOLD STRONG THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...BUT APPROACHING UPPER TROUGHS WILL AID IN THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21-00Z. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH THE RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. BACKED SURFACE WINDS EAST OF THE DRYLINE...ALONG WITH RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...MAY ALSO LOCALLY ENHANCE THE TORNADO POTENTIAL FROM SOUTHEASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN INTO NORTHWEST IA. ACTIVITY MAY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS IA DURING THE NIGHT WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS. ...ND TONIGHT... YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHERN MT WILL TRACK INTO ND OVERNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...UPPER MI... PER COORDINATION WITH APX...THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME RISK OF LAKE BREEZE CONVECTION OVER UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IS RAPIDLY MOISTENING/DESTABILIZING WITH AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG POSSIBLE. RELATIVELY WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS AND STRONG HEATING WILL HELP LAKE BREEZE FORM...WHILE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE PRESENT FOR A RISK OF ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ...NORTHERN IL... VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS REMNANT MCV OVER EASTERN IA. THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL IL TODAY...WITH A RISK OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. AIRMASS WILL BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE...BUT WINDS ALOFT ARE RATHER WEAK. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR NEAR STRONGER CORES. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...NV/UT/AZ... PLUME OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ROTATE AROUND UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S...SPREADING ACROSS PARTS OF UT/NV/AZ. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THIS REGION THIS AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES... COMBINED WITH 25-35 KNOTS OF MID LEVEL WINDS. A FEW STORMS IN THIS AREA MAY PRODUCE GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ..HART.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 1 20:07:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 15:07:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408012006.i71K6uD03010@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 012002 SWODY1 SPC AC 012000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 012000Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OMA 30 ENE OLU 25 WSW YKN 15 NNW HON 35 ESE ABR 40 NE ATY 15 NNE RWF 35 W MCW 30 NNW DSM 60 WSW DSM OMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW ANJ 20 ESE GRB 40 NE MLI 40 WSW UIN 20 WNW SZL 10 ESE TOP 35 SW BIE 15 SE ANW 25 SW Y22 60 N ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 30 NNE DAG 65 SSE NFL 50 N SVE 45 ESE MHS 30 SSE RBL 45 NNW UKI 20 E 4BK 15 N SLE 35 NW PDT 10 NNW 3TH 55 NNW FCA ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 15 SW LAF 10 E BLV 35 SW TBN 20 W JLN 25 E ICT 15 S RSL 50 WSW HLC 50 NE LAA 45 E TAD 55 WSW CAO 30 WNW CVS 45 NE HOB 60 NE BGS 35 SSW SPS 15 N ADM 20 NNE PGO 45 E PBF 30 NNE TUP 35 ESE BNA HTS 20 SE PIT 15 WNW UCA 35 NNW BML. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN SD...SW MN...WRN IA AND FAR NE NEB... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS...WRN GREAT LAKES...UPPER MIDWEST AND MO VALLEY... ...UPPER MO VALLEY... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WITH NWLY FLOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE RUC MODEL CURRENTLY HAS A DISTURBANCE MOVING EWD ACROSS SD AND NRN NEB. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EWD...LIFT WILL OVERSPREAD THE MODERATE RISK AREA MAKING CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW CENTERED OVER SRN SD WITH A SMALL MOISTURE TONGUE IN PLACE ACROSS NE SD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DRIFTING EWD NEAR ABR AND AS THIS PATCH MOVES INTO A MAXIMUM OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR WATERTOWN SD...INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP NORTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS SRN ND AND EWD ALONG A THERMAL GRADIENT IN SRN MN. STORMS ARE ALREADY ONGOING IN SRN IA AND THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CELLS THAT DEVELOP IN ERN SD AND WRN MN WILL MOVE SSEWD INTO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. THE BACKED SFC FLOW ACROSS SE SD AND NW IA MAY ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. THE INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 7.0 TO 7.5 C/KM WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL ESPECIALLY WITH STORMS THAT MOVE INTO THE HIGHER INSTABILITY ACROSS SE SD AND SW MN BY EARLY EVENING. THE WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS THE STORMS MATURE LATER THIS EVENING...SPREADING SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS FAR NE NEB AND WRN IA. IF AN MCS CAN GET GOING...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...POSSIBLY REACHING THE KANSAS CITY AREA LATE TONIGHT. ...DESERT SOUTHWEST... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON ASSOCIATED WITH MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMING NWD ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED A MINOR DISTURBANCE OVER SERN CA AND SRN NV MOVING NWD WHICH SHOULD REACH WRN UT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE DISTURBANCE IS LOCALLY ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS COMBINED WITH LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEAR PEAK HEATING. DECREASING INSTABILITY BY EARLY EVENING WILL ALLOW THE MINIMAL SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH QUICKLY. ..BROYLES.. 08/01/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 01:25:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 01 Aug 2004 20:25:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408020124.i721OUD26888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020121 SWODY1 SPC AC 020120 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0820 PM CDT SUN AUG 01 2004 VALID 020100Z - 021200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S OMA 25 E OLU 65 SSE 9V9 15 WSW PIR 60 S Y22 20 SSW BIS 20 E BIS 35 ESE JMS 30 S AXN 15 S MKT 40 E FOD DSM 45 E OMA 15 S OMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE INL 50 WSW DLH 50 SE DLH 25 SE VOK 25 SW MLI 20 WNW IRK 20 SE FNB 10 W BIE 30 S PHP 40 SE REJ 75 NW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SSE IPL 30 SW DAG 70 NNW BIH 10 ESE SVE 45 ESE MHS 30 SSE RBL 45 NW UKI 15 NW ACV 15 N SLE 45 WNW ALW 25 E 3TH 55 WNW CTB ...CONT... 60 SE OSC 25 NNW LAF 10 WSW MTO 40 NW POF 25 WNW SGF 20 ESE CNK 30 SSW EAR 30 WSW LBF 35 E AKO 45 E TAD 35 WNW CAO 30 W TCC 10 W PVW 65 NW ABI 45 NW MWL 30 NNE FTW 30 SW PRX 30 W ELD 50 ESE GWO 20 W HSV 20 NNW 5I3 LBE 10 NW RUT 20 SSE CAR. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN ND INTO CENTRAL/ERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB AND PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TO THE MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER RIDGE HAS CONTINUED TO BUILD NWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONGEST WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PROGGED TO REMAIN ALONG THE U.S./ CANADA BORDER EWD OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO NRN NEW ENGLAND. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH THAT HAS CRESTED THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND IS AIDING IN ONGOING CONVECTION OVER SWRN ND IS PROGGED TO MOVE ESEWD TOWARD SRN MN TONIGHT...WHILE A SECOND WEAK TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES TO SRN ONTARIO. A MORE AMPLIFIED TROUGH OVER SRN SASKATCHEWAN WILL TRACK EWD TOWARD WRN ONTARIO/NWRN MN BY 12Z MONDAY. ...DAKOTAS EWD TO MID MO AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE LOW OVER SWRN ND WITH TWO BOUNDARIES EXTENDING EWD ACROSS SRN ND AND FAR NRN SD INTO CENTRAL MN. SSELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT HIGH SURFACE DEWPOINTS NWWD TO ALONG THE ND/SD BORDER...AND INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN. STEEP LAPSE RATES ATOP THIS MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER IS CONTRIBUTING TO A VERY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2500-3000 J/KG/ AIR MASS FROM CENTRAL SD EWD ACROSS ALL OF SRN MN INTO WEST CENTRAL WI...AND SWD ACROSS ERN NEB WHERE THE AIR MASS IS EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG/. GIVEN THE ONGOING CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS SWRN ND/NWRN SD ATTM AND THE AIR MASS OVER CENTRAL SD HAS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE...THE MODERATE RISK HAS BEEN EXTENDED WNWWD INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD AND SRN ND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP WITH THIS CURRENT CLUSTER OF STORMS AND TRACK SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN SD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THREAT FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...GIVEN VERY STRONG INSTABILITY AND 50-60 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WILL BE VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO THE EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY ACROSS SWRN MN/ SERN SD AND ERN NEB TO IA DECOUPLES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING...THE SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO AN LINEAR MCS WITH A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. A STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ AT 40-50 KT NOSING INTO THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY FAVORS THIS SCENARIO WITH THE WIND THREAT POTENTIALLY REACHING NRN MO AND EXTREME NERN KS/SERN NEB BY 12Z MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN ND INTO PORTIONS OF NWRN MN AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA SPREADS EWD OVERNIGHT. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ...NERN WI/NRN LOWER MI AND U.P. OF MI... LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE REST OF NERN WI AND THE U.P. OF MI TO NRN LOWER MI THIS FORECAST PERIOD. WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA OVER THIS SAME AREA WILL ALSO AID IN CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT AVAILABLE INSTABILITY AND WITH STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROGGED TO REMAIN NORTH OF THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN AND PACIFIC NW... DEEP SLY FLOW ON THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE COAST OF NWRN CA WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NWD. 00Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE WRN STATES SHOW STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES...RESULTING IN STRONG WIND GUSTS. POCKETS OF MARGINAL TO MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING...BUT EXPECTED AREAL COVERAGE OF SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT A CATEGORICAL RISK. ..PETERS.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 06:23:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 01:23:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408020622.i726MvD14085@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 020620 SWODY1 SPC AC 020619 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0119 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N ISN 20 NNW P24 25 WSW JMS 60 W AXN 20 E STC 30 ENE EAU 10 NNW OSH 10 WNW MKE 25 SW CGX 15 ESE BMI 20 NW STL 35 W COU 20 ESE FNB 15 ENE GRI 25 SE MHN 35 ENE AIA 25 N CDR 10 SE 81V 40 NE COD 20 SW WEY 55 SSE 27U 50 WSW BOI 40 SSE BNO 55 ESE RDM 40 SE DLS 40 S EPH 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE YUM 35 SSE EED 50 SSW DRA 55 W TPH 65 NE SVE 50 NNW SVE 15 W RBL 55 SSE EKA 15 NNE ACV 20 N EUG 45 NE PDX 25 SSE EAT 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 25 N PBG 35 NE BFD 35 NNE SDF 40 ESE POF 30 SSE SGF 25 SSW TOP 30 S HSI 20 S LBF 35 SE SNY LIC 40 E RTN 20 ESE TCC 15 WNW LBB 30 W ABI GGG 20 NNE MEI 15 S ANB 25 SW CSV 15 SSW JKL 20 SSW MGW 25 WNW CXY 30 ESE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TO MT AND SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG ZONAL FLOW CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED TODAY. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES...AS HEIGHTS FALL OVER THE NERN PACIFIC AND WA/ORE IN ADVANCE OF A TROUGH MOVING SWD ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. HEIGHTS WILL ALSO FALL ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...ERN NEB/IA/SRN MN TO MIDWEST STATES THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON... MCS...POTENTIALLY SEVERE...IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER PORTIONS OF ERN NEB AND WRN/CENTRAL IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. ADDITIONAL STORMS...CURRENTLY OVER ERN ND...ARE PROGGED TO BE OVER CENTRAL MN/ WEST CENTRAL WI BY 12Z THIS MORNING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES DOWNSTREAM OF THIS EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY WILL ALLOW THE MOIST AIR MASS TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP AS THE EARLY MORNING CONVECTION MOVES SEWD INTO THE DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT. 30-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR INDICATES STORMS SHOULD BE SEVERE WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. MARGINAL INSTABILITY FARTHER EAST ACROSS LOWER MI AND MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ...SD/NEB EWD TO SRN MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LEFT OVER FROM THE MCS MOVING ACROSS ERN NEB/IA AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CENTRAL/SRN SD TO WRN IA. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BE THE EFFECTIVE FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS OVER SD/NRN NEB THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN EWD THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT ACROSS IA AND POTENTIALLY SRN MN. STEEP LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN THE 70S ACROSS SRN-SERN SD AND NERN NEB WILL RESULT IN EXTREME INSTABILITY /MLCAPE UP TO 4000 J/KG/ BY 21-00Z FROM SOUTH CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB ESEWD INTO WRN IA. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER ERN ID...IS PROGGED TO MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD BY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD WEAKEN THE CAP ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL SD/NORTH CENTRAL NEB BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THUNDERSTORMS TO INITIATE OVER THIS AREA. STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND VERY STRONG TO EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL. BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL INCREASE HODOGRAPH CURVATURE FOR A TORNADO THREAT. A STRENGTHENING AND VEERING LLJ OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS THE ID SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO IA TONIGHT WILL FAVOR THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS INTO A LINEAR MCS... WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS INTO IA/SRN MN. FORECAST INSTABILITY OVERNIGHT SUPPORTS THE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. THUS...PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK FROM SD/NEB EWD TO MN/IA MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO A MODERATE RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AS PLACEMENT OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON ACTIVITY BECOMES MORE APPARENT IN TIME. ...MT/WRN ND... SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXTEND FROM WRN MT ESEWD ALONG THE MT/WY BORDER. RESIDUAL SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY BY THIS AFTERNOON. SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW... THOUGH SOMEWHAT WEAK...ATOP ESELY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL SUPPORT 30-35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH DEVELOPMENT ALSO LIKELY INTO WRN ND AS WAA AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUPPORT ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE NERN PACIFIC WILL RESULT IN THE NWRN CA CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE PAC NW/NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION....COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /-12 TO -14C AT 500 MB/ AND 35 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF WA/ORE ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN ID THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL FAVOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES SHOULD ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. ...GREAT BASIN... FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WEAKER INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH THE MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY. ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 12:58:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 07:58:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408021257.i72CvJ907171@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021254 SWODY1 SPC AC 021252 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 021300Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNE OLF BIS ABR 35 NW STC 65 S DLH AUW MBS 20 SSE JXN 35 SSE SBN MTO ALN JEF FLV GRI 25 SE MHN 35 ENE AIA GCC 20 NE LVM BTM 27U SUN 25 N OWY 95 SSE BNO 55 ESE RDM 40 SE DLS 40 S EPH 70 ENE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 ESE YUM 35 SSE EED 50 SSW DRA 55 W TPH 65 NE SVE 50 NNW SVE RBL 55 SSE EKA 15 NNE ACV EUG 45 NE PDX EPH 40 NNE 63S ...CONT... 25 N PBG BFD SDF 40 NNW DYR UMN MHK 35 S HSI IML LIC 40 E RTN 35 SE TCC LBB ABI GGG 20 NNE MEI ANB 45 SW CSV JKL MGW 25 WNW CXY 30 ESE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...NRN ROCKIES TO SRN GREAT LAKES REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN ON SYNOPTIC SCALE REMAINS DOMINATED BY STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER OK...AND 90-110 KT 250 MB JET MAX OVER SRN CANADA IN ASSOCIATION WITH TIGHT HEIGHT GRADIENTS AROUND SRN RIM OF HUDSON BAY VORTEX. WEAK BUT AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD OVER TN VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS REGION. MEANWHILE NRN CA LOW IS MOVING INLAND AND EVOLVING INTO OPEN-WAVE TROUGH THAT WILL REACH ORE/ID BORDER AREA BY END OF PERIOD. WAVY SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM SRN LOWER MI WNWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MN...THEN SWWD THROUGH WEAK LOW INVOF SD BADLANDS...AND INTO ERN WY. BOTH SYNOPTIC FORCING AND MESOSCALE OUTFLOW-RELATED PROCESSES WILL SHIFT THIS FRONTAL ZONE SWD ACROSS REMAINDER SD/MN...AND MUCH OF IA/NEB...BY END OF PERIOD...WITH MAIN FRONTAL/LEE-SIDE LOW REFORMING OVER SWRN NEB/NWRN KS AREA. SFC TROUGH AND SECONDARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME QUASISTATIONARY FROM N-CENTRAL MT SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB. ...UPPER MS VALLEY REGION TO LOWER MI AND IL... TWO PRIMARY AREAS OF CONVECTION TO CONSIDER FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL -- BOTH ONGOING AND WITH POSSIBLE REGENERATION FARTHER SE -- COMPEL EWD EXTENTION OF CATEGORICAL SEVERE RISK. 1. MCS THAT HAS PRODUCED DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL -- ACROSS PORTIONS ND/MN...SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SEWD INVOF FRONTAL ZONE -- PERHAPS ACROSS WI AND LM AS FAR AS PORTIONS LOWER MI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO BECOME SFC BASED ONCE BOUNDARY LAYER RECOUPLES. SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS PRONOUNCED THERMAL/MOIST AXES JUST S OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH 50-100 NM WIDE CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY LARGE THETAE. 2. LARGER BUT MORE LOOSELY ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION FROM NERN KS/NWRN MO ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL/ERN IA. THIS APPEARS MORE MARGINAL/CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT. STRONGEST OF THIS ACTIVITY -- OVER IA MUST CROSS ANOTHER 100-150 NM OF RELATIVELY STABLE...LOW-THETAE SFC AIR BEFORE REACHING NNE-SSW ORIENTED CORRIDOR OF 60S/LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS IN CENTRAL AND NERN IL. IN MEANTIME...LOSS OF LLJ SUPPORT MAY RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY ABOUT 15Z. ...N-CENTRAL LOW PLAINS AND LOWER MO VALLEY - AFTERNOON-EVENING... ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT AND UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO ONE OR TWO MCS'S IS EXPECTED FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT -- THIS TIME DISPLACED SLIGHTLY FARTHER S THAN PAST COUPLE DAYS ALONG WITH LOW LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE. DAMAGING HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY OCCUR FROM ANY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SUPERCELLS...THOUGH STRONG CAPPING SHOULD INITIALLY LIMIT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL TSTMS. INFLOW LAYER AIR MASS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY MOIST ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN NEB...AND SHOULD RECOVER OVER NERN NEB AND WRN IA FROM EFFECTS OF PRIOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING WHICH HAS TEMPORARILY LOWERED DEW POINTS. AIR MASS BETWEEN FRONT AND RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SHOULD ACQUIRE 60S TO LOW 70S SFC DEW POINTS THROUGH MOIST ADVECTION AND EVAPOTRANSPIRATION...WHILE MAINTAINING SOME BACKED FLOW AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY. BY LATE AFTERNOON EXPECT 3000-5000 J/KG MLCAPE IN THAT AREA. RESULTING MCS SHOULD TRACK SEWD ACROSS MO VALLEY TOWARD SRN IA/NRN MO OVERNIGHT...WITH WIND DAMAGE MAIN THREAT. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS/NRN ROCKIES... LARGE AREA OF POST-FRONTAL ELY FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PLAINS OF MT AND NERN WY. ALTHOUGH MID-UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL OVERLIE WY/MT ROCKIES THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...AIR MASS SHOULD MOISTEN AND DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN AND INVOF SFC TROUGH. STRONG LOW-MIDLEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE 0-3 KM HODOGRAPHS -- I.E.. 150-250 J/KG SRH -- AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEARS -- 35-40 KT -- FOR SUPERCELLS WITH ACCOMPANYING LARGE HAIL THREAT...PERHAPS EVOLVING INTO BOWS. WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST GIVEN RATHER DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS INTO WHICH ANY CONVECTION WILL BE MOVING. ...ERN ORE/ID THROUGH GREAT BASIN REGION... WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP FROM ERN ORE/SERN WA ACROSS PORTIONS ID THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAP WEAKENS AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN AHEAD OF APCHG MIDLEVEL TROUGH. BROAD AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE PRESENTLY ANALYZED OVER ERN WA/ORE SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT. SFC HEATING AND MOISTURE SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE WITH MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS EXTENDING UP TO WITHIN 575-650 MB LAYER. SOME ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO SHORT LINE SEGMENTS OR BOWS WITH ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. LARGE HAIL ALSO IS POSSIBLE. SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BECOME MORE SPORADIC WITH SWD/SEWD EXTENT FROM ERN ORE THROUGH NV AND UT AS LARGE SCALE SUPPORT DIMINISHES AWAY FROM PACIFIC COAST TROUGH. HOWEVER...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYERS AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL OFFSET DRY SFC AIR ENOUGH TO YIELD 300-600 J/KG MLCAPE OVER BASINS. A FEW DRY MICROBURSTS WITH GUSTS NEAR SEVERE LEVELS ARE POSSIBLE. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS -- TS ALEX... GIVEN FCST WIND FIELDS OVER NRN SEMICIRCLE OF THIS SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK TO MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED LOW-TOP SUPERCELLS...YIELDING ONLY OUTSIDE POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF/WEAK TORNADOES. HOWEVER...ANY STRENGTHENING/EXPANSION OF THIS SYSTEM BEYOND CURRENT PROGS...AND/OR ANY DEEPER INLAND SPREAD OF FAVORABLE SHEAR OVER NERN QUADRANT...MIGHT ENLARGE HODOGRAPH AND ELEVATE TORNADO PROBABILITIES PAST CATEGORICAL OUTLOOK CRITERIA. REF NHC ADVISORIES UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC FOR LATEST TS WATCHES/WARNINGS...AND FCSTS OF TRACK AND SFC WIND FIELDS. ..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 16:39:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 11:39:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408021639.i72Gd5915957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 021636 SWODY1 SPC AC 021634 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1134 AM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 021630Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 NW MLS GDV Y22 45 NNE ABR 25 WSW STC 40 NW EAU 50 S ESC 10 SE OSC MTC 35 NE FWA MTO ALN JEF FLV GRI 25 SE MHN 35 ENE AIA 81V BIL 45 SE LWT 85 NW MLS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RDM 40 SE DLS ALW 40 WSW S80 45 NE BOI 35 S WEY MLD OWY 85 NNW WMC 4LW RDM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N OTH 40 NW DLS EPH 30 NNE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW IPL 40 SE EDW 35 SE BIH 25 SW NFL 35 NNW RNO 30 SSW SVE 35 SSE RBL 30 SW UKI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW GAD 40 SE BNA 30 S CKV 60 S HRO 30 NW FYV 30 ENE EMP 35 S HSI 25 WSW MCK 55 WSW GLD 40 N CAO 30 NW AMA 55 SSW CDS 25 ENE GGG 50 WNW JAN 20 WNW GAD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N BML 15 NNW ELM 15 ENE IPT 20 SSW MSV 20 NE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ORE AND SOUTHERN ID... BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL POSE A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS THROUGHOUT THIS ZONE TODAY. ...WI/LOWER MI... MCS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL WI IS MOVING INTO A MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS LAKE MI INTO LOWER MI. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SOME HAIL POTENTIAL AS WELL. ...IL/IND... REMNANT CLUSTER OF DECAYING CONVECTION OVER WESTERN IL WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSING A RISK OF NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. AIRMASS IN THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES EXPECTED AROUND 2000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION IF NEW DEVELOPMENT CAN OCCUR. THESE STORMS WOULD SPREAD INTO IND BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING. ...SD/NEB/MN/IA THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT... MAIN SURFACE LOW PERSISTS OVER NEB/SD...WITH BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTH OF LOW. A VERY WARM/MOIST AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SD BY LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE CAP SLOWLY WEAKENING. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ROTATING OUT OF WY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL SD BY 00Z...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. AMPLE CAPE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE UPSCALE INTO AN MCS BY LATE EVENING OVER EASTERN SD/NERN NEB...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS INTO MN/IA OVERNIGHT. THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK IN LATER UPDATES IF CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO INCREASES. ...MT... MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD MID/UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS EASTERN AND CENTRAL MT. STRONG CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIKELY LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE PLAINS. HOWEVER...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST MT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 25-30 KNOTS OF WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ...ORE/ID... UPPER LOW REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CA THIS MORNING...BUT IS FORECAST TO BEGIN LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO ORE BY THIS EVENING. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS EASTERN ORE AND SOUTHERN ID...WHERE STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD THIS AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THIS REGION...WITH RATHER COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND 35-45 KNOTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUPPORTING A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS. ...CAROLINAS... VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES OVER THE CAROLINA COAST REMAIN RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALEX MAY POSE A RISK OF BRIEF TORNADOES...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING MAX DIURNAL HEATING. ..HART/TAYLOR.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 2 20:11:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 15:11:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408022010.i72KAO916225@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 022005 SWODY1 SPC AC 022004 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0304 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 022000Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S DTW LAF ALN COU STJ BBW CDR 45 NE DGW SHR 35 WNW MLS GDV DIK 45 NNE MBG 20 NNW STC 25 NNW RHI 70 W ANJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM DLS 35 NW PUW 10 NNW CTB 35 S HVR 3HT PUC BCE 30 NE P38 60 WNW ELY 70 N LMT DLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL BTV 40 ENE BFD CMH 15 W LUK 40 ENE OWB 55 NE MKL 20 WSW MKL 15 NNW MEM 50 SW ARG SGF CNK 25 SW EAR 35 NNE MCK IML 40 N CAO HOB 50 S MAF AUS 45 SSW LFK BTR 45 N MOB ANB HSV 45 WNW CSV LOZ 30 WNW EKN 15 E AOO 20 SE AVP 10 E JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW OTH EUG 45 NNW EAT 40 NNW 63S ...CONT... 20 WSW IPL NID 45 SSW TPH NFL 30 ENE SVE 45 WNW SVE 45 NW RBL 65 S EKA. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN MT/WY EWD TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...ERN MT/ERN WY EWD INTO THE SD/NERN NEB/IA... MAIN SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED IN SOUTH CENTRAL SD...SE OF PHP...WITH QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING NWWD BACK ACROSS SRN MT AND NEWD INTO EAST CENTRAL SD. A WARM/MOIST AIRMASS WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES IS ONCE AGAIN RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG ACROSS SD/NEB. HOWEVER...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA REMAINS STRONGLY CAPPED...THOUGH ANY ELEVATED CONVECTION WOULD HAVE ENOUGH SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS INDICATED IN WV IMAGERY IN WRN WY AND SHOULD MOVE INTO SD THIS EVENING. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD FURTHER AID THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SD. AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STORMS WITH A RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL. STORMS MAY BE SLIGHTLY ELEVATED...BUT STRONG ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS MAY ALSO SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO AND WIND DAMAGE. THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS LATER TONIGHT AND SPREAD ACROSS EASTERN SD/NERN NEB/IA...WITH AN ENHANCED THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THIS AREA COULD BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK AT 01Z IF CONFIDENCE OF THIS SCENARIO INCREASES. ...WI/MI/MN... NUMEROUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE UP INTO NRN WI. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD WITH THE FRONT AND GRADUALLY BACK BUILD INTO CENTRAL MN ALONG THE COLD FRONT. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 40-50 KT DEEP LATER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SEVERE HAIL/WINDS. OTHER STORMS ARE DEVELOPING/SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI ALONG/AHEAD OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER WI MCS. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT...ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR SOME HAIL ACROSS THE AREA. REFERENCE WW 687. ...WRN MT... SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN ID WILL ENHANCE THE LIFT ACROSS THE AREA WITH NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS WEAK...30-35 KT MID LEVEL WINDS AND LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS MAY BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND EVENTS. ...ORE/ID... UPPER LOW IS LIFTING NEWD INTO SRN WA AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. STRONG DIURNAL HEATING IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 35 KT MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL AND WINDS. ...NV/UT/SRN UT... HIGH LEVEL IMPULSE WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL UT WITH A SPEED MAX MOVING THROUGH ERN NV/UT. STORMS HAVE RECENTLY ORGANIZED INTO A LINE FROM NERN NV SWWD INTO WRN UT. 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WINDS...LARGER TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND MID LEVEL WINDS PERPENDICULAR TO THE LINE SUGGESTS THAT DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT AS THE STORMS SPREAD NWD. ...IL/IND... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM WRN IN SWWD INTO SRN IL. ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND 30-35 KT MID/HIGH NWLY FLOW...STORMS HAVE MOVED SEWD AWAY FROM LOW LEVEL JET. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH BRIEF WIND/HAIL...BUT THREAT WILL DECREASE AS STORMS MOVE EWD AWAY FROM THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL FLOW. ...ERN CAROLINAS... OUTER BANDS OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH TS ALEX HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH WEAK WIND PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT A TORNADO THREAT. ..IMY.. 08/02/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 01:06:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 02 Aug 2004 20:06:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408030105.i7315f904735@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030103 SWODY1 SPC AC 030101 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 PM CDT MON AUG 02 2004 VALID 030100Z - 031200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW DBQ 20 WSW BRL 45 SW IRK 10 WSW FNB BBW 30 WSW CDR 30 S GCC 45 WNW 4BQ 30 SW GDV 45 SSE SDY 15 NE BIS 60 SE JMS 45 SSE AXN RST 30 WSW DBQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM HUL 10 NNE MPV ELM 15 SW FKL 25 ESE FDY 35 E MIE 40 WNW SDF 30 ENE PAH 25 NNW UNO 45 SSW OJC 35 SSW EAR 15 WNW MCK 25 WSW GLD 35 NNE CAO 55 NNE HOB 45 S MAF 15 E AUS 45 N LFT 45 NW CEW 40 S AUO 20 NE LGC RMG 30 SE CSV 40 SW 5I3 20 E CRW 30 NW CXY 20 NNW ABE 10 E JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW YUM 15 WNW LAS 25 SE EKO 50 NW OWY 85 SSE BNO 65 NNE SVE 35 ESE MHS 25 WSW MFR EUG 45 NNW EAT 40 NNW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... BUILDING UPPER RIDGE HAS SHIFTED INTO THE PLAINS TODAY AND EFFECTIVELY SUPPRESSED BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. ASIDE FROM ISOLATED STORMS OVER NRN NEB WHICH HAVE RECENTLY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE NORTH OF BOUNDARY...ESSENTIALLY DECOUPLED FROM THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND LIKELY ROOTED AOA 850MB. THIS SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING WITH NEW CONVECTION NOW INCREASING OVER SRN SD FROM BRULE TO JERAULD COUNTIES. INTERPOLATING FROM 00Z SOUNDINGS...SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE FRONT WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION. SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THIS WARM ADVECTION ZONE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE POSSIBLY CLUSTERING INTO ANOTHER MCS AS IT PROPAGATES SEWD ACROSS SERN SD INTO NWRN IA. LARGE HAIL AND WITH TIME DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANOTHER ZONE OF POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT IS WITH THE CONVECTION SPREADING EWD ACROSS SRN MT. ESELY FLOW IN THE LOWEST 2 KM SUGGEST THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCREASE AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS SERN MT INTO NWRN SD/SWRN ND LATE THIS EVENING. IF ACTIVITY DEVELOPS INTO BOWING LINE SEGMENTS DAMAGING WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS CONVECTION...OTHERWISE LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ...NWRN U.S... DIURNAL COOLING AND CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING IN THE WAKE OF UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAVE EASED THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN INTERIOR. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN ORE...DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS APPEARS LIMITED IN ITS ABILITY TO SUPPORT SEVERE DEEP CONVECTION. ...CAROLINAS... NNEWD DRIFT TO ALEX WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINA COAST LATE DAY1. INCREASING SHEAR MAY SUPPORT STORM ROTATION BUT MORE EFFICIENT SUPERCELLS SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE THIS PERIOD. ..DARROW.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 06:02:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 01:02:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408030601.i7361g930156@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 030559 SWODY1 SPC AC 030557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1257 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 031200Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF DIK 40 SW ABR 30 ENE MKT 35 E MSN 20 SSE CGX 10 WSW DNV 35 SSE SPI 45 NW COU TOP 30 WSW HUT 60 NW GCK 35 WSW IML 40 SW BFF 45 WSW GCC 30 NNE COD 10 NE BZN 40 W GTF 20 N CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT 25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 20 E JAN 15 ENE RMG 30 SW BLF 40 WSW BKW 30 W LOZ 35 SW CKV 30 NW DYR 55 NW POF 15 SSW VIH 50 N SGF 35 NE OKC 45 N CDS 25 SSE LBB 40 SW P07 ...CONT... 65 SW GBN 20 SSW PRC 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 30 N TWF 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 45 W PUW 40 NNE EPH 15 N EAT 10 ESE YKM 40 SSE RDM 70 SSW RDM 35 SE EUG 50 NNE PDX 30 ENE SEA 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 NNW MOT 20 NW JMS AXN 35 S CWA 35 SSW MBL 35 N MBS 70 ENE OSC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE MID MS VALLEY... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO MID MS VALLEY... LARGE SCALE UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN DURING THE DAY TUESDAY AS SRN ROCKIES SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTS NWD...THEN EWD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AN UPSTREAM NRN LATITUDE SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SEWD AND PHASE WITH THIS FEATURE ENABLING A MORE PRONOUNCED TROUGH TO EVOLVE AND DEEPEN OVER THE MS VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT WITH LARGE SCALE HEIGHT FALLS OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. WHICH SHOULD ACT TO SHARPEN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY FROM NRN IL...WWD INTO CENTRAL NEB WHERE VERY HOT SFC TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S-LOW 100S SHOULD AID BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW/DRY LINE OVER SRN NEB BY 22Z. INITIAL ACTIVITY SHOULD BE HIGH BASED BUT WILL SLOWLY MOISTEN/LOWER AS TSTMS ENCOUNTER VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM. STRONG VEERING PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...HOWEVER CLUSTERING OF CONVECTION AND STRENGTHENING LLJ DURING THE EVENING FAVOR MCS DEVELOPMENT ALONG/NORTH OF FRONTAL ZONE. EWD MOVEMENT INTO THE MID MS VALLEY IS EXPECTED AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL WITH SUPERCELLS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT DOWNSTREAM. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... PERSISTENT ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ON BACK SIDE OF SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL FORCE MOISTURE...SFC DEW POINTS AOA 50F...AGAINST THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT WHERE DIURNAL HEATING WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH WRN MT AROUND 00Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTION FORCING IT EWD ONTO THE PLAINS WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS A DAMAGING WIND GUST MAY OCCUR WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS AS THEY SPREAD TOWARD THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...COASTAL CAROLINAS... VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF ALEX AS IT APPROACHES THE OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC. UNLESS ALEX TURNS MORE NLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SUPERCELL TORNADOES WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE...OR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SLIGHT RISK IS NOT ANTICIPATED UNLESS A CHANGE IN TRACK OCCURS. ...NERN U.S... STRENGTHENING UPPER JET IN BASE OF APPROACHING TROUGH WILL BRUSH NRN MOST PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. TODAY. SOME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF SFC WIND SHIFT BUT LAPSE RATES WILL NOT STEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND SPREADS ACROSS REGION. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT FORECAST THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY CONDUCIVE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ..DARROW.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 12:48:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 07:48:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408031247.i73ClI924676@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031244 SWODY1 SPC AC 031242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 031300Z - 041200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 10 NE DIK 20 SW ABR 35 ENE MKT 35 E MSN 30 WSW SBN 15 SE DNV 10 SE ALN 35 ENE SZL TOP 35 N RSL 35 S MCK 35 WSW IML 30 SSE BFF 45 WSW GCC 25 E DLN 20 SSW MSO 45 N MSO 65 NNE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW MOT 20 NW JMS AXN 35 S CWA 35 SSW MBL 35 N MBS 70 ENE OSC ...CONT... 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT 25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 20 E JAN 15 ENE RMG 30 SW BLF 40 WSW BKW 30 W LOZ 35 SW CKV 30 NW DYR 55 NW POF 15 SSW VIH 50 N SGF 35 NE OKC 45 N CDS 25 SSE LBB 40 SW P07 ...CONT... 65 SW GBN 20 SSW PRC 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 30 N TWF 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 45 W PUW 40 NNE EPH 15 N EAT 10 ESE YKM 40 SSE RDM 70 SSW RDM 35 SE EUG 50 NNE PDX 30 ENE SEA 25 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... ACTIVE WAVE TRAIN IS FORECAST BETWEEN OMEGA-TYPE BLOCKING PATTERN EVOLVING ACROSS CANADA AND DOMINANT MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SRN ROCKIES INTO SRN PLAINS. SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA /OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MEAN RIDGE POSITION WITH RESULTANT DOWNSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN GREAT LAKES INTO MID MS VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...IT APPEARS THAT PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES SEWD TO LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL NEB AND THEN EWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY... STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME /OBSERVED IN 12Z OMA/DVN SOUNDINGS/... DIABATIC HEATING AND MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS /PRESENT FROM THE SRN LOW PLAINS INTO THE MID MO VALLEY/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AFTERNOON MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG AND S OF AFOREMENTIONED QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY. MCS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING OVER CNTRL SD SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE SEWD ALONG COOL SIDE OF BOUNDARY...BEING FEED BY DESTABILIZING AIRMASS TO THE S ACROSS ERN NEB INTO IA. IF COMPLEX CAN PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON... DEEPENING/WARMING OF INFLOW BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASINGLY STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP TO THE W ACROSS PORTIONS OF SD AND NEB LATER TODAY AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHS /CURRENTLY OVER S-CNTRL MT INTO WRN WY AND OVER CNTRL CO/ TRANSLATE EWD INTO DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. UPSCALE EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS OR SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALONG NOSE OF LLJ AXIS AND AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW FROM CNTRL/ERN NEB INTO IA. CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER SERN IA/NERN MO MAY POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS IT PROGRESSES SEWD ALONG WEAK SECONDARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM N-CNTRL MO INTO SRN IL. WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...HOWEVER MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL. ...NRN ROCKIES... VIGOROUS VORTICITY CENTER /CURRENTLY OVER NERN ORE/ WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE ID PNHDL/FAR WRN MT AND INTO SRN ALBERTA TODAY. EXTRAPOLATION PLACES CORRESPONDING REGION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INTO CANADA PRIOR TO PEAK HEATING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SUGGEST THAT PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE COMPONENT ALONG TRAILING EDGE OF THIS FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STORMS LATER TODAY ACROSS WRN MT WITHIN WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST SHEAR SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR LARGE HAIL. ...NC OUTER BANKS... PER 11Z TPC HURRICANE FORECAST/ADVISORY...CENTER OF ALEX IS EXPECTED PASS VERY NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TODAY...PRIOR TO ACCELERATING NEWD INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS TRACK SUGGESTS MOST FAVORABLE REGION FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE-SPAWNED TORNADOES WILL LIKELY REMAIN OFF THE COAST. NONETHELESS...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS VALID FOR MID TO LATE MORNING INDICATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY /I.E. 100-150 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPES/ TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPING WWD AROUND THE HURRICANE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 1849. ...NORTHEASTERN STATES... LOOSELY ORGANIZED BAND OF STORMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS MORNING ALONG AND JUST S/E OF ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO. THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AND NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC...DAYTIME HEATING COUPLED WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE 60S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF FRONT AND ANY ONGOING STORMS LATER TODAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS AND MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KTS MAY SUPPORT SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS/BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF STRONGER INSTABILITY. ..MEAD.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 16:21:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 11:21:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408031620.i73GKN926317@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 031617 SWODY1 SPC AC 031615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 031630Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FRM 45 S RST DBQ MLI BRL 45 ENE OMA SUX YKN 20 NW FSD FRM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OLF DIK HON MKT MSN SBN HUF 40 W MDH COU TOP HLC SNY 81V SHR LVM 45 NW 3HT OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WNW 3B1 3B1 AUG MPV BTV 25 NNE PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT 25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 20 E JAN 15 ENE RMG 30 SW BLF 40 WSW BKW 30 W LOZ 35 SW CKV 30 NW DYR 55 NW POF 15 SSW VIH 50 N SGF 35 NE OKC 50 NNE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 70 E PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 SE EPH 20 NE YKM 45 SE RDM 50 NNW LMT 40 S EUG 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 WSW BIS 10 NNE AXN 25 SW RHI 30 WSW MBL 10 S OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VT/NH/ME... ...SD/MN/IA/IL... COMPLEX AND ACTIVE CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN UNITED STATES TODAY. INTENSE BOW ECHO NOW OVER SOUTHEAST SD IS FORECAST TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IA THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS OVER THIS REGION IS VERY MOIST AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG. SLOW DAYTIME HEATING AHEAD OF STORMS AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL FURTHER DESTABILIZE THE AIRMASS OVER IA THIS AFTERNOON. RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND EVENT ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EASTWARD EXTENT OF THESE STORMS REMAINS A QUESTION...BUT IT APPEARS POSSIBLE THAT ACTIVITY COULD POSE A THREAT TO PARTS OF NORTHERN IL/NORTHERN IND LATER TONIGHT. ...SD/NEB/IA/MO THIS EVENING... AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER CENTRAL/NORTHERN NEB...SOUTH OF CURRENT SD BOW ECHO...WHERE AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES MAY EXCEED 4000 J/KG. COMBINATION OF FULL HEATING AND SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING OUT OF THE ROCKIES MAY AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN SD/NORTHERN NEB. THESE STORMS WILL POSE AN INITIAL RISK OF VERY LARGE HAIL...BUT WILL LIKELY TRANSITION INTO ANOTHER MCS THAT WILL TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WESTERN IA AND NORTHERN MO OVERNIGHT. ...MT/SD/ND... EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW REMAINS OVER EASTERN MT TODAY...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F. CLOUDS SHOULD SLOWLY THIN OVER THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON...ALLOWING SUFFICIENT HEATING FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY TRACK EASTWARD TOWARD THE ND/SD BORDERS BY EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN YESTERDAY /0-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35 KNOTS/ SUGGESTING THAT A FEW SUPERCELLS COULD OCCUR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...NEW ENGLAND... SMALL MCV OVER NORTHERN VT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD INTO ME THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT RELATIVELY WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL DESTABILIZATION. LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REGION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF DAMAGING WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS. ...NC... HURRICANE ALEX CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD HAT THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND CELLULAR CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR BRIEF TORNADOES NEAR EYEWALL AND IMMEDIATELY NORTH OF CENTER...MAINLY OVER THE OUTER BANKS. ..HART.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 3 20:07:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 15:07:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408032006.i73K6c906888@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 032004 SWODY1 SPC AC 032002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 032000Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW LSE 20 NW MSN 25 ESE JVL 15 NNW MMO 40 E MLI 50 W CID 50 WSW FOD 40 N MCW 15 WSW LSE. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OLF DIK HON 20 NW MKT 20 NW MKT 35 NE VOK 10 NW MKE SBN 20 NE HUF 10 SW SLO 30 E COU 40 NE MKC 35 SW BIE 20 NNW MCK SNY 81V SHR LVM 45 NW 3HT OLF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S HUL 10 NE BGR AUG 10 NNW PWM 20 SE MWN 15 S BML 45 WSW 3B1 55 NNE 3B1 30 SW CAR 20 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW MFE 20 NW VCT 25 ESE CLL 40 N LFT 35 NNW AYS 25 WSW CHS 20 ESE ECG 30 NE CHO 30 W LOZ 55 SW CKV 20 WNW DYR 55 NW POF TBN 30 NNW SGF 15 SE PNC 50 NNE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 55 SSW TUS 50 N TUS 70 E PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NW ENV 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 SE EPH 20 NE YKM 45 SE RDM 50 NNW LMT 40 S EUG 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 20 WSW BIS 10 NNE AXN 25 SW RHI 30 WSW MBL 10 S OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN IA...EXTREME SERN MN...SWRN WI AND NRN IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF CNTRL ME... ...UPPER MS VLY AND MIDWEST... BOW ECHO WITH HISTORY OF SIGNIFICANT WIND DAMAGE CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD AT AROUND 45 KTS ALONG THE SCNTRL MN/NCNTRL IA BORDER. IT HAS NOT MADE A TURN TO THE RIGHT/SE AS EARLIER EXPECTED. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL WI AND THE AIR MASS BETWEEN THIS BOUNDARY AND THE WARM FRONT OVER IA HAS BECOME UNSTABLE. AS A RESULT...THE SLIGHT/MODERATE RISK AREAS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED NEWD INTO PARTS OF SRN WI. COMBO OF DRIER AIR AND LAKE BREEZE OVER NERN HALF OF WI WILL LIKELY MITIGATE THE SEVERE THREAT THERE THROUGH TONIGHT. FARTHER SOUTH...18Z DAVENPORT SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...THOUGH WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING 90F AND MAINTENANCE OF UPPER 70S DEW POINTS...CINH IS SUFFICIENTLY WEAK TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED INITIATION GIVEN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. GIVEN THE ABOVE TRENDS...PRIND THAT THE BOW ECHO SHOULD MOVE EWD...THEN GRADUALLY TURN/DEVELOP MORE SEWD ALONG H85-H3 THICKNESS LINES AND ALONG STRONGER CAP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS TURNED SELY ACROSS THE MDT RISK AREA AND WILL LIKELY AUGMENT THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEEDED TO SUSTAIN THE BOW. THUS...HIGHEST RISK OF SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS WILL LIKELY BE FROM NERN/ECNTRL IA...SWRN WI AND POSSIBLY INTO NRN IL THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER SWD IN CNTRL IA AS CINH WEAKENS OWING TO BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. THESE STORMS MAY ALSO TRACK EWD INTO THE MDT RISK AREA WITH DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL PLAINS... LATEST MESOANALYSIS DENOTES A 1006 MB SURFACE LOW OVER CNTRL NEB WITH A LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THROUGH CNTRL KS. THERE HAS BEEN VARYING AMOUNTS OF MIDLEVEL CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS NEB/CNTRL KS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE MANAGED TO CLIMB WELL INTO THE 90S. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT A FEW SURFACE BASED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP VCNTY THESE FEATURES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN 2000-3000 J/KG MLCAPE...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE 25-30 KTS OF VERTICAL SHEAR. LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS SUGGEST THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS. LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR TOO...BUT THE TROPOSPHERE IS RATHER WARM. ...MAINE... LOOSELY ORGANIZED LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL MAINE. MLCAPE TO 1000 J/KG AND PRESENCE OF A WEAK MCV MAY SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK IMPULSE IS NOTED IN WATER VAPOR LOOPS FROM SCNTRL MT INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF TSTMS HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ACROSS SERN MT AND NERN WY AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD INTO WRN SD THIS EVENING. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE LACK OF STRONG INSOLATION. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. FARTHER W...MOUNTAIN TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MAY PRODUCE AN ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO THIS EVENING. ...ERN CAROLINAS... MOREHEAD CITY VWP SHOWS THAT THE WIND FLOW HAS TURNED NLY AS HRCN ALEX ACCELERATES NEWD. THUS...THE TORNADO THREAT HAS DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 08/03/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 01:36:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 20:36:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408040135.i741Z4905912@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040131 SWODY1 SPC AC 040130 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0830 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SBN 10 WNW IND 20 SE DEC 40 WSW UIN 15 NW FNB 10 W OMA 45 SSW FOD 20 ENE CID 30 ESE DBQ RFD 35 ESE RFD 40 S CGX 45 S SBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E OLF 30 WSW DIK 35 WSW MBG 10 ESE HON 25 NE VOK 20 NW GRR 25 N MTC 35 W CLE 20 S CMH 45 SSW HUF 35 NW STL 10 SSW OJC 35 NW BVO 45 NNW GAG 35 NW CNK 10 NNW SNY 55 NNE CPR 30 N COD 20 W LWT 10 E OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 S SEM 30 SSE RMG 15 NNE SPA 20 ESE ECG 30 NE CHO 30 W LOZ 55 SW CKV 20 WNW DYR 55 NW POF TBN 30 NNW SGF 50 SW JLN 30 NE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 45 ENE PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NE EKO 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 NNW BNO 30 SE RDM 50 WNW RDM PDX 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 10 NE BIS 40 NNW ABR 25 SW RHI 35 NE MTW 35 SSW OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN-ERN IA/FAR NRN MO/PARTS OF SRN WI/MUCH OF CENTRAL-NRN IL INTO WRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SERN MT AND NERN WY ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... WNWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/ MIDWEST. WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB INTO CENTRAL KS WILL TRACK EWD TO NRN IL/NRN MO OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... UPPER TROUGH OVER MT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION. ...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL EWD TO NRN-ERN IND/WRN OH OVERNIGHT... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SRN WI JUST NORTH OF MSN...WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN IL /AROUND 30 S CGX/ AND WNWWD INTO SRN WI NEAR MSN. A SECOND LESS DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR NRN IL TO WRN-CENTRAL OH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS/BOW ECHO OVER ERN IA EXTENDED WWD TOWARD DSM. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000 J/KG OVER WRN OH TO 4500 J/KG OVER SERN IA/. AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONGOING DAMAGING BOW ECHOES ACROSS SRN WI AND ERN IA ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER VEERING WIND PROFILES /WLY 50 KT MID-LEVEL WIND ATOP 50 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO NRN IL/ AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THESE TWO BOW ECHOES MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE DAMAGING BOW ECHO AND MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD INTO NRN IND. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF BOW OVER FAR ERN IA/FAR NWRN IL AND AIR MASS ACROSS IND/WRN OH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTS THIS BOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WRN OH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO TO NRN IL... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER ERN NEB INTO WRN-CENTRAL IA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS. PRIOR TO THE MCS/S DEVELOPMENT...TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. DAMAGING BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. THESE BOWS WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA AND POTENTIALLY FAR NRN MO...AND ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT BOW MOVING INTO NRN IL. THIS EXPECTED BOW MAY REACH CENTRAL/NRN IND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN WI/SRN LOWER MI... ELEVATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN WI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD SRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. INCREASING LLJ NOSING INTO NRN IL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF WAA ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WHICH SHOULD ALSO AID IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS/NRN NEB... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DESTABILIZE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING...CURRENT LINE OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN ND/WRN SD TONIGHT. ...PORITONS CENTRAL-ERN KS... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS KS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER AREA 00Z RAOBS SUGGESTS MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SERN AZ/PORTIONS SRN NM... A COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PULSE...WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 01:41:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 03 Aug 2004 20:41:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408040140.i741eC907744@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 040137 SWODY1 SPC AC 040136 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0836 PM CDT TUE AUG 03 2004 VALID 040100Z - 041200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 S SBN 10 WNW IND 20 SE DEC 40 WSW UIN 15 NW FNB 10 W OMA 45 SSW FOD 20 ENE CID 30 ESE DBQ RFD 35 ESE RFD 40 S CGX 45 S SBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E OLF 30 WSW DIK 35 WSW MBG 10 ESE HON 25 NE VOK 20 NW GRR 25 N MTC 35 W CLE 20 S CMH 45 SSW HUF 35 NW STL 10 SSW OJC 35 NW BVO 45 NNW GAG 35 NW CNK 10 NNW SNY 55 NNE CPR 30 N COD 20 W LWT 10 E OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW HUM 30 S SEM 30 SSE RMG 15 NNE SPA 20 ESE ECG 30 NE CHO 30 W LOZ 55 SW CKV 20 WNW DYR 55 NW POF TBN 30 NNW SGF 50 SW JLN 30 NE CDS 25 SE LBB 15 SSE P07 ...CONT... 75 WSW TUS 40 SSE PHX 45 ENE PHX 60 SSW INW 20 WSW FLG 45 SW GCN 65 SSE SGU 20 NE P38 60 NE EKO 20 NE SUN 50 N SUN 80 S S80 20 NNW BKE 50 NNW BNO 30 SE RDM 50 WNW RDM PDX 20 SE SEA 30 NE BLI ...CONT... 60 N ISN 10 NE BIS 40 NNW ABR 25 SW RHI 35 NE MTW 35 SSW OSC. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN-ERN IA/FAR NRN MO/MUCH OF CENTRAL-NRN IL INTO WRN IND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SERN MT AND NERN WY ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION... CORRECTED TO REMOVE SRN WI FROM MODERATE RISK HEADLINE ...SYNOPSIS... WNWLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXTEND FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALLOWING CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS TO CONTINUE TRACKING ESEWD FROM THE MID MO VALLEY TO THE SRN GREAT LAKES/ MIDWEST. WELL DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN NEB INTO CENTRAL KS WILL TRACK EWD TO NRN IL/NRN MO OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE... UPPER TROUGH OVER MT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS NEWD INTO MEAN RIDGE POSITION. ...FAR ERN IA/NRN IL EWD TO NRN-ERN IND/WRN OH OVERNIGHT... EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED AN E-W SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER SRN WI JUST NORTH OF MSN...WITH A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN IL /AROUND 30 S CGX/ AND WNWWD INTO SRN WI NEAR MSN. A SECOND LESS DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR NRN IL TO WRN-CENTRAL OH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH MCS/BOW ECHO OVER ERN IA EXTENDED WWD TOWARD DSM. AIR MASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS MODERATELY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPE 2000 J/KG OVER WRN OH TO 4500 J/KG OVER SERN IA/. AFTERNOON MODEL RUNS SUGGEST A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ONGOING DAMAGING BOW ECHOES ACROSS SRN WI AND ERN IA ARE EXPECTED TO TRACK ESEWD THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER VEERING WIND PROFILES /WLY 50 KT MID-LEVEL WIND ATOP 50 KT SWLY LLJ EXTENDING FROM NRN MO TO NRN IL/ AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CONDUCIVE FOR A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT. RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THESE TWO BOW ECHOES MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE DAMAGING BOW ECHO AND MOVE RAPIDLY ESEWD INTO NRN IND. GIVEN CURRENT SPEED OF BOW OVER FAR ERN IA/FAR NWRN IL AND AIR MASS ACROSS IND/WRN OH EXPECTED TO REMAIN MODERATELY UNSTABLE OVERNIGHT...SUGGESTS THIS BOW MAY REACH PORTIONS OF WRN OH BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...ERN NEB/IA/NRN MO TO NRN IL... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELLS OVER ERN NEB INTO WRN-CENTRAL IA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS. PRIOR TO THE MCS/S DEVELOPMENT...TORNADOES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA. DAMAGING BOW ECHOES WILL BE LIKELY BY MID TO LATE EVENING...GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED STRONG WIND FIELDS AND VERY UNSTABLE DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS. THESE BOWS WILL TRACK ESEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN IA AND POTENTIALLY FAR NRN MO...AND ACROSS NRN/CENTRAL IL IN THE WAKE OF THE CURRENT BOW MOVING INTO NRN IL. THIS EXPECTED BOW MAY REACH CENTRAL/NRN IND BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. ...SRN WI/SRN LOWER MI... ELEVATED ACTIVITY CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS SERN WI IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD SRN LOWER MI THIS EVENING. INCREASING LLJ NOSING INTO NRN IL OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN A ZONE OF WAA ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WHICH SHOULD ALSO AID IN ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE DAKOTAS/NRN NEB... ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY...ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF CURRENT ACTIVITY. SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY DESTABILIZE STARTING LATER THIS EVENING...CURRENT LINE OF STORMS BECOMING MORE ORIENTED NORMAL TO THE WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR ACTIVITY TO MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF SWRN ND/WRN SD TONIGHT. ...PORITONS CENTRAL-ERN KS... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS KS THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM NERN KS TO THE TX PANHANDLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR PER AREA 00Z RAOBS SUGGESTS MULTICELLS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE...BUT GIVEN VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. HIGH BASED ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO FAVOR DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...SERN AZ/PORTIONS SRN NM... A COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN PULSE...WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING IN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 12:48:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 07:48:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408041247.i74Clp911405@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041245 SWODY1 SPC AC 041243 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0743 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 041300Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW JHW 10 E DUJ 35 SE MGW 30 W BKW 45 N MSL 50 SW JBR 30 ESE FYV 30 NNE JLN 25 N COU 10 E DTW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF 45 N REJ 35 S PHP 35 NNW MHN 30 S MHN 30 NNW GLD 25 SSE DEN 20 WSW DGW 45 WSW BIL 50 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE LRD 15 ESE NIR 40 SE AUS 20 W LFK 45 NNE LFK 30 SSW GGG 35 WNW TPL 70 E FST 70 S MRF ...CONT... 65 S GBN 20 NE GBN 30 SW PRC 60 WNW GCN 15 NNE U24 45 ENE ENV 45 NW PIH 65 NE BOI 30 NNE BNO 25 S MHS 25 ENE ACV 15 ENE 4BK 25 ESE AST 15 NW CLM ...CONT... 50 N ISN 25 E PIR 15 ENE YKN 20 NNW FRM 10 SE LNR 40 NNE MTC ...CONT... 25 W ART 20 SSW PSM ...CONT... 20 ESE NEL 50 NNE HKY 35 E ANB 25 E AGS 10 E GSB 20 NE HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... AMPLIFIED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CONUS THIS FORECAST PERIOD. DOMINANT RIDGE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE SRN ROCKIES...BETWEEN TROUGHS OVER THE PACIFIC NW AND ERN THIRD OF THE NATION. HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING OUT OF THE MIDWEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVING SWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO WILL LEAD TO OVERALL AMPLIFICATION OF ERN U.S. TROUGH. AT THE SURFACE...MORNING MESOANALYSIS INDICATES SEVERAL WEAK WAVES ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS ACROSS THE SRN GREAT LAKES. WWD EXTENSION OF THIS FEATURE THEN STRETCHES NWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG OH VALLEY PART OF FRONT AND LARGE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AS WELL THAT PORTION OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. ...MID MS VALLEY EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC INDICATE TWO WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAXIMA/MCV/S THIS MORNING...ONE OVER SERN LOWER MI AND THE OTHER OVER NWRN IND. THESE FEATURES...IN PART... HAVE BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIDESPREAD...PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE BAND WHICH HAS PERSISTED OVERNIGHT. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...LARGELY AS A RESULT OF CONVECTIVE PROCESSING...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL DESTABILIZATION PROCESS. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MID 70S DEWPOINTS/ SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000-3000 J/KG...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY. IT APPEARS THAT GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL LIKELY OCCUR ALONG COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY /DISPLACED SWD FROM MAIN SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY/...ESPECIALLY AS CONSOLIDATING SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE OH VALLEY. RATHER STRONG ZONAL WIND FIELDS OBSERVED ON THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING /NAMELY THE LOWEST 3-4KM AGL/ SUGGEST THE LIKELIHOOD OF DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY WITH ANY EVOLVING BOW/LEWP STRUCTURES. EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG AND E OF MIGRATORY SURFACE LOW TRACK WHERE LOCALLY-BACKED SURFACE WINDS WILL ENHANCE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 50S. WHEN COUPLED WITH RATHER STEEP LAPSE RATES /OBSERVED ON 12Z RAP/DNR SOUNDINGS/...AIRMASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN A CORRIDOR FROM CNTRL/ERN MT SEWD ACROSS ERN WY/WRN SD/NEB PNHDL. OROGRAPHIC ASCENT...CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD ALL AID IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY ALONG WRN EDGE OF DEVELOPING INSTABILITY AXIS. 30-40KT WLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL RESULT IN MORE THAN SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ...PACIFIC NW... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NEAR 47N AND 135W/ IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH MEAN TROUGH POSITION AND EJECT NEWD ACROSS WA/ORE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...STEEP LAPSE RATES /PER 12Z SOUNDINGS/...CONVERGENCE ALONG APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ASCENT ALONG WINDWARD SIDE OF CASCADES MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL WIND/HAIL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ..MEAD/BRIGHT.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 16:37:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 11:37:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408041637.i74Gb0924422@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 041634 SWODY1 SPC AC 041632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 041630Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF REJ PHP MHN 15 SSW IML AKO FCL DGW SHR 40 NE WEY GTF 45 NE CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MFD IPT CXY HGR EKN CSV MEM HRO SGF MVN LUK MFD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RDM DLS EPH 45 WSW GEG LWS 30 NNW BKE 55 NNW BNO RDM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW BUF 10 ESE ROC 35 SE UCA 10 NNW BID ...CONT... 30 SSW ACY 20 SW LYH 10 NNW AVL 55 E CHA HSV 40 SW HSV 25 NNE 0A8 35 N LGC 50 SE AND 30 W FLO 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 35 S LRD 30 NW NIR 40 SW CLL 25 WSW LFK 20 N TYR 20 WSW MWL 35 ESE MAF 75 S MRF ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 45 E U24 30 E MLD 10 SW IDA 30 WSW 27U 15 SSE BKE 40 SE LMT 35 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK 20 NW PIR 20 NNW ANW 50 SE GLD 20 NE AMA 25 SSW END 15 WNW CNU 35 NE MKC 25 NNW OMA 20 SSW SPW 30 WNW MCW 30 W DBQ 25 NNW MMO 15 ESE DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF WA/ORE... ...OH/PA/WV/MD... BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES WILL ROTATE SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY...WITH BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS OCCURRING AHEAD OF LINE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN OH/WESTERN PA/NORTHERN WV. 25-35 KNOT WESTERLY 500MB WINDS...MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND REMNANT MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF MCS WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WITH THESE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON /REF WW 706/. EASTWARD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT IS UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...IF ACTIVITY CAN BECOME SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED...IT COULD REMAIN SEVERE INTO CENTRAL PA/CENTRAL MD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...KY/IN/IL/MO/AR/TN... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS WESTWARD FROM OH CONVECTION INTO SOUTHERN IND/IL. CLOUDS ARE THINNING AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...WITH STRONG DESTABILIZATION EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK CAP WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONGER WESTERLIES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP WESTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO/NORTHERN AR...AND SOUTHWARD AS FAR AS WESTERN/MIDDLE TN BEFORE WEAKENING THIS EVENING. ...MT/WY/SD/NEB/CO... SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE PRESENT OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THIS MORNING...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S TO NEAR 60F FROM WESTERN NEB INTO EASTERN MT. FULL SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL MT FIRST...THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL WY AND NORTHEAST CO. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FROM CENTRAL WY NORTHWARD WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ...WA/ORE... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH JUST OFF THE NORTHERN CA COAST. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE INLAND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...AIDING IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH CENTRAL ORE INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN WA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE...WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. HIGH-BASED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL APPEAR POSSIBLE. ..HART/BANACOS.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 4 20:10:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 15:10:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408042009.i74K9k928343@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 042004 SWODY1 SPC AC 042002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 042000Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE OLF REJ PHP MHN 15 SSW IML AKO FCL DGW SHR 40 S LVM BTM 25 ESE S80 50 NNE BNO 15 NW BNO 35 SW RDM 10 NE DLS 10 WNW EPH 45 NNE 4OM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM MVN 40 NW HTS 30 E PKB 25 SE FKL 20 ENE IPT 25 SW AVP 25 WNW ILG 15 W DCA 30 NE SSU CSV MEM HRO SGF MVN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW ACY 20 SW LYH 10 NNW AVL 55 E CHA HSV 40 SW HSV 25 NNE 0A8 35 N LGC 50 SE AND 30 W FLO 25 SSE OAJ ...CONT... 10 SW BUF 10 ESE ROC 35 SE UCA 10 NNW BID ...CONT... 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK 20 NW PIR 20 NNW ANW 50 SE GLD 20 NE AMA 25 SSW END 15 WNW CNU 35 NE MKC 25 NNW OMA 20 SSW SPW 30 WNW MCW 30 W DBQ 25 NNW MMO 15 ESE DTW ...CONT... 35 S LRD 30 NW NIR 40 SW CLL 25 WSW LFK 20 N TYR 20 WSW MWL 35 ESE MAF 75 S MRF ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 45 E U24 30 E MLD 10 SW IDA 30 WSW 27U 15 SSE BKE 40 SE LMT 35 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS WWD TO THE OH/TN VLYS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ...CNTRL APPALACHIANS... A LINE OF TSTMS HAS BEEN PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE ACROSS THE UPPER OH VLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS BECAME FAVORABLY ALIGNED WITH THE WLY FLOW REGIME AND SEGMENTS OF THE LINE BOWED. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME STEEP ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND IT APPEARS THAT TSTMS WILL MAINTAIN CHARACTER AS THEY CROSS THE RIDGE TOPS INTO CNTRL/SCNTRL PA...ERN WV PNHDL...WRN/CNTRL MD AND THE NRN VA. HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN ALONG/NORTH OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE WHERE WLY FLOW REGIME IS STRONGER. ADDITIONALLY...A BRIEF ISOLD SPIN-UP IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY TSTMS THAT CAN DEVELOP VCNTY E-W BOUNDARY ACROSS CNTRL PA. STATE COLLEGE VWP RECENTLY EXHIBITED A HODOGRAPH WITH 150 M2/S2 0-1KM SRH AND THERE WERE REPORTS OF A BRIEF TORNADO BY A CITIZEN IN CLEARFIELD COUNTY. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE THREATS WILL EXTEND. ONE NEGATIVE FACTOR IN SUSTENANCE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LINE OF TSTMS IS THE WLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC OWING TO AFFECTS OF HRCN ALEX FAR OFFSHORE. THIS COULD CAUSE THE TSTMS TO WEAKEN WITH TIME THIS EVENING. ...OH/TN VLYS... THOUGH A WELL-DEFINED WIND SHIFT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE OH RVR...MAIN SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH...ROUGHLY FROM NRN OH TO CNTRL IND...THEN WWD INTO NRN MO. STRONGEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW ACROSS THE KY COALFIELDS INTO THE KY LAKES REGION. PERSISTENT MOIST UNSTABLE INFLOW WILL ENHANCE LOCAL CONVERGENCE AND SUPPORT TSTMS INTO THIS EVENING FROM SRN WV INTO SRN/ERN KY. THIS REGION RESIDES ON SRN PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW AND LOUISVILLE/JACKSON VWP SHOW 30-35 KTS OF WLY FLOW AROUND 4-5 KM. THUS...A FEW TSTMS MAY TEND TO BOW AND PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. FARTHER WEST...INSOLATION HAS NOT BEEN AS STRONG AHEAD OF THE OUTFLOW. AIR MASS...HOWEVER...HAS RECOVERED NWD TO THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. AS HEIGHT FALLS BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH DIGGING TROUGH...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS FRONT FROM SERN MO INTO SRN IL AS CINH ERODES. STORMS WILL THEN MIGRATE SSEWD INTO THE LOWER OH/TN VLYS. MAGNITUDE OF MLCAPE AND MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS HAIL. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE APPEARS TO BE MOVING ACROSS NWRN WY ATTM PER SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE MOUNTAIN CONVECTION FROM SCNTRL MT INTO ERN WY THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW FROM SURFACE HIGH RIDGING SWD THROUGH THE PLAINS HAS MAINTAINED 50S DEW POINTS ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. AS CINH IS ERODED...TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TOWARD WRN SD AND THE NEB PNHDL LATER THIS EVENING WITH A DECREASING SEVERE THREAT. ...NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... MIDLEVEL JET STREAK MOVING INTO SRN ORE ATTM IS PROVIDING A LARGE SCALE ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT ENHANCED TSTMS ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THIS AFTERNOON. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS CINH ERODING GRADUALLY ACROSS THE REGION AND MOUNTAIN TSTMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP INTO THE VLYS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN BULK SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS AND LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT AND SPREAD NEWD TOWARD THE CANADIAN BORDER OVERNIGHT. ...FOUR CORNERS REGION... WEAK MCV MOVING NWD THROUGH CNTRL AZ WILL LIKELY ENHANCE TSTMS ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF MONSOONAL BOUNDARY FROM NRN AZ INTO SRN UT...SWRN CO AND NWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SLOPES OF CNTRL NM MOUNTAINS. ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE. ..RACY.. 08/04/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 01:16:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 04 Aug 2004 20:16:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408050115.i751Fp917122@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050111 SWODY1 SPC AC 050109 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 PM CDT WED AUG 04 2004 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE SBY 15 WNW NHK 20 SSW DCA DCA 20 NNW ILG 10 SSE ABE 25 N TTN 10 SSE EWR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NNW FCA 35 WNW MSO 30 ENE S80 40 NE BKE 20 NW BNO 30 SW RDM 10 N DLS 10 WNW EPH 45 NNE 4OM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW 3DU 30 S GTF 45 N LWT 70 ENE HVR 60 N OLF 30 E GDV 40 S REJ 35 ESE 81V 40 WSW GCC 40 W SHR 35 S LVM 35 ESE 27U 25 N 27U 35 SSW 3DU. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW BFF 30 NNE SNY 50 E AKO 35 ENE LAA 15 SW EHA 15 ENE DHT 30 SW CAO 10 SSW TAD 20 N COS 15 WSW CYS 30 WSW BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNW ISN 30 ENE DIK 20 NW PIR 10 NNW ANW 30 S MCK 10 N LBL 70 N CDS 35 NNW FSI 50 SW TUL 50 NNE MKO 40 NW TBN 20 WSW STL 25 ENE SLO 25 W LUK 30 SE CMH 30 SSW FKL 40 SW ELM 25 NE MSV 10 NNW BID ...CONT... 20 NNE ECG 25 NE RDU 25 ESE SPA 30 NNW ATL 20 ESE GLH 35 S FTW 40 SSE BGS 30 WNW FST 45 SW MRF ...CONT... 75 SW GBN 45 ENE IGM 30 E U24 30 E MLD 35 WNW IDA 40 NW SUN 10 W OWY 45 WNW WMC 30 SE MHS 20 WSW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 15 WSW ABY 10 SSE MCN 30 W AGS 30 E AGS 15 E CHS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN CO... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM MT INTO NERN WY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NWRN U.S.... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... LEADING EDGE OF LONG-LIVED MCS CONTINUES ITS EWD PROGRESSION AT ROUGHLY 30KT ACROSS THE DELMARVA. CURRENT SPEED SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE OFF THE COAST WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. ...HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE FAVORABLE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ULTIMATELY SPREADING SEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL UNDER WAY WITH STRONGEST CONVECTION NOW OBSERVED OVER ERN PORTIONS OF CO...WHILE POTENTIALLY MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY IS SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SWRN MT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM GGW INDICATES FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION PROFILE FOR SUSTAINED ORGANIZED TSTMS...ALTHOUGH SOMEWHAT MARGINAL INSTABILITY...ROUGHLY 1000J/KG. AS LLJ INCREASES OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT IT APPEARS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER CENTRAL MT BEFORE SPREADING INTO ERN MT AFTER MIDNIGHT. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...NWRN U.S... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION TO SPREAD NEWD ACROSS THE ID PANHANDLE INTO WRN MT LATER THIS EVENING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST HIGH BASED MULTI-CELL OR PERHAPS SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ARE THE MAIN THREATS. ..DARROW.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 05:52:15 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 00:52:15 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408050551.i755pK903882@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 050549 SWODY1 SPC AC 050548 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1248 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE OLF 40 N REJ 45 NE CDR 35 WSW CDR 15 W DGW 60 SW GCC 40 SSW BIL 15 N BZN 30 SW 3DU 25 WSW S06 60 ENE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRE FLO 35 W SOP 25 S DAN 60 SW RIC 25 NNE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 45 ENE JMS 35 WNW ATY 35 SSW MHE 40 NNE LBF 40 ENE GLD 35 SSE LBL 35 SW LTS 50 NNW DAL 35 W TXK 40 WSW PBF 25 SSW JBR 30 SSE CGI 35 SW OWB 10 SSE LEX 35 ENE SSU 30 SSE BWI 20 NE ACY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW YUM 25 N IGM 15 E U24 30 SE MLD 25 WSW IDA 25 NNW SUN 65 ESE BNO 40 SE LMT 35 ESE CEC 45 WNW MFR 20 ENE OLM 20 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE SERN U.S.... ...NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST ERN PACIFIC SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ONSHORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN LIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES FLATTENING THE UPPER RIDGE DOWNSTREAM OVER MT. THIS FEATURE WILL PROVE RESPONSIBLE IN MAINTAINING MOIST SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LLJ ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT THROUGH THE PERIOD. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID MID DAY THERMALS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN PRIOR TO MAIN ZONE OF ASCENT THAT SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF WRN INTO CENTRAL MT BY PEAK HEATING. DEEP CONVECTION WILL BUILD OVER THE MOUNTAINS RATHER EARLY THEN MOVE EWD BECOMING INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED ACROSS THE PLAINS WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE. WITH TIME STORM MERGERS AND FORCING SHOULD RESULT IN BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF MT TOWARD WRN ND LATE IN THE PERIOD. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE LEE TROUGH FROM SERN MT INTO SERN WY. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AND STRONGLY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL PROCESSES. ...CAROLINAS... SFC FRONT IS CURRENTLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AS SFC RIDGE BUILDS SEWD IN THE WAKE OF DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. SRN EXTENT OF UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER FLOW ALOFT WILL SPREAD INTO THE CAROLINAS AS WIND SHIFT/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE MOVES INTO THIS REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL AID DESTABILIZATION RESULTING IN SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 3000-4000 J/KG. IT APPEARS FRONTAL ZONE WILL FOCUS STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG IT AS IT SURGES SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND OFFSHORE BY 06Z. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW/LEVIT.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 12:46:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 07:46:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408051245.i75Cjh931562@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051243 SWODY1 SPC AC 051242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 15 W Y22 30 NE CDR 10 N BFF 35 SE DGW 55 WSW GCC 50 SE LVM 40 SW 27U 45 SSE S80 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 45 ESE CLT 15 SE GSO 55 E DAN 20 WNW ORF 30 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 45 ENE JMS 35 WNW ATY 35 SSW MHE 30 NNE EAR 40 ENE HLC 30 N GAG 35 SW LTS 30 NNE MWL 40 ESE PRX 10 ESE HOT 40 SW JBR 40 SSW PAH 30 NNW HOP 35 SW LEX 25 SW MGW 35 NNW BWI 15 NE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 20 NNW BLH 50 N IGM 25 ESE CDC 30 SSE MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 35 N 4LW 70 SW RDM 15 WNW DLS 15 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SERN VA SWD ACROSS ERN NC AND NERN SC... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG/E OF CASCADE RANGE/ MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COASTS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE 80-90KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ FROM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF EVOLVING JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL ID INTO WRN MT. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PROMOTE COLD POOL GENERATION. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING MCS WILL EXIST TONIGHT WITH CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS OR STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN WY INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/ DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...CAROLINAS... CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ALONG COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH /OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL OH VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL REGION IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. AS REMNANTS OF OH/TN VALLEY CONVECTION AND RELATED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL OR SURFACE FRONT. MODESTLY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD/BRIGHT.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 13:21:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 08:21:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408051320.i75DKv913008@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051319 SWODY1 SPC AC 051242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN 15 W Y22 30 NE CDR 10 N BFF 35 SE DGW 55 WSW GCC 50 SE LVM 40 SW 27U 45 SSE S80 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW CRE 45 ESE CLT 15 SE GSO 55 E DAN 20 WNW ORF 30 E ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 45 ENE JMS 35 WNW ATY 35 SSW MHE 30 NNE EAR 40 ENE HLC 30 N GAG 35 SW LTS 30 NNE MWL 40 ESE PRX 10 ESE HOT 40 SW JBR 40 SSW PAH 30 NNW HOP 35 SW LEX 25 SW MGW 35 NNW BWI 15 NE NEL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM YUM 20 NNW BLH 50 N IGM 25 ESE CDC 30 SSE MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 35 N 4LW 70 SW RDM 15 WNW DLS 15 NNW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FAR SERN VA SWD ACROSS ERN NC AND NERN SC... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS... MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH /AS EVIDENCED BY LIGHTNING ACTIVITY ALONG/E OF CASCADE RANGE/ MOVING ONTO THE WA/ORE COASTS. THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NEWD TODAY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WHILE 80-90KT UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /I.E. DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/ FROM NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EWD INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY LATER TODAY WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS. INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF APPROACHING TROUGH AND IN LEFT EXIT REGION OF EVOLVING JET STREAK SHOULD PROMOTE INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY BY AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NRN/CNTRL ID INTO WRN MT. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 40-50KTS WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY-LAYER AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OBSERVED IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOULD EFFECTIVELY PROMOTE COLD POOL GENERATION. THUS...POTENTIAL FOR A FAST-MOVING MCS WILL EXIST TONIGHT WITH CORRIDORS OF DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE EWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS OR STORM CLUSTERS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP SWD ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN OR LEE TROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM ERN WY INTO THE CO FRONT RANGE. IMMEDIATE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE /MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG/ WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR /AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL/ DECREASING WITH SWD EXTENT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. ...CAROLINAS... CLUSTERS OF STORMS HAVE PERSISTED OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH AND TN VALLEYS ALONG COLD FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH /OBSERVED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL OH VALLEY. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS THE CAROLINA PIEDMONT AND COASTAL REGION IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. THOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...THIS MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LARGELY CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG. AS REMNANTS OF OH/TN VALLEY CONVECTION AND RELATED FORCING AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER THIS DESTABILIZING AIRMASS...EXPECT INTENSIFICATION OF ONGOING ACTIVITY...AS WELL AS NEW DEVELOPMENT ALONG LEADING EDGE OF COLD POOL OR SURFACE FRONT. MODESTLY STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORM CLUSTERS OR LINE SEGMENTS. THOUGH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..MEAD/BRIGHT.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 16:37:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 11:37:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408051636.i75Gat903742@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051633 SWODY1 SPC AC 051631 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1131 AM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE ISN Y22 40 ENE CDR BFF DGW SHR 45 SE LVM 27U S80 60 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 35 E AHN 30 WNW AND AVL RIC WAL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW IPL 40 NE TRM 50 N IGM 15 E CDC 25 S MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 25 NW 4LW 70 SW RDM 25 NW DLS 35 SSE SEA 15 S UIL ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20 ESE HON 25 N HLC 25 NW GAG 20 E CDS 20 NW FTW 40 ESE PRX 10 ESE HOT 40 SSW PAH 20 WNW EKN 15 SSE NEL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CAROLINAS... UPPER TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONIC MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDING FROM KY/TN...ACROSS NORTHERN GA...INTO THE CAROLINAS. AT THE SURFACE...EFFECTIVE FRONT LIES FROM SOUTHEAST VA INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NC/NORTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA. AIRMASS AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 70S AND SBCAPE VALUES OVER 3000 J/KG. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO INTENSIFY OVER PARTS OF VA/NC/SC BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER EASTERN TN APPROACHES. WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN DISORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...HIGH CAPE VALUES AND DRY AIR ALOFT SUGGEST A RISK OF WET DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEABREEZE OVER EASTERN NC/SC...AND WESTWARD INTO GA/AL/MS. WEAKER FLOW ALOFT IN THESE REGIONS SUGGEST A MORE ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN CO SOUTHWARD INTO NM...WITH WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE MAINTAINING RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE FOOTHILLS AND FRONT RANGE REGIONS OF CO/NM...WHERE SCATTERED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. RELATIVELY HIGH CAPE VALUES SUGGEST A RISK OF ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. ...NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH PARENT TROUGH OFF THE CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST THROUGH 06/12Z. LEAD WAVE ASSOCIATED WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COLUMBIA BASIN WILL PIVOT NEWD TOWARD NRN ID/NWRN MT THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SEVERE ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE OUT OF ONGOING STORMS WITH CONTINUED HEATING ACROSS NRN ID/NWRN MT. MEANWHILE...75KT JET ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE NEWD...WITH STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ACROSS SWRN MT BY AFTERNOON IN LEFT FRONT QUADRANT COINCIDENT WITH PEAK DAYTIME HEATING. CONVECTIVE STORMS LIKELY FORMING ACROSS SWRN MT WILL TRACK ENEWD AROUND 30KT IN MODERATELY STRONG SWLY FLOW. CONVECTIVE INTENSITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE ACROSS W-CENTRAL/CENTRAL MT AS STORMS ENCOUNTER MID-UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY /MUCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG/. SFC-6KM SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...ALTHOUGH STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT TRAVERSING WRN MT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES WITH EMBEDDED BOW ECHOES AND DAMAGING WINDS...WITH CONVECTIVE GUSTS POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 65KT OVER LOCALIZED AREAS. VERY STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES AROUND 9C/KM AND LOW WBZ HEIGHTS ALSO SUGGEST THREAT OF LARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES. SEPARATE INITIATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE BIG HORNS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS IN NRN/ERN WY. STRONG AGEOSTROPHIC FORCING WILL MAINTAIN LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION AS PRESSURES FALL ACROSS CENTRAL MT THROUGH 06/06Z. STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS /60-70KT/ AND AMPLE MOISTURE /UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS/ MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BEGINNING AROUND MID-AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK EWD OFF THE MTNS...PERHAPS INTO WRN SD AND THE NEB PANHANDLE BY LATE EVENING. ..HART/BANACOS.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 5 19:29:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 14:29:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408051928.i75JSM921852@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 051925 SWODY1 SPC AC 051924 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 20 W Y22 10 SE CDR 35 W SNY 15 W CYS 25 NW DGW SHR 45 ENE WEY 35 SE 27U 30 ENE S80 65 NW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CRE 45 ENE MCN 20 ENE AHN 20 W RWI 25 SSE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 45 SE EED 50 N IGM 50 WNW MLF 50 SW MLD 20 WSW PIH 20 SSE SUN 65 ESE BNO 25 NW 4LW 70 SW RDM 25 NW DLS 35 SSE SEA 15 S UIL ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20 ESE HON 25 N HLC 25 NW GAG 20 E CDS 20 NW FTW 40 E PRX 25 WSW MKL 10 SSW 5I3 25 NE ACY. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN HIGH PLAINS... ...DEEP SOUTH-SERN STATES... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE SRN APPALACHIAN CREST...MOVING EWD AT AROUND 35 KTS. LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF TSTMS. TSTMS HAVE GRADUALLY BEEN STRENGTHENING ALONG LEE-TROUGH OVER THE NC PIEDMONT AND ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER NERN GA. TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD TOWARD THE SC/NC COAST THROUGH THE EVENING. HOT/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MICROBURSTS. IN ADDITION...VWPS FROM GREER AND RALEIGH SHOW 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A FEW TSTMS MAY BRIEFLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. MORE LIKELY SEVERE SCENARIO WILL BE FOR LINE SEGMENTS TO BECOME ALIGNED WITH WNWLY MEAN FLOW RESULTING IN SMALL SCALE BOWS GIVING WIND DAMAGE. SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH...TSTMS HAVE BEEN FORMING VCNTY E-W ORIENTED COLD FRONT/OUTFLOWS FROM NRN AL INTO CNTRL MS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN FARTHER NORTHEAST. GIVEN THAT STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS/SUPPORT PASSES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS...MOST...IF NOT ALL OF THE TSTMS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. GUSTY WINDS COULD STILL OCCUR...THOUGH....WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...NRN ROCKIES... SEVERE THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR CLEARLY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL JETLET TRANSLATING NEWD INTO SRN ID ATTM. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES NEWD...STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE/PVA WILL OVERSPREAD WRN/CNTRL MT. CBS HAVE ALREADY FORMED IN SWRN MT AND WILL LIKELY GROW AS THE ENHANCED LARGE SCALE SUPPORT ARRIVES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. 18Z SOUNDING FROM GREAT FALLS WAS CAPPED AND SUGGESTS INITIAL ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING FOR A SURFACE PARCEL OF 80/54 WEAKENS THE CINH TO 60 J/KG AND GIVEN INCREASED FORCING IT IS CONCEIVABLE TSTMS WILL ROOT INTO THE UNSTABLE VALLEYS WHERE MLCAPES OF 1800 J/KG WILL EXIST. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40-45 KTS WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR SUPERCELLS. EVOLUTION INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED BOWS WILL BE LIKELY THIS EVENING AS THE STRONGER FORCING ARRIVES. SEVERE WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 KTS AND HAIL TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE ACTIVITY MOVES ENEWD INTO CNTRL MT LATER IN THE EVENING. ...NRN HIGH/CNTRL PLAINS... UPSTREAM HEIGHT FALLS ARE MAINTAINING ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST INSOLATION HAS OCCURRED NW OF CIRRUS CLOUD CANOPY OVER SERN WY. CBS HAVE INITIATED OVER THE WRN WY MOUNTAINS AND OVER THE BIG HORNS AND SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL MAY OCCUR SWD THROUGH CO...GIVEN MORE INTENSE HEATING AND STRONGEST HIGH LEVEL FLOW EXISTING ACROSS WY/MT...HIGHER PROBABILITIES OF LONGER-LIVED CELLS PRODUCING SEVERE WINDS/HAIL WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF ERN WY INTO SERN MT. THESE TSTMS MAY MOVE INTO ADJACENT WRN SD/NEB LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE DIMINISHED. ..RACY.. 08/05/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 00:54:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 05 Aug 2004 19:54:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408060053.i760rW917822@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060051 SWODY1 SPC AC 060049 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 PM CDT THU AUG 05 2004 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE ISN 20 W Y22 30 NNE RAP 50 NW CDR 35 NW DGW 45 SSE SHR 50 ENE COD 45 SSE LVM 30 SW BZN 25 E 3DU 35 NE CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE YUM 50 N IGM 50 WNW MLF 15 N ENV 25 NW TWF 55 S MSO 45 S S06 25 SW LWS 45 E DLS 55 NNW DLS 55 ENE BLI ...CONT... 75 NE DVL 20 ESE HON 25 N HLC 25 NW GAG 30 ESE CDS 45 W MWL 10 SW TYR 55 E MLU 25 NNE 0A8 20 NW AHN 20 S RDU 25 SE ECG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF MT AND NERN WY... ...MT/NERN WY... EARLY EVENING SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS APPROACHING CNTRL MT. 00Z SOUNDING FROM TFX SUPPORTS THIS WITH A STRONG BACKING WIND PROFILE AT MID LEVELS...WHILE GGW STILL DISPLAYS STRONG WARM ADVECTION THROUGH 700MB. DOWNSTREAM...WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF ERN MT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IT APPEARS ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH HAS BEEN SLOW TO ORGANIZE...WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOMEWHAT HIGHER MOISTURE. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE OVER CENTRAL/NERN MT BEFORE SPREADING INTO WRN ND LATE TONIGHT. OTHER MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO NERN WY WHERE FAVORABLE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED POTENTIALLY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ..DARROW.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 05:39:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 00:39:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408060539.i765d7908630@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 060536 SWODY1 SPC AC 060535 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1235 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NNE ISN 30 N DIK 40 NE RAP 35 WSW RAP 15 SSE GCC 45 W SHR 20 SE BZN 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE CZZ 50 NNE TRM 35 SE LAS 10 E SGU 15 SE MLF 40 W OGD 20 N PIH 50 WSW MQM 65 SW 27U 50 NW BOI 50 NNE 4LW 45 NNE MFR 10 WSW PDX 25 NNE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WSW INL 15 WSW STC 25 S SPW 30 NW TOP 40 NNE OKC 40 E SPS 25 N ACT 20 NNE BPT 30 W GPT 20 N PNS 15 NNW MAI 40 NE MGR 35 N SAV 25 NNW CRE 20 ENE GSB 20 SW ORF 20 NNE ORF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN PLAINS... ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS ERN MT APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE DAKOTAS BY 18Z. THIS FEATURE SHOULD SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS SIGNIFICANT RIDGING BEFORE TURING SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE IT APPEARS WEAK RIDGING OVER ERN MT WILL TEMPORARILY SUPPRESS CONVECTION...BUT AID BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING ACROSS THE PLAINS. IN SPITE OF WEAK SUBSIDENCE...IT APPEARS NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES AND FORCING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD AID AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. OF MORE CONCERN IS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS WA/ORE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND APPROACH WRN MT AROUND 00Z. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND MASS FIELDS SUGGEST THIS UPSTREAM FEATURE WILL AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WITH EWD MOVEMENT/ORGANIZATION POSSIBLE INTO WRN MT DURING THE EVENING HOURS. GIVEN THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND MOIST ELY BOUNDARY LAYER COMPONENT ACROSS MT...IT APPEARS THIS ACTIVITY MAY VERY WELL PROPAGATE ACROSS MUCH OF WRN/CNTRL MT BY 12Z. ALTHOUGH 00Z MODELS DO NOT DEPICT SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...VERY COOL MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH...H5 TEMPS FROM MINUS 14-18 WILL SPREAD ACROSS SFC DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 40S-LOWER 50S...YIELDING SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR ROBUST CONVECTION. LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY EARLY ACTIVITY WHILE DAMAGING WINDS COULD EVOLVE OVER THE PLAINS WITH ANY ORGANIZED MCS-TYPE EPISODE DURING THE NIGHT. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OR PERHAPS LARGE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..DARROW.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 12:40:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 07:40:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408061239.i76Cdw908527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061237 SWODY1 SPC AC 061235 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0735 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 061300Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW MOT 50 W DVL 60 NNE ABR 55 ENE PIR 20 WNW PHP 30 NW RAP 20 NNE GCC 40 WNW SHR 20 SE BZN 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI ...CONT... 30 NW ROC 45 NE BFD 25 E LBE 30 ESE MFD 20 ENE TOL 55 SE OSC ...CONT... 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 45 ESE FOD 50 W LWD 40 NNW TOP 25 NE PNC 40 E SPS 55 E CLL 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 20 NNE DLN 70 E BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF MID LEVEL IMPULSES EMANATING FROM A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE ERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND DAMPEN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THIS PERIOD. A LEAD IMPULSE...NOW MOVING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...WILL SPREAD EWD/SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ACCELERATE EWD ACROSS WA/ORE LATER TODAY AND BE LOCATED OVER MT BY SATURDAY. ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS AND COOL AIR WILL COVER THE NORTHEAST AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THIS REGION. THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL DRIFT SWD INTO FL TODAY. THE WRN EXTENSION OF THIS FRONT HAS INTERMINGLED AND MERGED WITH THE LEE-TROUGH FROM WEST TX NWD ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS BENEATH BROAD RIDGING ALOFT. ...DAKOTAS... SCATTERED STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF ND AS ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND LLJ ACT ON NARROW PLUME OF MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE REGION. CURRENT CONVECTION IS MOST LIKELY ROOTED WELL ABOVE CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER PER LATEST RUC SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...VERY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR COULD RESULT IN A FEW HAIL REPORTS. FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY REMOVED FROM LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION EVENTUALLY SPREADING EWD ATOP RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MN. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND STRONG HEATING IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING STORMS MAY PLAY A ROLE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED TSTMS LATER TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD. FCST SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ACROSS THE REGION SUGGEST THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH A THREAT OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND WIND IF THE CAP CAN BE OVERCOME. ...ID/MT/NERN WY... NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO IMPACT THE NRN ROCKIES APPEARS TO BE LIFTING ENEWD ACROSS NRN CA AND NWRN NV EARLY TODAY. DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL COMBINE WITH MODEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF MLCAPE OF 300-1300 J/KG FROM NRN ID ESEWD TO THE MT/WY BORDER. HIGHER INSTABILITY IS FCST FROM NERN WY INTO ERN MT. STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AIDED BY DIFFLUENT MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW/DPVA AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN SPREAD EAST INTO GREATER INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR. SEVERAL LINES OR CLUSTERS OF STORMS...AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...MAY EVOLVE FROM LATE AFTERNOON MOUNTAIN CONVECTION AND POSE A HAIL AND WIND HAZARD WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH A POSSIBLE MCS SPREADING EAST INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY. ...TX/HIGH PLAINS... LEE TROUGH/RESIDUAL FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR MORE VIGOROUS TSTMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. BACKGROUND SUBSIDENCE AND MARGINAL LAPSE RATES AND SHEAR SUGGEST ONLY AN ISOLD STRONG WIND GUST OR HAIL REPORT MAY OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...FL... COLD FRONTAL PENETRATION INTO FL IS UNUSUAL FOR AUGUST. DESPITE LIMITED UPPER SUPPORT...A FEW STRONG TSTMS AND ISOLD SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT AS CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACT ON A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE PENINSULA. ..CARBIN/BRIGHT.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 16:45:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 11:45:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408061644.i76Gi8923426@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 061642 SWODY1 SPC AC 061640 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 061630Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NW MOT 50 W DVL 60 SSW JMS 55 ENE PIR 30 NW MHN 40 NW IML 20 W SNY 15 WNW SHR 20 SE BZN 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 35 S 27U 75 E BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 35 E FRM 35 SSW SPW 20 NE CNK 40 S PNC 25 NNW ACT 50 ENE CLL 20 W 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NRN ROCKIES INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN ROCKIES INTO NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SERIES OF THREE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS ACROSS THE NWRN STATES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD AND FLATTEN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE MOVING ACROSS ERN MT/WRN ND WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ND TOWARD NRN MN...WITH ASSOCIATED ELEVATED CONVECTION NOW OVER ERN ND CONTINUING INTO PROGRESSIVELY LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS. NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING NEWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO WRN MT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. STRONGER UPSTREAM SYSTEM IS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NW COAST AND IS FORECAST TO ROTATE INLAND ACROSS WA AND NRN ID TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES UNTIL TONIGHT. A LEE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED FROM SERN MT ACROSS ERN WY INTO ERN CO. AIR MASS FROM NRN ID ACROSS MT HAS EXHIBITED SOME DRYING SINCE YESTERDAY IN THE WAKE OF PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS. HOWEVER... STRONG HEATING AND DYNAMIC FORCING IN ADVANCE OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN SHORT WAVE TROUGH COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT RESIDUAL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE THREAT FOR DOWNBURSTS WITH STRONGER CELLS...ALONG WITH ISOLATED HAIL. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER ERN WA INTO NRN ID/NWRN MT AS THE PACIFIC NW SYSTEM MOVES EWD. FARTHER EAST...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH FROM SERN MT INTO ERN WY/WRN DAKOTAS/WRN NEB MAY FOCUS THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AIR MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND STRONG DIURNAL HEATING WILL WEAKEN CAP AND PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STORMS. VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AS WEST/NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-35 KT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER CELLS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ...FL PENINSULA... COLD FRONT IS MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO NRN FL WITH VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS PRESENT SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. DEEP WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION HAS RESULTED IN SOME DRYING ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH WILL ENHANCE THREAT FOR ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS. ...AZ... VERY MOIST AIR MASS IS PRESENT IN PHX AND TUS SOUNDINGS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GREATER THAN 1.5 INCHES. A BAND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AZ...AND THIS WILL INITIALLY INHIBIT ONSET OF STRONG HEATING TODAY. THIS CLOUD EDGE MAY ESTABLISH A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY WHERE CONVECTION WILL REDEVELOP LATER TODAY FROM SOUTH CENTRAL INTO EAST CENTRAL AZ. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DRY SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WET MICROBURSTS ALONG POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL HAIL WITH STRONGER CELLS. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 20:14:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 15:14:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408062014.i76KE7919041@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062008 SWODY1 SPC AC 062006 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0306 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 062000Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 50 W DVL 60 WNW JMS 40 NE MBG 30 NE PIR 35 W VTN 30 NW MHN 40 NW IML 20 W SNY 20 NNW WRL 15 NNE WEY 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 35 E FRM 35 SSW SPW 20 NE CNK 40 S PNC 25 NNW ACT 50 ENE CLL 20 W 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI ...CONT... 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 35 S 27U 75 E BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES... ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE OBS AND 18Z GREAT FALLS SOUNDING SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S. AS A RESULT...AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN ID RECENTLY. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT. CBS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN MT/ID MOUNTAINS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED GIVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. FARTHER EAST...TSTMS DEVELOPING ON THE WY MOUNTAINS AND BLACK HILLS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF ERN WY...SCNTRL/SERN MT...WRN NEB PNHDL AND WRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS AROUND 35 KTS AND A SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACROSS NERN MT AND WRN ND...SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING THE DIURNAL WIND FIELDS...MAINTAINING A VEERED WLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE DOMINATING THE AREA ATTM. TSTMS MAY APPROACH FROM SCNTRL/SERN MT LATER TONIGHT...AND COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL ND/NWRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. GIVEN A STORM...LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK. ...NRN PLAINS/RED RVR VLY AREA... ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN ND AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS RESIDE IN A RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPES. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED. NONETHELESS...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...DESERT SW... MOST VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ON NRN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS NRN/NWRN AZ. 18Z FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT A FEW LONGER LIVED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 50-55 KT HIGH LEVEL FLOW. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. A LATER START TO THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM CONSIDERABLY AND 18Z TUCSON SOUNDING USING A 91/61 PARCEL EXHIBITED SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILES...ISOLD MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY. ...W TX... PERSISTENT MOIST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/TROUGH ALONG THE NM/TX BORDER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS THROUGH THE EVENING. MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY MAY OFFSET WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW TO SUPPORT ISOLD SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORM MOTION WILL FAVOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY AND ISOLD TORNADOES MAY OCCUR. MORE INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1902. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS FL. GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 6 21:34:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 16:34:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408062133.i76LXo918977@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 062123 SWODY1 SPC AC 062121 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0421 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 062130Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NE MOT 50 W DVL 60 WNW JMS 40 NE MBG 30 NE PIR 35 W VTN 30 NW MHN 40 NW IML 20 W SNY 20 NNW WRL 15 NNE WEY 40 NNE 27U 20 SSW S80 20 WNW LWS 10 SSE GEG 35 NE 63S. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE HOB 20 NE CVS 15 W DHT 60 NNE AMA 45 SE AMA 45 SE LBB 55 E HOB 50 ENE HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE YUM 15 SSE EED 40 SW SGU 40 NW CDC 35 ENE U24 20 WNW IDA 35 S 27U 75 E BKE 60 N BNO 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 45 NW ELO 40 ESE BRD 35 E FRM 35 SSW SPW 20 NE CNK 40 S PNC 25 NNW ACT 50 ENE CLL 20 W 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND NRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF W TX... AMENDED TO ADD SLGT RISK FOR PARTS OF TX PNHDL/W TX ...PARTS OF W TX... STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY ORIENTED N-S ACROSS W TX. SBCAPES TO 4000 J/KG AND ENHANCED DEEP LAYER SHEAR OWING TO STRONGLY VEERING WIND PROFILES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS...THOUGH A BRIEF ISOLD SPIN-UP WILL BE POSSIBLE. ***REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED FROM 2000 UTC*** ...NRN ROCKIES/NRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE OBS AND 18Z GREAT FALLS SOUNDING SHOW THAT BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE DRIER THAN RECENT DAYS ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AREA WITH DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S. AS A RESULT...AIR MASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS ON THURSDAY WITH PRIMARY INSTABILITY AXIS SITUATED FROM SERN MT/NERN WY INTO WRN SD. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HAS INDICATED A WEAKENING OF THE MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD THROUGH WRN ID RECENTLY. THIS IMPULSE WILL MOVE NEWD INTO CNTRL MT/NRN WY THROUGH TONIGHT. CBS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SWRN MT/ID MOUNTAINS AND A FEW TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE NEWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MT. GIVEN THE HIGH SHEAR/LOW INSTABILITY ENVIRONMENT...THESE TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE HIGH BASED GIVING SEVERE WIND GUSTS. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS AS WELL AND LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR. FARTHER EAST...TSTMS DEVELOPING ON THE WY MOUNTAINS AND BLACK HILLS WILL LIKELY GROW UPSCALE AND MOVE INTO THE LOWER TERRAIN OF ERN WY...SCNTRL/SERN MT...WRN NEB PNHDL AND WRN SD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGEST THAT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS AROUND 35 KTS AND A SUPERCELL OR TWO IS POSSIBLE GIVEN AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE. LARGE HAIL AND SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ACROSS NERN MT AND WRN ND...SLGT RISK/PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. IMPULSE NOW MOVING INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS APPEARS TO BE INFLUENCING THE DIURNAL WIND FIELDS...MAINTAINING A VEERED WLY FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. MOREOVER...SUBSIDENCE APPEARS TO BE DOMINATING THE AREA ATTM. TSTMS MAY APPROACH FROM SCNTRL/SERN MT LATER TONIGHT...AND COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE-TROUGH ACROSS CNTRL ND/NWRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DOWNSTREAM IMPULSE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. GIVEN A STORM...LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS MAY OCCUR. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A CONDITIONAL SLGT RISK. ...NRN PLAINS/RED RVR VLY AREA... ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE/DEVELOP ACROSS THE ERN ND AREA IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES SUGGEST THAT PARCELS FEEDING THE TSTMS RESIDE IN A RESERVOIR OF 1500 J/KG MUCAPES. EFFECTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WAS IN THE 25-30 KT RANGE AND SUGGEST THE STORMS WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LONG-LIVED. NONETHELESS...ISOLD MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ...DESERT SW... MOST VIGOROUS TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS BEEN ON NRN PERIPHERY OF RESIDUAL CLOUD CANOPY ACROSS NRN/NWRN AZ. 18Z FLAGSTAFF SOUNDING SUGGESTS THAT A FEW LONGER LIVED TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE 50-55 KT HIGH LEVEL FLOW. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. A LATER START TO THE TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS OCCURRING ACROSS SERN AZ AND SWRN NM. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO WARM CONSIDERABLY AND 18Z TUCSON SOUNDING USING A 91/61 PARCEL EXHIBITED SBCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG AND AROUND 1.5 INCHES OF PWAT. THE STEERING FLOW IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. BUT...GIVEN INVERTED-V LOW LEVEL PROFILES...ISOLD MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... COLD FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS CONTINUE TO SETTLE SWD ACROSS FL. GIVEN SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT...ISOLD TSTMS MAY PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..RACY.. 08/06/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 00:44:51 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 06 Aug 2004 19:44:51 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408070043.i770hw913527@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070041 SWODY1 SPC AC 070039 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0739 PM CDT FRI AUG 06 2004 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE COD 35 SE LVM 25 SSW 3HT 25 SSE LWT 75 NNE BIL 45 WSW MLS 55 NNE SHR 20 NW SHR 25 NNE COD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N MAF 35 NE HOB 40 SSE CVS 35 E TCC 40 WNW AMA 10 E AMA 25 E PVW 45 SSE LBB 55 N MAF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE RRT 40 WSW AXN 20 WNW BKX 25 SW ANW 30 WNW MHN 40 E CDR 20 SSW PHP 50 N ABR 75 NE DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE YUM 25 NNE EED 30 W CDC 45 E DPG 25 NNE MLD 45 SW MQM 50 SW 27U 65 WSW BKE 45 NNW RDM 35 S AST ...CONT... 20 NNE ELO 35 ESE MKT 50 SW FOD 25 WNW MHK 15 SE OKC 20 SE FTW 50 ENE CLL 15 WNW 7R4 30 NW BVE ...CONT... 25 WNW PFN 30 NNE SSI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF W TX... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SCNTRL MT... ...DAKOTAS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. AS A WARM FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS SERN ND AND ERN SD...INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION...A RELATIVELY STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET IS ALSO PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. AS A RESULT...LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE STRONGLY VEERED AND THIS IS HELPING TO PRODUCE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WITH THE STRONGEST MULTICELL STORMS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM AND 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES AROUND 35 KT SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE DUE TO WEAKENING INSTABILITY...A CONVECTIVE LINE SHOULD ORGANIZE AS IT MOVES INTO WRN MN DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. ...W TX... AN UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS PRESENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IS RESULTING IN A LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVING SEWD ON THE CAPROCK. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE CONVECTION NEAR THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WITH A SMALL 700 MB JET PUNCHING INTO NW TX. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE CREATING STRONG LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WHICH IS ENHANCING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS W TX. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM ERN NM TO CNTRL TX. DECREASING INSTABILITY THIS EVENING...SHOULD ALLOW THE SEVERE THREAT TO DIMINISH. ...SCNTRL MT... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS SE MT. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH STRONG LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN NE WY WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR (0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40 KT) IN PLACE. THIS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A SUPERCELL THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 8.5 TO 9.0 C/KM AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 35 TO 40 DEGREES WILL FAVOR AN ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 06:03:22 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 01:03:22 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408070602.i7762U907936@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 070559 SWODY1 SPC AC 070558 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 W RRT 50 S FAR 35 NNW YKN 50 NE BUB 20 SW BBW 25 E SNY 35 NNW BFF 30 E 4BQ 65 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E MQT 20 N AUW 40 E DSM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 10 N SPS 20 ENE SEP 20 SW GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 70 NW GBN IGM 50 S SGU 30 NNE U17 30 NE CNY 35 NNW CAG 15 NNW RWL 50 NW CPR 20 SW SHR 50 SE BIL 20 WSW 3HT 15 WSW HLN 40 S MSO 15 S S06 60 ENE 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NEB... ...NRN PLAINS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-TROUGH ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS TODAY. AS THE TROUGH INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LIKELY. THE BEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE ACROSS FAR ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. IN ADDITION...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO ABOUT 40 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH WILL RESULT IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS. UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN A HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL. STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE GRADUALLY SPREADING EWD INTO THE CNTRL DAKOTAS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO DECREASING INSTABILITY. FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONGER THAN AREAS FARTHER WEST. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE AHEAD OF THE UPPER-TROUGH WILL RESULT IN WEAK LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL BUT IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE...A BRIEF HAIL OR WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY EXIST NEAR PEAK HEATING. ...NEB/KS... FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS NEB AND KS...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY ACROSS NCNTRL NEB. HOWEVER...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP STORM COVERAGE ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE STRONGLY VEERED AND THIS MAY CREATE ENOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT MAINLY NEAR THE CENTER OF STRONGEST INSTABILITY IN NEB. ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE MAY OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS IF STORMS CAN INITIATE ALONG THE SFC TROUGH IN WCNTRL NEB/NW KS. THE CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL ASCENT AND A STRONG CAP IN PLACE. ..BROYLES.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 12:31:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 07:31:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408071230.i77CUH916795@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071228 SWODY1 SPC AC 071226 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0726 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 071300Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL 10 SW TVF 20 ENE AXN 40 ESE BKX 35 N BUB 20 NW LBF 20 SE SNY 50 ESE CYS 40 SW BFF 45 SE 81V 30 E 4BQ 25 NNW MLS 65 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SW GBN 70 NW GBN IGM 50 S SGU 30 NNE U17 45 NW GJT 30 SW CPR 45 SSE SHR 45 NE COD 40 E LVM 15 WSW HLN 40 S MSO 15 S S06 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 40 E MQT 35 N MSN 40 E DSM 10 NE FLV 40 SSW ICT 40 SW END 25 SE FSI 35 NE ACT 25 WSW GLS ...CONT... 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER THE CONUS WILL BEGIN A TRANSITION TO A WRN RIDGE/CNTRL U.S. TROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS EAST FROM THE NRN ROCKIES TO THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS...AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT WWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/SRN QUEBEC WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NEWD UP THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE PERIOD. NRN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY STRENGTHENING WLY MID LEVEL FLOW SPREADING FROM MT/WY EARLY IN THE PERIOD...TO THE DAKOTAS AND NRN NEB BY LATER TONIGHT. MODERATE PACIFIC COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SEWD FROM MT TO THE WRN DAKOTAS/ERN WY BY EVENING AND BE SITUATED FROM NWRN MN TO NERN CO BY EARLY SUNDAY. ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... WV LOOP INDICATED A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MOVING OVER WRN MT EARLY TODAY. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS IMPULSE...PERSISTENT SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF LARGE MIDWEST ANTICYCLONE HAS TRANSPORTED MOISTURE NWD ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES WITH AN AXIS OF LOWER 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS EXTENDING FROM TX TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING RATIOS...STRONG HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND DRYLINE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CONVECTIVE INHIBITION ACROSS ERN MT AND THE WRN DAKOTAS BY AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN TSTM INITIATION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-35KT WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS LIKELY TO PRODUCE HAIL. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STORM ORGANIZATION SHOULD INCREASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS STRONGER FORCING AND WIND FIELDS SPREAD EAST WITH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND FRONT. LINEAR ORGANIZATION NEAR THE FRONT...AND PRESENCE OF DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL SPREADING EAST ACROSS PARTS OF ND/SD THROUGH AT LEAST THE LATE EVENING. STRONGER CAP AND LESS FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE FORCING ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE SHORT WAVE CROSSING MT/ND SHOULD RESULT IN MORE ISOLD TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NEB PNHDL AND ERN WY. NONETHELESS...A COUPLE OF HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM STORMS INITIATING NEAR DRYLINE/LEE TROUGH FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. ...SRN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... FAVORABLE MOISTURE...WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW...AND HEATING BENEATH WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER SCALE RIDGE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF MOUNTAIN...FRONT RANGE...AND HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION FROM CO TO FAR WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT THE BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. A FEW OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND/OR STRONG WINDS BUT OVERALL HAZARD APPEARS TOO RANDOM/DISORGANIZED TO SUPPORT HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 16:41:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 11:41:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408071641.i77Gf3930760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071639 SWODY1 SPC AC 071637 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1137 AM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 071630Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL GFK 55 W AXN BKX 35 N BUB 20 NW LBF 20 SE SNY 50 ESE CYS 40 SW BFF 45 SE 81V 30 E 4BQ 25 NNW MLS 65 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SSW GBN 20 NNE GBN 40 SE IGM 60 WNW GCN 30 NNE U17 55 SE RKS 45 ESE DGW 15 NW 81V 45 SSW MLS 80 E LWT 20 SE GTF 50 NE FCA ...CONT... 85 E ELO 35 NW RHI 40 S LSE 25 NNW FOD 45 S EAR 20 SW END 35 S SPS 20 WNW AUS 25 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 25 WSW MSV 40 W ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS/VORTICITY MAXIMA ARE MOVING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. WEAKER LEAD SYSTEM FROM EXTREME ERN MT SSWWD INTO ERN WY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD AND WEAKEN IN ADVANCE OF PRIMARY VORTICITY MAX MOVING ACROSS NWRN MT. THIS NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE TO ERN MT BY 00Z AND INTO WRN ND TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT OVER ERN MT WILL MOVE EWD INTO WRN ND/NWRN SD LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...REACHING THE ERN DAKOTAS AND CENTRAL NEB BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE FOCUS FOR STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES IN PLACE ABOVE THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF SD/ERN MT INTO SRN ND INDICATING STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR OVER THESE AREAS. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEVELOPMENT OF WELL-MIXED DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THIS AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL MIXING RATIOS OF 10-12 G/KG COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. 12Z ETA/RUC AND 09Z SREF GUIDANCE ALL PROVIDE CONSISTENT GUIDANCE ON PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM ERN MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY BUILDING SWD WITH TIME INTO PARTS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB. ALTHOUGH STRONGEST WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MT TROUGH WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR...WIND PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR /30-40 KT IN THE LOWEST 6 KM/ TO ENHANCE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... AMPLE MOISTURE PERSISTS NEAR LEE TROUGH EAST OF THE ROCKIES WHERE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PRESENT. SEVERAL AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS STRONG HEATING COUPLES WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS BUT WEAK WINDS/VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN TX... A SMALL MCS IS MOVING SWD INTO SRN TX THIS MORNING. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH IS INTERSECTING REMNANTS OF OLD FRONTAL EXTENDING FROM NORTH OF CRP TO NEAR SAT. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS CONVECTION IS VERY MOIST WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S AND MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR IF COLD POOL IS ABLE TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND PROMOTES CONTINUOUS REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ALONG ITS LEADING EDGE. ...NEW ENGLAND... VERY COLD MID LEVEL LOW WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -20C IS LIFTING NEWD TOWARD NEW ENGLAND. LOW TOP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL TO DEVELOP. SEE SWOMCD 1912 FOR MORE DETAILS. ..WEISS/JEWELL.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 7 19:54:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 14:54:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408071953.i77JrE926215@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 071951 SWODY1 SPC AC 071949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 072000Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N DVL GFK 55 W AXN BKX 35 N BUB 40 NNW BBW 40 WSW MHN 15 SW AIA 45 W CDR 45 SE 81V 45 WNW REJ 55 SE GDV 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW CTY 50 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 85 E ELO 35 NW RHI 40 S LSE 25 NNW FOD 45 S EAR 20 SW END 35 S SPS 20 WNW AUS 25 SW PSX ...CONT... 65 SSW GBN 20 NNE GBN 40 SE IGM 60 WNW GCN 30 NNE U17 55 SE RKS 20 SE DGW 20 ENE GCC 45 SSW MLS 80 E LWT 20 SE GTF 50 NE FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 25 WSW MSV 40 W ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... 19Z MESOANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE COLD FRONT WAS SITUATED ALONG THE BORDER OF MT...ND AND SD SWWD INTO NRN WY. AIR MASS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT HAS BECOME UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A TREND OF WEAKENING INHIBITION. TSTMS HAVE INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT FROM WRN ND INTO SERN MT AND GIVEN APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH...THESE STORMS WILL GROW UPSCALE AS THEY MOVE INTO WRN PARTS OF SD/ND THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW BENEATH INCREASING WLY MIDLEVEL FLOW TO 30 KTS IS AUGMENTING VERTICAL SHEAR WITH VALUES IN THE 30-40 KT RANGE. AS A RESULT...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE EWD INTO CNTRL PARTS OF SD/ND BY MID-EVENING. STRONGEST INSTABILITY AXIS WILL EXTEND SEWD THROUGH SD AND NRN NEB AND A TSTM CLUSTER COULD EVOLVE AND PROPAGATE ALONG THE SD/NEB BORDER AREA OVERNIGHT WITH AN ATTENDANT WIND/HAIL THREAT. FARTHER N...AIR MASS HAS BEGUN TO RECOVER FROM MORNING CLOUDS...BUT INSOLATION WILL BE WEAKER AND TSTMS THAT APPROACH FROM THE WEST MAY WEAKEN BEFORE THEY REACH THE RED RVR. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... STRONGEST UPSLOPE FLOW APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS SERN CO AND ERN NM PER LATEST MESOANALYSIS...WITH INCREASING WLY FLOW OVER WY. DIURNAL TSTM HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CO/NM MOUNTAINS AND WILL LIKELY DRIFT OFF THE MOUNTAINS ONTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KILOMETERS IS RATHER WEAK AS EVIDENCED BY THE GRANADA AND TUCUMCARI PROFILERS /0-6KM VALUES AOB 20 KTS/. ELY LOW LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL LIKELY BE INSUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. NONETHELESS...ISOLD SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. A CLUSTER OR TWO OF STORMS MAY EVOLVE AND MOVE INTO WRN KS AND THE TX/OK PNHDLS OVERNIGHT...THOUGH THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH. ...NEW ENGLAND... BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S-MID 70S AND DEW POINTS OF 50-55F BENEATH MINUS 20C H5 COLD POCKET HAS CONTRIBUTED TO AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON. NUMEROUS LOW-TOPPED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS WEAK AND ANY GIVEN UPDRAFT WILL NOT LAST LONG. GIVEN THE COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT...HOWEVER...ISOLD STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS. ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN DURING THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING. ...DEEP S TX... MCS THAT MOVED SEWD INTO SCNTRL TX EARLY TODAY HAS DISSIPATED. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES APPEAR TO BE MOVING SWD THROUGH SCNTRL TX AND A FEW TSTMS MAY DEVELOP FROM DEL RIO EWD TO JUST WEST OF VICTORIA THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THESE BOUNDARIES. AIR MASS ACROSS DEEP S TX REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SBCAPES TO 1500 J/KG. DESPITE WEAK TROPOSPHERIC SHEAR ...THE VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN PLACE MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH ANY TSTM THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS DEEP S TX THROUGH THE EVENING. ..RACY.. 08/07/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 00:55:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 07 Aug 2004 19:55:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408080054.i780si908678@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080053 SWODY1 SPC AC 080051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT SAT AUG 07 2004 VALID 080100Z - 081200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 20 NNW FAR 10 NW ATY 35 SE 9V9 15 WSW ANW 20 WNW MHN 35 NE AIA 20 NNW CDR 15 NW RAP 25 WSW Y22 40 N DIK 55 N ISN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW EHA 25 SW LAA 30 E LIC 35 SSE SNY 40 E SNY 35 N IML 30 NW MCK 55 WSW HLC 35 SW GCK 20 NNE EHA 40 WNW EHA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSE CTY 15 NNW DAB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N CMX 10 WNW RHI 10 WSW LSE 15 SSE FOD 25 NW BIE 30 NW P28 30 WSW SPS 50 WNW AUS 40 NW VCT 20 S PSX ...CONT... 75 S GBN 70 E BLH 30 ESE IGM 25 SSW PGA 35 ESE CNY 25 SE CPR 45 ENE 4BQ 10 E GDV 15 SE GGW 45 NW HVR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW BDR 10 E BGM 40 W ART. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD ACROSS MT/WY. STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS SUPPORTING STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW IN SCNTRL SD WITH A MOIST TONGUE WRAPPING NWWD AROUND THE LOW IN NRN SD. MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS LOCATED FROM SRN ND SWD ACROSS CNTRL SD AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 35 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT. A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CURRENTLY EXISTS IN WRN AND CNTRL SD WITH 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8.0 C/KM. THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. A WIND DAMAGE THREAT WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY FARTHER NORTH IN THE LINE ACROSS SRN ND. MODEL FORECAST SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BROKEN LINE...ORGANIZING SWD ACROSS CNTRL SD. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DECREASE BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DECREASES. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTING ACROSS WRN KS AND WCNTRL NEB. SFC DEWPOINTS ACROSS WRN KS ARE IN THE UPPER 60S F WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES EWD INTO FAR WRN KS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR FAR WRN KS THIS EVENING SHOW 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. IN ADDITION...THE DDC 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS WITH A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. HOWEVER...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AREA OF COOLER TEMPS NORTH OF DODGE CITY. THIS SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES FARTHER EAST THIS EVENING. ..BROYLES.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 05:57:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 00:57:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408080557.i785v0921330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 080555 SWODY1 SPC AC 080553 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1253 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 081200Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW CMX 20 E AUW 25 WSW JVL 20 SSE MLI 45 S IRK 40 NNE CNU 50 E LBL 40 W EHA 55 SSE LHX 15 SE LHX 20 NNE LAA 45 SSW EAR OFK 35 NE FSD 30 SE FAR 75 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW APN 10 SW GRR 10 NE CMI 55 SSW STL 20 N FYV 40 ESE OKC 25 WNW SPS 55 WNW MWL ACT 15 SW LFK 40 NW LFT 30 ESE LUL 35 NNE DHN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 45 NNW GBN 30 SW PRC 50 ENE IGM 30 NNW GCN 55 SSE U17 35 NNE CEZ 20 E ASE 10 ESE FCL 35 NNW VTN 35 NNE PIR 10 E MBG 25 NNE DIK 65 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE BOS 20 ENE PSF 15 SSE UCA 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ENTER THE CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AND INTERACT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS MID TO UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS MOST OF NEB AND KS. PARTIAL CLEARING THIS MORNING WILL ALLOW STRONG SFC HEATING...YIELDING MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. A SFC LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL PROVIDE STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM INITIATION ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL KS. ALTHOUGH ASCENT WILL BE WEAKER FARTHER NORTHEAST...OTHER MORE ISOLATED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY ACROSS ERN NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY IN THE NCNTRL ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...SPREADING STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW FROM NW TO SE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL INCREASE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT BUT MULTICELL SHOULD BE THE DOMINATE MODE ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL WILL BE ACROSS CNTRL AND ERN KS WHERE A PLUME OF VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE IN PLACE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...NRN MS VALLEY... CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD NEAR A COLD FRONTAL ZONE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY IN THE 60S F AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AS THE FRONT CONTINUES EWD TODAY...STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL COMBINE WITH SFC HEATING FOR THE INITIATION OF NEW STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORM UPDRAFTS. THE MOST WIDESPREAD COVERAGE SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MN AS A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE TROUGH MOVES EWD...INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS MN AND WRN IA BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL RESULT IN 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR SEVERE MULTICELLS. THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ...W TX/ERN NM... MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO THE LOWER 70S F. SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF SE NM AND FAR W TX...SPREADING GRADUALLY EWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SUSTAINED SEVERE STORMS...LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE STEEP ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED HAIL THREAT. THE HAIL THREAT SHOULD BE BRIEF AND WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED TO THE STRONGEST STORMS NEAR AND JUST AFTER PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 12:25:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 07:25:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408081224.i78COm901350@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081222 SWODY1 SPC AC 081221 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0721 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 081300Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 25 SE TOP 50 E LBL 40 W EHA 25 S LAA 15 NNE LAA 40 SSW GLD 40 ESE LBF 35 NNW BUB 35 SSE ABR 40 ENE JMS 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SE YUM 45 WNW PHX 45 ENE IGM 30 NNW GCN 10 SW CEZ 25 SW GUC 30 NNW 4FC 15 ENE CYS 30 ENE AIA 35 SE PHP 35 S MBG 30 NNW MBG 25 E DIK 30 ESE SDY 70 NNE OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 ENE APN 20 SW MBS 35 S SPI 10 ESE VIH 30 SW UMN 20 N MLC 30 NE ADM 30 N FTW ACT 15 SW LFK 30 NW LFT 20 E LUL 35 NNE DHN SSI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSM 15 E PSF 20 SSE UCA 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS...WILL CONTINUE ESEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY TODAY WITH PRONOUNCED MID LEVEL HEIGHT FALL CENTER SPREADING ACROSS MN/WI THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE COLD FRONT AND MARITIME POLAR AIRMASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH HAS SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AND EAST ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. A FEW SMALL CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE OUTRUN THE SURFACE FRONT AND CONTINUE WITHIN WEAK WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM SERN NEB TO SRN MN EARLY TODAY. DEEP NWLY FLOW AND SURFACE PRESSURE RISES IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS SHOULD RESULT IN STEADY ESEWD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT THROUGH TONIGHT. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SITUATED FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO KS BY MONDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE...WATER VAPOR AND RADAR LOOPS INDICATED A WEAK IMPULSE TRANSLATING SSEWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON THE SERN FLANK OF FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH. THIS FEATURE SHOULD TURN MORE SLY AND MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY THROUGH THE DAY. RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST AND ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWEST THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND LIFTS OUT TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES. ...ERN DAKOTAS/MN/WI... STRONGLY DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS OVER ERN DAKOTAS AND WRN MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. LATEST IR SATL IMAGES INDICATED CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...CLOUD COVER SHOULD THIN SUFFICIENTLY FOR SURFACE HEATING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY...WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER INSTABILITY LIKELY ACROSS SRN/SERN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WEAK CAPPING AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND FRONT. REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND BELT OF STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS SRN HALF OF MN WILL RESULT IN ADEQUATE DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. SEVERAL LINES OR BANDS OF STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH EVENING. GREATER TORNADO THREAT APPEARS SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY WEAK WINDS JUST ABOVE THIS LEVEL RESULTING IN LOW SRH ON FCST SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...TORNADO POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN INTO WRN WI AS STORMS DEVELOP EAST ALONG THE WARM FRONT LATE IN THE DAY. PARTS OF THE REGION MAY REQUIRE AN UPGRADE TO HIGHER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES AS THE SITUATION UNFOLDS. ...NEB/IA/KS/MO... STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME SITUATED ATOP LOW LEVEL MOIST AXIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY ACROSS THE PLAINS. PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRINGE EFFECTS FROM HEIGHT FALL CENTER PASSING THE REGION TO THE NORTH WILL AID IN OVERCOMING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND PROMOTE SURFACE-BASED TSTM INITIATION. IN ADDITION TO MESOSCALE FORCING ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...DEEPER FRONTAL CIRCULATION WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. ORGANIZED MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY GIVEN DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-40KT. SOME ACTIVITY MAY BACKBUILD AND EVENTUALLY BECOME UNDERCUT BY SURFACE FRONT FROM KS INTO MO BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. ...WEST TX/ERN NM... MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND DEEP ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND SERN FLANK OF UPPER RIDGE SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS TSTMS ACROSS THE TRANSPECOS REGION AND THE UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. DESPITE MARGINAL SHEAR...STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE WOULD SUGGEST A FEW WIDELY SCATTERED HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE. ..CARBIN/TAYLOR.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 16:19:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 11:19:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408081618.i78GIi904681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 081616 SWODY1 SPC AC 081615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 081630Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 35 SW OJC 50 SSE DDC 40 W EHA 25 S LAA 15 NNE LAA 40 SSW GLD 40 ESE LBF 30 NNW BUB 35 ESE HON 40 S FAR 75 NNW GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSM 25 NNE PSF 20 N BGM 15 N ROC ...CONT... 80 ESE ANJ 15 N BEH 20 NW VIH 40 SW JLN 35 SSW TUL 40 N FTW 15 W AUS 45 ESE SAT 25 NE NIR 45 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 E HOU 15 WNW LCH 35 NW 7R4 25 ESE LFT 25 N MSY 20 WNW PNS 35 E MAI 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 60 ESE YUM 65 NNW GBN 20 ENE IGM 20 NNE PGA 65 SSW 4BL 30 NNE GUP 30 W 4SL 35 NE 4SL 35 W ALS 50 NNW 4FC 15 ESE LAR 60 NE AIA 45 ENE PIR 30 NW ABR 35 SW JMS 20 SSE P24 30 ENE ISN 65 NNE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... COMPACT/VIGOROUS UPPER LOW LOCATED AT 15Z VICINITY SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA/ND BORDER TRACKING EWD TO BE OVER NRN MN TONIGHT. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM SURFACE LOW SRN MANITOBA THRU ERN DAKOTAS...WITH PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SWRN MN SWWD INTO CENTRAL NEB. PRESSURE SURGE/COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD THRU ERN CO AND WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON. AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE SURFACE BOUNDARIES WILL BECOME MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE BY MID AFTERNOON...AS REMNANTS FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION DISSIPATE AND STRONG HEATING OCCURS. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS NRN MN AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WHERE CURRENT THICK CLOUDINESS WILL BE SLOW TO DIMINISH AS UPWARD MOTION AND COOLING SPREAD EWD WITH UPPER LOW AND FRONT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... STRONG HEATING SRN MN AHEAD OF FRONT/PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENABLE AIR MASS TO DESTABILIZE BY MID AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2000 J/KG. STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF BOUNDARIES BY MID AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS. STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH UPPER LOW REMAINS W OF WARM SECTOR THIS PM...THUS SFC-6KM SHEAR PROFILES OF 25-30 KT SUPPORT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORM MODE. INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT A LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH STORMS SRN MN...WITH DIMINISHING RISK NWD ACROSS NRN MN WHERE AIR MASS WILL STRUGGLE TO DESTABILIZE WITH CURRENT CLOUD COVER. AS UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES EWD...UPPER WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS UPR MS VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING A MORE LINEAR STORM MODE...CONTINUING AT LEAST A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS EWD INTO WI THIS EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... WITH 7-8C/KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS WARM SECTOR TO E OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM SWRN NEB INTO SERN CO...ALONG WITH STRONG HEATING...AIR MASS BECOMES VERY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG COMMON. WHILE MID LEVEL WINDS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 20KT...THE PRONOUNCED VEERING PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. STORMS EXPECTED TO INITIATE BY MID AFTERNOON VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARIES FROM ERN NEB SWWD INTO NRN/WRN KS WHERE CAP WEAKENS. SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUPPORTS POTENTIAL FOR INITIALLY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS PRIOR TO A MORE MULTICELLULAR MODE BY THIS EVENING. OBJECTIVE HAIL MODELS INDICATE LARGE HAIL WILL BE LIKELY ...PARTICULARLY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELLS. LOCALIZED DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ALSO LIKELY GIVEN 30F T/TD SPREADS. STORMS COULD EVOLVE INTO AN MCS OVER CENTRAL KS THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE S/SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. HOWEVER ONLY A WEAK LLJ SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT SHOULD LESSEN AFTER DARK. ...SWRN TX/SERN NM... A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE...WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT PERSISTS THIS AREA. STRONG HEATING WILL ENABLE A FEW STORMS TO BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE DURING AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 8 20:06:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 15:06:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408082005.i78K5K908793@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 082003 SWODY1 SPC AC 082001 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0301 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 082000Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 30 SW IMT 35 W JVL 35 W MLI 40 WSW IRK 35 SW OJC 30 SSW HUT 30 ESE DDC 15 NNW DDC 30 SW HLC 30 E MCK 10 WSW EAR 25 NNE OMA 30 NNE OTG 55 NNE ABR 60 N DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ESE YUM 65 NNW GBN 20 ENE IGM 20 NNE PGA 65 SSW 4BL 30 NNE GUP 30 W 4SL 35 NE 4SL 35 W ALS 50 NNW 4FC 15 ESE LAR 60 NE AIA 45 ENE PIR 30 NW ABR 35 SW JMS 20 SSE P24 30 ENE ISN 65 NNE ISN ...CONT... 80 ESE ANJ 15 N BEH 20 NW VIH 40 SW JLN 35 SSW TUL 40 N FTW 15 W AUS 45 ESE SAT 25 NE NIR 45 ENE CRP ...CONT... 45 SW GLS 25 E HOU 15 WNW LCH 35 NW 7R4 25 ESE LFT 25 N MSY 20 WNW PNS 35 E MAI 20 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 SE PSM 25 NNE PSF 20 N BGM 15 N ROC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VLY TO THE CNTRL PLAINS... ...CNTRL PLAINS... STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING HAS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON FROM CNTRL KS INTO SERN NEB ALONG/AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE FROM S OF OMAHA SWWD TO CNTRL KS WHERE MLCAPES WERE AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. THOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6 KILOMETERS IS 25-30 KTS...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY COMPENSATE AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE INITIALLY WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF TENNIS BALLS AND DAMAGING WINDS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MCS THIS EVENING AND PROPAGATE SSEWD INTO CNTRL KS ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LLJ IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG AND SINCE NOCTURNAL COOLING WILL DECREASE INSTABILITY. ...ERN ND EWD TO UPPER MS VLY... COMPACT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED MINUS 15C H5 TEMPERATURES ATOP AROUND 75/60F SURFACE T/TD HAVE STEEPENED LAPSE RATES SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTMS IN NWRN MN AND ND. COLD TROP AND VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS AN ISOLD BRIEF TORNADO ACROSS ERN ND/NWRN MN THROUGH THE EVENING. ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP EWD AS H5 HEIGHT FALLS TRANSLATE INTO NRN MN OVERNIGHT. MUCH OF NRN MN HAS NOT DESTABILIZED THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO CLOUDS. HOWEVER... ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HAIL LATER THIS EVENING/TONIGHT AS MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN. ELSEWHERE...COMPLICATED SURFACE FEATURES EXIST ACROSS MN/IA INTO THE UPPER MS VLY. WARM/MOIST ADVECTION CONTINUES TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS CLUSTERS ACROSS NRN WI AND OVER SCNTRL MN/NCNTRL IA. STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED VCNTY PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH OVER CNTRL MN AND NCNTRL IA WHERE MLCAPES RANGE UP TO 2000 J/KG. TSTMS WILL EITHER INTENSIFY /BECOME SURFACE BASED/ FROM ONGOING ACTIVITY OR DEVELOP VCNTY THE TROUGH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND MOVE EWD INTO THE UPPER MS VLY LATER THIS EVENING. INCREASING WLY FLOW THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR TSTMS TO DEVELOP INTO LINE SEGMENTS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. EWD EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS CNTRL WI/ERN IA WHERE INSTABILITY VALUES DROP OFF CONSIDERABLY. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... WEAK MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 80S/90S WILL SUPPORT TSTMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS FROM SRN CO INTO NM AND W TX THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO THE MOUNTAINS. ISOLD GUSTY WINDS/LARGE HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...NRN MAINE... TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH COLD CORE ALOFT. ISOLD HAIL APPROACHING SEVERE LIMITS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...SWRN TX... MCV OVER THE CONCHO VLY OF CNTRL TX HAS BEEN INSTRUMENTAL IN TSTM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY AID IN ADDITIONAL TSTMS ALONG THE SRN/WRN PERIPHERY OF CURRENT TSTM COMPLEX THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPES WERE 1500-2000 J/KG. THOUGH TROPOSPHERIC FLOW IS WEAK...ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS...BUT HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT /REF MCD #1923/. ..RACY.. 08/08/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 00:59:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 08 Aug 2004 19:59:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408090059.i790x0922617@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090057 SWODY1 SPC AC 090055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SUN AUG 08 2004 VALID 090100Z - 091200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 NW CMX 20 E RHI 40 WNW OSH 20 E DBQ 30 NE IRK 20 NE MKC 15 WSW EMP 10 WNW HUT 20 SSE RSL 40 WSW CNK 25 NNW FNB 35 N DSM 35 NE MCW 15 NNE MSP 70 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W CTY 50 SSE JAX ...CONT... 20 ESE PSM 15 WNW EFK ...CONT... 80 NE MQT 10 SE ESC 15 SSE MTW 30 S RFD 35 S UIN 15 SE CNU 40 ENE OKC 15 NNW FTW 35 SW TPL 30 WNW VCT 45 S VCT ...CONT... 25 W YUM 25 NE PHX SOW 40 NNE GNT 25 WNW ALS 15 NNW COS 40 SE AKO 30 ESE MCK 20 WNW OMA 30 NW FOD 10 N FRM 35 NNE RWF 60 N DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS... ...UPPER MS VALLEY... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS CURRENTLY PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 1500 TO 2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE ACROSS MN. IN ADDITION...STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW IS PUNCHING FROM THE WEST INTO MN HELPING CREATE 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH THE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. THE 00Z SOUNDING FOR INL SHOWS STRONG DIRECTIONAL IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WHICH WILL RESULT IN AN ISOLATED TORNADO POTENTIAL WITH SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. OTHERWISE...500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO 15 C WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WITH A MARGINAL THREAT LATE THIS EVENING IN ERN WI AND NW IL. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL PLAINS... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SE NEB WITH A LOW IN CNTRL KS. THE AIRMASS IS MODERATELY INSTABLE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WITH A BOWING STRUCTURE CURRENTLY TRACKING SEWD ACROSS NE KS. VAD WIND PROFILES IN NE KS SHOW ABOUT 25 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS HOWEVER...THE MAIN MODE WILL BE MULTICELL. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE LARGE HAIL FORMATION. IN ADDITION...WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LAST A FEW MORE HOURS BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AS THE LINE MOVES SWD INTO DECREASING INSTABILITY ACROSS SCNTRL KS. ...WEST AND SW TX... OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS AN AXIS OF MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD ACROSS W TX. THIS IS FUELING A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NORTH OF DEL RIO. THE 00Z SOUNDING AT DRT SHOWS RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOMEWHAT. MID-LEVEL TEMPS AROUND 4 C WILL BE TOO WARM FOR HAIL HOWEVER...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 05:45:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 00:45:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408090544.i795iE908282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 090541 SWODY1 SPC AC 090540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1240 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 091200Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CAO 35 ENE TAD COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 25 NNW SNY 20 S IML 40 N GCK 30 NE LBL 25 SE EHA 35 N CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI BMI 30 S MMO 30 SSE MKE 15 WNW MBL 85 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 40 SSE EED 35 N INW 20 E FMN 30 SE ASE 30 W 4FC 50 ESE RIW 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP 10 SE GRI 30 E BIE 30 ENE P35 35 NW BRL 20 SW DBQ 45 S LSE 35 WNW STC 35 WNW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 50 W ART 40 E BFD 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 SSW LEX 30 NE HOP 15 WSW DYR 25 NNE PBF 25 SSE PBF 40 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY TODAY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD ACROSS UPPER MICHIGAN AND LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE FRONT IN THE MORNING. AS INSTABILITY INCREASES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...NEW STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO LOWER MI DURING THE AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH LOWER MI TODAY AND SPREAD STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS A JET MAX PUNCHES IN FROM THE WEST. THIS WILL CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI. THE STORMS MAY BUILD SWD INTO NRN IND AND NRN OH BY EVENING. HOWEVER...CONVECTION SHOULD BE MORE ISOLATED IN THE OH VALLEY DUE TO WEAKER FORCING IN THIS AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS THE STORMS MOVE EWD INTO THE LAKE ERIE VICINITY. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS TODAY WILL LIKELY STALL OUT AGAINST THE MTNS ACROSS ERN CO. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SWRN KS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND MOVE SEWD DURING THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN SE CO SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000 TO 2500 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...STRONG LOW LEVEL VEERING WILL EXIST WITH 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AROUND 30 DEGREES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HIGH-BASED SUPERCELLS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AT THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS AND THE INVERTED-V SOUNDING PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. AN MCS SHOULD DEVELOP AND SPREAD SEWD INTO WRN KS BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND NRN OZARKS... MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN TODAY AHEAD A COLD FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE ORIENTED FROM CNTRL KS TO CNTRL IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL HELP INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN SRN KS...SCNTRL MO AND CNTRL IL WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SLOWLY SEWD. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...THE MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A MARGINAL HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ANY STRONG STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WILL LIKELY DECREASE QUICKLY IN INTENSITY AS INSTABILITY DROPS AFTER SUNSET. ..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 12:55:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 07:55:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408091254.i79Cso912520@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091252 SWODY1 SPC AC 091250 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 091300Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CAO 15 N TAD 10 W COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 30 NNE SNY 20 SSW IML 35 S MCK 30 NE LBL 25 SE EHA 25 N CAO. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 20 E JVL 40 NE GRB 85 WNW ANJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ 25 NW BLH 35 W PRC 75 NNE INW 20 ENE FMN 30 W 4FC 35 WSW CPR 30 NNE MQM 25 S S06 30 NNE 63S ...CONT... 35 NNW HVR 65 ESE LWT 35 SW RAP BUB 25 E GRI 40 NNW FNB 10 N LWD 25 NNE OTM 55 NW DBQ 15 S MSP STC 50 SW BJI 10 W RRT ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 35 SSE LBE 15 NNW CRW 15 NNE LEX 20 WSW BWG 20 NW DYR 30 E LIT 30 NE MLU 60 E LUL 20 NW DHN 30 NE VLD 10 NNE DAB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... ERN U.S. TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY TODAY AS ONE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A SECOND TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER NRN AB...DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE NRN PLAINS. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES WILL BUILD NWD ACROSS WRN CANADA. 10Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A LOW OVER WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WITH AN OCCLUDED FRONT TO THE NW OVER NRN MN. TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDED SWD ACROSS WRN WI TO NERN IA...AND THEN SWWD TO ALONG THE NEB/KS BORDER. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS MOVES SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL KS. ...GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST... BAND OF WNWLY 55 KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IN THE BASE OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS NRN IL BY 00Z. SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD AND EXTEND FROM THE ERN U.P. OF MI SWWD ACROSS LAKE MI TO CENTRAL IL/CENTRAL MO BY 00Z. SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVECT LOW-MID 60S SURFACE DEWPOINTS OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. NEW STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SERN WI/FAR ERN IA SINCE 10Z AND OTHER CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS EXTENDING FROM NRN IL TO LOWER MI AND THE ERN U.P. WILL MOVE EWD AND MAY INITIALLY INHIBIT SURFACE HEATING ACROSS LOWER MI/IND/NWRN OH. A MID-LEVEL INTRUSION OF DRY AIR EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE WRN PORTION OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS MORNING. SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH MODEST LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A NARROW AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY 18Z ACROSS FAR ERN WI AND NRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS LOWER MI/NRN IND INTO NWRN OH...WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY AND 30-40 KT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS FAVORING BOTH LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT TODAY...AS MODEST LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL. SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE COLD FRONT...ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 OVER ERN CO. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SURFACE HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE THE LACK OF A WELL DEFINED UPPER FORCING MECHANISM...MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO. NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN A SE STORM MOTION...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING SEVERE AS IT MOVES INTO THE STRONGER INSTABILITY. 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...GIVEN NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ATOP ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS...AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY THREATS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S OVER WRN KS THIS EVENING AS A 30-35 KT SLY LLJ NOSES INTO THIS REGION. THESE CLUSTERS SHOULD MOVE TOWARD CENTRAL KS TONIGHT AS THE LLJ VEERS TO SWLY. ..PETERS/TAYLOR.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 16:20:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 11:20:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408091619.i79GJs915354@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 091617 SWODY1 SPC AC 091616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 091630Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE CLE 20 WSW CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 ESE LAF CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 20 E JVL 25 NNE GRB 25 SSE CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NE CVS 30 SSE LVS 10 W COS 25 N DEN CYS 40 SW BFF 30 NNE SNY 20 ESE IML 35 S MCK 10 WNW GAG 55 NNW CDS 55 NE CVS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CZZ 25 SE TRM 45 NNW BLH 10 E IGM 20 WNW CDC 35 E U24 35 S VEL 45 WNW EGE 35 NE EGE 15 SSE LAR 55 WNW BFF 15 NNE AIA 30 SSW MHN 20 NNW EAR 40 W BIE 10 ENE FNB 30 NNE LWD 35 W CID 55 SSW LSE 30 SW RST 30 NNW MKT 30 E AXN 30 NNW BJI 10 ENE RRT ...CONT... 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 45 W MRB 35 SW EKN 35 SE LEX 20 SW BWG 30 SSW DYR 10 NNE PBF 20 NNE ELD 35 NNW MLU 20 SSE GLH 40 SSW MSL 25 SSW CHA 20 NNW ATL 45 NNE DHN 30 WSW VLD 15 N JAX 25 NE JAX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN GREAT LAKES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE UPPER HIGH LOCATED OVER THE SWRN STATES WHILE UNSEASONABLY STRONG S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD INTO NRN PLAINS AND THEN EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. ONE S/WV TROUGH EXTENDING SWD FROM UPR LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS LS WILL SUPPORT ACTIVE CONVECTION TODAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT EXTENDS SWD FROM SURFACE LOW MOVING NOW MOVING EWD ACROSS WRN LS. FRONT WILL CROSS MI THIS AFTERNOON AND TRAIL SWWD INTO NRN MO AND WWD THRU KS TO ERN CO. ANOTHER STRONGER S/WV TROUGH/UPPER LOW DROPPING SEWD THRU CENTRAL ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY COOL HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL SPREAD INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. NWLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM ROCKIES TO MS VALLEY ENHANCING THE SHEAR PROFILES AND SPREADING STEEP LAPSE RATES EWD ACROSS THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER OF HIGH PLAINS TO S OF FRONTAL ZONE. ...WRN GREAT LAKES... COLD FRONT CURRENTLY FROM WRN UPR MI TO SWRN WI WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ALL OF MI INTO NRN IN BY LATE THIS EVENING. SUFFICIENT HEATING IN WAKE OF FIRST BAND OF STORMS NOW MOVING EWD INTO NRN LWR MI TO ALLOW AIR MASS TO BECOME MDTLY UNSTABLE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT. WITH MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40-45 KT COUPLED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITH THE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM MN...STRONG SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. REF MCD 1929. PRIMARY MODE SHOULD BE LINEAR WITH SHORT LINE SEGMENTS/BOWS FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. HOWEVER AS THE UPPER LOW AND CYCLONIC VORTICITY SPREADS EWD ACROSS NRN MI THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... FAVORABLE NWLY FLOW SEVERE WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF CO/WRN KS SWD INTO TX/OK PANHANDLES. AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S WWD TO FRONT RANGE. ENHANCING THE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ARE SURFACE CYCLONIC CIRCULATIONS LOCATED N OF PALMER DIVIDE E OF DEN AND SERN CO. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 2000 J/KG OR HIGHER BY MID AFTERNOON...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY HIGHER TERRAIN ERN CO INCLUDING IN THE AREAS OF CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE CIRCULATIONS. WITH 35-40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR...COUPLED WITH A STRONGLY VEERING PROFILE...SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY. IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL THREAT...ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE LIKELY. STORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS AND DROP S/SEWD INTO TX/OX PANHANDLES BY THIS EVENING WITH AN ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 20:06:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 15:06:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408092006.i79K63931685@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092002 SWODY1 SPC AC 092000 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0300 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CLE 30 SSE FDY MIE CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 10 W OSH 30 SSW CMX 20 N CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CSM CVS 35 ENE 4CR 20 SSE FCL 35 SW IML HLC 45 W HUT END CSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 45 W MRB BKW JKL HOP 30 SSW DYR PBF ELD 30 NNE MLU TUP MSL CHA 20 NNW ATL 45 NNE DHN 30 WSW VLD 15 N JAX 25 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 ENE CZZ TRM IGM SGU 35 SSW SLC 45 ESE EVW 35 N GJT 35 NE EGE RWL DGW BFF LBF 35 S HSI 10 ENE FNB 30 NNE LWD 35 W CID 55 SSW LSE 30 ENE MKT 20 ESE BJI INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO TO NERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MI/LM...PORTIONS LS...IL...INDIANA...OH...LH...LE... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY GREAT LAKES MEAN TROUGH...WRN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE...AND PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ACROSS GREAT PLAINS. MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- VERY WELL DEFINED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/ONT BOUNDARY REGION -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS LS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS ERN WI...NWRN IL...NRN MO...CENTRAL KS...E-CENTRAL CO. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN KS AND CO...WHILE MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 20 KT OVER LM...ERN LS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS MI/WI/IL. FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SEWD OVER NRN MO. ...GREAT LAKES STATES... SEVERE TSTM RISK -- WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING ATTM ACROSS NERN WI AND WRN UPPER MI -- WILL LAST THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS REGION. REF SPC WW 723 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL. SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER AREAS AROUND LM...EWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND SWD INTO PORTIONS IL/INDIANA/NWRN OH. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING FARTHER N...RELATIVELY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. THIS ALSO WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTM INITIATION DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA...ALONG WITH ABOUT 30-35 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT INVOF FRONT...AS BOTH CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS NEAR FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPES ESTIMATED AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN KS. REF SPC WWS 724...725 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR DETAILS ON NEAR-TERM THREATS. SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK ARE GREATEST INVOF CO PORTION OF SFC FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED...SFC TEMPS AND THEREFORE LCLS ARE LOWEST...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER TO MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG EXTEND WELL SWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MCS AND MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. ..EDWARDS.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 9 23:57:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 18:57:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408092357.i79NvB905909@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 092354 SWODY1 SPC AC 092353 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0653 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 092000Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CLE 30 SSE FDY MIE CMI 10 SSE PIA 45 WNW MMO 10 W OSH 30 SSW CMX 20 N CMX. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CSM CVS 35 ENE 4CR 20 SSE FCL 35 SW IML HLC 45 W HUT END CSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE ART 15 SSW SYR 45 W MRB BKW JKL HOP 30 SSW DYR PBF ELD 30 NNE MLU TUP MSL CHA 20 NNW ATL 45 NNE DHN 30 WSW VLD 15 N JAX 25 NE JAX ...CONT... 15 ENE CZZ TRM IGM SGU 35 SSW SLC 45 ESE EVW 35 N GJT 35 NE EGE RWL DGW BFF LBF 35 S HSI 10 ENE FNB 30 NNE LWD 35 W CID 55 SSW LSE 30 ENE MKT 20 ESE BJI INL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS FROM NERN CO TO NERN NM AND TX PANHANDLE... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MI/LM...PORTIONS LS...IL...INDIANA...OH...LH...LE... AMENDED TO ADD ARIZONA IN A 5% FOR WIND DAMAGE. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND LARGE TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS AT THE SFC WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL REMAIN CHARACTERIZED BY GREAT LAKES MEAN TROUGH...WRN CONUS LONGWAVE RIDGE...AND PREDOMINANT NW FLOW ACROSS GREAT PLAINS. MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW -- VERY WELL DEFINED IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/ONT BOUNDARY REGION -- IS FCST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS LS THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT IS ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWWD ACROSS ERN WI...NWRN IL...NRN MO...CENTRAL KS...E-CENTRAL CO. THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER WRN KS AND CO...WHILE MOVING EWD APPROXIMATELY 20 KT OVER LM...ERN LS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS MI/WI/IL. FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SEWD OVER NRN MO. ...GREAT LAKES STATES... SEVERE TSTM RISK -- WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING ATTM ACROSS NERN WI AND WRN UPPER MI -- WILL LAST THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON AND SHIFT EWD ACROSS REGION. REF SPC WW 723 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NOWCAST POTENTIAL. SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL ALSO ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING OVER AREAS AROUND LM...EWD ACROSS LOWER MI AND SWD INTO PORTIONS IL/INDIANA/NWRN OH. WITH STRONGEST LOW LEVEL FORCING FARTHER N...RELATIVELY VEERED LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES. THIS ALSO WILL LIMIT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND PERHAPS OVERALL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...HOWEVER DIURNAL HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK CAP AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTM INITIATION DURING NEXT 2-3 HOURS. MODIFIED RAOBS AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE FROM CENTRAL LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS NRN PORTIONS IL/INDIANA...ALONG WITH ABOUT 30-35 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW. ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL DECREASES WITH SWWD EXTENT INVOF FRONT...AS BOTH CONVERGENCE AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WEAKEN...HOWEVER A FEW CELLS NEAR FRONT MAY BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH INFLOW-LAYER MLCAPES ESTIMATED AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. ...SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SEVERE TSTM POTENTIAL INCREASING ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS ERN CO AND WRN KS. REF SPC WWS 724...725 AND RELATED MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR DETAILS ON NEAR-TERM THREATS. SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO PROBABILITIES AND SIGNIFICANT HAIL RISK ARE GREATEST INVOF CO PORTION OF SFC FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED...SFC TEMPS AND THEREFORE LCLS ARE LOWEST...HODOGRAPHS ARE LARGEST...AND BOUNDARY LAYER VORTICITY IS MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL FLOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DECREASES WITH SWD EXTENT...INDICATING LESSER ORGANIZATION AND MORE MULTICELLULAR CHARACTER TO MOST CONVECTION...THOUGH MLCAPES AROUND 2000 J/KG EXTEND WELL SWD ACROSS TX/OK PANHANDLES. ACTIVITY ACROSS THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE INTO MCS AND MOVE SEWD TO SWD ACROSS SRN HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT...PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND. ..BROYLES.. 08/09/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 10 00:55:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 09 Aug 2004 19:55:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408100055.i7A0tB925499@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 100053 SWODY1 SPC AC 100051 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 PM CDT MON AUG 09 2004 VALID 100100Z - 101200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CLE 30 SSE FDY 30 NW DAY 25 NE HUF 10 WNW MTO 15 ESE SPI 10 W BMI 50 S CGX 15 W BEH 25 S MBL 35 E ESC 60 ENE MQT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S AMA 20 SE TCC 45 W TCC 30 NNE LVS 30 WNW PUB 35 ESE DEN 25 E AKO 15 SSW MCK 10 NNE RSL 30 NNE P28 10 NW END 40 ENE CSM 30 NNE CDS 30 S AMA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW ART 45 SW ELM 25 N EKN 25 N 5I3 15 NE HOP PBF 15 ENE ELD 25 SE ELD 35 NNE MLU 10 ENE GLH TUP 15 ESE MSL 35 SW CHA 30 SE RMG 30 E CSG 25 N MGR 35 WNW JAX 15 SE JAX ...CONT... 10 SSW IPL 20 ESE EED 50 WSW GCN 15 ESE GCN 80 ESE PGA 10 WSW DRO 40 SSE GUC 25 NNW DEN 25 S SNY 45 ENE MCK 35 SW FNB 40 NE MKC 25 S MLI 35 NNE MMO 15 ENE MKE 40 NE GRB 60 NE CMX. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS... SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN CO...WRN KS AND THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING DRIVEN BY MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG LIFT FROM AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE CNTRL ROCKIES. MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS EXTENDING SEWD FROM THE DENVER AREA INTO SW KS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THE STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS CO AND WRN KS AND THIS WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. VAD WIND PROFILES SHOW 40 TO 45 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND MOST OF THIS IS CONCENTRATED IN THE LOWEST 3 KM. THE DDC 00Z SOUNDING SHOWS STRONG LOW TO MID-LEVEL VEERING AND THIS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT OVER ERN CO AND FAR WRN KS. VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. THE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT...SPREADING SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. BUT THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION. ...GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT MOVING EWD ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM 1000 TO 2000 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS ERN UPPER MI AND WRN LOWER MI. AN APPROACHING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS DRIVING THE CONVECTION AND THE STORMS WILL SPREAD EWD AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS LOWER MI THIS EVENING. A MID-LEVEL JET MAX PUNCHING INTO SRN LOWER MI IS CREATING MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES OF 35 TO 40 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. AS STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...A BROKEN LINE SHOULD DEVELOP. BOWING SEGMENTS IN THE LINE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE. IN ADDITION...COLD AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPS OF -12 TO -14 C WILL MAKE LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. OTHER STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS NRN IND AND CNTRL IL. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN AN AXIS FROM LOWER MI EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN MO. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE THE SEVERE THREAT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK INTO IND. HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SEVERE THREAT DIMINISHING AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION. ...ARIZONA... SCATTERED STRONG STORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SE AND CNTRL AR. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL MAKE ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/10/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 00:48:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 10 Aug 2004 19:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408110047.i7B0liV21856@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110045 SWODY1 SPC AC 110044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE AUG 10 2004 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NW AMA 40 SSW DHT 25 SSW CAO 35 ENE TAD 30 NW LIC 30 W AKO 35 E AKO 25 ESE DDC 25 SW P28 40 ESE GAG 50 WNW CSM 15 NW AMA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE LBB 45 S CVS 65 W CVS LVS 35 N 4FC 25 ENE LAR 40 NNE CYS 20 SE BFF 25 ESE IML HUT 10 NNW PNC 30 ENE OKC 30 ENE FSI 40 S LTS 25 ESE LBB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW EFK 15 ENE ALB 35 SSE MSV 30 WSW ILG 35 WSW DCA 15 NNW SSU 25 SSW CRW 20 NNW CRW 20 WSW MGW 15 N PSB 25 W ITH 15 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW IPL 25 SW EED 55 NE IGM 40 N 4BL 10 ENE EGE 45 SSE RWL 30 N RWL 35 NNE CPR 40 NE RAP 20 N 9V9 20 N OMA 30 SSW STL 25 NE PAH 45 S SDF 50 ENE LEX 25 W HLG 15 W BFD 20 SSW ROC 45 NNE ROC ...CONT... 25 SE ORF 40 ENE DAN 20 NE GSO 30 E CLT 40 NE CAE 25 SSE CHS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NNE BGS 20 SW MAF 35 ESE FST 45 ENE P07 25 SE TPL 20 N POE 25 N ESF 10 NW MLU ELD 10 NNW FTW 15 NNE BGS. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND SRN PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEASTERN US... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/SRN PLAINS... AN MCS IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING IN NE CO AND THIS CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA OVERNIGHT. THE INSTABILITY AXIS IS LOCATED IN ERN CO EXTENDING SEWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE AND NW OK WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SW KS. THIS FEATURE IS A KEY FACTOR WHICH WILL RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THIS OCCURS...THE MCS ORGANIZING IN NE CO WILL PROPAGATE SSEWD ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET. THIS WILL CAUSE THE MCS TO EXPAND AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS IN FAR ERN CO AND FAR WRN KS. VAD WIND PROFILES IN ERN CO CURRENTLY SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 45 TO 55 KT AND THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED SUPERCELL STORMS AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. STRONGLY VEERED WIND PROFILES ACROSS SE CO...SW KS AND THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES AS THE MCS EXPANDS THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION...STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE MODERATE INSTABILITY...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL SUSTAIN THE SEVERE THREAT WITH THE MCS OVERNIGHT. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO INTO A MULTICELL WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX GRADUALLY ORGANIZES INTO A LINEAR MCS AS IT TRACKS INTO THE FAR SE CO AND SW KS. THE MCS SHOULD REACH RED RIVER VALLEY LATE TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...NORTHEASTERN US... A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS WRN NY AND NWRN PA. OTHER STRONG STORMS ARE LOCATED AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY IS IN PLACE WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS ABOUT 30 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE MULTICELLS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES WHICH WILL FAVOR WIND DAMAGE AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING UPPER-TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DROPS ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING. ...ARIZONA... A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS ARE ONGOING IN SCNTRL AZ. THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD SWD ACROSS SRN AZ. MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM 750 TO 1000 J/KG AND THIS COMBINED WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MARGINAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. HOWEVER...INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A BRIEF WIND DAMAGE THREAT OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. ..BROYLES.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 06:10:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 01:10:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408110609.i7B69aV25837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110607 SWODY1 SPC AC 110605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0105 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SAT 60 NNW DRT 45 SE GDP 25 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 40 SW DEN 15 S FCL 40 E FCL 15 SSW AKO 25 NNE LAA 30 NNW AMA 30 WSW CDS 20 N MWL 40 SSW PRX 40 NE SHV 35 WSW MLU 15 WNW ESF 25 WSW POE 40 SE CLL 15 NE SAT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 55 ESE SGU 40 NNE CNY 25 E RWL 35 SSW DGW 25 SW BFF 30 SW RSL 25 E ICT 10 ENE UMN 30 NNW DYR 30 E CKV 25 S LEX 20 NNW UNI 15 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WAL 40 N ORF RIC 20 SE CHO 25 SW MRB 30 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 70 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... ...CO/ERN NM/W TX... SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAINLY ACROSS SE CO AND NE NM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK SSEWD EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. ...NORTHEASTERN US... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO NY...PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE IN THE MTNS ACROSS NY...WRN PA AND WRN VA AROUND MID-DAY. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH SOME TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE LINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NY AND NE PA. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9.0 C/KM. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA... AN MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THOUGH THE OK PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SSEWD AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE MCS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF A SWIFTLY MOVING COLD FRONT AND MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT 12Z. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS E TX AND WRN LA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 18Z. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F...WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX...E TX AND FAR WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX. ..BROYLES/BANACOS.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 06:18:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 01:18:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408110617.i7B6HEV27997@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 110615 SWODY1 SPC AC 110613 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0113 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111200Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE SAT 60 NNW DRT 45 SE GDP 25 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 40 SW DEN 15 S FCL 40 E FCL 15 SSW AKO 25 NNE LAA 30 NNW AMA 30 WSW CDS 20 N MWL 40 SSW PRX 40 NE SHV 35 WSW MLU 15 WNW ESF 25 WSW POE 40 SE CLL 15 NE SAT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML ISP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 55 ESE SGU 40 NNE CNY 25 E RWL 35 SSW DGW 25 SW BFF 30 SW RSL 25 E ICT 10 ENE UMN 30 NNW DYR 30 E CKV 25 S LEX 20 NNW UNI 15 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WAL 40 N ORF RIC 20 SE CHO 25 SW MRB 30 W ART. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 70 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS AND SRN ROCKIES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST... CORRECTED TO TAKE OUT ARIZONA SEE TEXT ...CO/ERN NM/W TX... SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG SOUTH OF THE PALMER DIVIDE THIS AFTERNOON. INITIATION WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY LATE AFTERNOON IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH THE STORMS SPREADING SSEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 40 TO 50 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR WHICH WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. STRONG LOW-LEVEL VEERING MAINLY ACROSS SE CO AND NE NM WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT TRACK SSEWD EAST OF THE MTNS. OTHERWISE...STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V WIND PROFILES WILL FAVOR A LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS INSTABILITY DROPS OFF ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE EVENING. ...NORTHEASTERN US... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD INTO NY...PA AND THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION. AS MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON...A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE IN THE MTNS ACROSS NY...WRN PA AND WRN VA AROUND MID-DAY. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE LINE AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW-LEVEL SPEED SHEAR WITH SOME TURNING IN THE LOW-LEVELS MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS IN THE LINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS SE NY AND NE PA. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS CONSIDERING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9.0 C/KM. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES AND THE STORMS MOVE INTO THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. ...CNTRL AND ERN TX/WRN LA... AN MCS CURRENTLY MOVING THOUGH THE OK PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SSEWD AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED ACROSS NCNTRL TX AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THE MCS WILL BE JUST AHEAD OF A SWIFTLY MOVING COLD FRONT AND MAY BE MARGINALLY SEVERE AT 12Z. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INCREASE AFTER DAYBREAK AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES THE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE MCS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS E TX AND WRN LA SHOW MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 2000 TO 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT BY 18Z. DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE AROUND 25 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 F...WILL RESULT IN A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE MCS MOVES SSEWD ACROSS CNTRL TX...E TX AND FAR WRN LA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. DECREASING INSTABILITY AND WEAKENING VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE EVENING HOURS SHOULD RESULT IN A DIMINISHED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MOVES INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF TX. ..BROYLES.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 12:54:45 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 07:54:45 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408111253.i7BCrvV27681@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111251 SWODY1 SPC AC 111249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111300Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S WAL 40 N ORF 40 WSW RIC 35 NNE LYH 25 SW MRB 30 W ART ...CONT... 40 N BML ISP. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E AUS 50 NE DRT 25 N P07 55 N MRF 20 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 50 S 4FC 20 E DEN 30 NNE LIC 35 N LAA 35 S DHT 25 WNW LBB 50 N ABI 20 SSE MLC 30 WSW HOT 35 WSW MLU 15 WNW ESF 30 WNW BPT 45 W HOU 15 E AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 55 ESE SGU 40 NNE CNY 25 E RWL 35 SSW DGW 25 SW BFF 30 SW RSL 25 E ICT 10 ENE UMN 30 NNW DYR 30 E CKV 25 S LEX 20 NNW UNI 15 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 70 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS/ROCKIES AND EWD TO THE ARKLATEX REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TODAY AS ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS DIGS SSEWD TOWARD THE CENTRAL STATES/LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER WRN NOAM WITH NNWLY FLOW CONTINUING FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE TX/LA COAST. ...NERN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES... SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND TRAILING SWD TO THE OH VALLEY WILL TRACK NEWD INTO SRN ONTARIO/SWRN QUEBEC BY 12Z THURSDAY. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE OH VALLEY WILL MOVE EWD TODAY ACROSS NY/PA AND THE TN VALLEY. DESPITE MODEST LAPSE RATES...POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST AIR MASS WILL RESULT IN AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING FROM VA/DELMARVA AREA NWD TO CENTRAL/ERN NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES EWD INTO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INCREASING SWLY MID-LEVEL WINDS AT 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION...WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE FRONT FAVORING BANDS OF STORMS WITH BOWING SEGMENTS. HOWEVER...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...WITH BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW INDICATING A TORNADO THREAT. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT INTO THE TN VALLEY AND NRN GULF COAST STATES TODAY...WHERE AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP. IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE FORCING...FRONTAL UPLIFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. ISOLATED HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. ...SRN CO/ERN NM INTO PORTIONS OF WRN TX... UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ENHANCED BY ONGOING MCS OVER OK WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SWD TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL STATES...AND ALSO BACK WWD INTO THE SRN ROCKIES. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY. MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...WITH 35-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR RESULTING IN SUPERCELLS. VEERING WIND PROFILES NEAR THE FRONT WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES...WITH A GREATER THREAT EXPECTED TO BE FROM VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY CLUSTER INTO AN MCS TONIGHT AND MOVE SSEWD ACROSS ERN NM AND FAR WEST TX. ...ERN TX TO THE ARKLATEX REGION... SURFACE HEATING DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING MCS...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL OK...IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL BE MODEST AT BEST...LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND SOME ENHANCEMENT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH THE WELL-DEFINED MCV SHOULD ALLOW FOR STORMS TO REINTENSIFY BY THIS AFTERNOON OVER ERN TX INTO SERN OK/SWRN AR AND WRN LA. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ...NERN GULF COAST... T.S. BONNIE IS FORECAST TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY AS IT MOVES INTO THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO. CURRENT NHC FORECAST PLACES BONNIE 60-80 MILES OFF THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE BY 12Z THURSDAY. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IN THE OUTER BANDS OF THIS SYSTEM MAY SUPPORT A FEW ROTATING STORMS/ISOLATED TORNADOES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE COAST OF THE FL PANHANDLE. RISK REMAINS TOO LOW ATTM TO FORECAST A CATEGORICAL RISK...BUT IF THE TRACK/SPEED OF T.S. BONNIE CHANGES THEN A SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:10:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:10:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408111609.i7BG9rV23780@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111605 SWODY1 SPC AC 111604 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1104 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z. ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST... TESTING. THIS IS A TEST OF THE DISSEMINATION SYSTEM. PLEASE DISREGARD. THE OFFICIAL DAY 1 1630Z OUTLOOK WILL BE DISSEMINATED BY 1630Z. ..AFWA.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 16:21:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 11:21:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408111620.i7BGKPV28913@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 111617 SWODY1 SPC AC 111615 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1115 AM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 111630Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML ISP ...CONT... 15 S WAL 40 N ORF 40 WSW RIC 35 NNE LYH 25 SW MRB 30 W ART. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE AUS 50 NE DRT 25 N P07 55 N MRF 20 NNE ALM 20 SW SAF 50 S 4FC 20 E DEN 30 NNE LIC 35 N LAA 35 S DHT 25 WNW LBB 25 SW SEP 35 NNW TYR 20 WNW ELD 35 N ESF 20 NNW ESF 40 NW BPT 45 W HOU 40 SSE AUS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 10 SSE SGU 10 SSW MLF 30 SE U24 20 E PUC 50 ESE VEL 40 E RWL 50 SSW DGW 30 WSW BFF 30 WSW RSL 35 NNW END 35 N OKC 50 SW TUL 20 N FYV 25 S POF 25 ENE CKV 35 SSE LEX 30 N HTS 25 N PKB 30 NNW HLG 10 WNW YNG 40 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 80 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NORTHEASTERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS EWD TO LA... ...SYNOPSIS... WELL ESTABLISHED UNSEASONABLY STRONG LARGE SCALE TROUGH CENTRAL AND ERN U.S. WITH A COUPLE OF SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL WIND MAXS ROTATING THRU TROUGH POSITION. 60KT 500 MB WIND MAX/SW TROUGH MOVES FROM OH VALLEY NEWD TO ACROSS ST LAWRENCE VALLEY TONIGHT WHILE UPSTREAM WIND MAX DROPS SWD THRU NRN PLAINS TO LOWER MO VALLEY BY 12Z THU. AT THE SURFACE PRIMARY LOW MOVING NEWD ACROSS QUEBEC WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING SSWWD THRU WRN NY/PA AND THEN SWWD ACROSS AR. OVERNIGHT SEVERE MCS HAS PUSHED PRIMARY SURFACE BOUNDARY S INTO N TX EXTENDING WWD INTO ERN NM WITH THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT TRAILING THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN PLAINS SOME DISTANCE. T.S. BONNIE IS FORECASTED TO TRACK NEWD TO REACH GULF COAST AFTER THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...NERN U.S... REF MCD 1958 AIR MASS TO THE E OF SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WRN NY/PA BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE MOIST/UNSTABLE. GREATEST INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES CURRENTLY CLIMBING TO 2000 J/KG EXTENDS FROM ERY NY SWD TO E OF CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND MID/UPR SPEED MAX...35-40KT OF SHEAR DEVELOPS DURING AFTERNOON INTERIOR SECTIONS OF NERN U.S. THERE ALSO IS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL VEERING TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR ROTATING STORMS DURING AFTERNOON. WITH DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER AND WEAKENING CIN...STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. PRIMARY THREAT IS DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG FLOW AND AVAILABLE INSTABILITY. TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP IN THE AREA OF FAVORABLE SHEAR ERN NY SWD THRU ERN PA. ...HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SWD OVER THE PLAINS ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. WITH STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING....BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS WILL TURN UPSLOPE ELY/SELY FROM ERN NM NWD INTO SERN CO. GIVEN THE 30-40 KT OF UPPER NWLY FLOW...SHEAR PROFILES WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. STORMS WILL FORM OVER/JUST E OF HIGH TERRAIN ERN CO/NM AND THEN MOVE/PROPAGATE S/SSEWD THRU SERN CO/ERN NM. STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF POLAR AIR MASS WILL LIMIT EWD EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT FURTHER INTO THE PLAINS TODAY. IN ADDITION TO THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH SUPERCELLS GIVEN THE HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH THE MDT/STG INSTABILITY...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ...SRN PLAINS/LWR MS VALLEY... CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEADING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO DEVELOP A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EWD ACROSS TX INTO LA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...PULSE SEVERE WILL BE THE PRIMARY MODE...LIMITING THE AMOUNT OF COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS. SEVERE SHOULD BE LIMITED TO ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...LOCAL DOWNBURSTS. ...ERN GULF COAST... REF NHC ADVISORY WTNT22 OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS OF T.S. BONNIE COULD BE MOVING ONSHORE LATER TONIGHT VICINITY FL PANHANDLE. PRIMARY THREAT OF TORNADOES WITH BONNIE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. ..HALES/GUYER.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 11 20:12:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 15:12:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408112011.i7BKBbV15382@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 112005 SWODY1 SPC AC 112003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 112000Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N BML BID ...CONT... 10 ENE ORF 50 WSW ORF 35 N GSO 20 S MRB 30 NE MSS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W FST 75 SSW GDP ELP 20 SW SAF ALS 20 S LAR 20 SW SNY LAA DHT 50 W LBB 30 W FST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ACT 20 S PRX UOX JAN POE HOU 30 ENE SAT ACT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 15 WSW RAL 20 S PMD 20 SE EDW 30 ESE DAG 40 NNW EED 10 SSE SGU 10 SSW MLF 30 SE U24 20 E PUC 50 ESE VEL 40 E RWL 50 SSW DGW 30 WSW BFF 30 WSW RSL 35 NNW END 35 N OKC 50 SW TUL 20 N FYV 25 S POF 25 ENE CKV 35 SSE LEX 30 N HTS 25 N PKB 30 NNW HLG 10 WNW YNG 40 NE CLE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 NNW GFK 30 NW ATY 25 NW HON 45 NNE PIR 40 WNW MBG 30 NE DIK 80 NE ISN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL/WRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN NY SWWD TO ERN VA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS CENTRAL/ERN TX TO WRN MS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF ERN CO AND ERN NM...FAR W TX... ...SYNOPSIS... ANOMALOUSLY DEEP ERN CONUS LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE...AS PRIMARY SHORTWAVE LIFTS NEWD FROM CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER SPEED MAX DIGS SEWD FROM DAKOTAS. ASSOCIATED SFC FRONTAL ZONE IS NOW ANALYZED FROM CENTRAL NY SWWD DOWN APPALACHIANS TO TN VALLEY AND NWRN MS...THEN WSWWD TOWARD WRN-MOST PORTIONS TX/NM BORDER. THIS FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS MID ATLANTIC REGION...SEWD OVER TN VALLEY/LOWER MS VALLEY AREAS...AND SWD ACROSS TX. FRONTAL ZONE IS PRECEDED BY PREFRONTAL TROUGH/WINDSHIFT LINE OVER ERN NY AND E-CENTRAL PA BEHIND WHICH SFC DEW POINTS DROP FROM UPPER 60S TO 50S AND LOWER 60S..AND WIND VEERS TO SWLY. ...NERN CONUS... STRONG-SEVERE TSTMS ARE GENERALLY MOVING ENEWD ALONG AND AHEAD OF PREFRONTAL TROUGH. TROUGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ACT AS EFFECTIVE WRN BOUND FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL BECAUSE OF VEERED FLOW AND DRYING TO ITS W. MAIN THREAT SHOULD BE DAMAGING WIND...FROM LINE SEGMENTS AND SMALL BOWS. HAIL POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN GREATEST FROM DISCRETE STORMS...WHICH ARE IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES ALSO ARE POSSIBLE. 18Z ALB RAOB -- WITH SOME QUALITY CONTROL APPLIED TO REMOVE BOGUS WET-BULB COOLING EFFECT BETWEEN 500-700 MB -- YIELDED ROUGHLY 2000 J/KG MLCAPE. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING RANGE OF 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IN MOST AREAS WITH MID 60S TO LOW 70S F SFC DEW POINTS -- ANALYZED ALONG AND AHEAD OF PRESENT CONVECTIVE CORRIDOR. REF WWS 738...739 AND ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS OVER OUTLOOK AREA. POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER ABOUT 01Z...WHEN BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BEEN STABILIZED ENOUGH BY DIABATIC COOLING TO REMOVE MUCH OF THE SBCAPE. ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN NW-SE BANDS OVER MOUNTAINS -- ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL WITH MEAN FLOW VECTOR. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD ACROSS ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AND HIGH PLAINS OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL/WIND. STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EVIDENT FROM NERN NM NWD THROUGH S-CENTRAL CO...WHERE 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPES AND 150-200 J/KG 0-3 KM SRH IS EXPECTED...BASED ON PROFILER DATA AND MODEL FCST HODOGRAPHS. REF SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1961 AND WW 740 FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS REGARDING NEAR TERM THREAT. SEVERE POTENTIAL INCLUDING SUPERCELLS EXTENDS ACROSS ERN NM AS WELL...WHERE STRONG VEERING CONTRIBUTES TO LOOPED LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS...AND POTENTIAL FOR STRONGLY DEVIANT CELL MOTIONS TOWARD S. STRONGER UPSLOPE ASCENT AND RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO FARTHER N INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF TSTMS BY 00Z. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1963 FOR NEAR-TERM DETAILS. ACTIVITY MAY ORGANIZE INTO SWD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS WITH WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATION. ...S-CENTRAL/SERN TX...NRN LA... VIS/RADAR IMAGERY AND SFC ANALYSES SHOW PRONOUNCED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND EFFECTIVE FRONT CONTINUE TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH ONGOING TSTM CLUSTER OVER AR/LA BORDER REGION. NEWER DEVELOPMENT CENTRAL/S-CENTRAL TX SHOULD MOVE SEWD TOWARD UPPER TX COAST AND WRN LA THROUGH REMAINDER AFTERNOON. POCKETS OF 70S F SFC DEW POINTS WITH 2500 J/KG MLCAPES ARE EVIDENT OVER THIS REGION...BUT WITH WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES INDICATING PREDOMINANT MULTICELL CHARACTER TO CONVECTION. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS AND OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE -- WITH MAIN THREAT BEING BEFORE APPROXIMATELY 02Z. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1962 FOR NOWCAST OVER CENTRAL TX. ...ERN GULF COAST... LATEST NHC GUIDANCE PREDICTS TS BONNIE TO MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE EARLY DAY-2...HOWEVER PERIPHERAL WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS MINI-SUPERCELLS IN ASSOCIATED OUTER BANDS COULD BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND SWRN GA DURING LAST FEW HOURS OF PERIOD. THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN MARGINAL TORNADO PROBABILITIES THIS AREA FOR NOW. IF THIS CYCLONE ACCELERATES OR WIND FIELDS EXPAND BEYOND CURRENT GUIDANCE...SITUATION SIMILAR TO THAT DESCRIBED IN DAY-2 OUTLOOK COULD SPREAD INTO THIS AREA EARLY. ..EDWARDS.. 08/11/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 00:53:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 11 Aug 2004 19:53:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408120052.i7C0qQV28442@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120050 SWODY1 SPC AC 120048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004 VALID 120100Z - 121200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE CNM GDP ELP 35 WNW ALM 15 SSE ABQ 30 SE SAF 15 WNW RTN 25 NNW CAO 20 S CAO 20 SSE CVS 30 ENE CNM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW CZZ 25 WNW TRM RAL 45 E NID 10 SSW DRA 25 S P38 BCE 60 SSW 4BL GUP GNT 4SL ALS 20 SSE ASE 30 SW LAR CYS IML GCK AMA 10 S LBB BGS BWD 15 NNE SEP DAL 10 WNW PRX HOT MEM BWG LOZ 5I3 MGW 10 NNW BFD 35 ENE ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE DVL 60 NNE ATY BKX MHE 40 NE PIR MBG BIS 55 WSW DVL 15 SE DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN NM... ...SE CO/ERN NM... AT LEAST ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN WITH ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS SE CO/ERN NM THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY PROPAGATING S/SE REMAINDER OF NIGHT INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. THREAT OF LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST OWING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY/MODERATE SHEAR. EWD EXTENT OF PROPAGATION/SEVERE THREAT WILL BE LIMITED BY RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS. REFERENCE MCD 1967 AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSION/WATCH UPDATES FOR LATEST SHORT TERM INFORMATION. ...NORTHEAST STATES... BROAD FORCING FOR ASCENT AHEAD OF WRN GREAT LAKES TROUGH WILL SUPPORT ISOLD/SCT TSTMS REMAINDER OF EVENING FROM ERN PORTIONS OF NY/PA EWD INTO NEW ENGLAND STATES. IN SPITE OF STRONG AMBIENT WIND FIELDS...LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING/DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS ONLY LOW END WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES ARE PRUDENT REMAINDER OF NIGHT. ...AZ... TSTMS ONGOING INVOF HIGHER TERRAIN ACROSS SCNTRL AZ. IN SPITE OF WEAK N/NE STEERING FLOW /10-15 KTS PER 00Z FGZ SOUNDING/...APPARENT DEVELOPMENT OF COLD POOL/MODEST DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT ISOLD DAMAGING WIND/HAIL THREAT THROUGH THE EARLY/MID EVENING HOURS FROM HIGHER TERRAIN ONTO THE DESERT FLOOR. ...LA/FAR SE TX/NRN MS... ISOLD SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE OVER NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING TSTM CLUSTERS AHEAD OF SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT. COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY/RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR SUGGESTS ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINAL HAIL IS POSSIBLE. ...ERN GULF COAST... WITH CONTINUED NELY MOVEMENT...LATEST NHC GUIDANCE PREDICTS TROPICAL STORM BONNIE TO MOVE ASHORE FL PANHANDLE THURSDAY MORNING. ASSOCIATED PERIPHERAL WIND FIELDS AND PERHAPS MINI SUPERCELLS /WITH ISOLD TORNADO THREAT/ IN OUTER BANDS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF FL PANHANDLE AND SW GA NEAR END OF PERIOD. ..GUYER/KERR.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 05:36:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 00:36:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408120536.i7C5aCV19480@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 120534 SWODY1 SPC AC 120532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S SRQ 25 NNE FMY 50 ESE FMY 35 SW MIA 65 ENE EYW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE JAX GNV 35 S CTY ...CONT... 30 SSE CEW DHN 35 W MCN 40 S CLT 40 ENE DAN 10 SSE RIC 20 E ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ABQ 15 E 4SL 45 S ALS 15 NW RTN 30 W CAO 20 NNW CVS 15 N HOB 10 ESE INK 20 NNW MRF 10 SE ELP 45 SSE TCS 30 S ONM 10 NW ABQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 35 SSE RAL 20 NNE OXR 20 SE SMX 25 SE SJC 35 ESE SAC 35 WSW SVE 35 NE RBL 30 WSW RBL 55 SSE EKA 35 NE 4BK 25 WNW SLE 15 W CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 4OM 25 S YKM 70 ENE 4LW 10 W NFL 55 W TPH 50 NW DRA 30 WSW P38 15 W DRO 40 E GJT 40 ENE CAG 15 NNE FCL 50 ENE LIC 55 ESE GLD 40 W CNK 20 E LNK 40 NNE STJ 25 WNW SZL 20 ENE JLN 35 WSW BVO 25 SSW FSI 35 S SJT 40 ESE DRT 35 SW COT NIR 20 NW PSX 25 N GLS 25 SW HEZ 40 SW CSV 25 NW CRW DUJ 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEW MEXICO.... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE IN THE HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL OCCUR THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SHARP UPPER RIDGE AXES WILL PERSIST...ONE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...ANOTHER FR0M THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...EITHER SIDE OF A LARGE SCALE TROUGH AXIS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ...ATLANTIC COAST STATES... MUCH OF THE EASTERN STATES WILL REMAIN UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME. THIS WILL EVENTUALLY SUPPORT NORTHWARD ACCELERATION OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND WILL CONTINUE INLAND INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA DURING THE DAY...AS SHORT WAVE DIGS TOWARD BASE OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY/NORTHERN GULF STATES. GIVEN INFLUX OF LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. BEST CHANCE FOR THIS APPEARS TO BE JUST EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL..NEAR/EAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AS WELL AS IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING/BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES MAY CONTINUE NEAR CYCLONE CENTER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...RISK OF TORNADOES WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WITH THE APPROACH OF HURRICANE CHARLEY. OTHERWISE...IN WAKE OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTING ACROSS THE EASTERN CANADIAN PROVINCES...AND AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION MAY REDEVELOP FROM THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND. THOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...BELT OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL ENHANCE MEAN FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES. THIS MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT GUSTY WINDS...PERHAPS SOME HAIL...IN ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S... CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL BE GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS NEAR/SOUTH AND EAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE...WHERE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU/ROCKIES/AND HIGH PLAINS. OROGRAPHY LIKELY WILL BE PRIMARY FORCING FOR ACTIVITY...SOME OF WHICH COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WEAK TO MODERATE CAPE WILL SUPPORT RISK FOR HAIL/DOWNBURSTS AS CONVECTION SLOWLY PROPAGATES SOUTHWARD OFF THE MOGOLLON RIM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST BENEATH MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO. MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING ARE EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION BY AFTERNOON. GIVEN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES...A FEW SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LARGE HAIL PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. OTHER MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE SIERRA NEVADA AND CASCADES...AS LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 13:06:26 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 08:06:26 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408121305.i7CD5mV27316@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121303 SWODY1 SPC AC 121301 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0801 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 121300Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NW ABQ 15 E 4SL 45 S ALS 10 N EHA 45 S LBL 40 NE PVW 45 NE HOB 10 ESE INK 20 NNW MRF 10 SE ELP 45 SSE TCS 30 S ONM 10 NW ABQ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 20 N DHN 30 WNW MCN 25 E SPA 10 NW DAN 30 SW NHK WAL ...CONT... 10 E DAB 45 SW ORL 25 NNE FMY 35 SSW MIA 60 SSW MIA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SAN 35 SSE RAL 20 NNE OXR 20 SE SMX 25 SE SJC 35 ESE SAC 35 WSW SVE 35 NE RBL 30 WSW RBL 55 SSE EKA 35 NE 4BK 25 WNW SLE 15 W CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW 4OM 25 S YKM 70 ENE 4LW 10 W NFL 55 W TPH 50 NW DRA 30 WSW P38 15 W DRO 40 E GJT 40 ENE CAG 15 NNE FCL 50 ENE LIC 55 ESE GLD 45 W CNK GRI 10 NE OLU 50 ENE OMA 25 E LWD 45 NW COU 25 NE SGF 25 NNW UMN 35 WSW BVO 25 SSW FSI 35 S SJT 40 ESE DRT 35 SW COT NIR 20 NW PSX 25 N GLS 25 SW HEZ 40 SW CSV 25 NW CRW DUJ 30 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY STRONG ERN NOAM TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER TODAY... AS WHAT APPEARS TO BE THE LAST IN A SERIES OF STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVES SEWD TOWARD THE TN VALLEY/NRN GULF COAST STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD. ...PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY. CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE INDICATED T.S. BONNIE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY FROM THE SERN TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY...AS SHARPENING OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BACKS MEAN FLOW. CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND THEN TRACKS INTO SRN GA/SRN SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE THEN REMNANTS OF T.S. BONNIE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED TORNADO POTENTIAL REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWD JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW LOCATED OVER ERN TN...AND ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG MID-LEVEL JET ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS WILL SHOULD LIMIT SURFACE HEATING...40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT. ...ERN NM/SRN CO AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH IS NOW LOCATED OVER THE MID MO VALLEY...WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS REACHING THE OK/NRN TX PANHANDLE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A RESIDUAL MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG/ BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN NM/SRN CO AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS. 30-40 KT OF NWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW COMBINED WITH ESELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TONIGHT...WITH MOVEMENT SEWD INTO THE TRANSPECOS REGION. ...PORTIONS OF AZ... THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM AND HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ. 15-20 KT OF NNELY TO ELY MID-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS...WHERE POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY AND INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC FIELDS WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS. ..PETERS/BANACOS.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 16:31:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 11:31:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408121630.i7CGUaV23330@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 121625 SWODY1 SPC AC 121624 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 1124 AM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 121630Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S DMN 20 WNW TCS 35 ESE GNT 20 NW 4SL 20 NW ALS 30 ENE PUB 40 E LAA 25 SSE LBL 35 NNW CDS 60 ESE LBB 25 ENE BGS 50 S MAF 25 ENE MRF 40 SW MRF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S CEW 20 ESE CSG 30 SSE AND 25 SSW CLT 25 ESE DAN 10 W RIC 10 E NHK 20 E SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW 4OM 10 NW EPH 65 NNW BNO 65 SE 4LW 30 WNW LOL 15 NW TPH 40 NNE DRA 55 S SGU 55 SE U17 40 SSE CNY 15 ENE GJT 20 N 4FC 35 E FCL 35 S IML 45 WSW HLC 35 WSW HUT 10 N CNU 45 E BVO 30 NNW MLC ADM 30 SSE FTW 65 SSW TYR 40 SW SHV 20 NW MLU 20 WSW GWO 35 E TUP 25 SW HSV 25 N CHA 45 SE LOZ 25 SW CRW 35 ESE PKB 25 SSW DUJ 40 ENE JHW 25 E BUF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... DEEP TROUGHING ACROSS THE CNTRL US WILL AMPLIFY FURTHER TODAY. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THE JET STREAM, ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW US AS WELL AS ALONG ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL MOVE ONSHORE BY 18Z ENHANCING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ERN GULF AND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. ...PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY. CURRENT NHC GUIDANCE INDICATED T.S.BONNIE WILL MOVE INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN FL PANHANDLE AROUND 18Z...WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES WILL FURTHER ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY FROM THE SERN TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL. CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. GREATEST THREAT WILL BE JUST EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER AS IT MAKES LANDFALL AND THEN TRACKS NNEWD ACROSS SE GA AND INTO CNTRL SC LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. GIVEN FAST MOVEMENT OF THE THEN REMNANTS OF T.S. BONNIE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES...REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWWD JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE JET WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ...NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX... EXISTING WEAK SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER NM...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH CONTD SURFACE HEATING... OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PASSAGE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. CAPES WITH VALUES OF 1500 TO 2500 J/KG ARE INDICATED ON THE LATEST ETA MODEL RUN. INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TONIGHT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE SE. VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ..AFWA.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 12 20:10:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 15:10:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408122011.i7CKB0V24854@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 122005 SWODY1 SPC AC 122005 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK ISSUED BY AFWA OFFUTT AIR FORCE BASE BELLEVUE NE 0305 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 122000Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DMN 20 SE 4SL 40 NNE ALS 30 W GCK 40 SW TUL 20 E ADM 45 WSW ABI 35 NW DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE TLH 30 N AGS 20 N GSO 30 E HGR 20 NE MSV EWB 25 SE EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW 4OM 40 WNW PDT 65 NNW BNO 55 SSE 4LW 10 NNW RNO 30 ESE BIH 55 NE LAS 25 E SGU 35 SSW 4BL 35 SSE MTJ 45 WNW 4FC 25 SSE CYS 15 S MCK 45 SSE BIE OJC 20 ENE UMN 40 SSW HOT 30 S TXK 20 WSW BPT 30 NE GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW MOB GAD 30 NE CSV 35 NNW JKL 30 SW UNI 35 NE JHW 25 NW ROC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE SMX 15 ESE SJC 45 E ACV 15 NW SLE 30 SE CLM 35 NW BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL US WILL DEEPEN AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS WILL PROPAGATE THROUGH THIS FEATURE, ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE SW US AS WELL AS ALONG ERN SEABOARD DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAS MADE LANDFALL AT 18Z. ..PORTIONS OF THE NERN/ERN GULF TO ATLANTIC COAST STATES... BAND OF MODERATE TO STRONG SWLY MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE ERN STATES TODAY. T.S. BONNIE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NNE WITH THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT ACCELERATING THIS SYSTEM NNEWD ACROSS THE SRN TO MID ATLANTIC STATES LATER TODAY/TONIGHT. SURFACE FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE ERN SLOPES OF THE APPALACHIANS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS FLOW ALOFT REMAINS NEARLY PARALLEL. CONTINUED INFLUX OF MOIST AIR MASS /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S/ FROM THE NERN GULF TO SRN ATLANTIC STATES AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. BONNIE WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. STRONG LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF TORNADOES...REACHING SERN VA BY 12Z SATURDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...REFER TO LATEST NHC GUIDANCE AND WATCHES/MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS. THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH MESO-LOW AS IT MOVES NNEWD ALONG SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH CNTRL NC AND INTO VA. LATER TONIGHT...TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL CONT ACROSS THE LOWER FL KEYS AND SWRN FL PENINSULA AS HURRICANE CHARLEY MOVES NWWD JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER FL KEYS BY 12Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...FARTHER NORTH FROM NRN MID ATLANTIC STATES TO NEW ENGLAND...WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVING NEWD ALONG THE JET WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. ...NM/SERN CO/WRN OK/ AND WRN TX... EXISTING WEAK SURFACE LOW COMBINED WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IS PRESENT OVER NM...LIFT WILL BE ENHANCED WITH CONTD SURFACE HEATING... OROGRAPHIC FORCING AND PASSAGE OF APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UNDER THESE CONDITIONS. MLCAPE WITH VALUES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING SLY LLJ NOSING INTO SERN NM WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS TONIGHT WITH MOVEMENT TO THE ESE. VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL NWLY FLOW COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..AFWA.. 08/12/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 01:09:06 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 12 Aug 2004 20:09:06 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408130108.i7D18OV01535@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130106 SWODY1 SPC AC 130104 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0804 PM CDT THU AUG 12 2004 VALID 130100Z - 131200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 4CR 30 SW LVS 40 SSE RTN 10 ESE CAO 35 SW GAG CSM 15 WSW OKC 35 WSW ADM 45 WSW SPS 65 ESE LBB 15 NE BGS 35 ESE MAF FST 35 S GDP 50 ESE ALM 4CR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE SRQ 50 ENE FMY 30 S MIA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N SSI 70 ESE MCN 10 NW CAE 20 ESE GSO 25 SSE CHO DOV 45 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CZZ RAL PMD BFL 50 NE MER RBL 35 ENE CEC 10 NNE SLE OLM 30 SSE BLI 65 W 4OM YKM 50 W BNO 4LW 35 NE SVE 15 SE NFL 40 N TPH MLF 75 S 4BL 50 NE GUP 4SL 35 WNW ALS GUC 4FC LIC LAA 50 SSE DDC PNC MLC 25 NW PRX 10 S DAL 10 WNW SEP 25 SE ABI 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW BVE MOB MGM 20 SE ANB ATL TRI 30 WNW BLF 35 NNW SHD CXY 25 WNW EFK. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN FL PEN AND KEYS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... ...EASTERN SEABOARD... TROPICAL SYSTEMS CONTINUE GENERAL NORTHWARD MOTION...AROUND WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND AHEAD OF HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WHICH REMAINS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. REMNANTS OF BONNIE...NOW EMBEDDED WITHIN BELT OF STRONGER SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF TROUGH...WILL CONTINUE ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES OVERNIGHT. FLOW IS MUCH WEAKER TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...BUT HURRICANE CHARLEY IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA INTO THE VICINITY OF THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS BY THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. BEST RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST WITH CHARLEY...AND POTENTIAL APPEARS LIKELY TO INCREASE ACROSS THE KEY WEST AREA BY 13/06-09Z. BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS ARE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THIS AREA...AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN BUOYANT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF CIRCULATION CENTER. DEW POINTS ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...INCREASE INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S APPEARS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AS CIRCULATION CENTER OF BONNIE RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTHWARD. SURFACE LOW...CURRENTLY CENTERED SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SAVANNAH GA...IS PROGGED EAST OF COLUMBIA SC THROUGH THE RALEIGH NC AREA INTO PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST VA BY LATE TONIGHT. IF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RECOVERS...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES LIKELY WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... STRONG HEATING AND MOISTURE RETURN TO THE WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS SUPPORTING ONGOING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF BAJA AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE SIERRA NEVADA INTO THE CASCADES. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ANOTHER DIGGING IN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...APPEAR TO BE PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA. MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO CONSOLIDATE WEST OF LUBBOCK TX INTO THE ROSWELL NM AREA NEXT FEW HOURS...WHERE NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES. GIVEN CONTINUING PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...RISK OF AT LEAST LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LARGER-SCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM EVOLVES/ADVANCES SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE PECOS VALLEY. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE COLD POOL AND MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF FAIRLY QUICK COOLING OF BOUNDARY LAYER NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 05:32:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 00:32:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408130532.i7D5WLV19110@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 130530 SWODY1 SPC AC 130528 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1228 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ALS COS LAA 20 E DHT TCC LVS SAF 55 SSW ALS ALS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW CTY 55 N AYS 45 ESE CAE RDU 45 W RIC BWI 15 E MSV 15 WSW BDL 25 SSW GON. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 35 W AVL 25 NNW SSU 35 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S VBG 30 NNW BFL 30 ENE SCK 40 SW MFR 25 WSW SEA 45 E SEA 15 SSW BKE 45 NE EKO 25 E DPG 15 SE MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 10 WNW MCK 40 SSW RSL 15 SE HUT 30 ENE PNC 35 WSW MKO 35 SSE DAL 30 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MID/NRN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.... DOWNSTREAM OF CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...MODELS SUGGEST SHARP UPPER RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD FROM THE COLORADO VALLEY INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. MEANWHILE...UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO REMAIN STRONG ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ATLANTIC. IN BETWEEN...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH AXIS WILL REMAIN NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...EXTENDING DEEP INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. HOWEVER... MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO LIFT OUT OF THE LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEY REGION...RAPIDLY ACCELERATING INTO QUEBEC BY EARLY SATURDAY. ...EASTERN SEABOARD... IN RESPONSE TO SHORT WAVE TROUGH...INTENSIFYING MID/HIGH LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRYING...AHEAD OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH AXIS...WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT INTO THE VICINITY OF THE APPALACHIANS TODAY. MOIST SUBTROPICAL BELT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AS WELL...BECOMING GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE MID AND NORTHERN ATLANTIC COAST. EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...STRONGER MEAN FLOW/LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF BONNIE WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA THROUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND DURING THE DAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL...AS HEATING OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F OCCURS. RISK OF HAIL APPEARS MINIMAL IN TROPICAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...BUT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN A THREAT IN MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE CHARLEY AS CIRCULATION CENTER TRACKS NORTHWARD...JUST OFF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA GULF COAST THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. BOUNDARY LAYER IS ALREADY EXTREMELY MOIST WITH MID 70S TO NEAR 80F DEW POINTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PENINSULA. VERY BUOYANT SURFACE-BASED AIR MASS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER. RISK OF TORNADOES LIKELY WILL PERSIST DESPITE LOSS OF SURFACE HEATING THROUGH THE NIGHT...AS SYSTEM TURNS INLAND ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PENINSULA TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. ...WESTERN STATES INTO THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... MODELS SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE TO OVERALL CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TODAY...ASIDE FROM INCREASING PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE LEE OF THE CASCADES...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD TO THE WEST OF UPPER RIDGE AXIS. WITH STRONG HEATING BENEATH UPPER RIDGE...THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS. BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING RISK OF ISOLATED SUPERCELLS...APPEARS TO BE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANOTHER WEAK JET STREAK/SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW EAST OF UPPER RIDGE. FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST COLORADO/NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP SOUTH SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE VICINITY OF THE NEW MEXICO/TEXAS BORDER BEFORE WEAKENING LATE THIS EVENING. ..KERR/BANACOS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 12:25:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 07:25:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408131224.i7DCOWV18432@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131222 SWODY1 SPC AC 131220 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0720 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 131300Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NNE ALS 35 E COS LAA 25 SE DHT 55 SW LBB 20 E CNM 35 WSW ROW 55 SSW LVS 45 NNE ALS. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE TLH 55 N AYS 45 NE CAE 15 WSW FAY 20 SSE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 35 W AVL 25 NNW SSU 35 WSW ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S VBG 30 NNW BFL 30 ENE SCK 40 SW MFR 25 WSW SEA 45 E SEA 15 SSW BKE 45 NE EKO 25 E DPG 15 SE MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 10 WNW MCK 40 SSW RSL 15 SE HUT 30 ENE PNC 35 WSW MKO 35 SSE DAL 30 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SERN U.S... REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WILL SOON LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS REGION OF NC. STRONGER LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL AND TORNADIC THREAT WILL SHIFT OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR TORNADOES EXPECTED INLAND ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC/DELMARVA THE REST OF THE PERIOD. FARTHER SOUTH...HURRICANE CHARLEY IS MOVING STEADILY NWD TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF FL. INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND ATTENDANT TORNADO THREAT WILL SPREAD FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE COASTAL CAROLINAS IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF MAIN CIRCULATION. ...CENTRAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY MOIST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NM/CO FOR ANOTHER EPISODE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITHIN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 35-40KT...GIVEN THE SELY-NWLY VEERING PROFILES WITH ROUGHLY 30KT AT 500MB. IT'S NOT OBVIOUS IN THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE SEWD ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...AFTERNOON HEATING SHOULD ONCE AGAIN PROVE FAVORABLE FOR TERRAIN-INDUCED INITIATION WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 16:31:25 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 11:31:25 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408131632.i7DGWVV00965@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131629 SWODY1 SPC AC 131627 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1127 AM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 131630Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PUB 35 ENE PUB 15 SW LAA 35 WNW PVW 20 N INK 20 N GDP 30 NE ALM SAF 45 WSW PUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CTY 25 NNW SAV 40 ENE FLO 25 SE OAJ. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S JFK 15 N POU 15 NNW PSF 20 WSW EEN 20 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PFN 50 NE MCN 20 E AVL 10 SSW SHD 35 WSW PSB ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RAL 15 NNE LAX 30 NE SBA 25 SSW BFL 55 NNE BFL 50 SSW TVL 35 SE MFR 50 SE OLM 40 NW YKM 55 NNW BOI 50 SW ENV 40 ENE BCE 20 S MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 15 E LBF 10 SSE RSL 50 SSW EMP 30 NNW MLC 45 WNW TYR 30 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE FL PENINSULA NWD ACROSS THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.... ...FL PENINSULA... HURRICANE CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE FL GULF COAST THIS EVENING IN THE SRQ TO PIE AREA...AND CONTINUE INTO N FL OVERNIGHT /REFER TO LATEST NHC ADVISORIES FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/. THE OUTER CONVECTIVE BANDS NE OF THE CENTER ARE NOW SPREADING NWD ACROSS S FL...AND SHOULD REACH CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS OVER S FL ARE ALLOWING SURFACE HEATING BETWEEN THE RAIN BANDS /SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARMING IN THE MID-UPPER 80S WITH UPPER 70 DEWPOINTS/...WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG OVER S FL. WIND FIELDS AND ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN OVER SRN/CENTRAL FL AS THE HURRICANE APPROACHES THE COAST...THUS THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NWD INTO CENTRAL FL THIS AFTERNOON...AND N FL TONIGHT. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... DEEP MOIST PLUME PERSIST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITH MUCAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 1000-2000 J/KG GIVEN THE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S. HOWEVER...40-50 KT SSWLY MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONTRIBUTING TO 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. THE COMBINATION OF RICH MOISTURE...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...AND VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO...SHOULD BE FOCUSED THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND IN THE WARM SECTOR OF A SURFACE LOW IN THE HUDSON VALLEY. THE SEVERE THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS SE NEW ENGLAND ALONG THE PATH OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE. ...SE ATLANTIC COAST... THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE HAVE MOVED NEWD OFF THE NC COAST AS OF MID MORNING...WITH WLY/SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SOME DRYING IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM ACROSS THE ERN CAROLINAS. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS/RAIN WILL SPREAD NWD ALONG AND N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE WAKE OF THE BONNIE REMNANTS...WHICH WILL TEND TO LIMIT DESTABILIZATION AND THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY FROM SE GA TO ERN NC. BY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE RICHER TROPICAL MOISTURE SHOULD SPREAD BACK NWD/NWWD ACROSS THE GA/SC/NC COASTS IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE. THE PRESENCE OF A NNE-SSW SURFACE BOUNDARY AND RICH MOISTURE...ALONG WITH MODEST/INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR LATE IN THE PERIOD...COULD SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO TONIGHT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S...BENEATH 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THIS MODERATE INSTABILITY...IN COMBINATION WITH 25-35 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW...WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR STORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN NM AND SRN CO...WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE SWD INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 13 20:01:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 15:01:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408132001.i7DK12V28749@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 131956 SWODY1 SPC AC 131954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 132000Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW PUB 35 ENE PUB 30 N EHA 45 ESE AMA 15 NW MAF 20 N GDP 30 NE ALM SAF 45 WSW PUB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S JFK 15 N POU 15 NNW PSF 20 WSW EEN 20 S PSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W CTY 25 NNW SAV 40 ENE FLO 25 SE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PFN 50 NE MCN 20 E AVL 10 SSW SHD 35 WSW PSB ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RAL 15 NNE LAX 30 NE SBA 25 SSW BFL 55 NNE BFL 50 SSW TVL 35 SE MFR 50 SE OLM 40 NW YKM 55 NNW BOI 50 SW ENV 40 ENE BCE 20 S MTJ 40 NNE EGE 20 N LAR 25 NW BFF AIA 15 E LBF 10 SSE RSL 50 SSW EMP 30 NNW MLC 45 WNW TYR 30 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF FL AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... HURRICANE CHARLEY IS NEARING LANDFALL ALONG THE SWRN FL COAST ATTM...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING NNEWD INTO NERN FL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...HIGHLY-AMPLIFIED MID-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE CONUS WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SWD TO THE CENTRAL GULF AND A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...FL AND THE SOUTHEAST... EYEWALL OF HURRICANE CHARLEY IS NOW AFFECTING THE ISLANDS W OF FMY...WHILE STORMS WITHIN SEVERAL OUTER BANDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA HAVE SHOWN SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. A COUPLE OF TORNADOES HAVE BEEN REPORTED...AND EXPECT ROTATING STORMS AND ASSOCIATED TORNADO THREAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL FL...E AND N OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. PLEASE REFER TO TORNADO WATCH 750 AND LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... STORMS NOW DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN CO / NERN NM SHOULD INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE. LATEST AMA /AMARILLO TX/ WSR-88D VWP AND GDA /GRANADA CO/ PROFILER SHOW WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AND INCREASING TO 30 KT FROM THE NW AT MID-LEVELS...RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND PERHAPS INTO THE TX / OK PANHANDLES WITH ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP AWAY FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO WW 751 NOW IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NM / SERN CO. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND... WEAK LAPSE RATES BUT MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS IS RESULTING IN AROUND 500 TO 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WITHIN SMALL WARM SECTOR ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK HUDSON VALLEY SURFACE LOW. SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF BONNIE -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. WITH ENHANCED /30 TO 40 KT/ LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION...A THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL PERSIST -- AT LEAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/13/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 00:47:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 13 Aug 2004 19:47:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408140047.i7E0l5V27166@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140044 SWODY1 SPC AC 140042 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 PM CDT FRI AUG 13 2004 VALID 140100Z - 141200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW RTN 15 E RTN 50 SW CAO 25 NW TCC 35 SW TCC 60 W CVS ROW CNM 20 N GDP 30 NE ALM 20 E SAF 45 WSW RTN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE FMY 30 SSE AGR 30 NNE AGR 40 NW AGR 55 S GNV JAX 15 E SAV 10 SE FLO 25 NE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PFN 25 ESE PFN 50 NE MCN AVL SHD ABE 10 W ALB 25 N PBG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW RAL 15 NNE LAX 30 NE SBA 25 SSW BFL 55 NNE BFL 50 SSW TVL 35 SE MFR DLS PUW 10 SE 27U ENV 15 NNW MLF 15 N PGA 20 NNE GUP 4SL DEN SNY IML 10 SE GCK GAG SPS MWL BWD BGS P07 25 SSE P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO.... ...EASTERN SEABOARD... HIGH AMPLITUDE LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS JUST EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. WHILE MOST SIGNIFICANT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS NOW ACCELERATING ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE IS EVIDENT DIGGING TOWARD BASE OF TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONTINUING NORTH NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF HURRICANE CHARLEY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. CENTER OF CIRCULATION WILL PROGRESS NORTH/EAST OF ORLANDO INTO FLORIDA ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS NEAR/NORTH OF DAYTONA BEACH BY 03-04Z...BEFORE PROGRESSING OFFSHORE. RISK OF TORNADOES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DIMINISH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL TORNADIC ACTIVITY NORTH/EAST OF CIRCULATION AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TOWARD DAYBREAK SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH...REMNANTS OF BONNIE WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE RHODE ISLAND/EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...CAPE COD AREA BETWEEN 03-06Z. GIVEN MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 70F DEW POINTS AND WEAK CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION...AT LEAST LOW RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST WITH THIS FEATURE. ...WESTERN STATES... MOIST ENVIRONMENT SOUTH/EAST OF MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN /NORTHERN ROCKIES HAS SUPPORTED NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME HEATING/OROGRAPHIC FORCING. ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN STRONGEST CELLS ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO... PARTICULARLY WHERE INSTABILITY IS GREATEST ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO...AND MUCH OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA. THEREAFTER...ACTIVITY SHOULD GENERALLY WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONGOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS...PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 05:35:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 00:35:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408140535.i7E5Z3V06871@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 140533 SWODY1 SPC AC 140531 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1231 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 141200Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 10 S FLO RDU 20 E BWI 10 SSE POU BDL 25 NE EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 E AKO 20 NE GLD DDC 20 NW GAG AMA TCC RTN COS 10 E AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK 30 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 15 E RAL 25 NW RAL 25 SW PMD 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 30 NE BFL 25 ESE FAT 30 NE MER 40 ENE SAC 45 SW SVE 25 SE MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 ENE 4BK 35 E OTH ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 4OM 30 SE EPH 45 ESE ALW 80 NNE BOI 50 NNE SUN PIH 45 NNE EVW 40 SSE RKS 20 S RWL 55 N DGW 45 N RAP 40 N PIR 30 SW HON 30 E BUB 35 S HSI 15 SSE SLN 20 NNW PNC 20 NNW OKC 45 S ADM 25 SSE DAL 10 WNW VCT 40 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 35 W MCN 40 ESE CHA 20 S 5I3 35 WSW EKN 45 WSW DCA 35 ESE CXY 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY FROM SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... MODELS INDICATE UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO BECOME LESS AMPLIFIED DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE RIDGING WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN U.S...WHILE BROAD CYCLONIC REGIME PREVAILS OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES. IN CONFLUENCE BETWEEN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH AND DOWNSTREAM NORTH CENTRAL ATLANTIC RIDGE...HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL GRADUALLY ACCELERATE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD UP ATLANTIC COAST AREAS...SLOWLY WEAKENING IN MORE STRONGLY SHEARED/SLIGHTLY COOLER ENVIRONMENT. ...EASTERN SEABOARD... POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL PERSIST IN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH CHARLEY...PRIMARILY NEAR/NORTH AND EAST OF CIRCULATION CENTER. HIGHEST RISK APPEARS TO BE DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS AS VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MID/UPPER 70S DEW POINTS ADVECTS INLAND FROM PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH EXTREME SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. TROPICAL ENVIRONMENT MAY REMAIN OFFSHORE FARTHER NORTH...BUT AT LEAST RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS MAY PERSIST WITH STRONGER CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF SYSTEM INTO LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY EARLY SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM...SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/ GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOIST ENVIRONMENT ALONG/EAST OF THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL U.S... MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. AIR MASS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY MOIST TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS FEATURE...AND WILL AGAIN BECOME SUPPORTIVE OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS AS HIGHER TERRAIN HEATS DURING THE MID DAY AND AFTERNOON HOURS. A WEAK IMPULSE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW...WILL APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...A SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN RIDGE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...FROM PARTS OF EASTERN OREGON/WESTERN AND SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN NEVADA AND NORTHWEST ARIZONA. THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT OVER A FAIRLY BROAD AREA OF THE WEST WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED VIGOROUS STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR MICROBURSTS AND SOME HAIL. SOMEWHAT BETTER SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP EAST OF RIDGE AXIS...IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. WARM ADVECTION REGIME BENEATH CYCLONIC NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR SUPERCELLS BY LATE AFTERNOON. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG ALONG AN AXIS FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY PEAK HEATING. THIS WILL SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH PRIMARY THREAT OF LARGE HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 12:45:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 07:45:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408141245.i7ECj3V27057@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141243 SWODY1 SPC AC 141241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 141300Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ENE SAV 15 SW SOP 55 WSW RIC 30 NE BWI 10 SSE POU BDL 25 NE EWB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 WSW CDR 50 NW MHN 25 WNW LBF LBL 20 ESE AMA 15 NNW CVS 25 SE LVS 40 W TAD 10 NW CYS 45 WSW CDR. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK 30 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 35 W MCN 40 ESE CHA 20 S 5I3 35 WSW EKN 45 WSW DCA 35 ESE CXY 15 W POU BAF 10 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNE 4OM 30 SE EPH 45 ESE ALW 80 NNE BOI 50 NNE SUN PIH 45 NNE EVW 40 SSE RKS 20 S RWL 55 N DGW 45 N RAP 40 N PIR 30 SW HON OFK 20 NNW PNC 20 NNW OKC 45 S ADM 25 SSE DAL 10 WNW VCT 40 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 15 E RAL 25 NW RAL 25 SW PMD 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 30 NE BFL 25 ESE FAT 30 NE MER 40 ENE SAC 45 SW SVE 25 SE MHS 40 ESE CEC 25 ENE 4BK 35 E OTH 25 N OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE INTER-MOUNTAIN REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS DOWNSTREAM TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST COAST. THIS SUBTLE SHIFT IN THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL ALLOW A BIT MORE INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITHIN NWLY WARM ADVECTION REGIME. DESPITE THE RECENT SUPPRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE PLAINS...IT APPEARS SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL RETURN ACROSS ERN CO INTO THE NEB PANHANDLE FOR ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...SLY LLJ WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED FROM WRN KS INTO WRN NEB WHICH WILL AID LATE AFTERNOON...AND ESPECIALLY EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS REGION SUGGEST THERMAL PROFILES ARE ADEQUATELY COOL THROUGH A DEEP LAYER TO ALLOW SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG TO DEVELOP BY PEAK HEATING. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION...IT APPEARS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL EVOLVE THEN PROPAGATE SWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS. LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT. ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND... HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL SOON MOVE INLAND ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST AS IT MOVES QUICKLY NNEWD TOWARD DELAWARE. THIS EXPECTED TRACK WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING WIND FIELDS AND A LIMITED AREA...MAINLY COASTAL REGIONS FROM NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...EXPOSED TO FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS. 12Z SOUNDING FROM MHX SUPPORTS THIS THREAT WITH A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...SBCAPE OF ROUGHLY 1700J/KG...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES INLAND. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 16:34:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 11:34:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408141634.i7EGY7V32574@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141632 SWODY1 SPC AC 141630 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 141630Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW ILM 25 WSW GSB RIC 30 ENE BWI 25 NNW EWR 15 S BDL 15 WSW HYA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S BFF 55 ENE SNY 35 SSE GLD 45 ENE DHT 35 SW DHT 45 S RTN 40 W TAD 15 SSW CYS 10 S BFF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 15 E RAL 25 NW RAL 25 SW PMD 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 50 S BIH 20 SSW TVL 25 S MHS 45 NW MHS 25 W MFR 35 E OTH 25 N OTH ...CONT... 50 NNE 63S 25 NE GEG 40 ENE LWS 40 ESE S80 50 W COD 10 N BPI 30 SSE DPG 55 NNE BCE 35 SSW MTJ 40 W LAR 50 WSW RAP 30 W PIR 20 WNW MHE 15 SSE OFK 15 SE ICT 30 N OKC 40 SW DUA 35 W TPL 15 E HDO 25 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 25 SSW MCN 35 WNW AND 40 SSW PSK 25 SSW SHD 35 WSW DCA ABE 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK 40 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NC TO SRN NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.... ...ATLANTIC COAST... THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL MOVE QUICKLY NNEWD FROM ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON TO NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY E OF THE PATH OF CHARLEY...THERE WILL BE SOME THREAT FOR RAIN BAND SUPERCELLS AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES. THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT GREATER THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE ERN NC AREA COMPARED TO AREAS FARTHER N...MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE SPECIFIC STORM TRACK AND THE ARRIVAL OF THE STORM DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM CHESAPEAKE BAY NWD. ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S HAVE SPREAD NWD ACROSS ERN CO INTO PARTS OF THE NEB PANHANDLE. THOUGH LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WERE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP IN THE REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS...DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. A CONTINUATION OF NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW AND SLY/SELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A THREAT OF WIDELY SCATTERED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE FOCUSED MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 14 19:55:36 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 14:55:36 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408141955.i7EJt1V27062@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 141952 SWODY1 SPC AC 141950 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0250 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 142000Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE BFF 25 ESE AIA 40 SSE GLD 60 SSE EHA 30 NNE TCC 20 NW LVS 25 SW COS 15 SSW CYS 10 NE BFF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ENE ILM 20 W GSB 10 ESE RIC 30 ENE BWI 25 NNW EWR 20 S BDL 15 WSW HYA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 20 ENE RAL 25 NW RAL 30 NNW LAX 20 NNW OXR 40 SSW BFL 25 SE BFL 55 ESE FAT 20 SSW TVL 25 S MHS 45 NW MHS 25 W MFR 35 E OTH 25 N OTH ...CONT... 35 NNE 63S 25 NE GEG 40 ENE LWS 40 ESE S80 50 W COD 10 N BPI 30 SSE DPG 55 NNE BCE MTJ 40 W LAR 50 WSW RAP 30 W PIR 20 WNW MHE 15 SSE OFK 15 SE ICT 30 N OKC 40 SW DUA 35 W TPL 15 E HDO 25 S CRP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE RRT 45 NNE GFK 40 WNW DVL 10 NE ISN 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN 15 N ABY 15 N AHN 40 W GSO 25 SSW SHD 35 WSW DCA ABE 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN NC THROUGH THE COASTAL MID ATLANTIC AREA... ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS WERE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS INCLUDING THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM AS WELL AS ALONG SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES. SURFACE HEATING AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S BELOW MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG. PRESENCE OF LEE TROUGH WILL MAINTAIN SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW BELOW NWLY FLOW OF 20-30 KT AT 6 KM... CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR UPDRAFTS TO ROTATE. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING AS STORMS MOVE SSEWD. ...NERN NC THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA AND SRN PARTS OF NE U.S... REMNANTS OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WILL ACCELERATE NEWD TONIGHT THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES ON THE NERN QUADRANT OF THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE CENTER MOVES N OF NC...PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE NEAR COSTAL AREAS OF THE MID ATLANTIC OR JUST OFFSHORE TO THE E OF THE PROJECTED TRACK OF THE CENTER. LATE TONIGHT CHARLEY SHOULD MOVE INTO PARTS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND. OVERALL LIMITING FACTOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MARGINAL INSTABILITY. SEE LATEST DISCUSSIONS FROM NHC FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON CHARLEY. ..DIAL.. 08/14/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 00:53:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 14 Aug 2004 19:53:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408150053.i7F0rMV10473@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150050 SWODY1 SPC AC 150048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SAT AUG 14 2004 VALID 150100Z - 151200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE AKO 10 WSW GLD 40 SSE GLD 20 W CDS 10 ENE LBB 35 NE CVS LHX LIC 25 SE AKO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CZZ 35 W TRM 10 S PMD 30 E BFL 55 ESE FAT 20 SSW TVL MHS MFR 35 E OTH 15 SSW AST ...CONT... 35 NNE 63S 25 NE GEG 40 ENE LWS 35 ESE S80 55 ESE WEY 40 SW COD RIW 35 WNW RKS EVW 10 S OGD 35 NNE U24 4HV 45 S MTJ GUC 20 NNE 4FC 20 NE LAR 45 WSW CDR 50 WNW VTN VTN BUB 45 NNE HLC HLC DDC GAG LTS SJT 45 ESE P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE PFN MCN 45 SSE AND 10 E CLT 30 W RDU 55 N RWI RIC 35 NNE RIC BWI ABE 30 SE MSV BDL 25 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNE DVL 55 WNW MOT 35 N OLF 50 NNW GGW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EARLY THIS EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE S CNTRL HIGH PLAINS.... ...EASTERN SEABOARD... CIRCULATION CENTER OF CHARLEY IS MIGRATING OFF THE SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COAST...AND APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE NORTH NORTHEASTWARD TRACK NEAR NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FURTHER WEAKENING WILL OCCUR IN SLIGHTLY COOLER/LESS MOIST AND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...AHEAD OF LARGE-SCALE TROUGH WHICH REMAINS CENTERED ALONG AN AXIS NEAR/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER. TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH LONG ISLAND/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...WITH AT LEAST LOW RISK OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR DAMAGING WIND GUST IN STRONGEST CONVECTION. WITH UPPER TROUGH AXIS STILL UPSTREAM...SURFACE FRONT HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL CAROLINAS/GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS EAST OF FRONT HAS SUPPORTED EXTENSIVE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...WITH NEWER DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA. FLORIDA STORMS ARE ALREADY WINDING DOWN...AND ACTIVITY TO THE NORTH SHOULD DO LIKEWISE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES... MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR BENEATH NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME HAS ENHANCED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE ONGOING...BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST ALSO APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY DIURNAL IN NATURE. WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST /ROTATING AROUND NORTHEAST PACIFIC CLOSED LOW/...STORMS IN THE LEE OF THE OREGON CASCADES MAY BE SLOWEST TO WEAKEN. THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE RISK OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS THROUGH 03-04Z IN ENVIRONMENT WHERE VERY DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HAS DEVELOP WITH STRONG HEATING. **FOR MORE SPECIFIC INFORMATION CONCERNING ONOING OR IMMINENT CONVECTIVE THREATS PLEASE REFER TO LATEST SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS /SPCSWOMCD/. ..KERR.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 05:37:24 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 00:37:24 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408150536.i7F5aqV19189@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 150534 SWODY1 SPC AC 150532 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 40 ENE TVF 45 E BJI 50 E BRD 10 NE MSP SPW SUX MHN 10 SSW CDR RAP MBG BIS 10 SE DIK 10 SSE ISN 75 NE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 45 W RHI 15 E LSE 10 SW P35 30 ENE CNU 15 NNE MKO 15 E MLC 10 SW DAL 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 ESE EDW 55 N BFL 25 WSW TVL 25 NNW SVE 30 SSE LMT 20 SE MFR 40 NNW MFR 10 S PDX 45 E AST 25 S UIL ...CONT... 45 N FCA 3DU 40 NNE WEY 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW 40 WSW RWL 40 S RWL 40 NW LAR 20 NNW DGW 45 NE 81V 50 NNE REJ 45 E GDV 25 WNW SDY 60 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 25 E ABY 40 E LGC 35 N GAD 60 N CSV 30 NW HTS 25 ENE CMH 40 N CLE ...CONT... 15 W MSS 25 S BTV 20 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTN/EVE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... TREND TOWARD SLIGHTLY LESS AMPLIFIED UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT MODELS SUGGEST BROAD TROUGHING WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN STATES...WITH WEAK RIDGE IN THE WEST. REMNANTS OF CHARLEY WILL ACCELERATE EAST NORTHEASTWARD FROM CAPE COD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...ON NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC RIDGE. MEANWHILE...CLOSED LOW WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...TO THE SOUTH OF BLOCKING RIDGE OVER ALASKA. ...CENTRAL STATES... EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGE-SCALE UPPER FLOW REGIME...A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DIGGING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN FORECASTING THIS SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE PEAK HEATING HOURS TODAY...THEN EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY EARLY MONDAY. MID-LEVEL COLD POOL /500 MB TEMPS TO AROUND -15C/ AND 40 KT CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL JET ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION SUFFICIENT FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THOUGH ENVIRONMENT IS CURRENTLY RATHER DRY...AT LEAST NARROW TONGUE OF MID 50S DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD OUT OF THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH...INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN CONJUNCTION WITH MID-LEVEL FORCING AND STRONG DAYTIME HEATING...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG LIKELY WILL DEVELOP. ISOLATED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS MID DAY IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER/CORE OF MID-LEVEL COLD POOL ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HOWEVER...PRIMARY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY INITIATE AFTER 15/21Z...AS INHIBITION WEAKENS EAST OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...EAST OF PIERRE SD. LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS PROGGED TO STRENGTH ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY THREAT...AS ACTIVITY INCREASES AND SPREADS EASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...SEVERE THREAT LIKELY WILL DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING...AS MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WEAKENS WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ...WESTERN STATES... MOISTURE SOUTH AND WEST OF UPPER RIDGE WILL AGAIN CONTRIBUTE TO ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WIDESPREAD CONVECTION MAY LIMIT MAGNITUDE OF DESTABILIZATION AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...IN WAKE OF A MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS EMBEDDED WITHIN RIDGE...STRONG HEATING APPEARS LIKELY IN THE LEE OF THE OREGON CASCADES. MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...DESPITE WEAK FLOW/SHEAR REGIME. ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS...PERHAPS AIDED BY WEAKLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW...MAY PRODUCE SOME HAIL/STRONG DOWNBURSTS. ...EASTERN STATES... MOIST UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT NEAR SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS LIKELY ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...AIDED BY FORCING ALONG SEA BREEZES. WEAKLY SHEARED TROPICAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SEEMS TO MARGINALIZE SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH FAIRLY LARGE CAPE AND HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS. SOMEWHAT BETTER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY APPEARS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. CAPE LIKELY WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 1000 J/KG...BUT MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR...AND MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO WITH HAIL/GUSTY WINDS. ..KERR/JEWELL.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 12:46:05 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 07:46:05 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408151245.i7FCjbV13203@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151243 SWODY1 SPC AC 151242 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0742 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 151300Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW DVL 30 NNW GFK 35 NE BJI 40 E BRD 25 NNE FRM 15 S OFK 20 WSW MCK 20 NE AKO 15 WSW BFF 35 SSE RAP 25 NNE MBG 30 SW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE ELO 45 W RHI 15 E LSE 10 SW P35 30 ENE CNU 15 NNE MKO 15 E MLC 10 SW DAL 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 15 WSW CZZ 25 ESE EDW 55 N BFL 25 WSW TVL 25 NNW SVE 30 SSE LMT 20 SE MFR 40 NNW MFR 10 S PDX 45 E AST 25 S UIL ...CONT... 45 N FCA 3DU 40 NNE WEY 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW 40 WSW RWL 40 S RWL 40 NW LAR 20 NNW DGW 45 NE 81V 50 NNE REJ 45 E GDV 25 WNW SDY 60 N OLF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TLH 25 E ABY 40 E LGC 35 N GAD 60 N CSV 30 NW HTS 25 ENE CMH 40 N CLE ...CONT... 15 W MSS 25 S BTV 20 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN ND/MN INTO NERN CO... ...NRN/CNTRL PLAINS... EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS UPPER VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN CANADA...DROPPING SEWD IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THIS FEATURE SHOULD MOVE SEWD ACROSS ERN ND INTO MN LATE IN THE PERIOD AS 30-60M HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF SFC FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL/WRN DAKOTAS BY LATE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE DEVELOPMENT GIVEN THE MARGINAL MOISTURE IN PLACE ACROSS THIS REGION. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE ERN DAKOTAS...INITIALLY ROOTED WITHIN/NEAR THE BOUNDARY LAYER. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL. WITH TIME...THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED WITHIN STRONGER ZONE OF ASCENT ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS INTO MN THIS EVENING. FARTHER SW...SFC FRONT MAY AID IN GENERATING DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NERN CO. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROVE ISOLATED...BUT WITHIN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR STORM ORGANIZATION. THESE STORMS WOULD PROPAGATE SHARPLY SSWWD DOWN THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG THE STRONGEST AXIS OF INSTABILITY. HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION. ...PACIFIC NW... SEVERAL WEAK VORT MAXIMA WILL LIFT NEWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW DURING THE PERIOD. THESE FEATURES WILL LOCALLY ENHANCE UPDRAFT POTENTIAL WITHIN A THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON WHEN LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 9 C/KM EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS...HOWEVER ACTIVITY MAY PROVE TOO MARGINAL AND SPARSE TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 16:34:41 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 11:34:41 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408151634.i7FGYFV11837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 151631 SWODY1 SPC AC 151629 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1129 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 151630Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DVL 30 NNW GFK 10 NE BJI BRD 25 NW MKT 25 W SPW 10 NNE LBF 40 SE AIA 20 E CDR 35 N PHP 25 NNE MBG 20 SSW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NW HVR 40 S GTF 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW 25 WNW RWL 20 ESE RWL 50 NNW LAR 65 SSE 81V 25 S Y22 25 ESE SDY 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU 15 E LSE 55 WNW LWD 20 S MHK 50 SSE PNC 20 NE ADM 15 NNE FTW 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL 35 N RAL 10 N EDW 35 ENE BFL 35 WSW TVL 40 NE RBL 25 ENE MHS 20 SE MFR 50 N MFR 15 NE PDX 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25 E ABY 30 SSW ATL 25 NNE CHA 25 ESE LOZ 25 NW HTS 25 NE DAY 30 ENE LAF 20 SSW AZO 15 E DTW ...CONT... 15 W MSS 10 E MPV 20 SSW PWM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS.... ...NRN PLAINS... 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING SEWD FROM SRN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TOWARD THE DAKOTAS/MN. IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM...LOW-LEVEL SLY/SWLY FLOW IS INCREASING FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NWD/NEWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS/MN. EXPECT BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TO SPREAD NEWD AS FAR AS NE SD/WRN MN BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS ALSO REVEALED 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN THE 850-500 MB LAYER OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND A PORTION OF THIS LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL SPREAD EWD OVER THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG FROM NE CO TO SE SD BY THIS EVENING INVOF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH. A BROKEN BAND OF ONGOING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST TODAY ACROSS ND IN ASSOCIATION WITH MID LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS AND DIFFERENTIAL PVA. STRONGER SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ACROSS SD WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED AND DAYTIME HEATING/ASCENT ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WEAKEN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD THEN INCREASE ACROSS ERN SD INTO WRN MN DURING THE EVENING AS THE REGION OF STRONGER ASCENT WITH THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE INSTABILITY AXIS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE INSTABILITY AXIS APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE SEVERE THREAT GRADUALLY DIMINISHES LATER TONIGHT. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 15 20:06:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 15:06:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408152006.i7FK6PV08334@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 152001 SWODY1 SPC AC 151958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 152000Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW DVL 25 NNW GFK 10 NE BJI 15 SSE BRD 30 NNW MKT 20 E OTG 20 SE YKN 10 NNE LBF 20 NNE SNY 60 E DGW 40 WNW PIR 20 SSW DVL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL 35 N RAL 10 N EDW 35 ENE BFL 35 WSW TVL 40 NE RBL 25 ENE MHS 20 SE MFR 50 N MFR 15 NE PDX 25 NE BLI ...CONT... 50 NW HVR 40 S GTF 35 W WRL 35 ESE RIW 25 WNW RWL 20 ESE RWL 20 NW DGW 60 NE DGW 25 S Y22 25 ESE SDY 70 NW ISN ...CONT... 55 ENE ELO 55 NNE EAU 15 E LSE 55 WNW LWD 20 S MHK 50 SSE PNC 20 NE ADM 15 NNE FTW 30 SSW SEP 20 NNE JCT 30 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM AQQ 25 E ABY ATL 25 SSW TYS 35 ESE 5I3 30 E PKB 30 SE MIE 30 ENE LAF 25 SE AZO 10 WSW MTC ...CONT... 20 WSW MSS 15 WNW RUT 15 SSW EWB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...NRN PLAINS REGION... WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING SEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD AHEAD OF STRONG MID-LEVEL LOW / VORT MAX NOW MOVING SSEWD INTO NRN ND. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY -- FROM SRN SD WSWWD INTO SERN WY -- WHERE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 DEWPOINTS HAVE ALLOWED 500 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE TO DEVELOP. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG BOUNDARY FROM ERN ND SWWD INTO SERN WY / NERN CO AS UPPER FEATURE APPROACHES. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS EVENING / OVERNIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO PARTS OF MN / IA AND LATER WI AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION INCREASES. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD FROM SRN SD WSWWD -- WHERE CONVECTION IS NOW DEVELOPING -- IS RELATIVELY WEAK...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER N AND E...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH MID-LEVEL FEATURE SPREADS SEWD. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOMEWHAT MORE NUMEROUS SEVERE REPORTS...THOUGH THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL -- LIMITED BY RELATIVELY WEAK INSTABILITY ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS THE MID MO / UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/15/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 01:00:03 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 15 Aug 2004 20:00:03 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408160059.i7G0xcV23268@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160057 SWODY1 SPC AC 160055 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0755 PM CDT SUN AUG 15 2004 VALID 160100Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E BIS 55 NE MOT 60 NNW TVF 35 SW HIB 40 NNW MKT 40 NW BBW 20 N GLD 35 NE LIC 15 NNW DEN 35 E CDR 20 N ATY 15 E BIS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N FCA BTM 35 ESE WEY WRL RWL LAR 30 S PHP 20 S ABR BIS 50 NNW MOT ...CONT... 90 E ELO 50 W RHI LNR 45 N CNK ICT 25 SSE CSM MWL 35 S BWD 30 NW DRT ...CONT... 10 W CZZ 25 ESE RAL EDW 40 NW TVL 35 WNW SVE LMT RDM 40 W YKM 65 WNW 4OM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM PFN 25 SW AGS 45 SW FLO RDU RIC PHL 10 WSW AVP 40 ENE UCA 15 ESE GFL 15 E GON. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ND/MN SWWD INTO CO... ...CENTRAL PLAINS... WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL SD WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD INTO EXTREME NERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY PROVIDED THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE FORCING IS WEAK...VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD SUSTAIN A THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND INSTABILITY AXIS ALONG THE KS/CO BORDER ALSO SUPPORTS STRONG/SEVERE STORMS IN WRN NEB MOVING INTO NERN CO LATER THIS EVENING. ...ND/MN... WV IMAGERY INDICATES UPPER LOW...WITH -14 TO -16C 500 MB TEMPERATURES...WAS LOCATED IN ND THIS EVENING. CLUSTER OF STORMS WERE LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP TOWARD CENTRAL MN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SEWD AND LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS. DESPITE THE SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...STEEP LAPSE RATES...RESULTING IN MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. ...SERN CO/SWRN KS AND OK/TX PANHANDLES... STORMS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO INITIATE IN THIS AREA...THOUGH PRESENCE OF WEAK BOUNDARIES AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET MAY AID IN A FEW STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AMA EVENING SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE WITH 2000 J/KG AND THE STRONG DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WAS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...WITH WEAK FORCING...ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ARE EXPECTED...SO ONLY A 5% PROBABILITY FOR HAIL IS FORECAST. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST... ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS ALOFT ARE WEAK...MOIST VERTICAL PROFILES WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED WIND OR SEVERE HAIL EVENTS. HOWEVER...THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER SHOULD AID IN THE STORMS WEAKENING QUICKER TONIGHT THAN THEY DID SATURDAY NIGHT. ..IMY.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 05:15:20 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 00:15:20 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408160514.i7G5ErV01695@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 160512 SWODY1 SPC AC 160509 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1209 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 161200Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LIC 15 NNE MCK 25 NE OFK RWF 25 NNW MKT ALO 30 SW OTM 15 SW STJ 30 NE SLN 55 SSW HLC 10 W LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N BML 15 SSE PSM ...CONT... 40 SSW WAL 35 SSW NHK 30 SW MRB 20 E ERI 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 15 WNW AQQ 15 NE DHN 20 ENE TOI 15 NNW MGM 10 SSE TCL 30 N TCL 20 WSW HSV 35 SW CHA 45 E RMG 35 WNW AGS 35 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW CTB 20 WNW GTF 35 SSE GTF 3HT 45 SW BIL 20 SE RIW 30 WNW RWL LAR 15 SW SNY 15 W LBF 15 NNW BUB 15 SE 9V9 15 S JMS 15 SSE GFK RRT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX 80 WNW CMX 45 N IWD 40 W CMX MQT 55 E ESC 20 NW HTL 45 NNE GRR 10 SW MVN 55 SE HRO 15 N TXK 15 N DUA 55 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 70 SSW GBN 50 WSW GBN 30 ESE BLH 45 SW EED 35 ENE DAG 15 NNE NID 50 E FAT 60 S TVL 20 ESE TVL 35 SE SVE 25 ESE MHS MFR 15 ESE SLE 45 SSE OLM 20 N SEA 15 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN ERN ND...SHOULD WEAKEN AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON. AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MN SWWD INTO NERN NEB...AND THEN STRETCH WSWWD INTO NERN CO. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM ORE SEWD INTO AZ/NM. ...MID MO RIVER VALLEY... ONGOING CONVECTION OVER ERN SD/SRN MN IS EXPECTED TO CONGEAL INTO AN MCS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MN/WI BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL THEN SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES...BUT STORMS SHOULD GENERALLY MOVE THROUGH AN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY...WITH A LIMITED SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STRONG INSOLATION DURING MOST OF THE DAY IS EXPECTED TO WARM THE MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. MLCAPES FROM 2000-3000 J/KG ARE PROGGED AND STRONG VEERING WIND PROFILES SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH HAIL AND MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND EVENTS. THE STORMS MAY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...WITH THE SYSTEM MOVING SEWD INTO NERN KS/MO AS THE LOW LEVEL JET VEERS. THE UPPER FORCING IS FORECAST TO BE WEAK AND MID LEVEL FLOW AT 20 KT SUGGESTING THE MCS WOULD LIKELY BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE. ...S CENTRAL NEB/NWRN KS/ERN CO... INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE WEAKER ACROSS THIS REGION THAN ACROSS THE MID MO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPER. STRONG HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS AND A RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM 21-03Z. ...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND SWRN STATES... THE COMBINATION OF A WEAK UPPER TROUGH AND MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAK...THE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT A FEW REPORTS OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL ACROSS THIS LARGE AREA. ..IMY.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 12:51:07 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 07:51:07 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408161251.i7GCpAV05914@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161248 SWODY1 SPC AC 161245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 161300Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 W LIC 15 SE AKO 30 SSE LBF 25 ENE GRI 30 SW SUX 35 E BKX 15 N RWF 25 SSW MSP 15 N ALO 40 WSW OTM 20 ENE TOP 35 SSW RSL 35 NNW LAA 10 W LIC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSW WAL 35 SSW NHK 30 SW MRB 20 E ERI 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 55 N BML 15 SSE PSM ...CONT... 15 WNW AQQ 15 NE DHN 20 ENE TOI 15 NNW MGM 10 SSE TCL 30 N TCL 20 WSW HSV 35 SW CHA 45 E RMG 35 WNW AGS 35 ENE SAV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 50 WSW GBN 30 ESE BLH 45 SW EED 35 ENE DAG 15 NNE NID 50 E FAT 60 S TVL 20 ESE TVL 35 SE SVE 25 ESE MHS MFR 15 ESE SLE 45 SSE OLM 20 N SEA 15 NE BLI ...CONT... 40 NNE HVR 25 WNW HVR 50 SW HVR 35 NNW 3HT 45 SW BIL 20 SE RIW 30 WNW RWL LAR 15 SW SNY 15 W LBF 15 NNW BUB 15 SE 9V9 15 S JMS 15 SSE GFK RRT ...CONT... 80 NNW CMX 80 WNW CMX 45 N IWD 40 W CMX MQT 55 E ESC 20 NW HTL 45 NNE GRR 10 SW MVN 55 SE HRO 15 N TXK 15 N DUA 55 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...MID MS VALLEY TO CENTRAL PLAINS... VEERED LOW LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION APPEAR PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR ONGOING CONVECTION ACROSS SRN MN INTO NRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SEWD AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE...SFC FRONT WILL LAG UPPER SHORTWAVE SOMEWHAT BUT LIKELY PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN FUTURE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS HEATING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...ALONG WITH FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT IN GENERATING LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM THIS REGION SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH VERTICAL MIXING AND SBCAPE VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 2500 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. DEEP LAYER VEERING AND SPEED SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35KT SUGGEST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR FROM ERN NEB INTO IA WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN KS INTO NERN CO. ...GREAT BASIN/INTER MOUNTAIN REGION... EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS A MOISTENING UPPER VORT MAX ALONG THE CA/NV BORDER SOUTH OF RNO. THIS FEATURE IS WELL DEFINED AND APPEARS TO BE AIDING LARGE SCALE ASCENT/MOISTENING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN WHERE SCATTERED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED. 12Z SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS WITH MOST UA SITES DEPICTING AROUND ONE INCH PRECIPITABLE WATER. BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. GIVEN EARLY MORNING CLOUD COVER THERE IS SOME CONCERN AFTERNOON HEATING MAY NOT ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. WILL MONITOR CLOUD TRENDS ACROSS THIS REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FOR POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK. ..DARROW/JEWELL.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 16:37:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 11:37:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408161637.i7GGbOV12111@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 161635 SWODY1 SPC AC 161633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 161630Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE OLU 10 N SUX 40 E BKX 25 N RWF 20 W MSP 20 SSE RST 35 W CID 10 NNE LWD FNB 15 SSE LNK 25 NE OLU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE YUM 35 S DAG 55 N NID 65 SSE TVL 55 SSW SVE 25 SSE MFR 55 SSE EUG 15 NNW BLI ...CONT... 90 NW GGW 30 NE MLS 30 NW 4BQ 35 SSW SHR 35 NNE RWL 35 NNW AKO 25 E LBF 45 ENE BUB 30 WSW YKN 40 SE 9V9 35 NNE 9V9 20 E ABR 45 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45 ESE ANJ 50 W MBS 35 S DEC 20 SE FSM 15 NNW PRX 45 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 30 E RIC 20 E LYH 15 WNW ROA 35 NNW SSU 30 W MGW 30 SW JHW 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 30 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 25 ENE GAD 50 ENE RMG 30 N AHN 40 ESE AGS 35 ENE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB TO SRN MN.... ...SRN MN TO KS AREA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND MORNING UPPER AIR ANALYSES CONFIRM THAT A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING SEWD OVER ERN MN/CENTRAL IA...WITH A SECONDARY LOBE OVER CENTRAL KS. THESE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS AND ASSOCIATED BANDS OF ASCENT ARE MOVING SE OF THE PRIMARY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AXES...WITH A WEAKER UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVING SEWD OVER THE DAKOTAS/NEB. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE RESIDUAL SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM SW MN TO ERN NEB...WHERE THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SPEED SHEAR WITH 30-50 KT NWLY FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE WEAKER TO THE SW ACROSS KS...WHERE MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS MAY DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON FROM SW INTO CENTRAL KS. ...SRN NV TO SRN AZ AREA... SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TWO DISTINCT MID LEVEL VORTICITY CENTERS WITHIN A BROAD NW-SE SHEAR AXIS...ONE OVER CA/NV BORDER AND THE OTHER OVER SE AZ. MID LEVEL NWLY FLOW IS ENHANCED ON THE W SIDE OF EACH VORTICITY CENTER /20-30 KT/...WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS /12Z DRA AND 14Z TUS/ BOTH SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY BE ABLE TO PRODUCE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW STRONG GUSTS...AND SOME PORTION OF EITHER THE SRN NV OR S CENTRAL/SE AZ AREA MAY STILL NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE. ...PA/NY AREA... A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -16 C WILL MOVE OVER CENTRAL PA AND WRN/CENTRAL NY THIS AFTERNOON. THOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT MARGINAL OVER THIS AREA...THE COOL MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAY SUPPORT A THREAT OF SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 16 20:07:33 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 15:07:33 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408162007.i7GK79V07781@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 162002 SWODY1 SPC AC 161959 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0259 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 162000Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE YKN 30 N YKN 35 E BKX 15 SE RWF 40 WSW RST 20 E ALO 35 N OTM 25 S DSM 20 ESE OMA 25 WNW OMA 30 SSE YKN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW EED 60 SSW LAS 20 W DRA 65 WNW P38 15 ENE P38 55 SE SGU 50 NW PRC 10 WSW EED. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E POU 15 N EWR 35 ESE AVP 15 NNE AVP 35 ENE BGM 35 E UCA 15 NE ALB 20 E POU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 90 NW GGW 30 NE MLS 30 NW 4BQ 35 SSW SHR 35 NNE RWL 35 NNW AKO 25 E LBF 45 ENE BUB 55 WSW YKN 30 WSW MHE 35 NNE HON 30 SSE JMS 45 ESE RRT ...CONT... 45 ESE ANJ 50 W MBS 35 S DEC 20 SE FSM 15 NNW PRX 45 N ABI 25 SE MAF 15 S P07 ...CONT... 15 SSE YUM 35 WSW PMD 60 NNW NID 65 SSE TVL 55 SSW SVE 25 SSE MFR 55 SSE EUG 15 NNW BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE ORF 30 E RIC 20 E LYH 15 WNW ROA 35 NNW SSU 30 W MGW 30 SW JHW 50 NNW JHW ...CONT... 60 NNW 3B1 30 ESE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E PNS 25 ENE GAD 50 ENE RMG 30 N AHN 40 ESE AGS 35 ENE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF SWRN MN AND WRN IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN NV/NWRN AZ AND EXTREME SWRN UT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A SMALL PART OF THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY OF NY...NRN NJ AND NERN PA... ...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... STRONG INSTABILITY WAS DEVELOPING IN THE WAKE OF MORNING STORMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NEB/WRN IA AND SWRN MN. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INVOF SFC LOW AND FRONT ACROSS SWRN MN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND THEN DRIFT S/SEWD INTO IA. ACTIVITY WILL BE FURTHER SUSTAINED BY WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE DAKOTAS. WEAK SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY ABOUT 30KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW LARGE HAIL REPORTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE HIGH WIND EVENTS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN KS... SOMEWHAT WEAKER LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR UPWARD MOTION ACROSS THIS REGION. HOWEVER...A NUMBER OF SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS ACTIVITY CAN DEVELOP...PRESENCE OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK TO MARGINAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW STRONG TO ISOLD SEVERE STORMS. GIVEN STRONG DIURNAL FORCING...EXPECT STORMS TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AFTER DARK. ...SRN NV/NWRN AZ... BELT OF STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW WITHIN BASE OF WELL DEFINED UPPER VORTEX WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST ACROSS INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY AND SRN NV THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A NUMBER OF STRONG TSTMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED AND ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF/SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LOW. WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30KT...SEVERAL STORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW DAMAGING DOWNDRAFTS. ...SERN AZ/SWRN NM... SITUATION ACROSS THE DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS OF SERN AZ AND SWRN NM THIS AFTERNOON IS SIMILAR TO FARTHER NW. WEAKER IMPULSE AND MID LEVEL FLOW...BUT STRONG INSTABILITY AND WEAK CAP...WAS RESULTING IN NUMEROUS STORMS OF MULTICELL/PULSE NATURE. GIVEN SOMEWHAT WEAKER SHEAR AND SLIGHTLY WARMER MID LEVEL TEMPS...EXPECT ONLY ISOLD SEVERE WEATHER...DESPITE WIDESPREAD STORM COVERAGE. ...SERN NY/NERN PA/NRN NJ... MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THROUGH EVENING. STRONGEST SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM NERN PA/NRN NJ...ACROSS SERN NY AND MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG WAS FEEDING INTO TSTM ACTIVITY NOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE CATSKILLS. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE DEVELOPING TOWARD AN AREA OF SLIGHTLY GREATER SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40KT. GIVEN FAVORABLE ASCENT WITHIN CYCLONIC SHEAR SIDE OF MID LEVEL JET STREAK CROSSING SERN NY...AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EXPECT A FEW MORE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY THROUGH EARLY EVENING. ..CARBIN.. 08/16/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 00:58:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 16 Aug 2004 19:58:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408170058.i7H0w5V14207@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170055 SWODY1 SPC AC 170053 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT MON AUG 16 2004 VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE OLU 25 SSE FSD 15 S OTG 25 NNW MCW 55 S LSE 20 SW DBQ 35 WNW BRL 25 NNE LWD 35 SE OMA 20 WSW OMA 15 NE OLU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 20 SSW DAG 55 W DRA 25 N RNO 50 S 4LW 55 NE MFR 10 ESE PDX 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 25 NNW CTB 45 ESE LWT 45 WSW 4BQ 60 SSE SHR 30 WSW RWL AKO GRI YKN BKX AXN 30 NNE BRD 25 ENE ELO ...CONT... 55 WNW ANJ BEH 15 WSW MTO STL 25 N OKC 30 NE LTS PVW 15 S P07. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW ACY 10 NE ABE 25 NNW GFL MPV 30 SW MWN LCI 15 S EWB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W PFN DHN 40 S MCN 70 ESE MCN 25 ESE SAV. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN IOWA... ...MIDDLE MO RIVER VALLEY... THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN IA ALONG AND AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH...WHICH EXTENDED FROM SWRN MN SWWD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. VEERING WIND PROFILES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE UNTIL 0130Z...BUT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS...STORM OUTFLOWS SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO A SWD MOVING LINE WITH A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW WINDS EVENTS. REFERENCE WW 755. ...SERN NEB AND KS... A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED...BUT STRONG UPDRAFTS HAVE NOT BEEN MAINTAINED...MAINLY DUE TO WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. A FEW STORMS MAY DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING AS LOW LEVEL JET IMPINGES ALONG SURFACE TROUGH...THAT EXTENDED FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEB INTO NWRN KS...OR ALONG AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED IN CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING...EXPECT STORMS TO BE TOO ISOLATED FOR A SLIGHT RISK. ...SRN NV/AZ... WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 50 E TPH AT 00Z AND MOVING SLOWLY NEWD. CONSIDERABLE CONVECTION DEVELOPED AROUND THIS SYSTEM ...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ON THE SERN SIDE OF THE LOW FROM NORTH OF LAS SEWD TO N OF PHX. CLOUDS AND STORM OUTFLOWS HAVE STABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS MOST OF SRN NV AND NRN AZ. HOWEVER...A BAND OF STORMS FROM WEST OF PRC TO SAD IS MOVING SWD INTO A HOT AND RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYER. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND PERHAPS EVEN A SEVERE WIND GUST OR TWO. THIS SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AS A NWD MOVING BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD INTERSECT AND WEAKEN STORMS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. ...WRN NEW ENGLAND... A LINE OF CONVECTION...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MID LEVEL COLD POOL AND SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WAS WEAKENING AS IT MOVED EWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ..IMY.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 05:10:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 00:10:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408170510.i7H5AWV26401@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 170508 SWODY1 SPC AC 170506 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1206 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 171200Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 ESE DGW CDR VTN 45 E ANW 15 SE BUB 20 SE BBW 25 SE LBF IML 25 NNE AKO 50 ENE FCL CYS 40 ESE DGW. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW BLV JEF 45 NNE SZL 15 ESE P35 OTM DBQ 25 SW MSN 35 E MSN MKE BEH SBN LAF MVN 30 SSW BLV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GBN 30 SE GBN 50 NW TUS 40 ESE PHX 25 ENE PHX 45 WSW PRC 30 S IGM 40 S LAS 15 SW LAS 10 SE DRA 50 NNE DRA 30 NNW TPH 20 ENE NFL 40 WNW SVE 20 SSW LMT 20 SSW RDM 20 ESE PDX 10 E UIL 30 NNW UIL ...CONT... 75 ENE HVR 35 SE HVR 30 NNE LWT 50 NW SHR 10 NE GCC 35 NW PHP 45 ENE PIR 25 ENE ATY 25 NNW FAR 55 WSW DVL 70 NE ISN ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 40 SSW CMH 50 SSE SDF 30 E CKV 45 ENE DYR 40 SSW JBR 55 E FSM 10 SSE FYV JLN 25 E ICT 15 ENE HUT SLN MHK 35 WSW FNB 25 SW BIE 35 WSW MCK 35 NE PUB 35 SSE PUB 25 ENE RTN 10 WSW LVS 65 SSE LVS 15 N CVS 45 ENE HOB 60 SSE MAF 65 SSW SJT 30 S JCT 10 WNW HDO 25 NNW COT 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 30 E DHN 20 ESE LGC 45 E HSV 15 NW CSV 20 NNW 5I3 45 ENE CRW 30 WNW AOO 45 ESE BFD 30 SSE ELM 20 WNW ABE 20 WSW ILG 15 SSW NHK 20 NNE ECG 45 WNW HSE 30 S EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN/CENTRAL NEB... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK FRONT/TROUGH FROM MN INTO NEB WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD...AND IS FORECAST BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON TO EXTEND FROM ERN WI SWWD TO NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER...AND THEN STRETCH WWD ACROSS NEB BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA...RESULTING IN MODERATE WNWLY FLOW ACROSS THE NRN PORTIONS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALOFT OVER ERN NV THIS EVENING SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NEWD INTO NRN UT. ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY... CONVECTION CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF IA/NWRN IL IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS IL AND PERHAPS NERN MO BY DAYBREAK. THESE STORMS SHOULD BE MOSTLY ELEVATED AND WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY...THE STORMS SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE. HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING OF A RELATIVELY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM MO NEWD INTO IL AND SERN IA. ALTHOUGH THE DYNAMICAL FORCING WILL BE WEAK...STRONG HEATING NEAR THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ...WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT...SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE MODERATELY STRONG FLOW ALOFT AND AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WEAK LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT HAIL AND A FEW SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. IT IS UNCERTAIN HOW FAR SWWD STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO MO WHERE AIR MASS WILL BE MORE STRONGLY CAPPED. HOWEVER...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...THEY LIKELY WILL MOVE MORE SWD THAN EWD...GIVEN THAT THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY/HEATING SHOULD FEED THE STORMS FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL BE PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD WEAKEN BY 03Z TO 04Z. ...WRN/CENTRAL NEB... SEVERE CONVECTION IN THIS AREA IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN DEVELOPING CONVECTION BY EVENING. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ADVECT A SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER TOWARD THE MOUNTAINS. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR HIGH BASED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VEERING WIND PROFILES WOULD SUPPORT UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION OF STORMS MOVING INTO NEB BY LATE IN THE DAY. THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WHICH WOULD BE SUGGESTIVE OF DAMAGING WINDS...IF STRONG UPDRAFTS CAN BE MAINTAINED. MUCAPES UP TO 1000 J/KG MAY ALSO SUPPORT A MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THREAT. ...GREAT BASIN AREA... PRESENCE OF UPPER LOW AND MID/HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD SUPPORT NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WIND PROFILES MAY NOT BE PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF HAIL REPORTS. WHERE STRONG HEATING OCCURS...RESULTING IN LARGE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS...A COUPLE OF STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE. ..IMY.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 12:45:59 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 07:45:59 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408171245.i7HCjjV04942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171243 SWODY1 SPC AC 171241 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0741 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 171300Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW IML 45 NNW AKO 25 NNE CYS 40 ESE DGW 15 N CDR 15 NNW VTN 40 E ANW 20 SE BUB 35 S BBW 15 SW IML. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E JEF 40 NW COU 25 WSW IRK 20 SW OTM 25 SW MSN 30 N MKE 45 N GRR 10 ENE LAN 15 SSE JXN 20 NNE FWA 30 NNE HUF 20 ENE SLO 25 SSW BLV 15 E JEF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SW TUS 40 NW PHX 20 E IGM 15 NNW DRA 30 S NFL 40 NW 4LW 10 ESE PDX 35 NW UIL ...CONT... 45 NE HVR 35 N LWT 40 E 3HT 25 NE SHR 20 NNE RAP 50 ENE PIR 40 NE ATY 35 W AXN 25 E FAR 40 SW GFK 25 N P24 45 ENE ISN 60 NNE ISN ...CONT... 35 NE CLE 35 ESE LUK 25 SE CKV 30 SW DYR 15 SE HRO 40 E ICT 50 NNE DDC 30 E LAA 40 NNW CAO 45 WSW DHT 50 SW CDS 10 SSE ABI 30 NNW HDO 65 W COT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW 25 SSE ANB 20 WNW TYS 30 NE CRW 30 SSW DUJ 35 ESE BFD 25 NE IPT 10 S AVP 30 SSW ABE 10 NE ORF 35 S EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... ...MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS CNTRL IA EXTENDING NEWD TO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD AS A SFC LOW NEAR DES MOINES MOVES SLOWLY EWD INTO WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON. A POCKET OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE OVER MO WILL ADVECT NWD INTO IL AND SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD REACH NEAR 70 F...YIELDING MODERATE INSTABILITY BY MID-AFTERNOON. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE SEWD INTO ERN IA AND WRN IL BY LATE AFTERNOON... AIDING THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE FRONTAL ZONE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. 500 MB TEMPS OF -11 TO -12 C AND MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS. A BRIEF TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH CELLS THAT INTERACT WITH PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES CONSIDERING LCL HEIGHTS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 800 METERS ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SHIFT EWD DURING THE EARLY EVENING AND MAY AFFECT NRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. BUT THE STORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN BY MID-EVENING AS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... SUNNY SKIES AND SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000 TO 1500 J/KG BY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEB. IN ADDITION...A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP IN FAR NWRN NEB WHICH WILL FOCUS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE MAKING STORM INITIATION LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT CONVECTION AS IT DEVELOPS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND SPREADS SEWD ACROSS WRN NEB. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ABOUT 30 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS SUGGEST A POSSIBILITY FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL BE SUSTAINED BY THE LOW-LEVEL JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS BUT SHOULD WEAKEN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ..BROYLES.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 16:38:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 11:38:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408171638.i7HGcQL14428@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171634 SWODY1 SPC AC 171632 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1132 AM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 171630Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MHN 20 S AIA 20 NNW BFF 40 W CDR 40 NNW CDR 30 S PHP 40 NNE VTN 40 ENE ANW 30 WNW BUB 30 SW MHN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE JEF 40 NW COU 25 WSW IRK 10 W OTM 25 SSW MSN 35 NNE MKE MKG 20 NNE AZO 30 SSE AZO 50 S SBN MTO 15 WNW BLV 25 ENE JEF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW CLE 25 N BNA 40 E MEM 55 E FSM 10 SSE FYV JLN 10 SSW CNU 30 W ICT 20 WNW HUT SLN 25 NNW TOP 15 ESE FNB 40 SSE OMA 30 E GRI 30 WNW AKO 20 NE COS 20 N TAD 20 NE TCC 40 SSE MAF 30 NE DRT 30 N NIR 30 SW PSX ...CONT... 40 SE YUM 15 E DAG 10 NW TVL 20 SSW LMT 20 E CLM ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 SE LWT 20 NNW 4BQ 50 SSW Y22 20 WSW MBG 50 WSW JMS 55 WNW JMS 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CEW 35 SW TYS 35 N TRI 15 NW DUJ 40 NW SYR ...CONT... 35 W EFK 25 WNW DOV 20 N RIC 40 N RWI ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IL AND ADJACENT AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE NW NEB AREA THIS EVENING.... ...IL AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO LATE THIS EVENING... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER SW MN/ MOVING SEWD...AND THIS TROUGH WILL REACH NRN IL BY MID AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS SW-NE FROM NE KS ACROSS SE IA TO SE WI...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NRN MO/IL TOWARD SW LOWER MI. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT MLCAPE VALUES COULD APPROACH 2000 J/KG FROM NE KS TO WRN/CENTRAL IL...WITH VALUES CLOSER TO 1000 J/KG AS FAR NE AS SW LOWER MI. THE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL DESTABILIZATION... WEAK LARGER SCALE ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH...AND A MESOSCALE BAND OF WEAK ASCENT ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE MO TO SW LOWER MI. 30-40 KT WLY/NWLY FLOW IN THE 500-300 MB LAYER WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS...GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS BEFORE WEAKENING DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...NEB/SD AREA... 12Z MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF DEVELOPING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS NW NEB TO THE E OF A WEAK LEE CYCLONE OVER SE WY. THIS CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO SPREAD EWD OVER NRN NEB AND SRN SD OVERNIGHT. THE PRIMARY CONCERN THIS AREA WILL BE THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY. REGIONAL 12Z SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...SUGGEST THAT MUCAPE VALUES MAY REACH 500-1000 J/KG...BUT WILL ULTIMATELY BE LIMITED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF AT BEST 50-55 F. VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...AND THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY. OTHERWISE...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING GIVEN RELATIVELY LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS AND INVERTED-V PROFILES. ...NRN GREAT BASIN AREA... A WELL-DEFINED MID LEVEL LOW IS DRIFTING EWD OVER NW UT. A DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WITH PW VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH COVERS MUCH OF UT AND SRN ID...WHERE LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC. HOWEVER...LOCALLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND STRONGER SURFACE HEATING WITHIN A MID LEVEL DRY SLOT COULD SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ACROSS EXTREME NE NV/SRN ID/NW UT TODAY. ...SE AZ AREA... A BELT OF 30 KT NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS ON THE W SIDE OF A NW-SE ORIENTED CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS FROM NE AZ TO SW NM. MODIFYING THE 12Z AZ SOUNDINGS FOR DAYTIME HEATING YIELDS MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. WEAK SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH MARGINAL SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS INVOF THE MOGOLLON RIM. ..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 17 20:01:58 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 15:01:58 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408172001.i7HK1dL11152@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 171959 SWODY1 SPC AC 171956 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0256 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 172000Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NW TBN 25 SW SZL 25 ENE MKC 30 SSW OTM 15 NW RFD 30 E MKE 20 E MKG 25 SW FNT 15 SSW ARB 50 S SBN MTO 15 WNW BLV 30 NW TBN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW MHN 20 S AIA 20 NNW BFF 40 W CDR 40 NNW CDR 30 S PHP 40 NNE VTN 40 ENE ANW 30 WNW BUB 30 SW MHN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE YUM 15 E DAG 10 NW TVL 20 SSW LMT 20 E CLM ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 40 SE LWT 20 NNW 4BQ 50 SSW Y22 20 WSW MBG 50 WSW JMS 55 WNW JMS 55 NNW MOT ...CONT... 50 WNW CLE 25 N BNA 10 SSE DYR 15 NNW JLN 40 NNE PNC 35 WSW P28 25 NW LBL 40 SE LAA 25 ENE LAA 50 NE LAA 50 SSE GLD 25 SSE HLC 20 ENE CNK 35 WSW FNB 15 WNW FNB 25 NNW FNB 30 ESE LNK 30 E GRI AKO 25 WSW LIC 35 SSE PUB 20 NE TCC 40 SSE MAF 30 NE DRT 30 N NIR 30 SW PSX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W EFK 25 WNW DOV 20 N RIC 40 N RWI ILM ...CONT... 25 SSE CEW 35 SW TYS 35 N TRI 15 NW DUJ 40 NW SYR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN NEB/SWRN SD LATE... ...MIDWEST... TSTMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ALONG SURFACE TROUGH/WINDSHIFT AXIS FROM WEST/CNTRL IL SWWD INTO NRN MO. AIRMASS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WINDSHIFT HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY CAPPED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MODEST MID LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND PASSING UPPER WAVE. AREA PROFILERS AND LATEST RUC FCST SOUNDINGS DEPICT SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS AND POSSIBLY A FEW SUPERCELLS SPREADING GENERALLY SWD/SEWD OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. A FEW HAIL/WIND EVENTS ARE LIKELY INTO THE EVENING BEFORE ACTIVITY TENDS TO WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NWRN NEB/SWRN SD... MIDWEST WINDSHIFT EXTENDS WWD/NWWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE IT HAS MERGED WITH LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS FROM ERN WY INTO ERN CO. MEANWHILE...STORMS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE FRONT RANGE WITHIN MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT BENEATH UPPER RIDGE AXIS. CURRENT ACTIVITY MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP EWD LATER THIS EVENING AS UPPER LOW NOW OVER UT MOVES EAST AND RESULT IN INCREASING DEEP LAYER WSWLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS OCCURS...NOCTURNAL LLJ WILL ALSO INCREASE AND SHOULD AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND DESTABILIZATION INTO WRN NEB. MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SUGGESTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SMALL MCS ACROSS THE AREA FROM LATE EVENING THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER CELLS. ...SOUTHEAST... VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS COUPLED WITH SEABREEZE AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES...AND POCKETS OF DRIER MID LEVEL AIR...SHOULD CONTINUE TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS PULSE AND MULTICELL STORMS FROM THE CAROLINAS SOUTH INTO FL. PRIMARY THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLD TO WIDELY SCATTERED WET MICROBURSTS. ...SOUTHWEST... MULTICELL STORMS WERE INCREASING ALONG THE RIM AND SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH INTO INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SCNTRL AZ THROUGH EVENING. RELATIVELY WEAK SHEAR AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL TEND TO LIMIT STORM STRUCTURE AND UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE. NONETHELESS...A COUPLE OF HAIL OR STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN...GIVEN ANTICIPATED STORM COVERAGE AND INSTABILITY. ...NRN UT/SERN ID... POCKETS OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING BENEATH UPPER LOW/COLD POOL... AND AREAS OF ENHANCED ASCENT WITHIN AND AROUND THE LARGE VORTEX... SHOULD RESULT IN A FEW INTENSE TSTM UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL. ..CARBIN.. 08/17/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 01:02:39 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 20:02:39 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408180102.i7I12ML32760@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180059 SWODY1 SPC AC 180057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SGF 40 NNW JLN 10 S OJC 30 ESE BRL 10 NW CGX GRR LAN 10 SE JXN 40 SE FWA 10 NNE DNV DEC 30 NNE POF 35 ESE SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BBW 55 ENE SNY 20 E BFF 35 SW CDR 20 NNE CDR 55 S PHP 45 S 9V9 50 WNW OFK 35 ESE BUB 10 WSW BBW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE AQQ 50 S TYS 15 WNW BLF 25 NE SSU CHO 35 N RIC 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CLE LEX 20 ESE BWG MKL HRO 10 ENE BVO ICT HUT 20 SW MHK MKC BRL 20 S MKG 60 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CTB 20 WNW LWT 35 NW MLS 40 NNE RAP 20 NE PIR 55 NNE ABR 30 SSE ISN 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 S CMX CWA 15 SSW LSE 15 SSE FOD 30 WNW LNK 25 E AKO 20 WNW LIC 15 WSW PUB RTN 30 E TCC MAF 40 NNE DRT 10 NNW COT 25 E CRP ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL 15 WSW NID 20 NW NFL DLS 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SRN MO NEWD INTO SRN MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB... ...MIDWEST... STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MO ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...UPPER FORCING IS WEAK AND STORMS HAVE BEEN THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN. ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THE REST OF NIGHT. ...NWRN NEB/EXTREME SRN SD... SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO WWD INTO WRN NEB...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED. HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER IN SERN WY AND HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN NEB. SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WY CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN/CENTRAL AZ... MULTICELL STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN AZ... THOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS THOSE MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE STORMS WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...EVEN WITH THE LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z-04...THOUGH THE WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. ...NRN NV... UPPER CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER NRN UT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS NRN NV. MORE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED OVER NV EARLIER TODAY AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN UNDER THE CLOUD FILLED LOW IN UT. A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NRN NV... GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...WITH THE STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NERN ND AND NRN MN... UNUSUALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX WILL DIVE SWD TONIGHT FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR THE MANITOBA/ND BY DAYBREAK. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH HUGE HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 70 TO 80 KT SUGGEST STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SO ONLY A 5% THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL FOR LATER TONIGHT. ..IMY.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 01:19:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 17 Aug 2004 20:19:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408180119.i7I1JmL05944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180115 SWODY1 SPC AC 180113 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0813 PM CDT TUE AUG 17 2004 VALID 180100Z - 181200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE SGF 40 NNW JLN 10 S OJC 30 ESE BRL 10 NW CGX GRR LAN 10 SE JXN 40 SE FWA 10 NNE DNV DEC 30 NNE POF 35 ESE SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW BBW 55 ENE SNY 20 E BFF 35 SW CDR 20 NNE CDR 55 S PHP 45 S 9V9 50 WNW OFK 35 ESE BUB 10 WSW BBW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE AQQ 50 S TYS 15 WNW BLF 25 NE SSU CHO 35 N RIC 40 NE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 W CLE LEX 20 ESE BWG MKL HRO 10 ENE BVO ICT HUT 20 SW MHK MKC BRL 20 S MKG 60 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NE CTB 20 WNW LWT 35 NW MLS 40 NNE RAP 20 NE PIR 55 NNE ABR 30 SSE ISN 55 NNE GGW ...CONT... 25 S CMX CWA 15 SSW LSE 15 SSE FOD 30 WNW LNK 25 E AKO 20 WNW LIC 15 WSW PUB RTN 30 E TCC MAF 40 NNE DRT 10 NNW COT 25 E CRP ...CONT... 25 WSW IPL 15 WSW NID 20 NW NFL DLS 60 NW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL/SRN MO NEWD INTO SRN MI... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF WRN/CENTRAL NEB... ...MIDWEST... STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS EXTEND FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MO ALONG AND AHEAD OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT. ALTHOUGH AIR MASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...UPPER FORCING IS WEAK AND STORMS HAVE BEEN THERMODYNAMICALLY DRIVEN. ISOLATED STORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL/WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS ...BUT SHOULD BE MOSTLY NON-SEVERE THE REST OF NIGHT. ...NWRN NEB/EXTREME SRN SD... SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN MO WWD INTO WRN NEB...WHERE A WEAK SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED. HIGH BASED CONVECTION DEVELOPED EARLIER IN SERN WY AND HAS SPREAD EWD ACROSS WRN NEB. SURFACE BASED STORMS DEVELOPED THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS ALONG AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE WY CONVECTION. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FAVORABLE FOR STORMS WITH HAIL/WIND DAMAGE. THE LIMITING FACTOR IS THE WEAK INSTABILITY WITH ONLY UP TO 1000 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A FEW SEVERE STORMS AS THE CONVECTION SPREADS SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EVENING. ...SRN/CENTRAL AZ... MULTICELL STORMS WERE MOVING SLOWLY SWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN AZ... THOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT QUITE AS ORGANIZED AS THOSE MONDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS SOUTH OF THE STORMS WAS MODERATELY UNSTABLE...EVEN WITH THE LARGE SURFACE TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS. SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z-04...THOUGH THE WEAK MID/HIGH LEVEL WINDS SUGGESTS THAT THE THREAT WILL BE VERY ISOLATED. ...NRN NV... UPPER CIRCULATION WAS LOCATED OVER NRN UT WITH SLIGHTLY STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS LOCATED ACROSS NRN NV. MORE INTENSE SURFACE HEATING OCCURRED OVER NV EARLIER TODAY AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN STRONGER INSTABILITY THAN UNDER THE CLOUD FILLED LOW IN UT. A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL 03Z ACROSS NRN NV... GIVEN THE MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...WITH THE STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. ...NERN ND AND NRN MN... UNUSUALLY STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH/JET MAX WILL DIVE SWD TONIGHT FROM SASKATCHEWAN TO NEAR THE MANITOBA/ND BY DAYBREAK. VERY STRONG DYNAMICS WITH HUGE HEIGHT FALLS AND MID LEVEL JET MAX OF 70 TO 80 KT SUGGEST STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONG INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THE WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SO ONLY A 5% THREAT FOR WIND/HAIL FOR LATER TONIGHT. ..IMY.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 05:34:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 00:34:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408180534.i7I5YXL21542@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 180532 SWODY1 SPC AC 180529 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 181200Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 W CLE 25 E MIE CMI 35 NNW COU STJ 25 SSE OMA 20 SSE MSP 15 NW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ECG 45 W RIC 20 SE CXY 10 NNW ABE 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW PFN 30 SW MCN 45 S AHN 25 WSW AND 50 WSW AVL 20 SSW TYS 45 ENE HSV 15 WSW MSL 40 NNE UOX 40 SW DYR 35 SW PAH 30 NNE PAH 20 ESE MVN 10 NE SLO STL 35 WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 15 ENE DUA 30 ENE CLL 30 SSW BPT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 25 NNW GBN 60 SE EED 40 NW IGM 25 ESE DRA 30 SSW BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW CDR 45 NNW VTN 25 W MHE 45 N AXN 30 NE RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SWWD INTO IA.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UNUSUALLY INTENSE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING 70-80 KT MID LEVEL JET MAX WILL DIG SEWD FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA. A STRONG POLAR FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AND IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO KS/SERN CO BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE GREAT BASIN SEWD INTO WRN TX...WITH RIDGES LOCATED ACROSS THE SERN STATES AND CA. ...IA NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA... WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA...MODELS SHOW 24 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS FROM 120 TO 200 M. MID LEVEL SPEED MAX OF 70 TO 80 KT...CURRENTLY LOCATED IN SRN SASKATCHEWAN IS FORECAST TO BE ROTATING NEWD ACROSS WI INTO SRN ONTARIO BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE UPPER TROUGH TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AND STRENGTHEN THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE. STRONG FORCING ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A LINE OF STORMS TO SWEEP RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. CONVECTION...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NWRN MN...SHOULD MOVE INTO WI DURING THE MORNING AND INTO NWRN LOWER MI BY LATE AFTERNOON. HODOGRAPHS SHOW STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AT 40-60 KT...FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE WEAK DUE TO POOR LAPSE RATES...THE STRONG DYNAMICS...70-80 KT WIND MAX AND STRONG LOW/DEEP LAYER SHEAR...MAY SUPPORT A FEW TORNADOES. HOWEVER... THE CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD BE A FAST MOVING LINE...SO THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND ACROSS THE NRN GREAT LAKES AREA. FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS IA...EWD INTO NWRN OH...STORMS CURRENTLY IN NRN NEB/SRN SD ARE FORECAST TO BE SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND FORCING WILL BE WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE NORTH...THE AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH DIURNAL HEATING... THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A THREAT FOR SEVERE WIND/HAIL...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 19-03Z. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... COLD FRONT WILL DROP SWD INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PROMOTING STRONG HEATING. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR...SO THE CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE WEAK. DESPITE THE WEAK DYNAMICAL LIFTING...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON. MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR PRECLUDES MORE THAN 5% PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE AT THIS TIME. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN GREAT LAKES AREA WILL APPROACH THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WILL RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND VEERING WIND PROFILES IN THE LOWER 3 KM WILL SUPPORT STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. ...FL NWD INTO THE CAROLINAS... NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND EAST OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 25-30 KT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT A COUPLE OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 4-5C/KM LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 500-700 MB AND THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL. ..IMY.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 13:01:40 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 08:01:40 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408181301.i7ID1QL01402@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181258 SWODY1 SPC AC 181256 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLE 40 ESE FWA CMI 35 NNW COU STJ 25 SSE OMA 20 SSE MSP 15 NW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ECG 45 S RIC 35 E CHO 30 E HGR 15 WSW ABE 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 25 NNW GBN 60 SE EED 40 NW IGM 25 ESE DRA 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW CDR VTN 20 SSE MHE 45 W BRD 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 20 WNW PFN 30 SW MCN 45 S AHN 25 WSW AND 50 WSW AVL 40 SSW TYS 25 NW RMG 40 S MSL 15 NNW TUP 40 SW DYR 35 SSE CGI 25 NW PAH 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BLV 20 WSW STL 35 WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 10 ENE DUA 30 ENE CLL 35 NNE HOU 25 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...UPPER MIDWEST... A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD INTO NEB...IA AND WI THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND TEMPS AROUND 80 F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NE MN SHOULD EXPAND SWD ACROSS WI AS INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS IA WHERE ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN IA AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS WI WITH 30 TO 40 KT ACROSS IA...IL AND IND. INITIALLY...THE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI AND THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE GREATER. EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL AREAS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR PRESENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS IA AND SE NEB AS THE CAP WEAKENS BY EARLY EVENING. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS MI..SERN WI INTO IL AND IND THIS EVENING. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES WILL REINFORCE UPPER 60 AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS SHOULD HELP INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MD SHOW LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 9.0 C/KM WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB TODAY REACHING NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK SHEAR. STILL...LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 13:15:23 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 08:15:23 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408181317.i7IDH7L08052@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181311 SWODY1 SPC AC 181309 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0809 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 181300Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLE 40 ESE FWA CMI 35 NNW COU STJ 25 SSE OMA 20 SSE MSP 15 NW IWD. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE ECG 45 S RIC 35 E CHO 30 E HGR 15 WSW ABE 10 SSW JFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S GBN 25 NNW GBN 60 SE EED 40 NW IGM 25 ESE DRA 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW CDR VTN 20 SSE MHE 45 W BRD 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 20 WNW PFN 30 SW MCN 45 S AHN 25 WSW AND 50 WSW AVL 40 SSW TYS 25 NW RMG 40 S MSL 15 NNW TUP 40 SW DYR 35 SSE CGI 25 NW PAH 15 NNE MDH 10 SE BLV 20 WSW STL 35 WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 10 ENE DUA 30 ENE CLL 35 NNE HOU 25 SE BPT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... CORRECTED TO FLIP SIG WIND LINE ...UPPER MIDWEST... A STRONG COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ANALYZED ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE QUICKLY SEWD INTO NEB...IA AND WI THIS AFTERNOON. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F AND TEMPS AROUND 80 F WILL YIELD MODERATE INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE CONVECTIVE LINE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NE MN SHOULD EXPAND SWD ACROSS WI AS INSTABILITY AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE STRENGTHENS THIS AFTERNOON. A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD HOLD FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS IA WHERE ELEVATED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING. THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN IA AND THIS COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED SFC-BASED CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KT ACROSS WI WITH 30 TO 40 KT ACROSS IA...IL AND IND. INITIALLY...THE SHEAR WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY ACROSS WI AND THE GREAT LAKES WHERE THE SHEAR WILL BE GREATER. EVEN THOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE MARGINAL...SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP IN THE LOCAL AREAS OF HIGHER INSTABILITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR PRESENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS IA AND SE NEB AS THE CAP WEAKENS BY EARLY EVENING. THE SUPERCELL THREAT SHOULD TRANSITION TO A LINEAR MCS AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL FAVOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS THE CONVECTIVE LINE MOVES SWD ACROSS MI..SERN WI INTO IL AND IND THIS EVENING. ...MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS... STRONG ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS ATLANTIC COASTAL STATES WILL REINFORCE UPPER 60 AND LOWER 70S F SFC DEWPOINTS ALREADY IN PLACE. THE MOISTURE WILL LIKELY YIELD 1000 TO 1500 J/KG OF MLCAPE BY AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A SFC TROUGH EAST OF THE APPALACHIAN MTNS SHOULD HELP INITIATE ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS. ALTHOUGH LARGE-SCALE FORCING WILL BE WEAK...MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A BETTER CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS THERE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS MD SHOW LOW-LEVEL VEERING WIND PROFILES AND 30 TO 35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS CONSIDERING THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 9.0 C/KM WILL MAKE WIND DAMAGE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NEAR PEAK HEATING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING AS INSTABILITY DECREASES ACROSS THE REGION. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH NEB TODAY REACHING NRN KS BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SFC HEATING AND SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. THIS COMBINED WITH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW WEAK SHEAR. STILL...LOW-LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD RESULT IN A MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE OR HAIL THREAT NEAR PEAK HEATING. ..BROYLES.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 18 16:38:38 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 11:38:38 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408181638.i7IGcRL14894@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 181635 SWODY1 SPC AC 181633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 181630Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW CLE 60 W UNI 35 N LEX BMG 45 NNW COU STJ OMA 40 ESE MSP 15 NW IWD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N CTB 45 W LWT 30 SE SHR 35 NNW CDR VTN 10 SW MHE 20 WNW BRD 40 NNW ELO ...CONT... 20 E PNS 25 ENE CSG 45 ESE ATL 30 NW AHN 60 S TYS 25 ESE CHA 35 NW BHM 20 WSW TUP 20 E JBR 20 SW CGI 35 W MDH 45 SW STL 35 WNW TBN 20 WSW JLN 15 S TUL 10 ENE DUA 25 NNW LFK 50 N BPT 40 WSW 7R4 ...CONT... 20 SSE YUM 35 WSW BLH 35 N TRM 15 NNE DAG 15 NNE NID 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AREA.... ...UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES AREA... AN INTENSE MID LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING ESEWD FROM SRN MANITOBA TOWARD WI/MI PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 100 M HEIGHT FALLS AT INL IN 12Z UPPER AIR ANALYSES. AN ASSOCIATED STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SURGING SWD ACROSS SD AND SEWD ACROSS MN AS OF MID MORNING...AND THIS FRONT WILL CONTINUE SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND SWD INTO KS BY TONIGHT. A BAND OF ASCENT ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THROUGH THE PERIOD. A W-E ORIENTED BAND OF CLOUDS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM IA ACROSS NRN IL TO SRN LOWER MI DENOTES A WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE...WITH THE RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /SURFACE DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 60S/ GENERALLY CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG AND S OF THIS BAND. THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY IS IN QUESTION N OF THIS BAND...WITH ONLY A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MUCAPE VALUES FROM 500-1250 J/KG EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS WI/UPPER MI THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED ACROSS THE COLD FRONT FROM THE COLD SIDE TO THE WARM SIDE WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS WI/MI THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...EXPECTED STORM MOTIONS ROUGHLY MATCH THE MOTION OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF STORMS REMAINING IN THE FRONTAL ZONE...STRONG LINEAR FORCING...AND A NARROW INSTABILITY CORRIDOR SHOULD INSTEAD FAVOR SQUALL LINE DEVELOPMENT WITH DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT. THE DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS WI/WRN UPPER MI...AND THEN SPREAD SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI/NRN IL/NRN INDIANA BY LATE THIS EVENING. FARTHER S...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INVOF THE WEAK LOW-MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE AND AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY FROM THE IA/MO BORDER AREA EWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NRN IL AND INDIANA TO WRN OH THIS AFTERNOON. MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 30-40 KT MAY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS. ...ATLANTIC COAST AREA... MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW MOIST PROFILES WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON FROM FL NWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...WITH LESSER INSTABILITY FARTHER N INTO NY. MEANWHILE...DEEP LAYER VERTICAL IS MODEST FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO NY...AND WEAK FARTHER S ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/FL. LOCAL TERRAIN FEATURES AND SUBTLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES/SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. ...AZ RIM COUNTRY... 12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THIS AREA CONTINUE TO SHOW A NW FLOW REGIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS HAS DRIFTED A LITTLE E OF ITS POSITION FROM THE PAST FEW DAYS...THUS THE STRONGER STORMS /WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS/ MAY BE CONFINED MORE TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON. ..THOMPSON/MEAD.. 08/18/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 01:10:04 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 18 Aug 2004 20:10:04 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408190110.i7J1AEL26857@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190107 SWODY1 SPC AC 190105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT WED AUG 18 2004 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WSW ERI 10 SSE HLG 30 SSW HTS 45 N BWG 15 NNE BLV 20 ENE TOP 20 S FNB 20 NNE FNB 35 ENE OTM 45 SE MKE 20 NNE MBS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE CAR 35 NNW PWM 30 NW BOS 15 NNW BID ...CONT... 40 WNW CTY 55 ESE MCN 25 S TYS 20 ESE BWG 20 S BLV 20 SSW SZL 35 WSW CNU 35 NE OKC 30 NNE DAL 25 NNW LFK 30 SSE LCH ...CONT... 20 SSE YUM 35 WSW BLH 35 N TRM 15 NNE DAG 15 NNE NID 45 S BIH 55 NE MER 15 SSW RNO 80 SE 4LW 45 SSE BNO 55 NNE BNO 45 ESE YKM 30 NNE SEA 20 NE BLI ...CONT... 30 NNE CTB 10 ENE HLN 35 NW RIW 50 NNW LAR 35 ESE SNY 10 S GRI 20 N CID 25 NW TVC 20 N ANJ. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY... ...MID MS RIVER VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES... EARLY THIS EVENING A SEWD MOVING PRE-FRONTAL COLD TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR LAKE MI SWWD THROUGH EXTREME SERN IA THEN WSWWD THROUGH NWRN MO AND INTO NRN KS. WARM FRONT EXTENDS FROM SRN IND NWWD THROUGH CNTRL IL INTO SERN IA WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE PRE-FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. FARTHER N INTO THE GREAT LAKES...COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S IS RESULTING IN MORE MARGINAL INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE BELOW 1000 J/KG. BAND OF STRONGER 40-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH IS RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS HAVE CONSOLIDATED INTO LINES ALONG THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM EXTREME SERN IA SWWD INTO NRN MO. PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL ASSOCIATED WITH EMBEDDED BOWS AND SUPERCELLS. MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF W CNTRL IL SEWD INTO S CNTRL IND. ISOLATED HAIL...DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY NEXT FEW HOURS. MOST PERSISTENT ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OUT OF MCS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO W CNTRL IL. DEVELOPING SWLY LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT THESE STORMS CONTINUING EWD OVERNIGHT AS AN MCS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND BECOMING THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...SOME DECREASE IN INTENSITY IS EXPECTED AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. DESPITE STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACCOMPANYING THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...LIMITED INSTABILITY HAS RESULTED IN OVERALL WEAKENING OF STORMS ACROSS LOWER MI. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL WSWLY WIND PROFILES WITH 40-50 KT BETWEEN 1 AND 3 KM SUGGEST ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING COMMENCES. ...CNTRL AND SRN AZ... STORMS THAT INITIATED OVER THE RIM HAVE DEVELOPED ENOUGH OF A COLD POOL TO SUPPORT SWD PROPAGATION TOWARD THE DESERT VALLEYS DESPITE A SOMEWHAT UNFAVORABLE MID LEVEL WIND PROFILE. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS SWD. ..DIAL.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 05:49:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 00:49:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408190549.i7J5nVL22700@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 190547 SWODY1 SPC AC 190544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1244 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 191200Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N SAT 45 ENE DRT 55 ENE P07 15 SE INK 35 NNE HOB 25 WSW PVW 25 S CDS 40 NE ABI 25 WNW TPL 35 N SAT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ACY 45 S MRB 15 SSE UNI 30 SSE CMH 20 SSE MFD 10 SE BFD 20 ENE UCA 10 ESE MPV 30 NNW AUG 20 ENE BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WNW CTY 35 W AYS 65 ESE MCN 35 SSE AHN 20 NNE ATL 20 WSW RMG 50 NE HSV 50 SE BNA 50 N CSV 45 SSW LEX 25 SE SDF 35 SW EVV 40 WNW CGI 30 NNW ARG 20 S GWO 10 WNW LUL 30 SW PNS ...CONT... MFE 35 SSW ALI 35 SSE COT 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 75 SSW GBN 40 SE BLH 40 E NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 75 NE MFR 25 SSE DLS 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 55 ENE CTB 25 N SHR 50 NE DGW 30 NW AIA 35 NE SNY 20 WSW IML 15 SSE GLD 50 NNW GCK 55 SSW HLC 40 NNE RSL 25 ESE BIE 20 SE OTM 10 W SBN 25 E DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE NE U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR W TX... ...OH VALLEY AND NERN STATES... NRN PORTION OF COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM LAKE HURON SWWD INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE NERN U.S. THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH SRN ONTARIO CONTINUES EWD INTO QUEBEC. DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS BOUNDARY...SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL MAINTAIN SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S FARTHER NORTH. WHERE SURFACE HEATING OCCURS...THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO SRN PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...OVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SRN PARTS OF THE RISK AREA WITH AOB 1500 J/KG EXPECTED FARTHER N. STORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER ERN PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITHIN ZONE OF LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY REINTENSIFY DURING THE DAY AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. SWLY 30-50 KT FLOW BETWEEN 1 AND 6 KM ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH AND 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 30-40 KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS. LINES OF STORMS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SOMEWHAT LESSER THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND WILL EXIST FARTHER SW OVER THE OH VALLEY ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF THE FRONT WHERE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND MORE PARALLEL ORIENTATION OF THE LOW LEVEL FLOW RELATIVE TO THE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST. ...W TX... THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER W TX WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO NRN TX AND OK DURING THE DAY ACCOMPANIED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE ACROSS W TX...NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP...AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD DESTABILIZE AS SURFACE HEATING COMMENCES WITH MODERATELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON. ELY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL AND NRN NM AS SURFACE BOUNDARY SETTLES SWD. 25 TO 30 KT WNWLY FLOW ALOFT ABOVE SELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT STORMS THAT FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO DEVELOP SEWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS THROUGH W TX. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. HOWEVER...EVOLUTION INTO AN MCS MAY OCCUR DURING THE EVENING. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ..DIAL.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 12:56:13 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 07:56:13 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408191256.i7JCu4L00729@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191253 SWODY1 SPC AC 191251 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0751 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 191300Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S ACY 45 S MRB 15 SSE UNI 30 SSE CMH 20 SSE MFD 10 SE BFD 20 ENE UCA 10 ESE MPV 30 NNW AUG 20 ENE BHB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE DRT 50 NE P07 10 E INK 35 NNE HOB 30 WSW PVW 40 SSW CDS 25 NW SEP 30 W TPL 20 NNW SAT 45 NE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 25 N SHR 50 NE DGW 30 NW AIA 35 NE SNY 20 WNW IML 45 SSW GLD 50 ESE LAA 30 NW LBL 20 SE GCK 40 S HLC 40 NNE RSL 25 ESE BIE 20 SE OTM 10 W SBN 25 E DTW ...CONT... 15 WNW CTY 35 W AYS 65 ESE MCN 35 SSE AHN 20 NNE ATL 20 WSW RMG 50 NE HSV 50 SE BNA 50 N CSV 45 SSW LEX 15 NW SDF 25 NW EVV 15 N CGI 25 NE JBR 20 S GWO 10 WNW LUL 30 SW PNS ...CONT... MFE 35 SSW ALI 35 SSE COT 65 WSW COT ...CONT... 25 E IPL 55 E DAG 40 E NID 45 SSW TVL 35 W SVE 75 NE MFR 25 SSE DLS 35 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST TEXAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST... ...NORTHEAST US... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ACROSS NRN OH AND SRN PA. THIS CONVECTION WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS WRN NY AND NW PA BY AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE A FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION BY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. THE BEST INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ACROSS NRN WV AND PA AS MID-LEVEL DRYING RESULTS IN PARTIAL CLEARING ACROSS THIS AREA. STORMS COULD ALSO INITIATE ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. AT UPPER-LEVELS...A LARGE TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WILL CAUSE MID-LEVEL FLOW TO INCREASE ACROSS THE ERN US TODAY. THIS WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SERN PA BY 00Z SHOW MOSTLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR AT 35 TO 40 KT. THIS WILL RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AS A CONVECTIVE LINE ORGANIZES AND MOVES EWD ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE FASTER MOVING LINE SEGMENTS ESPECIALLY AS THE LINE MATURES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE NY AND ERN PA. ...WEST AND CNTRL TX... SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE NM AND W TX EXTENDING NEWD INTO WRN OK. A LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX CURRENTLY EXISTS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS NCNTRL TX AND THIS MCS WILL CONTINUE NEWD AWAY FROM THE SLIGHT RISK AREA TODAY. THE AIRMASS ACROSS W TX REMAINS LARGELY UNTOUCHED AND SFC HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE INITIATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE MTNS OF ERN NM WITH THE STORMS SPREADING EWD INTO W TX LATE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHER ISOLATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THIS MORNINGS CONVECTION ACROSS WCNTRL TX. THE 09Z RUC MODEL SHOWS A MID-LEVEL JET MAX OVER FAR SE NM AND THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY MOVE EWD INTO W TX AS SHOWN BY THE ETA. AS A RESULT...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL INCREASE OVER W TX BY 00Z WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR REACHING 30 TO 35 KT. THIS MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY IF MLCAPE EXCEEDS 2000 J/KG ACROSS W TX AS SUGGESTED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 7.0 C/KM MAY RESULT IN LARGE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST CELLS. ALSO...SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S F WITH VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE. ISOLATED SUPERCELLS SHOULD GRADUALLY CONGEAL...FORMING AN MCS DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE MCS SHOULD MOVE ESEWD ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS REACHING WCNTRL TX BY THE LATE EVENING HOURS. ...CNTRL PLAINS AND OZARKS... SCATTERED STORMS ARE CURRENTLY ONGOING ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SE KS AND SW MO. SFC HEATING TODAY AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY AFTERNOON. AS STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT...A MARGINAL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY EXIST DUE TO THE INSTABILITY AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 850 MB JET. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE MARGINAL AND BRIEF CONSIDERING FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS SE KS DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 10 TO 20 KT. ..BROYLES/GUYER.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 16:38:09 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 11:38:09 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408191638.i7JGc1L13230@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191635 SWODY1 SPC AC 191633 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1133 AM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 191630Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MGW 45 W UNI 25 N LUK 30 NW DAY 40 NNW DAY 35 S FDY 30 S YNG PSB 30 NW CXY 10 WNW CXY 20 SSE HGR 20 SW MGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W CTY AYS 50 WNW SAV AGS AHN ATL 25 NE GAD 45 NE HSV 40 NW CSV 40 S LEX LEX 35 NE SDF OWB PAH JBR GWO LUL 30 SSW PNS ...CONT... MFE ALI COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNW YUM 40 W BLH 60 E DAG 40 SSW DRA 65 N DRA TPH 60 ESE BIH 50 N NID 60 S BIH 45 SSW TVL MHS 40 NE BLI ...CONT... 45 NW CTB GTF 3HT BIL AIA 35 NNW IML 35 W EHA EHA GCK RSL CNK FNB 25 S DTW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL OH AND SW PA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.... ...OH VALLEY TO NEW ENGLAND AREA... A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS LIFTING ENEWD OVER QUEBEC...AS PART OF A LARGER CYCLONIC VORTEX CENTERED OVER ONTARIO. THE BELT OF STRONGER /AOA 50 KT/ MID LEVEL FLOW EXTENDS IN A CYCLONIC ARC OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS MOVING SLOWLY EWD/SEWD ACROSS LAKES ONTARIO/ERIE TOWARD WRN NY. THIS FRONT EXTENDS WWD ACROSS NRN OH/INDIANA TO CENTRAL IL/MO...AND THIS PORTION OF THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND WEAKEN ACROSS NY/NRN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WHILE THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS UPSTATE NY AND NRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS EVENING...INSTABILITY IS RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THIS AREA AND ONLY A SPORADIC/MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. FARTHER S...SOMEWHAT RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY. HOWEVER...12Z SOUNDINGS SHOWED POOR LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS OVERSPREADING MUCH OF NEW ENGLAND WHICH WILL SLOW DAYTIME HEATING. THE AREA FROM ERN PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND IS ALSO ALONG THE SRN FRINGE OF THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW...AND WINDS WILL NOT INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS WEAK MID LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. GIVEN NO OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND THE MEDIOCRE INSTABILITY/WIND FIELDS...ANY WIND DAMAGE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN BOTH ISOLATED AND MARGINAL. GREATER INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE STALLED E-W FRONT FROM CENTRAL OH INTO SW/S CENTRAL PA...WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW STRONG SURFACE HEATING. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG AND 35-45 KT MEAN WINDS IN THE LOWEST 6 KM MAY SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LINE SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS/MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ...TX AREA... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A PRONOUNCED SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NEWD FROM N TX INTO SRN OK...WITH THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE LOCATED WELL TO THE W OVER CENTRAL AZ. A LARGE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ACROSS N TX IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MID LEVEL WAVE. ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY ALONG THE SRN AND ERN FLANK OF THIS CLUSTER WHERE SURFACE HEATING AND MID 70 BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS ACROSS NE TX...WHILE MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE CENTRAL TX PORTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LATER THIS AFTERNOON WHERE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SOMEWHAT ENHANCED. THE MARGINAL SUPERCELL THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST ACROSS W/SW TX...BUT THE LACK OF LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT SUGGESTS THAT STORM COVERAGE WILL REMAIN ISOLATED ACROSS THIS AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT AS THE AZ WAVE APPROACHES. ..THOMPSON/EDWARDS.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Thu Aug 19 19:59:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 14:59:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408191959.i7JJx6L16898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 191951 SWODY1 SPC AC 191949 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0249 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 192000Z - 201200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW MGW 45 W UNI 40 W LUK 30 E IND 20 ENE MIE 35 S FDY 30 S YNG 25 ENE PSB 35 NNW CXY 10 WNW CXY 20 SSE HGR 20 SW MGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NW CTB GTF 3HT BIL AIA 35 NNW IML 35 W EHA EHA GCK RSL CNK FNB 25 S DTW ...CONT... 35 W CTY AYS 50 WNW SAV AGS AHN ATL 25 NE GAD 45 NE HSV 40 NW CSV 40 S LEX LEX 35 NE SDF OWB PAH JBR GWO 20 E LUL 20 SE PNS ...CONT... MFE ALI COT 70 W COT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNW YUM 40 W BLH 60 E DAG 30 NNE DAG 35 ESE NID 60 S BIH 45 SSW TVL MHS 40 NE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/UPPER OH VALLEY INTO CNTRL PA... ...OH VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND... STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S HAVE RESULTED IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SRN PORTIONS IND/OH INTO PA -- ALONG AND S OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS INDICATE LARGELY WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELDS...PRESENCE OF 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG/N OF BAROCLINIC ZONE IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED TSTM DEVELOPMENT. WHILE BOWING LINE SEGMENTS WITH DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. FARTHER NE...CONVECTIVE LINE HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED ACROSS CNTRL NY WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXTENDING NEWD ALONG FRONT INTO N-CNTRL VT. HERE...WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS HAS SLOWED THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS WITH GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY PRESENT FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND. SOME OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT THE WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. FOR MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2047. ...CNTRL/ERN TX INTO AR/LA... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS MID-LEVEL VORTICITY MAXIMUM SLOWLY TRANSLATING ENEWD ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. TSTMS HAVE INCREASED IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS WITHIN TROPICAL/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL/ERN TX. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO OCCURRING ALONG TRAILING PORTION OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTO W-CNTRL TX WHERE STRONG DIABATIC HEATING AND ENHANCED CONVERGENCE HAVE LOCALLY OVERCOME CAP. CURRENT FT. WORTH/WACO VWPS INDICATE A ZONE OF STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN SERN QUADRANT OF MID-LEVEL SYSTEM ALONG/E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE 0-6KM SHEAR HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 35KTS WITH 1KM SRH VALUES OF 100-150 M2/S2. THUS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELL STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO. FARTHER W ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAKER...HOWEVER STEEPER LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. FOR MORE ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD/S 2046 AND 2048. ...PARTS OF PACIFIC NW/NRN ROCKIES... ABUNDANT SUNSHINE AND RESULTANT STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN POCKETS OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS REGION WHERE MLCAPES HAVE INCREASED TO 500-1000 J/KG. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TSTMS GRADUALLY INCREASING ALONG/E OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER NERN ORE/SERN WA AND NWRN MT...AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER NWRN ORE AND FAR NWRN MT. RELATIVELY WEAK WIND SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION...HOWEVER THE STRONGER ACTIVITY WILL POSE AN ISOLATED HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. ..MEAD.. 08/19/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 00:52:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 19 Aug 2004 19:52:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408200052.i7K0qbL07027@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200050 SWODY1 SPC AC 200047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT THU AUG 19 2004 VALID 200100Z - 201200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S CRP 20 SW ALI 30 NE LRD 70 W COT ...CONT... 70 S GBN 20 NNW YUM 40 WNW BLH 50 ESE DAG 35 ESE NID 65 SSW BIH 45 SSW TVL MHS 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 30 NE CTB 50 ENE GTF 20 E SHR 45 SW DGW 40 ENE DEN 40 S LHX 40 WSW GAG 40 SSW EMP 20 WNW FLV 30 S OTM 25 NW LAF 25 SW FDY 15 N FKL 35 WNW ALB 20 S HUL ...CONT... 30 SE ORF 25 SSE DAN 20 ESE SPA 50 NW AHN 10 NE CHA 20 NNE TRI 20 NE JKL 35 NNW HOP 25 ENE MEM 30 SSE MEI PNS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S CTY 15 ENE JAX. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH THROUGH MID ATLANTIC AREA... THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL NY SWWD THROUGH NW PA...CNTRL OH AND BEYOND. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THIS BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AREA WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUE FROM CNTRL OH EWD THROUGH SRN PA...MD AND NRN VA. THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...MAINLY OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AREA. HOWEVER...GIVEN LACK OF FORCING ON THE LARGER SCALE...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY... STALLED BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OH SWWD THROUGH SRN IND...SRN IL AND SRN MO. S OF THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT...INCLUDING DEVELOPMENT OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET IS SPREADING NEWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY FROM MO EWD THROUGH SRN IL AND IND. HOWEVER...DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND FLOW REGIME IS SUCH THAT STORMS WILL BECOME ELEVATED AS THEY MOVE NEWD OVER TOP OF STALLED BOUNDARY. THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY PERSIST THROUGH 03Z...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED BY MODEST LAPSE RATES/INSTABILITY AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR. ...TX... THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM W TX JUST S OF MIDLAND EWD THROUGH CNTRL TX S OF KILEEN THEN NEWD INTO NE TX. THE MOST CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY IS OVER CNTRL TX WHERE THE WARM SECTOR S OF THE BOUNDARY REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE AROUND 2000 J/KG. SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MID-LATE EVENING WITH STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT SETTLES SWD THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX. HOWEVER...WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR...MODEST LAPSE RATES AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGEST OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN VERY MARGINAL. ...WRN U.S... OROGRAPHIC FORCING IN CONJUNCTION WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER SCALE NWLY FLOW REGIME ARE SUPPORTING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION SWD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V BOUNDARY LAYERS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 05:48:10 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 00:48:10 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408200548.i7K5mAL07100@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 200545 SWODY1 SPC AC 200543 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 201200Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SW P07 10 NE FST 35 NW INK 40 NNW HOB 35 W LBB 10 S ACT 55 SSE AUS 45 WNW NIR 50 SE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WSW CXY 25 ESE BMG 30 WSW IND 20 E LAF 40 N CLE 20 WNW SYR 15 NW AVP 25 WSW CXY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 30 N MRF 45 ESE GDP 15 N GDP 45 ENE ELP 10 ENE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 30 N FAT 40 WNW TVL 30 SSW LMT 35 NNE MFR 35 W RDM 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 45 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 80 ENE HVR 75 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 35 E AIA IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 40 W CSM 15 SW OKC 25 SW BVO 30 ENE CNU 45 S IRK PIA 35 SSE CGX 15 SE DTW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 ESE BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY THROUGH THE NERN U.S.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX... ...OH VALLEY THROUGH NERN STATES... SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WILL LIFT NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY FRIDAY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. FRIDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL TRACK NEWD ALONG STALLED FRONT. THE FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NY SWWD THROUGH SRN OH...SRN IND AND INTO SRN IL AND MO. THIS BOUNDARY MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO LIFT NWD AS A STRONG 50 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND SHIFTS NEWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY. PRIMARY CONCERN THIS FORECAST IS HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR OVER THE OH VALLEY IN VICINITY OF AND S OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. THE CURRENT IR IMAGERY SHOWS EXTENSIVE MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS LIFTING NEWD THROUGH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE MS RIVER VALLEYS. HOWEVER...RECENT TRENDS SHOW THE CONVECTION WEAKENING WITH IR TOPS WARMING AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE REGIME. THIS SUGGESTS THAT ALTHOUGH SOME MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS A REASONABLE CHANCE THAT ENOUGH BREAKS WILL DEVELOP TO ALLOW SOME SURFACE HEATING IN THE WARM SECTOR. STILL...INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH MLCAPE FROM 1000 TO 1500 J/KG AT BEST EXPECTED. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG E-W FRONT IN VICINITY OF AND JUST E OF SURFACE LOW AND SWD ALONG TRAILING SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS WILL SUPPORT 0-6 KM SHEAR FROM 40-45 KT AND 0-1 KM HELICITY FROM 200 TO 250 M2/S2. BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH PRIMARY THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE STRONGER FORCING AND WIND FIELDS WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...SWRN THROUGH S CNTRL TX... AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SERN TX WWD THROUGH SWRN TX. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL OK SWWD THROUGH W TX CONTINUES TO SETTLE SWD...AND WRN PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH PRE-EXISTING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SW TX. THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES MAY BE REINFORCED BY ONGOING CONVECTION SPREADING EWD THROUGH W AND CNTRL TX. ELY UPSLOPE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN POST FRONTAL REGIME OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE S OF THE BOUNDARIES WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE BY AFTERNOON WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP/INTENSIFY IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY ACROSS SW THROUGH CNTRL AND S CNTRL TX. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP IN UPSLOPE REGIME OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NM. THOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW IS NOT FORECAST TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG... SUFFICIENT DIRECTIONAL AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WITH WILL EXIST TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH MID EVENING. ..DIAL.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 12:33:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 07:33:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408201233.i7KCXVL08587@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201231 SWODY1 SPC AC 201228 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 201300Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S P07 10 NE FST 35 NW INK 40 NNW HOB 35 W LBB ABI AUS 45 SE HDO 40 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GFL LEB CON ORH 30 SSE POU ABE CXY MGW LEX BWG 50 NNW EVV 10 S LAF 40 N CLE 15 NE JHW ITH GFL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 80 ENE HVR 75 NNE BIL 25 WNW GCC 25 NNW CDR 35 E AIA IML 55 S GLD 30 S EHA 40 W CSM 15 SW OKC 25 SW BVO 25 NNW JLN 45 S UIN 40 N LAF 15 SE DTW ...CONT... 55 W 3B1 10 ESE BHB ...CONT... 30 SW PSX 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 40 WSW MRF 30 N MRF 45 ESE GDP 15 N GDP 45 ENE ELP 10 ENE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 30 N FAT 40 WNW TVL 30 SSW LMT 35 NNE MFR 35 W RDM 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 45 NNW 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT FROM PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO NEW ENGLAND.... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN TEXAS.... A BLOCK PERSISTS IN THE LARGE-SCALE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC/ALASKA. SPLIT BELTS OF STRONGER FLOW AROUND THIS FEATURE MERGE DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CANADIAN ROCKIES...THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD IN BROADLY CYCLONIC FASHION ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL U.S...TO THE SOUTH OF DEEP CLOSED LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. MEANWHILE...BELT OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES REMAINS SUPPRESSED RELATIVELY FAR TO THE SOUTH...ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES...DOWNSTREAM OF BROAD TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA/BAJA COAST. ...OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION... STRONG SPEED MAXIMUM EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHERN BRANCH IS EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODELS SUGGEST THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING AROUND SOUTHERN INTO EASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW TODAY. THIS WILL OCCUR AS WEAKER UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH/JET STREAK DIG FROM THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADIAN BORDER INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. JUST AHEAD OF SECONDARY IMPULSE...A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...INTO THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY BY LATE TONIGHT. DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...ENHANCED BY FORCING IN ENTRANCE REGION OF DOWNSTREAM NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAK...IS CONTRIBUTING TO UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD NOW GRADUALLY SPREADING INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THIS IS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW...WHICH BOTH ETA/GFS FORECAST TO DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT MIGRATES ALONG WEAK SURFACE FRONT EXTENDING NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME DISPARITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODEL RUNS WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF MORE RAPID SURFACE DEVELOPMENT...BUT STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS APPEARS LIKELY IN WARM SECTOR OF CYCLONE BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AS IT TRACKS FROM SOUTHERN INDIANA THROUGH SOUTHERN/EASTERN OHIO. MODELS INDICATE SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET ON THE ORDER OF 40 KT...BENEATH MODERATELY STRONG MID/UPPER FLOW...AND VEERING WIND FIELDS WITH HEIGHT IN MOIST AND INCREASINGLY BUOYANT BOUNDARY LAYER WITH UPPER 60S/NEAR 70F DEW POINTS. DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...SURFACE HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT RISK FOR VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...PARTICULARLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES ALSO POSSIBLE. THREAT MAY CONTINUE INTO PARTS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY EARLY EVENING...BEFORE DIMINISHING AS LOW PROGRESSES INTO MORE STABLE/ STABILIZING ENVIRONMENT EAST OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. ...NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES INTO NEW ENGLAND... MODELS SUGGEST BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ALONG STALLED FRONT ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS. SOME OF THESE MAY INTENSIFY INTO SEVERE STORMS WITH POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/POSSIBLY HAIL....AIDED BY FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES ON SOUTHERN FRINGE OF STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER JET. ...TEXAS... TO THE SOUTH OF RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...SOUTHERLY/EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...AND PARTS OF THE HILL COUNTRY/PECOS VALLEY...WILL MAINTAIN MOIST AND POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. AIDED BY THE APPROACH OF A HIGH-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY THE PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING HOURS. DESPITE RATHER WEAK WIND FIELDS...PRONOUNCED VEERING WITH HEIGHT BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL REGIME MAY CREATE SHEAR PROFILES MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS. PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE LARGE HAIL...BUT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS. ...GREAT BASIN... SIGNIFICANT CENTER OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERN BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS READILY EVIDENT IN LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER SOUTHEAST OREGON. AS IT PROGRESSES EASTWARD TODAY...THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...WHERE VERY WARM/DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER LIKELY WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW DOWNBURSTS. ..KERR/GUYER.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 16:03:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 11:03:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408201603.i7KG3iL11075@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201600 SWODY1 SPC AC 201557 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1057 AM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 201630Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 S P07 10 NE FST 35 NW INK 55 N HOB 30 WSW LBB 35 SSW ABI 25 N AUS 45 ESE SAT 40 SSE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW GFL 15 SW MWN 15 NNW PSM 20 SSE BOS 20 NNE JFK 30 NNW PHL 35 E HGR 20 W EKN 50 W HTS 40 WSW DAY 35 ESE FWA 20 SSW TOL 30 NNW CLE 25 SSW BUF 30 W SYR 35 NW GFL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 N GGW 80 WNW MLS 35 ESE SHR 25 W RAP 55 S PHP 30 NE MHN 10 SSE LBF 35 SSW MCK 60 ENE LAA 20 WSW LBL 20 SE GAG 35 S END 25 SW BVO 25 NNW JLN 10 W UIN 35 S CGX MTC ...CONT... 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 30 SSE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 50 NNE SAC 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS UPPER OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHWESTERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... UNSEASONABLY DEEP LOW SFC/ALOFT OVER HUDSON BAY SLOWLY FILLING AND MOVING NEWD. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT HAS BECOME PARALLEL TO STRONG WLYS ON S SIDE OF LOW AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM SRN ME WSWWD JUST N OF ALB AND ACROSS NWRN PA THEN WSWWD TO WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER ECENTRAL MO. FROM MO LOW FRONT EXTENDS SWWD TO SRN OK AND WRN TX. S OF THE FRONT FROM ERN OH VALLEY EWD ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND A VERY MOIST AIR MASS EXISTS WITH DEWPOINTS AOA 70F. THE MOST UNSTABLE AIR RESIDES E OF APPALACHIANS AS SFC TEMPS WARM THRU THE LOW/MID 80S. A COUPLE WEAK TROUGHS WILL BE A FACTOR IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TODAY. ONE IS MOVING EWD ACROSS NWRN TX WHILE ANOTHER NOTICEABLE IN W/V IMAGERY DROPS SEWD INTO NRN NV. ...NERN U.S... REF MCD 2056 HAVE SHIFTED THE SEVERE EMPHASIS EWD TO AREA OF BEST HEATING AND POTENTIAL INSTABILITY S OF STALLED FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS/PCPN OVER LOWER OH VALLEY. STRONG JET MAX ROTATING EWD ON THE S SIDE OF DEEP HUDSON BAY LOW WILL PROVIDE 40-50 KT OF SHEAR AS FAR S AS VICINITY OF STALLED FRONT NERN U.S. STRONG HEATING OCCURRING S OF FRONTAL ZONE WITH MINIMAL CIN REMAINING AS OF 16Z AS MUCAPES CLIMB TO AOA 3000 J/KG. WITH DOMINANT WLY COMPONENT...LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS WEAK...THUS CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE FOCUSED ON TERRAIN FEATURES AND SUBTLE BOUNDARIES. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG AND S OF STALLED FRONT AND GRADUALLY EXPAND IN COVERAGE THRU THE AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO BE WIND DAMAGE GIVEN THE 30-40 KT STEERING FLOW...WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY OF 6-6.5 C/KM AND WET BULB ZEROS ABOVE 10K FT LESS FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. 20 KT OF SHEAR IN THE SFC-1KM LAYER ALONG WITH THE VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL WHICH WILL NOT ONLY ENHANCE THREAT OF WIND/HAIL BUT RESULT IN A THREAT OF A COUPLE TORNADOES. BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING...STORMS LIKELY EVOLVING INTO SHORT LINES...CLUSTERS WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS UNTIL AFTER DARK. ...TX... BOUNDARIES BOTH FRONTAL AND THOSE REMAINING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION WILL BE FOCUS FOR REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AREA OF BEST INSTABILITY AND WEAKEST CAP IN SWRN TX WILL BE LOCATED ON SRN FRINGE OF 30-40 KT MID LEVEL WLYS THAT ARE MOVING ACROSS NWRN TX ATTM. ALTHOUGH SHEAR WILL BE MARGINAL...PULSE SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH MUCAPES TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS ARE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS. SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER DARK GIVEN THE MARGINAL UPPER SUPPORT AND MINIMAL SHEAR. ...NRN NV/NWRN UT... WEAK VORT MAX DROPPING SEWD INTO THIS AREA ALONG WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE. WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WILL PRECLUDE ORGANIZED STORMS AND THREAT SHOULD END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 20 19:35:44 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 14:35:44 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408201935.i7KJZmL13837@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 201934 SWODY1 SPC AC 201931 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0231 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 202000Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SW P07 10 SW FST 30 NNW HOB 40 W LBB 40 W ABI 35 WNW CLL 45 ESE AUS 10 E SAT 45 SE DRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ACY 35 SSW CHO 15 ENE BKW 30 S PKB 35 NNE ZZV 20 S ROC 15 WNW LEB 30 SSE AUG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S TUP 30 NNE TUP 60 N MSL 20 SE BNA 30 SSW CSV 15 W RMG 20 SW ANB 30 WSW TCL 25 S TUP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 50 N GGW 80 WNW MLS 35 ESE SHR 25 W RAP 55 S PHP 30 NE MHN 10 SSE LBF 35 SSW MCK 60 ENE LAA 20 WSW LBL 20 SE GAG 35 S END 15 N TUL 10 S JLN 45 NE VIH 20 ENE CMI 35 ESE DTW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 30 S SAD 50 SSE IGM 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 50 NNE SAC 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM ...CONT... 50 ENE CRP 35 NW LRD. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF SRN TN AND NRN AL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF TX... ...DELMARVA INTO NEW ENGLAND... 18Z MESOANALYSIS INDICATED PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE FROM CON SWWD TO NEAR IPT TO A WEAK MESOLOW N OF ZZV. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO MID 70S HAVE ALLOWED AIRMASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF LARGE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE OH VALLEY TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITHIN THIS UNSTABLE AIR AND ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHERE CAP HAS BEEN LOCALLY ERODED FROM PARTS OF CNTRL PA/S-CNTRL NY NEWD INTO NRN MA/VT. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE SAME GENERAL AREAS. THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS REMAIN VEERED TO WLY OR SWLY...PRESENCE OF 40-50KT MID-LEVEL FLOW IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SPEED SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...FAVORABLY LOW LFC/LCL HEIGHTS AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INVOF FRONTAL ZONE SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WITH ANY SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE APPALACHIANS OF WV/WRN VA MAY POSE AN DAMAGING WIND OR HAIL THREAT AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP EWD INTO MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE ACROSS NRN VA. THOUGH WIND SHEAR IS WEAKER THAN POINTS TO THE N...DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DICTATES INCLUSION OF CATEGORICAL RISK. ...SRN TN/NRN AL... POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTIVE COMPLEX EVOLVING FROM W OF MSL TO W OF TCL. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITHIN A ZONE OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS. MODEST SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40KTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /I.E. MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG/ SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...TX... PRIMARY SYNOPTIC FRONT EXTENDS FROM E-CNTRL NM EWD ACROSS N TX THIS AFTERNOON WITH WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM N OF CLL TO N OF AUS TO SW OF SJT. GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNABLE UPSTREAM DISTURBANCES...IT APPEARS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND/OR UPSLOPE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CNTRL/ERN NM WILL PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR THE INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION. REGIONAL VWPS AND PROFILERS INDICATE THAT STRONGER MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD ACROSS THE ARKLATEX REGION. HOWEVER...STRONG VEERING WITH HEIGHT /PER 19Z SJT VWP/ WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ CAPABLE OF MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ...GREAT BASIN... STORMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD ACROSS NRN NV. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ..MEAD.. 08/20/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 01:08:00 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 20 Aug 2004 20:08:00 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408210108.i7L188L09944@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210106 SWODY1 SPC AC 210103 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0803 PM CDT FRI AUG 20 2004 VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE FST 25 E INK 35 NNW MAF 40 SW ABI 20 SSE ACT 55 SE AUS 50 ENE COT 40 ENE DRT 25 ENE FST. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE DOV 10 W NHK 25 SSE MRB 40 E AOO 45 ENE BFD 25 S UCA 10 SSE RUT 20 WNW PWM 35 SE AUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 40 SSE HUL ...CONT... 55 N GGW 35 N BIL 20 ESE WRL 60 WSW RAP 40 NE AIA 35 ENE AKO 25 W LHX 30 WSW DHT 20 ENE CDS 10 NNE ADM 35 W UNO 40 NNE EVV 35 WNW CMH ERI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ENE CRP 35 NW LRD ...CONT... 55 SSW DMN 45 NNW DUG 55 E BLH 45 NW NID 15 NNW FAT 40 W TVL 20 SE RBL 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE CEC 40 E EUG 55 WSW PDT 25 E EPH 40 NNE 4OM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF SW AND S CNTRL TX... ...NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND... EARLY THIS EVENING A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL MAINE SWWD THROUGH SE NY...NRN PA AND CNTRL OH. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN NEW ENGLAND WWD INTO CNTRL PA WHERE IT INTERSECTS A N-S ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THE WARM SECTOR S OF THESE BOUNDARIES REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. A BROAD FETCH OF 45-50 KT MID LEVEL FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF UPPER TROUGH ANCHORED OVER ERN CANADA HAS MAINTAINED SUFFICIENT 0-6 KM SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WAS OBSERVED MOVING INTO WRN PA. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE INTO PARTS OF THE NERN U.S. AND SRN NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY ENHANCE LIFT AND PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING INTO MUCH OF TONIGHT. THREAT FOR MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL MAY PERSIST INTO MID-LATE EVENING. HOWEVER...THE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ASSOCIATED WITH NOCTURNAL COOLING SUGGESTS OVERALL ACTIVITY SHOULD UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN INTENSITY. ...TX... A SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM ERN TX N OF LUFKIN WWD TO S OF SAN ANGELO AND FARTHER W INTO SWRN TX JUST S OF MIDLAND. THE ATMOSPHERE ALONG AND S OF THIS FEATURE REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2500 TO 3000 J/KG. STORMS THAT DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON IN CONVERGENCE AXIS ALONG THE BOUNDARY PERSIST OVER NERN PORTIONS OF THE TRANS PECOS REGION. LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW REMAINS RATHER WEAK...SO IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW LONG ACTIVITY CAN PERSIST GIVEN NOCTURNAL COOLING AND STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER. CURRENT RADAR DATA SHOW THE CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER MASON AND KIMBLE COUNTIES HAVE BECOME FORWARD PROPAGATING...AND SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 10-15 KT MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH LOW LEVEL STORM RELATIVE INFLOW AND CONVERGENCE ALONG LEADING OUTFLOW TO SUSTAIN SEVERE STORMS NEXT FEW HOURS. ...SERN U.S... CLUSTERS OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUE THROUGH PARTS OF AL/GA AND SRN MS THIS EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELL CONVECTION. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS NEXT 1-2 HOURS. HOWEVER...OVERALL TREND SHOULD BE FOR ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. ..DIAL.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 05:42:53 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 00:42:53 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408210542.i7L5gxL29433@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 210540 SWODY1 SPC AC 210538 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 211200Z - 221200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 NNW ANJ 35 SSE FRM 45 WSW YKN 35 ESE PHP 10 ESE REJ 10 WNW GDV 60 E BIL 30 SE WRL 20 NNE SNY 30 S HLC 40 WNW GAG 10 ENE CSM 30 SSW MLC 35 NE LIT 20 ESE MKL 20 NNE JKL 30 NW MSV 25 NNW BML ...CONT... 15 ESE PSX 20 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 WNW MRF 45 NW GDP 65 NNW SVC 25 ENE PRC 55 WSW LAS 60 ENE MER 20 SE MHS 30 SSW ONP. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH THE CAROLINAS... SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT ENEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...OH VALLEY AND INTO THE NERN U.S. SATURDAY. VEERING LOW-MID LEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF THIS FEATURE WILL PROVIDE IMPETUS FOR COLD FRONT TO MOVE EWD OFF NERN U.S. SEABOARD EARLY SATURDAY AND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR SATURDAY EVENING. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS AROUND 70 WILL PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR FROM THE MID ATLANTIC SWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. HOWEVER...WIDESPREAD CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS AND MID LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING SRN STREAM IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE SERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD THROUGH THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION. MOREOVER-LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN WITH TIME AS LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NEWD AWAY FROM THIS AREA DURING THE DAY. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD EWD ALONG AND E OF THE FRONT WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY DEEP LAYER SHEAR...WITH SOME THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND OVER PARTS OF VA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE THAT ENOUGH DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR TO SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST SEVERE THREAT. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE FRONT ACROSS TX IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE AS LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND SLY FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BECOME AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF WEAKENING BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG POSSIBLE. STORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. HOWEVER... DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER THAN ON FRIDAY. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR BOUNDARY TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE MAY SERVE AS LIMITING FACTORS FOR AN ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. OTHER STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CO AND NM AND IN VICINITY OF DEVELOPING LEE TROUGH. MULTICELL STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH MID EVENING. SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO WARRANT MORE THAN LOW PROBABILITIES. ...NRN PLAINS THROUGH UPPER MS VALLEY... A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET AND FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...RICHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS CONFINED TO S OF COLD FRONT IN TX...AND THERE WILL BE INSUFFICIENT TIME FOR RICHER MOISTURE TO ADVECT NWD INTO THIS AREA. THEREFORE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR FOR SEVERE STORMS. STILL...MID LEVEL ASCENT WITHIN A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT HIGH BASED CONVECTION ABOVE RELATIVELY DRY BOUNDARY LAYERS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...BUT OVERALL THREAT APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK. ..DIAL.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 12:58:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 07:58:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408211258.i7LCwkL27801@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211256 SWODY1 SPC AC 211253 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 211300Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE OAJ 45 NE RWI NHK 25 SE DOV. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W ANJ 30 W OSH 30 NE ALO 25 WNW DSM 45 WSW YKN 40 SE PHP 15 ESE REJ 70 WSW DIK 35 NNW SHR 45 NW RWL 25 SE FCL 20 SSE GLD 55 SW HLC 15 SW DDC 60 N CDS 35 S LTS 30 WSW ADM 30 NNE HOT 15 SE MKL 35 NNW JKL 10 W BFD 25 SSE EFK 30 S HUL ...CONT... 20 ESE PSX 15 SE DRT ...CONT... 65 SSE ELP 45 E DMN 35 ESE PRC 50 WSW LAS 55 SE TVL 60 SW SVE 30 SSW ONP. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS EXTREME ERN PARTS OF NC/VA INTO DELMARVA... ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... EARLY VSBL SATELLITE PICTURES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE POCKETS OF HEATING THIS MORNING FROM THE CAROLINAS NWD TO DELMARVA/SRN NJ. MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT RICH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE EXISTS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW-MID 70S. GIVEN HEATING... DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR...BUT 12Z SOUNDINGS SAMPLED POOR LAPSE RATES INLAND...LIKELY A NEGATIVE FACTOR FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS. HOWEVER...MOREHEAD CITY AND WALLOPS ISLAND SOUNDINGS INDICATE SLIGHTLY STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG THE COAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A STRONG MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS AND IT IS EXTRAPOLATED TO BE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION DURING PEAK HEATING. THUS...TSTMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE CREST OF THE APPALACHIANS/COLD FRONT ARE LIKELY TO INCREASE IN NUMBER AND MOVE EWD THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE INCREASING WSWLY UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM AND SLIGHTLY STEEPER LAPSE RATES ALONG THE COAST...HAVE OPTED TO ADD A SMALL SLGT RISK FROM NERN NC NWD THROUGH SERN VA INTO THE DELMARVA AREA FOR POSSIBLE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ...CNTRL/SRN FL... 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM MIAMI AND TAMPA EXHIBIT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AOA 2 INCHES WITH INDICATIONS OF LESS SATURATED AIR CENTERED NEAR H7. H5 TEMPERATURES OF MINUS 8C COUPLED WITH THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL LEAD TO A VERY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT TODAY WITH SBCAPES 3500-4000 J/KG AND LIS TO MINUS 10C. DEEP MOIST CONVECTION SHOULD FAVOR SEABREEZE/OUTFLOW COLLISIONS AND THE THERMODYNAMIC SET-UP APPEARS VERY FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD WET MICROBURSTS...HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO/ WATERSPOUT. ...SRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LONG-LIVED TSTM CLUSTER MOVING THROUGH THE TX PNHDL THIS MORNING SEEMS TO BE TIED WITH A WEAK MIDLEVEL JET STREAK/DARKENING MOVING THROUGH SRN NM. THE TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED FEATURE WILL BE ENTERING A MORE CONFLUENT MID/UPPER FLOW REGIME THROUGH THE DAY AND SHOULD WEAKEN. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL FEATURES ARE APT TO BECOME ILL-DEFINED AS PRESSURES FALL ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...AIDING IN AN INCREASED SLY FLOW ON THE PLAINS. THIS WILL TEND TO MAINTAIN OR ADVECT THE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS NWD ALONG THE DEVELOPING LEE-TROUGH. MODIFYING THE MIDLAND SOUNDING FOR 91/62 YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2100 J/KG AND SIMILAR VALUES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SWRN TX INTO ERN NM/SRN CO. THUS...TSTMS WILL LIKELY INITIATE IN THESE AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG TODAY GIVEN WEAKENING BOUNDARIES AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE CORRESPONDINGLY WEAK... INDICATIVE OF MAINLY MULTICELL STORM STRUCTURES. BUT...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL STILL MAKE ISOLD LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VLY... SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH/COLD FRONT OVER SRN SASK AND MT THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE RAPIDLY SEWD ACROSS THE DAKS THIS AFTERNOON AND MN TONIGHT. THOUGH THERE WILL LIKELY BE STRONG THERMAL/MOISTURE ADVECTION OCCURRING TODAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...IT IS NOT LIKELY THAT QUALITY BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE. WHILE THIS MAY LIMIT THE SEVERITY OF THE TSTMS...THE LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD AUGMENT DOWNDRAFT/ ISOLD DAMAGING WIND PRODUCTION. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 16:11:19 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 11:11:19 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408211611.i7LGBPL28680@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211608 SWODY1 SPC AC 211605 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1105 AM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 211630Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW ILM 25 NE FAY 20 NE RDU 25 S DCA 30 WNW EWR 30 E POU 20 SE BOS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ESE DUG 50 ENE PHX 45 N NID 50 SE FAT 25 E MER 30 W TVL 15 NE SVE 85 E 4LW BNO 40 SSW RDM OTH ...CONT... 25 SSE CMX 35 W CWA 20 ENE MCW 35 ENE SUX 50 W YKN 40 SE PHP 40 N RAP 20 N 81V 30 S GCC 45 N LAR CYS 45 NNW IML 25 NNW MCK 50 E LBL 10 WNW CSM 50 ESE SPS 50 ENE PBF 45 E BNA 40 ENE CRW 35 S IPT 10 WNW LEB 35 NW EPM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD THRU MID ATLANTIC STATES... ...SYNOPSIS... LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN TEMPORARILY DEAMPLIFYING ACROSS CONUS AS DEEP LOW HUDSON BAY AND ASSOCIATED STRONG WIND FIELDS SHIFT NEWD AWAY FROM NERN U.S. A VIGOROUS TROUGH DEVELOPS SEWD TO OFF PAC NW COAST BY SUN AM WITH A FAST MOVING LOW AMPLITUDE S/WV DOWNSTREAM MOVING FROM SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA TO VICINITY NRN MN BY LATE TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MAKING SLOW EWD PROGRESS EXTENDS FROM WRN NEW ENGLAND SWWD ALONG APPALACHIANS TRAILING ACROSS NRN AL/TN BORDER CENTRAL AR INTO SWRN TX. EXTENSIVE CLOUDINESS PRECEDES FRONT SRN ENGLAND SWWD...HOWEVER E OF BLUE RIDGE INTO VA/NC STRONG HEATING IS OCCURRING THIS MORNING WITH LITTLE INITIAL CLOUD COVER. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS AHEAD OF FRONT FROM ERN DELMARVA SWD BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING. LITTLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN CANADIAN PROVINCES...HOWEVER STRONG WARM ADVECTION COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT STRONG CONVECTION BY TONIGHT. SLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW SRN HIGH PLAINS WITH LEE TROUGHING WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO WORK NWD TODAY. ...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD TO MID ATLANTIC COASTAL PLAIN... WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S AND TEMPERATURES RISING THRU THE 80S...THE AIR MASS IS BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE E OF BLUE RIDGE ATTM WITH MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30-35KT SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION WHILE SFC-1KM SHEAR AROUND 20KT GIVEN THE LARGE INSTABILITY ALSO SUGGESTS POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. CAP DISSIPATES BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING EWD ACROSS COASTAL PLAIN. REF MCD 2068 SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY...POSSIBLY AS FAR N AS SRN NEW ENGLAND AS TD'S TO LOW/MID 70S RESULT IN MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG CT/RI WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER FROM 40-45KT ALONG WITH SOME VEERING IN LOW LEVELS. PRIMARY THREAT THIS FAR N WOULD BE WIND DAMAGE AS LINE OF STORMS ACROSS ERN PA CONTINUES TO INCREASE EWD DURING AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL DETAILS IN MCD 2068. ...FL... REF MCD 2067 PULSE SEVERE POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE GREATER ACROSS FL PENINSULA TODAY GIVEN THE RELATIVELY COOL MID LEVEL TEMPS AND VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. DETAILS ARE AVAILABLE IN MCD 2067. ...NRN PLAINS... WITH LACK OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE...ABOUT THE ONLY CONCERN WITH THE STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF SYSTEM MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL BE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. STORMS WILL INCREASE IN THE WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT EWD ACROSS NRN PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WITH LAPSE RATES AROUND 8C/KM AND INVERTED V TYPE SOUNDINGS STRONG WINDS WILL BE LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH BASED STORMS THAT WILL BE MOVING EWD ACROSS ND/NRN SD LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. MINIMAL CAPE PRECLUDES A RISK AREA ATTM. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WORKING NWD WITH LEE TROUGH DEVELOPING HIGH PLAINS. WHILE SHEAR IS WEAK...AIR MASS DEVELOPS MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH MINIMAL CAP. A FEW STRONG/SEVERE PULSE STORMS ARE LIKELY AS FAR N AS SERN CO. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 21 19:48:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 14:48:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408211948.i7LJmcL05727@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 211946 SWODY1 SPC AC 211943 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0243 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 212000Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE CRE 20 S FAY 25 NE DOV 25 ENE ACY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW ISP 15 S PSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE CMX 35 W CWA 20 ENE MCW 35 ENE SUX 50 W YKN 40 SE PHP 40 N RAP 20 N 81V 30 S GCC 45 N LAR CYS 45 NNW IML 25 NNW MCK 50 E LBL 10 WNW CSM 50 ESE SPS 50 ENE PBF 45 E BNA 40 ENE CRW 35 S IPT 10 WNW LEB 35 NW EPM ...CONT... 35 ESE DUG 50 ENE PHX 45 N NID 50 SE FAT 25 E MER 30 W TVL 15 NE SVE 85 E 4LW BNO 40 SSW RDM OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER SERN NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SRN NJ SWD ALONG THE NC COAST... ...SERN NEW ENGLAND... STRONG TO SEVERE LINE OF TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON FROM N OF BOS TO NEAR ISP. 40-50KT 500MB WINDS IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED HAIL EWD THROUGH CAPE COD. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2071. ...SERN VA AND ERN NC... ADDITIONAL CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE MOUTH OF CHESAPEAKE BAY SWD ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN. MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT THIS ACTIVITY IS LARGELY BEING FOCUSED ALONG CONFLUENCE LINE AND WITHIN AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG WSWLY LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WINDS OBSERVED ON LOCAL VWPS SHOULD SUPPORT EMBEDDED BOWING STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL. ...NRN PLAINS... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OVER CNTRL/SRN SASKATCHEWAN WITH DOWNSTREAM REGION OF ASCENT SPREADING EWD/SEWD ACROSS CNTRL/SRN MANITOBA AND WRN/CNTRL ND. WHILE BOUNDARY-LAYER REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S...THERMAL AXIS HAS DEVELOPED FROM SURFACE LOW OVER WRN ND SWD ACROSS WRN SD. THIS HEATING IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS RESULTING IN SBCAPES OF 400-700 J/KG. ONGOING BAND OF MAINLY ELEVATED STORMS W OF THE MO RIVER WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE SURFACE-BASED WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON FROM VICINITY OF SURFACE LOW WSWWD ALONG COLD FRONT AND SWD ALONG LEE TROUGH. DEEPLY-MIXED CHARACTER OF BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS WARM SECTOR SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS MAY TEND TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO NRN/CNTRL MN ALONG STRENGTHENING LLJ AXIS. INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...EFFECTIVELY LIMITING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BENEATH MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF 12Z DNR/ABQ SOUNDINGS/ IS ALLOWING AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE E OF HIGHER TERRAIN AND LEE TROUGH WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1500 J/KG. CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG AT SOME LOCATIONS WITH A WEAKENING CAP. STORMS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN SHOULD INTENSIFY AS THEY ENCOUNTER STRONGER INSTABILITY ALONG ADJACENT PLAINS WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED WINDS/HAIL. FARTHER S AND E...MESOANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW SEVERAL BOUNDARIES PRESENT ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL/SRN TX. MODIFICATION OF 12Z MAF/DRT SOUNDINGS FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS YIELDS MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG AND A DECREASING CAP. THOUGH REGIONAL VWPS/PROFILES INDICATE RELATIVELY WEAK MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...CONSIDERABLE VEERING WITH HEIGHT IS BEING OBSERVED INVOF THESE BOUNDARIES. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL. ...CNTRL/SRN FL PENINSULA... AFTERNOON RADAR MOSAIC INDICATES NE-SW ORIENTED CONVECTIVE BAND FROM NE OF ORL TO E OF SRQ. TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S WHEN COUPLED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S IS RESULTING IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE S OF ONGOING STORMS. CONTINUED INTERACTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE BAND WITH BOTH W AND E SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED WIND/HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS. ..MEAD.. 08/21/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 01:01:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 21 Aug 2004 20:01:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408220101.i7M11fL02553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220059 SWODY1 SPC AC 220056 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0756 PM CDT SAT AUG 21 2004 VALID 220100Z - 221200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE GLD 50 NNW GCK CDS INK 20 NNE P07 40 WSW P07 30 NNE MRF 15 ENE CNM 45 SSW CVS 15 N CAO 15 NNE LAA 30 SSE GLD. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW DMN 15 ESE SVC 40 ESE IGM 30 NE BFL 25 E MER 45 WNW TVL 15 ESE LMT 20 WSW BKE 15 W 3DU 40 N 3DU 90 WNW FCA ...CONT... 85 NE MQT 35 W CWA 20 ENE MCW 30 NNW OMA 15 NW CNK 40 N P28 20 WNW END 40 SW TUL 45 NNW HOT 15 SE TUP 15 S AVL 20 SSW GSO 20 ENE WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SWD INTO W TX... OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS SURGED SWD AND WWD ACROSS MUCH OF TX...WITH BOUNDARY NOW EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE TX COASTAL REGION WWD ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND THEN ARCING NWWD FROM NEAR DRT TO NEAR MAF. SW OF THIS BOUNDARY -- AND NWD INTO ERN CO / WRN KS -- MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS...WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE INDICATED. RELATIVELY WEAK / WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION IS RESULTING IN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS. THE MOST FAVORABLE WIND FIELD IS INDICATED ACROSS W TX WHERE 15 KT SURFACE SELY WINDS BENEATH MID-LEVEL WNWLYS IS RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR MID-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION. LARGE HAIL WITH A COUPLE OF THE MORE INTENSE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT...WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE. AS LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS THIS EVENING...SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD MAY OFFSET SLOW DIURNAL LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION SUCH THAT ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT LINGERS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ...ERN CAROLINAS... BROKEN LINE OF WEAKENING STORMS CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL AND NERN NC / NRN SC ATTM...SOUTH OF WHICH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE REMAINS. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING WITH TIME...AND THIS COMBINED WITH DIURNAL STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS THAT ONLY A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT REMAINS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 05:30:32 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 00:30:32 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408220530.i7M5UiL17830@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 220528 SWODY1 SPC AC 220526 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1226 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 221200Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W 4BQ 45 SW BIL 30 SSE HLN 30 NNW HLN 30 NW GTF 20 WSW HVR 40 NW GGW 20 NE GDV 55 NW REJ 50 W 4BQ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 55 ESE ALM 65 SSW GNT 30 WSW CDC 40 S TVL 50 WNW SVE 30 SSW MHS 55 ESE EKA 15 ENE EKA 40 ENE CEC 35 ENE BLI ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 40 NNE RWF 55 ENE ELO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE MTC 30 N BRL 45 SW UIN 20 ESE BLV 40 NNE MKL 15 ENE MSL 35 NNW HSE ...CONT... 20 WNW EFK 20 SW SYR 25 NW JHW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND ERN MT... ...SYNOPSIS... SURFACE BOUNDARY AT THE LEADING EDGE OF COOL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AND SWWD TOWARD THE NRN ROCKIES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE PERIOD AS SURFACE LOW INITIALLY FORECAST NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD DEEPENS AND MOVES RAPIDLY NEWD INTO CENTRAL QUEBEC. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ONLY SLOWLY SWD ACROSS NEB / IA...AND SHOULD LINGER ACROSS MT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING EWD AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. ALOFT...STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW IS INITIALLY FORECAST ACROSS S CENTRAL QUEBEC / THE WRN UPPER LAKES REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL ALSO SHIFT RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO QUEBEC BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS ID AND INTO MT / WY WITH TIME WHILE TAKING ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT. FURTHER S -- ACROSS THE SRN 2/3 OF THE COUNTRY...A GENERALLY WEAK UPPER FLOW PATTERN IS FORECAST. ...CENTRAL AND ERN MT... QG FORCING IS FORECAST TO INCREASE DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING ACROSS MT AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS EWD AND SELY LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES IN RESPONSE. HOWEVER...LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- AND THUS ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION -- IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. EXPECT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED / HIGH-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER / MOVE OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH 40 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS...THOUGH LIMITED MOISTURE / INSTABILITY AND HIGH CLOUD BASES SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LIMITED TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. BY EARLY EVENING...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO AROUND 45 KT FROM THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS ERN MT. RESULTING WARM ADVECTION BENEATH INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF CONVECTION...WHICH SHOULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO ND. DESPITE INCREASINGLY STRONG / VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD...SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION DECREASES THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS...AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY ABOVE STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER LIMITS ANY HAIL POTENTIAL. ...WI / SRN MN / IA AREA... ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS THIS REGION IN WARM ADVECTION REGIME ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE ERN UPPER LAKES / ERN ONTARIO REGION BY AFTERNOON...AND THUS EXPECT WEAK LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE TO DEVELOP OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. NONETHELESS...LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG SEWD-MOVING FRONT MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. STRONGEST MID-LEVEL NWLYS SHOULD REMAIN NE OF ANY APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY...BUT SUFFICIENT FLOW SHOULD EXTEND SWWD ACROSS THIS REGION TO SUPPORT A LIMITED THREAT FOR ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. ANY WIND / HAIL THREAT SHOULD DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AS LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS STABILIZES. ...HIGH PLAINS... MODERATE INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITHIN WEAKLY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ALONG LEE TROUGH BY AFTERNOON...AND PERHAPS ACROSS REMNANT OUTFLOW ACROSS CENTRAL / NRN TX. HOWEVER...GENERALLY WEAK DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SUGGESTS MAINLY DISORGANIZED PULSE-TYPE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS. AS LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS DURING THE EVENING...SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE SHEAR MAY SUPPORT MULTICELL OR PERHAPS WEAKLY-ROTATING STORMS...AND THUS A PERIOD OF SOMEWHAT GREATER SEVERE POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...STABILIZING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LACK OF UPPER SUPPORT SUGGEST THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 12:59:43 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 07:59:43 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408221300.i7MD02L22129@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221257 SWODY1 SPC AC 221254 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0754 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 221300Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW GGW 20 SSE GDV 30 WNW 4BQ 40 S BIL 20 SE HLN 50 SSW CTB 55 WNW CTB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 55 ESE ALM 65 SSW GNT 30 WSW CDC 30 S U31 50 WNW SVE 30 SSW MHS 55 ESE EKA 15 ENE EKA 50 E OTH 15 SW AST ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 15 NNW MKT 20 ENE IWD ...CONT... 25 NE TOL 35 ESE MLI 20 NNW IRK 30 WNW COU 10 SSW MVN 30 SW CKV 35 W CSV 45 NW HSS 10 S HKY 35 N HSE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE BTV 20 SW SYR 25 NW JHW. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/ERN MT... ...CNTRL/ERN MT... LEADING EDGE OF STRONGEST VERTICAL MOTION/HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PAC NW UPPER TROUGH WERE BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO ID AND SHOULD TRANSLATE ENEWD INTO WRN MT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL ENHANCE THE DIURNAL CYCLE AND MOUNTAIN CONVECTION WILL GROW INTO NUMEROUS HIGH-BASED TSTMS BY MID-AFTERNOON OVER ERN ID/WRN MT/WRN WY. SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL EXIST VCNTY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WHERE A ZONE OF NEAR 50F DEW POINTS WILL EXTEND FROM SERN-CNTRL-NCNTRL MT. MLCAPES WILL GENERALLY STAY AOB 1000 J/KG. COMBO OF INCREASING SWLY FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND TSTMS ROOTING INTO A MORE UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION/ ORGANIZATION OF THE STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE WIND GUSTS OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...WITH THE STORM MODE FAVORING MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS/LINES AND PERHAPS ISOLD SUPERCELLS. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MT AND INTO THE WRN ND AND ADJACENT ALTA/SASK OVERNIGHT. BUT...GIVEN MORE STABLE AIR MASS FARTHER EAST...THE SEVERE RISKS SHOULD BE ISOLD AT BEST. ...UPPER MS VLY AREA... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE NRN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VLY REGIONS THIS MORNING WILL TRANSLATE SEWD INTO THE MIDDLE/LOWER GREAT LAKES BY TONIGHT. ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SETTLE SEWD...BUT BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN LATER TODAY AND BECOME SITUATED ACROSS CNTRL/SRN WI AND WWD ACROSS NRN IA. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ENHANCE WARM ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY AREA AND MAY AID IN TSTM INITIATION/MAINTENANCE FROM CNTRL/SRN WI WWD INTO NRN IA. SBCAPES WILL APPROACH 2500 J/KG AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT STRONGEST VERTICAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. MOREOVER...THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING TROUGH. THUS...ENVIRONMENT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME LESS FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS. THUS...ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES FOR ISOLD SEVERE HAIL/WIND ARE JUSTIFIED. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... INCREASING WLY LOW-MIDLEVEL FLOW IN WAKE OF A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS WILL LIKELY SHARPEN THE LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM SWRN NEB SWD TO THE CAPROCK IN THE TX PNHDL THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THE SURFACE CONVERGENCE... BUT IT IS DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT WHERE...IF ANY...GREATER COVERAGE WILL BE LOCATED . LATEST SREF OFFERS MANY SOLUTIONS AND APPEARS TO CONFIRM THE LARGE DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY. THE GREATER PROBABILITY FOR TSTMS MAY EXIST OVER THE TX/OK PNHDLS AND SWRN KS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. THOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL REMAIN WEAK...MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG SUGGEST THAT MULTI-CELL PULSE SEVERE /PERHAPS ISOLD WEAKLY ROTATING UPDRAFTS/ COULD OCCUR WITH ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUST. THE SEVERE THREATS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING WITH ONSET OF DIURNAL COOLING. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 16:28:16 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 11:28:16 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408221628.i7MGSQL21019@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 221625 SWODY1 SPC AC 221622 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1122 AM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 221630Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW GGW 20 SSE GDV 30 WNW 4BQ 40 S BIL 40 NNW WEY 30 NNW HLN 55 WNW CTB. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW END 20 NW FSI 15 SSE LTS 55 NNW CDS 60 S LBL 20 SE LBL 10 NNE DDC 50 ENE DDC 30 SW ICT 25 SSW END. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E TOL 25 SSE MMO 30 NNE UIN 25 W STL 20 ENE CGI 60 E MKL 10 S CSV 35 NNE TYS 50 E TRI 25 NE CLT 35 N HSE ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 30 E RWF 20 ENE IWD ...CONT... 15 S ELP 20 ENE TCS 65 SSW GNT 50 E SGU 50 NE DRA 60 SE BIH 35 S BIH 50 WNW BIH 65 ESE TVL 30 NNW U31 40 ENE WMC 70 N WMC 25 N LMT 20 NNE OTH. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF MONTANA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WRN OK/ERN TX PANHANDLE AND PORTIONS OF SRN KS... ...MONTANA... COLD UPR LOW MOVING EWD ACROSS SRN B.C. TODAY WITH ATTENDANT VIGOROUS NEGATIVELY TILTED S/WV TROUGH INLAND ACROSS WRN WA/OR ATTM. TROUGH WILL ROTATE ENEWD ACROSS WRN MT AND SRN ID DURING AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG 50-60KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX. RATHER MOIST PAC AIR MASS SPREADING NEWD AHEAD OF TROUGH WITH ONGOING EMBEDDED CONVECTION CURRENTLY NERN ORE INTO FAR WRN MT. AT THE SURFACE CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED SWD INTO NRN/ERN MT E OF DIVIDE...WHILE PAC FRONT AT 15Z APPROACHING GEG THEN SWWD INTO SRN OR. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SWRN MT WITH APPROACH OF S/WV TROUGH WITH SUFFICIENT HEATING E OF DIVIDE GIVEN AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. RATHER THAN SURFACE FRONT THE EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF DEEP LAYER CLOUDINESS NOW SPREADING INTO WRN MT. THIS IS A RESULT OF LARGE SCALE UVV'S WITH TROUGH AND MID LEVEL COOLING NOTED AT 700MB BETWEEN GEG AND GTF AT 12Z. WITH 40-50 KT OF SFC-6KM SHEAR ACCOMPANYING S/WV TROUGH...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY/MID AFTERNOON WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL GIVEN THE 7-8 C/KM LAPSE RATES AND FAST STORM MOTION. SHEAR PROFILES WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS MOVE EWD INTO MT PLAINS AS CANADIAN FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS AREA ENHANCES LOW LEVEL SHEAR. ANY SUPERCELL WOULD INCREASE SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY THREAT. ...WRN OK AND VICINITY... SRN BRANCH OF WLYS EXTENDS EWD ACROSS NRN MEX AND SRN PLAINS. WEAK TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS TX PANHANDLE WITH UPSTREAM CLOSED LOW OFF NRN BAJA. MCV FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION LOCATED OK PANHANDLE ATTM WILL DRIFT SLOWLY ENEWD AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH THIS PM. SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW 15-25 KT IS TRANSPORTING A VERY MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS NWD INTO OK AND SRN KS ATTM WITH DEWPOINTS RISING TO AOA 70F. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM AND EXPECTED HEATING SUFFICIENT TO WEAKEN CAP AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO 90F OR ABOVE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN AREA OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ON SURFACE BOUNDARIES ASSOCIATED WITH MCV. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO 3000 J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR...ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE LIKELY EARLY IN THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL GIVEN MARGINAL SHEAR. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EVENING POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS VICINITY CENTRAL KS/OK BORDER AREA WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL UNTIL LATE EVENING. ...REMAINDER OF PLAINS... SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AGAIN TODAY ALONG WITH A WEAK CAP BY MID AFTERNOON FOR ISOLATED PULSE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS FROM BIG BEND NWD INTO KS. OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS TO 30-35 KT CONTINUING THE NWD INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. WARM ADVECTION ACROSS STALLED CANADIAN FRONTAL ZONE NEB/SD WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WITH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE INCREASING AMOUNT OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMS NWD. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 22 20:06:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 15:06:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408222006.i7MK6CL05147@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 222001 SWODY1 SPC AC 221958 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0258 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 222000Z - 231200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 N OLF 30 SSE GDV 35 W 4BQ 35 WNW COD 20 NE MQM 30 S 3DU 50 NNW FCA. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N CSM 10 SW CSM 25 WNW LTS 40 WNW CDS 25 ENE AMA 20 SSW LBL 35 SSW DDC 40 WSW P28 45 ENE GAG 35 N CSM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 S ELP 20 ENE TCS 65 SSW GNT 35 ESE PGA 50 NE DRA 60 SE BIH 35 S BIH 50 WNW BIH 65 ESE TVL 30 ENE NFL 20 SE WMC 75 SSE 4LW 30 WSW LMT 20 NNE OTH ...CONT... 65 NNW DVL 45 NNE ATY 10 N RWF 35 NW IWD ...CONT... 30 E TOL 30 SSE MMO 25 SSW PIA ALN 20 ENE CGI 60 E MKL 10 S CSV 35 NNE TYS 50 E TRI 25 NE CLT 35 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF MT... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF PORTIONS OF THE TX PNHDL AND WRN OK... ...MT... EARLY AFTERNOON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VIGOROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA LIFTING NEWD ACROSS ERN WA WITH AN ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN SWLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 45-55KTS NOW SPREADING EWD ACROSS WRN MT. AT THE SURFACE...RESPONSE TO APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM IS RESULTING IN A REGION OF CONCENTRATED PRESSURE FALLS AND CYCLOGENESIS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MOREOVER...BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER HAVE ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 70S OVER PORTIONS OF WRN MT AND WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S IS RESULTING IN MLCAPES OF AROUND 500 J/KG. CONTINUED HEATING/DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH AN EXPECTED MARKED INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. REGIONAL VWPS ALREADY INDICATE SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FOR ADDITIONAL SHORT TERM GUIDANCE...PLEASE SEE MCD 2076/WW 774. UPSCALE GROWTH OF STORMS INTO CLUSTERS OR AN MCS IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS SPREADING EWD ACROSS CNTRL/ERN MT. STORMS MAY SHIFT E OF THIS AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING...HOWEVER WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...TX PNHDL/WRN OK... STRONG INSOLATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AND RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /REF 12Z ABQ/DDC/MAF SOUNDINGS/ ARE ALLOWING AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON TO S OF VORTICITY MAXIMA OVER SWRN KS. LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE VEERED IN RESPONSE TO ARCING CLOUD BAND LIFTING NEWD INTO S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS DO INDICATE BACKING WINDS OVER WRN OK/ERN TX PNHDL...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. MOREOVER...CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A GROWING CUMULUS FIELD ALONG WEAK CONFLUENCE LINE OVER THE NERN TX PNHDL AS WELL AS NEAR A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SERN CO. CONTINUED BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING SHOULD AID IN FURTHER AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 1000-2000 J/KG WITH A DECREASING CAP. IT APPEARS GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE OVER THE ERN TX PNHDL INTO WRN OK WHERE VICI OK PROFILER AND RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A NARROW CHANNEL OF COMPARATIVELY STRONGER MID AND HIGH-LEVEL WINDS CURVING CYCLONICALLY AROUND SWRN KS DISTURBANCE. POTENTIAL FOR MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL EXIST WITH ANY STORMS DEVELOPING IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL WY HAS LEAD TO A GENERAL INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER WY AND PORTIONS OF WRN AND CNTRL CO. MEANWHILE...CLEAR SKIES HAVE ALLOWED DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS E OF LEE TROUGH...DEVELOPING FROM SWRN NEB SWD INTO ERN CO...TO WARM/DESTABILIZE. CONTINUED DIABATIC HEATING COUPLED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD ALLOW MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO 1000-2000 J/KG E OF LEE TROUGH LATER TODAY. WITH APPROACH OF DISTURBANCE FROM THE W...EXPECT STORMS TO INTENSIFY AS THEY MOVE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. IT APPEARS THAT RELATIVELY WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL BE THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. NONETHELESS...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. ...IA/ERN NEB/SWRN WI... LATEST ETA/RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS PORTION OF FRONT FROM SWRN/CNTRL WI INTO NERN NEB MAY BE CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SUPPORT THIS NOTION TO SOME DEGREE WITH DEVELOPING CUMULUS FIELDS ACROSS NRN IA. AIRMASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS DESTABILIZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER ERN NEB/WRN IA. HOWEVER...CURRENT VWPS INDICATE STRONGER WIND FIELDS FARTHER TO THE NE OVER NRN/CNTRL WI. GIVEN THIS OFFSET IN SHEAR AND INSTABILITY AND RATHER WEAK CONVERGENCE...LIKELIHOOD OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS REMAINS ISOLATED AT BEST. ...AL/GA... SMALL MCS OVER WRN/CNTRL AL IS MOVING EWD AT 20-30KTS ALONG RESIDUAL E-W FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS EWD INTO E-CNTRL SC. DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS ACROSS ERN AL AND CNTRL/SRN GA IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED EWD MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THOUGH WIND FIELDS REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK /PER REGIONAL VWPS/ ORGANIZED COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH SYSTEM WILL BE CAPABLE OF AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO. ..MEAD.. 08/22/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 01:11:11 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 22 Aug 2004 20:11:11 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408230111.i7N1BQL03495@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230108 SWODY1 SPC AC 230105 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0805 PM CDT SUN AUG 22 2004 VALID 230100Z - 231200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E P07 30 E ROW 15 SE GUP 20 SSW U17 20 NNE U24 70 SW ELY 45 NE BIH 45 S NFL 40 NNW LOL 45 NW EKO 35 SE BOI 45 WSW 27U 50 NE S80 45 NNW FCA ...CONT... 80 NE ISN 55 NE BIS 30 W MSP 30 SE ANJ ...CONT... 20 ESE MTC 30 NE MMO 25 W PIA 10 W STL 20 SE POF 25 SSW MSL 30 NW ATL 20 NNW AGS 15 ENE ILM. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...CENTRAL MT SEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO PARTS OF NRN NEB... STRONG UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD ACROSS THE NWRN CONUS ATTM...ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED 50 TO 55 KT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK NOW CROSSING THE NRN GREAT BASIN. STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN ID / NRN UT NWD ACROSS WRN WY INTO CENTRAL MT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY REMAINS A LIMITING FACTOR IN TERMS OF OVERALL SEVERE THREAT. WILL MAINTAIN LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS...BUT THIS THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF THROUGH THE EVENING. OTHER STORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG SURFACE BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SERN MT SEWD ACROSS WRN SD INTO NRN NEB -- AHEAD OF SECONDARY VORT MAX INDICATED ATTM OVER NERN WY. GREATER INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION /EVENING RAPID CITY SD RAOB INDICATES AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/...BUT WEAKER MID-LEVEL FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THIS AREA. WITH INCREASING SELY LOW-LEVEL JET...SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION AND THUS A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT. HOWEVER...WITH STORMS CROSSING ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF SURFACE BOUNDARY AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING. LOW-END THREAT MAY LINGER THE LONGEST ACROSS N CENTRAL NEB WHERE SURFACE BOUNDARY -- AND THUS INSTABILITY AXIS -- IS ORIENTED MORE W-E. HOWEVER...DESPITE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY...WIND FIELD SHOULD REMAIN WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION THUS NOT WARRANTING INSERTION OF SLIGHT RISK. ...WRN KS / WRN OK WWD TO ERN CO / NERN NM... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO / NERN NM ATTM INTO RELATIVELY MOIST / UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS FAIRLY WEAK ATTM WITH MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY 1O TO 20 KT...LOW-LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS EVENING ACROSS WRN N TX AND THE TX PANHANDLE INTO OK / KS. RESULTING INCREASE IN WARM ADVECTION / UVV AND SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT THE CONTINUATION OF STORMS -- AND A LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT -- THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 06:08:14 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 01:08:14 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408230608.i7N68SL02184@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 230606 SWODY1 SPC AC 230603 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0103 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 231200Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 40 NE RWF 15 NW FOD 15 NNW OMA 10 ESE GRI 45 S EAR 35 W P28 40 E LBL 45 SSW MHN 25 NNW PHP 20 WNW DIK 55 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM ISP 15 W TOL 30 NNW DAY 20 N HTS 10 NNE GSO 15 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE YUM 45 NE IGM 15 NNW GCN 80 NW GUP 55 NNE SOW 10 WSW FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 NE ELO 50 ENE GRB 50 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 75 SSE MRF 25 SW EHA 15 SSE AKO FCL 35 SSW ELY 10 SE RNO 4BK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW BML 15 SSW BHB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEB SWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...SYNOPSIS... WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH MOVING NEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN ROCKIES. ALTHOUGH STORMS AND ASSOCIATED / ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH LEAD SHORT-WAVE...MOST SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH MAIN TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...BAROCLINIC ZONE INITIALLY EXTENDING FROM A LOW OVER ERN MT ESEWD ACROSS SD INTO IA / NRN IL SHOULD RETREAT NEWD THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOW REACHING SERN SASKATCHEWAN / SWRN MANITOBA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...LEE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALSO MOVE EWD THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...NRN PLAINS... SUBSIDENCE IS FORECAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEB BEHIND INITIAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH...LIKELY RESULTING IN A CAPPED LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AHEAD OF MAIN UPPER TROUGH. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ABOVE CAP WILL ALLOW AIRMASS TO DESTABILIZE...AND APPROACH OF UPPER TROUGH SHOULD ALLOW CAP TO WEAKEN -- PARTICULARLY ALONG WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NW-SE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AS WELL AS INVOF LEE TROUGH FORECAST ACROSS WRN SD / WRN NEB. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY INVOF SURFACE LOW NEAR LEE TROUGH / WARM FRONT INTERSECTION EXPECTED ACROSS WRN SD. CONVECTION SHOULD THEN INCREASE / SPREAD NEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE DAKOTAS / NEB. WITH 40 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SHIFTING NEWD OUT OF WY ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE AFTERNOON...DEVELOPING STORMS SHOULD BECOME SUPERCELLULAR. EXPECT MAIN SEVERE THREAT TO BE HAIL...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED. THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AS LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES...WITH STORMS LIKELY SPREADING INTO WRN MN / WRN IA LATE IN THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG LEE TROUGH BY LATE AFTERNOON...ON WRN FRINGE OF MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE PLAINS. WITH 20 TO 30 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS SPREADING EWD ABOVE SLY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...SUFFICIENT SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR MULTICELLS AND A FEW ROTATING STORMS. HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING. ...MO / IA... WEAK SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE MO VALLEY REGION DURING THE DAY MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT -- PARTICULARLY NEAR SURFACE BOUNDARY LYING ACROSS IA / NRN IL. WEAK LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIMIT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY DESPITE MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...BUT EXPECT AROUND 1000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE BY AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION. FAIRLY WEAK /15 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST...BUT LOW-LEVEL SLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT VEERING / SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION. THEREFORE...EXPECT LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS / HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THIS REGION. ..GOSS.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 12:32:34 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 07:32:34 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408231232.i7NCWpL29516@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231229 SWODY1 SPC AC 231227 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0727 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 231300Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 40 NE RWF 15 NW FOD 15 NNW OMA 10 ESE GRI 45 S EAR 35 W P28 15 NNW LBL 45 SSW MHN 25 NNW PHP 20 WNW DIK 55 NNE ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE P07 35 NNE DHT 25 NNE AKO CYS 45 NE U28 45 SSE ELY 25 WSW NFL 50 SW 4LW 15 NNE BLI ...CONT... 45 NE ELO 50 ENE GRB 50 SE OSC ...CONT... 40 ENE ROC UCA 30 NNE POU 30 N TTN 25 SE FDY 30 ESE DAY 20 N HTS 15 W DAN 15 ESE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE YUM 25 SW PRC 25 NW INW 60 W GUP 40 SSW GNT 20 SE FHU. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN/CNTRL KS NWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... PROFILERS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A NEGATIVE-TILT H7-H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATING NEWD THROUGH CNTRL ND-ERN SD-NWRN IA WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEWD INTO A MORE STABLE AIR MASS ACROSS MANITOBA AND MN LATER THIS MORNING AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED. IN THE WAKE OF THE IMPULSE...SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING WILL LIKELY INCREASE AS WARM FRONT TRANSLATES NEWD INTO SRN ND AND SWRN MN. MOISTURE TRANSPORT BENEATH STEEP MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION ALONG/AHEAD OF SHARPENING LEE-TROUGH/DRYLINE FROM SCNTRL ND-NCNTRL NEB. INHIBITION SHOULD WEAKEN WITH HEATING AND APPROACH OF STRONGER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH UPSTREAM ROCKIES TROUGH AND TSTMS SHOULD INITIATE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. 0-6KM VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY DURING THE LATE PART OF THE AFTERNOON AND POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS TO GROW INTO SUPERCELLS WILL EXIST GIVEN FAVORABLE INSTABILITY. STRONGEST SIGNAL FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE VCNTY DEVELOPING SURFACE TRIPLE POINT NEAR THE MO RVR IN ND/SD. THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE 0-1KM STORM RELATIVE HELICITY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL SD/ND VCNTY THE WARM FRONT/LOW. HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT THE LFCS WILL BE AOA 2200 M AGL...MARGINAL FOR TORNADOES. ACTIVITY WILL MOVE ENEWD TOWARD THE RED RVR VLY AND WRN MN OVERNIGHT WITH LOWER SEVERE RISKS GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING. ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS... CHALLENGING FORECAST HAS EVOLVED ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS. CURRENT MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE EWD THROUGH KS WITH AN ASSOCIATED TSTM CLUSTER BEING ENHANCED BY A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. THE TROUGH AXIS SHOULD REACH THE MO/KS BORDER BY 18Z...BUT ORIENTATION/MAINTENANCE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAXIMIZE THE WARM/MOIST ADVECTION ALONG SWRN EDGE OF THE MCS MOST OF THE DAY. THIS IS LIKELY TO FORCE A BUBBLE HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER ERN KS/WRN MO WHERE CLOUDS SHOULD EXIST ALL DAY...AND REINFORCE A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE KS/OK BORDER. TAIL END OF THIS OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP NWWD INTO WCNTRL KS AND LINK UP WITH THE DRYLINE THIS AFTERNOON. IT IS NOT CERTAIN IF THE REGION AHEAD OF THE TROUGH ACROSS ERN KS/WRN MO WILL DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT SURFACE BASED UPDRAFTS. BUT...ANY POCKETS OF HEATING WOULD LEAD TO A STRONGER STORM POTENTIAL. IF THIS SCENARIO UNFOLDS...SBCAPE VALUES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR 1500 J/KG AND LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. SINCE SO MUCH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILISTIC SEVERE AND NOT UPGRADE ATTM. FARTHER WEST...AIR MASS WILL LIKELY HEAT MORE. HIGH LEVELS REMAIN DIFFLUENT OWING TO SUBTROPICAL JET ARCING ANTICYCLONICALLY THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS. THUS...MAGNITUDE OF RIDGING/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND CURRENT TROUGH MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO RULE OUT TSTM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE/OUTFLOW INTERSECTION. MLCAPES COULD APPROACH 3000 J/KG ACROSS SWRN NEB SWD INTO WRN/CNTRL KS BY MID-AFTERNOON AND COMBINED WITH 30-35 KT SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 6KM...SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. EXPERIMENTAL HAIL ALGORITHMS GIVE VERY LARGE HAIL OVER PARTS OF CNTRL KS...BUT CONFIDENCE ON MORE THAN ISOLD COVERAGE IS NOT HIGH. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL HAVE TO ADDRESS ADDING SIGNIFICANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES. ..RACY/CROSBIE.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 16:09:55 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 11:09:55 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408231610.i7NGAEL12407@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 231604 SWODY1 SPC AC 231601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 231630Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 40 NE RWF 15 NW FOD 50 SW FOD 45 ENE OMA 25 NE FNB 35 NNE PNC 15 NNW LBL 45 SSW MHN 40 ENE CDR 45 WNW Y22 60 NW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW ART 15 SW PBG 30 SE EFK 15 SSW LEB POU 20 S ABE 25 NE DAY 30 E LUK BKW 20 W GSO 30 SSW FAY 10 SSE ILM ...CONT... 25 N ELO 30 WSW IWD 30 NNW GRB 35 E MBL 50 SE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 25 NE DHT 25 SW LAA 30 SW LIC 40 ENE ASE 15 NW U28 35 SSE ELY 35 N TPH 10 SE NFL 35 NNW LOL 35 NW WMC 30 S OWY 15 SSW LND 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 30 WSW REJ 4BQ 55 WSW BIL 15 ENE MQM 50 NNE 27U 20 SE 3TH 80 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W YUM 20 SSE EED 50 WSW GCN 35 NE FLG 40 E INW 40 ESE SOW 10 ENE SAD 20 WSW DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... UPPER LOW VICINITY GTF AT 15Z AND ASSOCIATED STRONG S/WV TROUGH EXTENDING SWD INTO WY MOVING NEWD WITH LOW INTO SRN SASKATCHEWAN BY THIS EVENING AS TROUGH AND AREA OF STG UVV'S/MID LEVEL COOLING SPREADS EWD ACROSS WRN DAKOTAS. SURFACE LOW SERN MT WILL TRACK NEWD INTO WRN ND WITH LEE SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SWD THRU CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG GULF MOISTURE INCREASE IS UNDERWAY TO E OF LEE TROUGH ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS AND WILL BE SPREADING RAPIDLY NWD INTO THE DAKOTAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING GIVEN THE 30-40KT SLY LLJ AHEAD OF MT/WY TROUGH. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IN THE DAKOTAS IS SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL ON HOW MUCH DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR AHEAD OF TROUGH AS THE KINEMATICS ARE STRONG. BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS INTO THE 60S SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAKE IT INTO SRN ND...WHICH COUPLED WITH THE HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW/LEE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. MLCAPES FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON SRN ND SWD ACROSS SD. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. STORMS WILL CONTINUE EWD AND DEVELOP DOWN THE SURFACE TROUGH INTO WRN SD AS COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO WRN HIGH PLAINS. STRONG VEERING SHEAR PROFILES WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR INCREASING TO 50KT BY LATE AFTERNOON SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS PARTICULARLY NRN SD INTO ND. AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE GREATEST WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS. STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A SEVERE MCS DURING EVENING DEVELOPING INTO PRIMARILY A WIND DAMAGE THREAT AS STORM MODE BECOMES MORE LINEAR. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASED DRAMATICALLY OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS WITH 70S DEWPOINTS NWD INTO NEB ATTM. WEAK TROUGH IN SRN BRANCH COUPLED WITH WARM ADVECTION ON THE 30-40 KT SLY NOCTURNAL LLJ RESULTING IN THE EXTENSIVE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY NOW OVER ERN KS/MO. THESE STORMS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WHILE MOVING EWD AWAY FROM THE DRY LINE WHICH WILL BE LOCATED FROM WRN NEB SWD THRU WRN KS TO ALONG WRN OK/TX BORDER. STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR WRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES INTO THE 90S WHILE DEWPOINTS E OF DRY LINE RISE TO ABOVE 70F. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 3000 J/KG COMMON BY MID AFTERNOON KS AND A LITTLE LESS IN NEB. THE CAP HAS INCREASED SOME SINCE SUNDAY...HOWEVER SUFFICIENT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE STRONGLY HEATED DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH LAPSE RATES GREATER THAN 8C/KM AND A VEERING SHEAR PROFILE...ALBEIT SOMEWHAT WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AT LEAST ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE PRIOR TO SUNSET. SEVERE THREAT WILL DECREASE SOME AFTER DARK...HOWEVER WITH A 30-40KT LLJ THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE ACTIVE AND POSSIBLY SEVERE GIVEN THE AIR MASS QUALITY...MUCH OF THE NIGHT CENTRAL PLAINS. ..HALES/BANACOS.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 23 20:08:18 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 15:08:18 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408232008.i7NK8bL23942@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 232005 SWODY1 SPC AC 232003 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0303 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 232000Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WNW RRT 25 SSE BRD 10 SE RST 25 WNW ALO 15 W FOD 20 E OMA 30 W P35 20 SSE SZL 15 N UMN 15 WSW BVO 10 W END 20 ENE GAG 20 WSW DDC 40 NNE GLD 45 SSW MHN 35 NE REJ 55 SSE GDV 30 NW MLS 45 SSW GGW 50 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N ELO 30 WSW IWD 30 NNW GRB 35 E MBL 50 SE OSC ...CONT... 20 WNW ART 15 SW PBG 30 SE EFK 15 SSW LEB POU 20 S ABE 25 NE DAY 30 E LUK BKW 20 W GSO 30 SSW FAY 10 SSE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SE P07 25 NE DHT 25 SW LAA 30 SW LIC 40 ENE ASE 15 NW U28 35 SSE ELY 35 N TPH 10 SE NFL 35 NNW LOL 35 NW WMC 30 S OWY 15 SSW LND 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 30 WSW REJ 4BQ 55 WSW BIL 15 ENE MQM 50 NNE 27U 20 SE 3TH 80 NW FCA. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W YUM 20 SSE EED 50 WSW GCN 35 NE FLG 40 E INW 40 ESE SOW 10 ENE SAD 20 WSW DUG. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS... ...NRN PLAINS... CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DEEPENING BENEATH WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT AS IT SHIFTS EWD ACROSS MT...JUST SOUTH OF GGW. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO INGEST HIGHER THETA-E AIRMASS THAT IS SPREADING RAPIDLY NWD AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED SOMEWHAT WITH THIS CONVECTION...IT APPEARS NEW DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS ALONG WIND SHIFT AS IT ADVANCES EWD INTO WRN ND. PROFILES ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS...AND WITH TIME THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD INCREASE AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENS. STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL ALLOW AN UPWARD CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION INTO A POSSIBLE MCS AS CONVECTION SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL SHOULD BECOME THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS LATER THIS EVENING. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SEVERAL LARGE CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY SHIFTED EAST OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WITH ASSOCIATED STABILIZING OUTFLOW FORCED WWD INTO SERN NEB/ERN KS. OVER THE LAST HOUR OR SO NEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERATED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...WITH SOME APPARENT SUPPLEMENTARY LIFT AIDED BY WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE BUBBLE HIGH. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AS IT SPREADS NNEWD WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL. OF SOME CONCERN FARTHER WEST NEAR THE DRYLINE IS THE RECENT CU DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY IN THE HIGH PLATEAU AIRMASS FROM THE NEB PANHANDLE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE. THIS IS CLEARLY INDICATIVE OF THE STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WEST OF THE TRUE DRYLINE. AS BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM IT APPEARS THIS SHALLOW CONVECTION MAY SPREAD EAST AND INGEST EXTREME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. ANY STORMS THAT MANAGE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES WILL CERTAINLY BECOME SEVERE WITH AT LEAST A LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT. VEERING WIND PROFILES ACROSS KS MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT IN AIDING STORM ROTATION AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT. ..DARROW.. 08/23/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 01:16:12 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 23 Aug 2004 20:16:12 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408240116.i7O1GXL31498@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 240113 SWODY1 SPC AC 240110 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0810 PM CDT MON AUG 23 2004 VALID 240100Z - 241200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 N GFK 25 S BRD 30 ENE MKT 30 N MCW 30 ESE SPW 25 E OMA SZL 35 NE JLN 35 NNW BVO 30 W PNC EHA 40 NNW LAA 35 ESE AKO 25 NW IML 15 NE PHP 50 WSW BIS 60 NNW ISN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N ELO 30 E RHI 25 NNE FNT 40 E TOL 25 NNW CMH 30 E CRW 35 S ROA 35 SSW GSO CRE. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 ESE YUM 15 NW GBN 60 E PHX 45 SSE SOW 30 ENE SAD 20 S FHU. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE DRT 15 NE AUS 35 WNW TXK 20 NE HRO 10 WNW TUL 20 SE CDS 35 NW PVW 35 SE GUC 20 SW DEN 15 NNW FCL 40 SSW DGW 35 NNE DGW 60 SE 81V 10 NNW REJ 10 SSE OLF 80 ENE HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS... ...THE DAKOTAS SWD ACROSS NEB INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... SURFACE LOW IS INDICATED ALONG THE ND / SD BORDER...WITH FRONT EXTENDING NNWWD INTO FAR NERN MT AND SEWD ACROSS CENTRAL SD INTO THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY. A LEE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THIS LOW SSWWD ACROSS W CENTRAL NEB INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ATTM FROM W CENTRAL ND SWD INTO THE WRN HALF OF NEB INVOF SURFACE LOW / FRONT...WHERE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /1500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ EXISTS. WITH 35 TO 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THIS REGION AND LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASING FROM THE S / SE...DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CONTINUING. STORMS ACROSS ND SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME...WITH MAIN THREAT TRANSITIONING TO HAIL LATER THIS EVENING. FURTHER S INTO SD / NEB...SURFACE-BASED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE DECREASING LATER TONIGHT. MORE ISOLATED HAIL / WIND THREAT EXISTS SWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING WHERE INCREASING WARM ADVECTION MAY SUPPORT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH STORMS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EWD ACROSS KS AND PERSIST THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED BY WEAKER FLOW ALOFT. ...ERN KS / WRN MO... CLUSTER OF SUPERCELL STORMS CONTINUES ACROSS NERN KS ATTM...JUST N OF OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHERE ESELY SURFACE WINDS VEER RAPIDLY TO WLY AT AROUND 3 KM. EXPECT THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS AREA THIS EVENING. THUS EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND SHIFT EWD INTO MO THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE BECOMING INCREASINGLY ELEVATED WITH TIME. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE SEVERE THREAT WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 10:48:35 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 05:48:35 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408241049.i7OAn5L05149@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241047 SWODY1 SPC AC 241044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0544 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 241200Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI UIN 45 NE SZL 20 S JLN 35 S ICT 25 ESE RSL 45 NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 50 NW AKO 60 SSE 9V9 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW JHW 25 NW MGW BKW 35 SSW GSO CRE ...CONT... 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT 60 NNE CLL 25 NW GGG 30 E PRX MLC 20 SSW END 35 WNW P28 45 NW EHA 25 NW COS 35 WNW RTN 45 SSW 4CR 30 NW ELP 35 SSE GDP 25 E INK 40 SSE BGS 70 SW SJT 30 ESE P07 ...CONT... 70 ESE YUM 50 WSW GCN 15 S BCE 10 NW MLF 55 NW DRA 35 NW BIH 25 W RNO 20 SSE BNO 25 SSE PDT 10 SE EAT 15 SE BLI ...CONT... 55 NE HVR 60 NNW MLS 35 S SHR 55 SW RAP 15 NNW ABR 70 NNW TVF. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER AND MIDDLE MO VALLEY...AND MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE / SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE WRN AND CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD WHILE RIDGE AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE ERN STATES. NUMEROUS VORTICITY MAXIMA / SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED WITHIN CYCLONIC SWLY FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. -- WHERE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS ANTICIPATED. AT THE SURFACE...COMPLEX PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED WITH A LACK OF STRONG BAROCLINICITY. MAIN FEATURES WILL INCLUDE A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS AND A LOW FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY EWD ACROSS KS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MO / MID AND UPPER MS VALLEYS... DIFFICULT FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS LARGE AREA OF INSTABILITY AND COMPLEX / GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN MAKES NARROWING DOWN AREAS OF GREATER SEVERE THREAT DIFFICULT ATTM. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF MN AS WELL AS THE IA / MO AREA. THIS CONVECTION SHOULD SHIFT EWD AND DECREASE DURING THE DAY...WHILE AIRMASS W OF THE CONVECTION -- ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MO VALLEY REGION -- DESTABILIZES. STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE REGION...INCLUDING ALONG WEAKENING TROUGH FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM MN SWWD INTO NEB...AS WELL AS INVOF REMNANT OUTFLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE KS / MO REGION. LARGE AREA OF MODERATE CYCLONIC SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION ALONG SERN EDGE OF LARGE UPPER TROUGH...ABOVE GENERALLY SLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS SE OF AFOREMENTIONED MN TO NEB SURFACE BOUNDARY. RESULTING SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS...AND THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED A LARGE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT ATTM IS EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF KS / ERN NB AND INTO WRN IA...IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF KS SURFACE LOW. COMBINATION OF REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NW SHOULD FOCUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT OF FAVORABLE INSTABILITY / SHEAR. ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL...A TORNADO OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THIS REGION. ALTHOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SHOULD WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THEY MOVE EWD INTO LESS UNSTABLE AIRMASS...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD ACROSS PARTS OF MO / IA AND INTO WRN IL AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES / MAINTAINS FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION REGIME. ..GOSS.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 12:34:21 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 07:34:21 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408241234.i7OCYlL12702@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241232 SWODY1 SPC AC 241229 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0729 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 241300Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI UIN 55 SSW IRK 15 E UMN 30 S EMP 25 NNE P28 35 SSW RSL 45 NW GCK 40 SSE LIC 50 NW AKO 40 NW BBW 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSE CRP 35 WNW VCT 60 NNE CLL 20 NW GGG 40 ENE PRX 20 NW MLC 25 SSW END 40 W P28 35 NW EHA 20 SW LHX 35 W TAD 35 SSW LVS 15 SSW 4CR 50 SE ALM 35 SSE GDP 30 E INK 35 NW SJT 40 WNW JCT 10 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE OLF 55 NNW MLS 30 SSW SHR 55 SW RAP 15 NNW ABR 65 N GFK. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SE YUM 40 NW PRC 25 S BCE 10 NNW MLF 50 NNW DRA 30 NW BIH 25 WSW RNO 60 E 4LW 35 NNE BNO 10 ESE PDT 35 SSE OLM 15 W CLM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW JHW 25 NW MGW 15 NNE BKW 25 SW GSO 25 NNE FLO 30 W ILM 25 W HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS TO MN/CANADIAN BORDER AREA... ...MN AREA... MORNING SURFACE CHART SHOWS AN OCCLUDED FRONT TRAILING FROM 997 MB LOW OVER SERN SASK SWD INTO ERN ND AND CNTRL SD. A WARM FRONT WAS SITUATED ACROSS SWRN MN. AS SRN PERIPHERY OF 30-60 METER H5 HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE CANADIAN PRARIES TRANSLATE ENEWD...THE OCCLUDED FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MN. A NARROW INSTABILITY AXIS CHARACTERIZED BY MLCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG WILL EXIST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TODAY. TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP ACROSS WRN MN DURING THE AFTERNOON...THEN MOVE EWD DURING THE EVENING. VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INITIALLY BE WEAK IN THE WARM SECTOR...BUT GRADUALLY INCREASE AS 50 KT SWLY H5 FLOW SAGS SEWD...POSSIBLY AUGMENTING STORM ORGANIZATION. THE MEAN 2-6KM MEAN WIND VECTORS WILL BE ORIENTED MORE PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND SUGGEST THAT TSTMS MAY ORGANIZE LINEARLY WITH TIME AND COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. ACTIVITY WILL APPROACH THE LAKE SUPERIOR AND UPPER MS VLY AREAS OVERNIGHT WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE LESS. THUS...DECREASING RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL OCCUR. ...CNTRL PLAINS... NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST AT DAYBREAK ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS WITH THE STRONGEST ARCING FROM NRN MO WWD ACROSS NRN KS. THIS BOUNDARY MAY MOVE A LITTLE FARTHER SWD INTO THE I-70 CORRIDOR LATER THIS MORNING AS MCS TRANSLATES ESEWD INTO NRN/CNTRL MO WHILE WEAKENING. NOW THAT THE MAIN IMPULSE OVER SCNTRL CANADA IS MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION AND SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER MO DEPARTS TO THE EAST...THE MAJORITY OF THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL SEE A LULL/DECREASE IN TSTMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. BUBBLE HIGH WILL REMAIN STRONG ACROSS MO TODAY...BUT AIR MASS WILL RECOVER ACROSS CNTRL KS NWD INTO SERN NEB AND SWRN IA. SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE 70S SITUATED ACROSS OK WILL ADVECT NWD BENEATH STRENGTHENING CAP ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES TO 3500 J/KG BETWEEN THE MO BUBBLE HIGH AND DRYLINE ACROSS SCNTRL KS. CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY WAIT UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS CAP WILL REMAIN STRONG AND RIDGING ALOFT MAINTAINS SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER...UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AS SUBTROPICAL JETLET...ANALYZED OVER NM...MOVES INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND BECOMES COUPLED WITH CYCLONICALLY CURVED JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS. HEATING...INCREASED LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET TOWARD EVENING WILL LIKELY AID IN TSTMS DEVELOPING OVER NWRN KS/SWRN NEB/NERN CO AREA EWD TOWARD THE MO RVR. LOWEST 6KM SHEAR WILL BE 35-40 KTS COINCIDENT WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. POTENTIAL FOR HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS WILL EXIST OVER NCNTRL KS/SCNTRL NEB EWD TO THE MO RVR IN THE EVENING AND THE UPDATED OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A SMALL AREA OF SIGNIFICANT HAIL PROBABILITIES. MOREOVER...A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR...PRIMARILY NEAR THE SCNTRL/SERN NEB/KS BORDER AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL SELY FLOW...LOW LCLS...EXTREME CAPE AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL HELICITY WILL EXIST. LLJ AXIS ENHANCES THETA-E ADVECTION EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO OVERNIGHT AND THE TSTMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO A MCS AND TRACK ESEWD THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THOUGH SEVERE THREATS WILL DECREASE...DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BECOME MORE OF A THREAT FARTHER EWD. ..RACY/TAYLOR.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 16:09:17 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 11:09:17 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408241609.i7OG9iL04323@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 241604 SWODY1 SPC AC 241601 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1101 AM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 241630Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 35 E DLH EAU 25 WNW LNR 20 E MLI 30 ENE ALN 35 ESE VIH 15 E UMN 30 N BVO 25 WSW ICT 50 NNW P28 50 NNW GCK 35 WNW GLD 30 SE SNY 40 NW BBW 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 30 E LVM 20 NW LND 30 SSW RWL 30 WSW CYS 15 ESE BFF 40 WSW 9V9 25 W ATY 35 E FAR 20 WNW RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 30 W GBN 40 WNW PHX FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 45 E ELY 55 NNW ELY 20 ESE OWY 15 NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 30 SSW 27U 45 SE BKE 50 NW RDM 25 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W MRF 45 NW MRF 45 N MRF 30 WSW FST 25 E FST 30 ENE BGS 50 E LBB 10 S GAG 35 W P28 15 W DDC 30 ENE LAA 20 SSW LIC 40 ENE GUC 40 SW ALS 30 NE ONM 15 NNE TCS 35 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25 SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S EWN 30 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS INTO UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... THE UNSEASONABLY ENERGETIC WLY FLOW ACROSS CONUS IS BECOMING EVEN MORE SO AS IMPRESSIVE 130KT 300MB JET MOVES ONTO THE PAC NW COAST BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD. MONDAYS STRONG TROUGH OVER MT HAS BEEN KICKED NEWD INTO SCENTRAL CANADA WHILE A WEAKER UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER INTERMOUNTAIN REGION IS TRYING TO PHASE WITH SRN BRANCH IMPULSE NOW OVER AZ. AZ S/WV IS THE UPPER LOW THAT WAS OFF BAJA MON AND WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD INTO SRN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS EARLY TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT TRAILING SWD FROM THE LOW MOVING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA WILL MAKE SLOW PROGRESS EWD ACROSS MN TODAY TRAILING BACK ACROSS NRN NEB WHERE IT WILL SLOW AND WEAKEN. OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY ERN KS/NRN MO IS PROVIDING THE MOST IMPORTANT SURFACE BOUNDARY TODAY WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INITIATION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MCS CURRENTLY PUSHING SEWD ACROSS LOWER MO VALLEY WITH THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING WWD ACROSS CENTRAL KS TO SURFACE LOW OVER WCENTRAL KS. A VERY MOIST AND POTENTIALLY EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS S OF KS/MO BOUNDARIES. ...CENTRAL PLAINS... SUFFICIENT CAP WILL LIKELY DELAY REDEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON VICINITY OF KS SURFACE BOUNDARY ALLOWING THE MLCAPES IN WARM SECTOR TO INCREASE TO 3000 J/KG OR GREATER TO E OF SURFACE LOW AND WEAK DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KS. WHILE SFC-6KM SHEAR OF 30KT WILL BE MARGINAL...THE PRONOUNCED LOW LEVEL VEERING VICINITY SURFACE BOUNDARY...COUPLED WITH THE IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND N OF THE E/W BOUNDARY. WITH LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 8C/KM...VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH A FEW TORNADOES. AS S/WV OVER AZ ENTERS HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING ALONG WITH THE NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN PLAINS LOW LEVEL JET...A SEVERE MCS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE E/ESEWD INTO LOWER MO VALLEY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS WELL AFTER DARK. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... AHEAD OF COLD FRONT...AIR MASS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG. SFC-6KM SHEAR WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 25-30KT WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW 10-15 KTS. SURFACE BASED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL PRIMARILY BE PULSE VARIETY WITH SOME ORGANIZED MULTI-CELLS VICINITY FRONTAL ZONE. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE STORM MODE. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 24 20:02:49 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 15:02:49 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408242003.i7OK3IL19229@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 242000 SWODY1 SPC AC 241957 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0257 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 242000Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO 35 E DLH 30 WNW EAU 50 NNE ALO 30 WSW MLI 15 E SPI 20 ENE MTO 25 SSW BMG 25 NE OWB 25 WNW HOP 10 NNW DYR 45 S UNO 10 NW FYV 30 NE BVO 25 E ICT 45 SSW RSL 30 SSW GLD 35 ESE AKO 50 E SNY 40 NW BBW 45 NE BKX 50 WNW BRD 25 E RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N GGW 25 WSW BIL 35 NW RIW 40 NNW RWL 25 SSW DGW 15 ESE CDR 35 NNW 9V9 35 NW ATY 40 ENE FAR 10 W RRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC 30 NNW FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 45 E ELY 45 SSE EKO 20 ESE OWY 15 NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 30 SSW 27U 45 SE BKE 50 NW RDM 25 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 WNW MRF 35 SSE HOB 10 NNE LBB 35 E AMA 35 SW LBL 25 N LHX 15 NW COS 60 NNE ALS 45 SSE ALS 30 SW LVS 40 ESE ONM 70 E DUG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25 SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S EWN 30 SE EWN. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY... ...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN IL... MID MS VALLEY MCS APPEARS TO BE REJUVENATING SOMEWHAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AIDS DESTABILIZATION ACROSS SERN MO INTO SRN IL. AN EXPANDING PRECIPITATION SHIELD IN THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE FORWARD SPEED AS LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION SPREADS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH SOME THREAT FOR HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS. UPSTREAM ACROSS KS/SERN NEB...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON BACK SIDE OF MCS SFC HIGH WITH WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE THREAT ALONG/NORTH OF RETREATING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. LATEST VIS IMAGERY SUGGESTS THIS PROCESS IS UNDERWAY WITH RECENT BOUNDARY LAYER WAVE CLOUDS NOW SPREADING NEWD ACROSS NERN KS. AS WARM SECTOR CONTINUES TO HEAT...INHIBITION WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE. HOWEVER...TIMING OF UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE AND REMAINING INHIBITION SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT INITIATE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING...OR POSSIBLY AS LATE AS 03Z. EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR FAVOR INITIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH ONE OR MORE MCS'S EXPECTED AFTER DARK. VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EVOLVE INTO A DAMAGING WIND THREAT AS CONVECTION ORGANIZES LATE. ...UPPER MS VALLEY... WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG N-S WIND SHIFT HAS YET TO GENERATE MORE THAN SHALLOW BOUNDARY LAYER CONVECTION AT BEST. WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MANITOBA INTO ONTARIO IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON. IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN WHETHER THIS ALONE WILL PROVE ADEQUATE TO GENERATE MORE THAN ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MOSTLY LARGE HAIL. ..DARROW.. 08/24/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 00:49:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 24 Aug 2004 19:49:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408250050.i7P0o1L32273@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250047 SWODY1 SPC AC 250044 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0744 PM CDT TUE AUG 24 2004 VALID 250100Z - 251200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 ENE ELO DLH 65 N EAU 30 ESE RST 40 NNW BRL 40 WSW SPI 25 SSE VIH 35 NE JLN 20 SW SLN 40 SSW HLC 30 NE AKO 50 E SNY 40 NW BBW 35 NW OTG 10 NW BRD 20 W INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W BUF 30 SW DUJ 25 SSW SHD 20 SE GSO 45 SW SOP 30 SSW FLO 20 WNW CRE 25 WNW ILM 20 S EWN 30 SE EWN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE YUM 45 WSW PRC 30 NNW FLG 30 ESE U17 CNY 25 ENE PUC 30 NE U24 15 NW DPG 50 S BYI 15 NE BYI 30 WNW IDA 60 NW 27U 30 SSW PDT 35 NNW YKM 20 NNE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW 7R4 10 ESE MLU 30 NE PBF 60 NW LIT 35 W MKO 20 NE DDC 15 NW COS 60 NNE ALS 45 SSE ALS 40 SW TCC 40 W PVW 40 NW BGS 40 ENE BGS 15 N ABI 15 NNE BWD 45 ENE JCT 10 NW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNE GGW BIL 25 WSW WRL 45 E RIW 10 WSW DGW 30 N CDR 20 WNW 9V9 35 SE JMS 40 SSE TVF 30 ESE RRT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION SWD INTO KS / MO... ...NERN KS / SERN NEB / SRN IA / NRN MO... MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS SERN MO EARLIER HAS LEFT A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM SRN MO INTO NERN KS. WITH LOW-LEVEL JET FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THIS REGION...WARM ADVECTION / ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD / SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS OVER THIS REGION. WSWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE WITH TIME AS JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH ERN AZ / WRN NM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES MOVING EWD. THIS COMBINED WITH INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD SUGGESTS THAT STORMS WILL ORGANIZED -- LIKELY INTO AN MCS -- OVERNIGHT. MAIN SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE LARGE HAIL...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A TORNADO OR TWO WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY NEAR BOUNDARY WHERE SURFACE- OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED STORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. CONVECTION SHOULD PERSIST / SHIFT EWD ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...MN / WRN WI... SCATTERED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG WIND SHIFT / SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR INL SSWWD TO FAR NWRN IA. ALTHOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED / SUPERCELL STORMS SUGGESTS THAT LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...SLOWLY STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD SLOWLY TAPER OFF AFTER SUNSET. ...WRN NEB SEWD INTO NRN KS... LIMITED INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS WRN NEB ATTM...WHERE SCATTERED / WEAK STORMS ARE ONGOING. AS WARM ADVECTION INCREASES OVERNIGHT...STORMS MAY PERSIST EWD INTO MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOULD THIS OCCUR...A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE GIVEN DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED STORMS. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 05:58:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 00:58:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408250559.i7P5x3L29364@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 250556 SWODY1 SPC AC 250554 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1254 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 VALID 251200Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 SSW BRD 10 E MSN 40 NW CGX 15 WNW CMI 30 SE BLV 20 E UNO 30 WNW MLC 30 NE OKC 20 N PNC 35 W EMP 50 W CNK 15 WNW ABR 50 E DIK 55 NNW MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SSW HOU 45 SE LFK 35 SSW MLU 30 SW ELD 35 NNE GGG 25 NNW ACT 35 WSW ABI 70 NNW ABI LTS 25 E HUT 35 SSE RSL 40 NNE LAA 25 ENE DEN 40 W EGE 35 NNW VEL 20 SW EVW 25 SE SUN 35 W BOI 55 WSW PDT 45 NNW 4OM ...CONT... 35 WSW ART LBE 30 SSE TYS 15 WSW CSG 10 WSW MAI 10 SE MGR 45 NW CHS 25 SW ILM. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ERN HALF OF THE PLAINS EWD INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BROADEN / EXPAND EWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE RIDGE PERSISTS E OF THE APPALACHIANS. SEVERAL SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS WILL SHIFT ENEWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS -- WHERE MAIN SEVERE THREAT EXISTS THIS PERIOD. RATHER ILL-DEFINED SURFACE PATTERN IS EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOW PRESSURE LINGERING ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND A TROUGH EXTENDING SWD ACROSS THE PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM ONGOING CONVECTION EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MO / IA WILL LIKELY BE A FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON. ...ERN PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY... ANOTHER COMPLEX FORECAST THIS PERIOD...GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK SURFACE PATTERN AND FAVORABLE BACKGROUND ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS PERSISTING ACROSS A LARGE GEOGRAPHIC AREA. LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING EWD...ALONG WITH A BROAD BELT OF MODERATE WSWLY FLOW. AS INITIAL / WELL-DEFINED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TOWARD THE MO / MID MS VALLEYS DURING THE DAY...MODERATE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED. RESULTING SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION ACROSS A LARGE AREA FROM THE NRN PLAINS SWD INTO TX AND EWD INTO THE MID MS / LOWER OH VALLEYS. WITH MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS E OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE PLAINS...DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION. GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST ACROSS FROM ERN KS INTO THE LOWER AND MID MO VALLEYS BY AFTERNOON...WHERE 1500 TO 3000 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE IS EXPECTED GENERALLY TO THE W OF LINGERING STORMS ACROSS IA / MO. STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF SURFACE TROUGH -- PARTICULARLY ALONG REMNANT OUTFLOWS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT -- INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES -- IS EXPECTED ATTM ACROSS ERN NEB / ERN KS / NWRN MO / WRN IA AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH REGARDS TO OTHER POSSIBLE AREAS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE THREAT. AS LEAD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE EVENING ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL JET...EXPECT CONVECTION -- AND LOW-PROBABILITY SEVERE THREAT -- TO SPREAD NEWD...WITH STORMS LIKELY PERSISTING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 12:29:31 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 07:29:31 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408251230.i7PCUNL01285@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251227 SWODY1 SPC AC 251225 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0725 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 VALID 251300Z - 261200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT 45 NE FAR AXN FRM ALO RFD MKE GRR 10 NNW FWA BMG POF HRO PRX 35 NNE MWL FSI PNC 30 WSW EMP 15 NNW SLN 40 S EAR BBW 9V9 50 WSW JMS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ART AOO 25 SE TRI 35 NNE ABY 30 ENE MGR 35 WSW SAV 20 WSW FLO 25 SW ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE PSX 25 E SAT 15 SE DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP MAF 55 E LBB 30 E CSM 15 NE P28 40 NNE DDC 20 NNW LAA 15 E DEN 45 N GJT 35 WSW MLD 20 SW SUN 50 W BOI 65 SW PDT 30 S AST. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN/CNTRL PLAINS AND THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.... BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER FLOW REGIME PERSISTS ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL STATES. A PAIR OF VIGOROUS JET STREAKS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS REGIME...AND WILL PLAY A PROMINENT ROLE IN SUPPORTING INTENSE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL STATES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. IN THE SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...LEAD JET STREAK AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ARE ALREADY ACCELERATING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY LATE TONIGHT. THIS WILL OCCUR AS INTENSE CYCLONIC POLAR JET STREAK NOSES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST STATES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES/PLAINS. BOTH FEATURES ARE ALREADY CONTRIBUTING TO FORCING FOR ONGOING... INCREASINGLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER INTO THE VICINITY OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AND WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY ENHANCED ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON LEADING EDGE OF MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S DEW POINTS...WHICH HAS RETURNED NORTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. CONTINUED NORTHWARD ADVECTION OF MOISTURE LIKELY WILL BE SLOWED BY EXPANDING CLUSTER /OR CLUSTERS/ OF STORMS...UNTIL EXIT REGION OF POLAR JET OVERSPREADS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY LATE THIS EVENING/ OVERNIGHT. THIS MAY TEND TO MITIGATE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF THE MID MISSOURI/MID AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. HOWEVER...GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE STORM ACTIVITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TODAY...WITH RISK PERHAPS BECOMING CONCENTRATED IN SEVERAL AREAS. ...EAST CENTRAL PLAINS INTO OZARKS... POTENTIAL FOR MOST INTENSE STORMS TODAY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA. GENERALLY IN WAKE OF SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH AXIS BY MID AFTERNOON...LOW/ MID-LEVEL FLOW REGIME IS PROGGED TO REMAIN CYCLONIC AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RED RIVER VALLEY. MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN WEAKENED STATE UNTIL SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS INTO REGION LATE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THUS...COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND STRONG HEATING TOWARD CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON...ON WESTERN EDGE OF LOW-LEVEL MOIST TONGUE. THIS APPEARS MOST LIKELY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 35... WHERE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY MID-LEVELS AND WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG... WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. VEERING PROFILES WITH HEIGHT ALONG 30 KT SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS BENEATH MODERATE WESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW. STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES...BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS AFTER NIGHTFALL. ...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO NORTHERN PLAINS... NORTH OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED/ENHANCED BOUNDARY...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF PLAINS SURFACE TROUGH WILL BE MORE LIMITED FROM NORTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE CURRENTLY IN PLACE...IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG HEATING/STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD CREATE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE STORMS. MODELS SUGGEST UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS...CURRENTLY EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES /WELL IN ADVANCE OF STRONGER POLAR JET CORE/...WILL LIFT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. THIS SHOULD AID CONVECTIVE INITIATION...WITH ACTIVITY BECOMING MOST CONCENTRATED SOUTH/EAST OF DEEPENING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS. THOUGH FLOW FIELDS ARE PROGGED TO BE RELATIVELY MARGINAL ACROSS THIS REGION...VEERING WITH HEIGHT MAY CREATE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS...ENHANCING SEVERE POTENTIAL. PRIMARY THREATS APPEAR TO BE VERY LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS...BUT ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE...UNTIL BOUNDARY LAYER BEGINS TO COOL/STABILIZE THIS EVENING. ...SOUTHERN/EASTERN MISSOURI INTO ILLINOIS/INDIANA... SEVERE THREAT IS MORE UNCERTAIN ACROSS THIS AREA DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT CLOUD COVER/CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF SUBTROPICAL SHORT WAVE TROUGH...BEFORE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS A CHANCE TO HEAT/DESTABILIZE SIGNIFICANTLY. HOWEVER...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS AT OR INCREASING TO AROUND 70F...MODERATE SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER JET STREAK ON SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS WILL PROVIDE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS. ...NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION... STRONG MID-LEVEL COOLING /500 MB TEMPS AS LOW AS -18C/ IS PROGGED ALONG/NORTH OF POLAR JET AXIS ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IDAHO/SOUTHWEST MONTANA/NORTHEAST WYOMING DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LIMITED CAPE...BUT INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND FORCING ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG CELLS WITH SOME SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ...FLORIDA PENINSULA... MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH LOWER/MID 70S F DEW POINTS SHOULD DESTABILIZE FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE HEATING. AIDED BY CONTINUING PRESENCE OF CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL SHEAR AXIS...FROM JUST OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...SEA BREEZES ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT INITIATION OF FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CONVECTION AGAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. ..KERR/TAYLOR.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Wed Aug 25 15:48:52 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Wed, 25 Aug 2004 10:48:52 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408251549.i7PFnSL08190@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 251543 SWODY1 SPC AC 251540 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1040 AM CDT WED AUG 25 2004 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SSE SPI 20 WSW BLV 10 S VIH 50 NNE SGF 25 SSW OJC 15 ENE TOP 10 ESE FNB 50 NNE FNB 25 S DSM 35 SSW CID 10 SW MLI 10 WNW PIA 10 ENE SPI 40 SSE SPI. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 W RRT 45 NE FAR AXN 25 ENE MKT 35 ESE RST 10 ESE MSN MKE GRR 10 NNW FWA BMG POF 15 S HRO 25 NNE PRX 20 WNW DUA 15 SE OKC 15 SE PNC 25 SW EMP 25 E MHK 20 ESE LNK 30 N OFK 35 NNW HON 40 ENE BIS 60 NNE MOT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW ART AOO 25 SE TRI 30 ENE MCN 45 ESE MCN 35 ESE AGS FLO 25 SSE OAJ. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 SSW GDP 15 S MAF 45 SE CDS 25 NW END 40 S RSL 50 S EAR 30 ESE BBW 40 NNE LBF 20 NNW AKO 10 NNW FCL 50 ENE CAG 40 NE VEL EVW 20 N BYI 60 SSE BNO 45 WSW RDM 40 SSW ONP. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 E CRP 20 N NIR 50 SSE AUS 40 ESE ACT 35 S FTW 20 SSW SEP 10 SE DRT. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MUCH OF NRN/CENTRAL MO AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KS/IA AND IL... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN SWD TO INCLUDE ERN OK AND SEWD INTO MID MS VALLEY...... ...CENTRAL U.S.. UNSEASONABLY STRONG WLYS AND POTENT S/WV TROUGHS CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD FROM PAC NW ACROSS CENTRAL U.S. S/WV TROUGH NOW MOVING EWD CENTRAL PLAINS WILL PROVIDE UPWARD MOTION AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL U.S. TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY TO EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS COMBINED WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR UPWARDS TO 50-55 KTS AND SFC-1KM SHEAR FROM 20-25 KT PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SUPERCELLS FROM EXTREME ERN KS ACROSS MID MS RIVER VALLEY. WITH MLCAPES FROM 3000-4000 J/KG AND LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM...VERY LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL IN THE MDT RISK AREA. BOUNDARIES FROM CURRENT MCS MOVING ACROSS IA INTO IL ALONG WITH OUTFLOW FROM ONGOING SEVERE STORMS NERN KS/SERN NEB AHEAD OF TROUGH WILL PROVIDE FOCUS FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELL POTENTIAL BY MID AFTERNOON. POSSIBILITY OF STRONG TORNADOES GIVEN THE COMBINATION OF SHEAR AND INSTABILITY. CAP WEAKENS SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW CONVECTION TO TAP INTO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY BY MID AFTERNOON FOR GREATEST POTENTIAL OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS...EXTENDING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL EXTENDING SWWD INTO ERN OK WHERE AIR MASS CONTAINS EXTREME INSTABILITY. SHEAR IS WEAKER IN THIS AREA WITH HIGHER LCLS THUS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS MAIN THREAT. SEVERE MODE SHOULD TRANSITION INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS DURING EVENING WITH INCREASING WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL EWD ACROSS NRN IL. ...NCENTRAL U.S... INCREASING SHEAR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON.. COMBINATION OF MID/UPPER LEVEL COOLING AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOW 60S WITH SURFACE HEATING PUSHES MLCAPES ABOVE 1000 J/KG ACROSS ERN DAKOTAS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR LESS THAN 30KTS FAVORS MORE PULSE AND MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT WITH GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL/WIND DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. ..HALES/JEWELL.. 08/25/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 00:51:57 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Thu, 26 Aug 2004 19:51:57 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408270052.i7R0qoL04987@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270049 SWODY1 SPC AC 270046 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0746 PM CDT THU AUG 26 2004 VALID 270100Z - 271200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW OTM 45 WNW LWD 25 E OMA 45 E SUX 30 ESE SPW 35 ENE MCW 50 SSW LSE 20 WSW DBQ 30 WNW MLI 35 SW OTM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OSC FNT 30 SW JXN 45 S SBN 10 NNE CMI 45 SE UIN 35 NW SZL 20 NNE TOP 35 SSE BIE 15 NNE BIE 15 ENE SUX 25 W SPW 15 NW MKT 45 S DLH 25 ENE DLH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WNW MRF 10 ENE INK 50 SSE LBB 45 SE CDS 10 S SPS 30 WSW MWL 35 ESE SJT 30 NNW DRT. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW PSX 20 WSW CLL 30 SSW TYR 35 E PRX 20 ENE MKO 25 NW CNU 30 ESE SLN 25 SE HSI 15 NNE MCK 45 E LIC COS 15 ENE GJT 30 N U24 40 S OWY 25 SSW BNO DLS 25 NE BLI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW ART 40 WNW IPT 25 WNW SHD 35 NE HKY 15 W AND 25 WNW AGS 25 SW SOP 20 WSW GSB 30 E EWN. ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS IA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROM NRN MO INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...IA TO GREAT LAKES... NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS HAVE EVOLVED FROM CNTRL IA INTO SWRN IA AHEAD OF SFC FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY SURGING SWD THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS...ALTHOUGH SOME EWD PUSH IS NOTED TOWARD THE MS VALLEY REGION. DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND 00Z SOUNDINGS REFLECT A HIGHLY MOIST AND SIGNIFICANTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS IA INTO NRN IL...WITH THE LATEST PROFILE FROM DVN STRONGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND TORNADOES. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE APPEARS TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON LATE EVENING EVOLUTION WITH ONGOING ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD/DEVELOP ENEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF IA INTO SRN WI/NRN IL. SUPERCELL STRUCTURES HAVE YET TO MERGE INTO ANY MEANINGFUL THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER AND THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME GIVEN THE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...BY 03-04Z THE PROBABILITY FOR MCS EVOLUTION APPEARS TO BE INCREASING AS LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER SERN IA/NRN IL. TORNADO THREAT SHOULD BE HIGHEST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BECOMING THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS AS MCS MATURES AND SPREADS TOWARD THE SRN GREAT LAKES AFTER MIDNIGHT. (REF LATEST MESOSCALE DISCUSSION #2123 FOR LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS ACTIVITY.) UPSTREAM ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS...STEEP LAPSE RATES NORTH OF JET AXIS WILL WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THIS SHOULD PROVE DETRIMENTAL TO ONGOING ACTIVITY ALONG THE MO RIVER INTO NERN SD/WCNTRL MN. UNTIL THEN...HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY A FEW OF THE STRONGER UPDRAFTS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING BECOMES ESTABLISHED. ..DARROW.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 05:31:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 00:31:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408270533.i7R5XjL13227@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 270530 SWODY1 SPC AC 270527 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 271200Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE ABI 10 SE BGS 35 ENE HOB 45 ESE CVS 25 ESE AMA 10 WSW GAG 20 NNW P28 40 SSE BIE 40 SW DSM 35 NNW OTM 35 W MMO 30 NNW DNV 35 E SLO 35 W MDH 35 ESE SGF 35 NW MLC 25 SE SPS 20 ENE ABI. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 20 SSW DUG 40 WSW SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 50 N BCE 30 WNW DPG 15 ESE TWF 20 NNE BKE 45 NW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 45 NNE BIL 15 ESE 81V 50 SE AIA 30 ESE BBW 35 NNW SUX 20 SSE RST 20 SW IMT 30 N ANJ ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 35 WNW DAN 10 SE SOP 15 NNW HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO WEST TX... ...OH VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... LARGE SCALE SURFACE FRONT MOVING SEWD ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY WILL BECOME THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PERIOD FRIDAY. UPSTREAM...TRAILING UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SHOULD PROGRESS INTO THE PLAINS BY LATE EVENING WITH ASSOCIATED HEIGHT FALLS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND NEARBY WARM SECTOR WHERE VERY MOIST AIRMASS/MODERATE-HIGH INSTABILITY WILL EXIST. EARLY IN THE PERIOD...REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS LOWER MI...TRAILING SWWD INTO NRN MO WHERE ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW SHOULD SERVE AS A STIMULUS FOR POTENTIAL MID DAY-LATE AFTERNOON ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS...IT APPEARS THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY SOME HAIL OR DAMAGING WINDS. LATER IN THE DAY...STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL DEVELOP ALONG AN AXIS FROM NWRN TX INTO ERN KS WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD EXCEED 8.5-9C/KM. IN THE ABSENCE OF STRONG FORCING IT APPEARS THIS HEATING WILL PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN FORCING BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS TO THEIR LFC AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS MAY NOT INITIATE UNTIL NEAR 00Z ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX...WHILE ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP EARLIER ACROSS KS. AGAIN...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE SEVERE THREATS. ..DARROW/TAYLOR.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 12:54:46 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 07:54:46 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408271255.i7RCtaL07036@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271252 SWODY1 SPC AC 271249 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0749 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 271300Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE HUF 50 N EVV 25 ESE TBN 35 WNW FYV 35 WNW ADM 50 E BGS 55 NW BGS 45 WNW LBB 30 W P28 40 SE BIE DSM 20 SSW CID 20 NNW PIA 25 WNW LAF 30 NNE HUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 N OLF 40 W MLS 35 ESE 81V 50 SE AIA 30 ENE BUB 45 SSE FSD 25 S RST 20 N JVL 35 ENE MTW 70 E MQT ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 35 WNW DAN 10 SE SOP 15 NNW HSE ...CONT... 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 15 SW DUG 40 WSW SVC 35 SSW ALM 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 50 N BCE 30 WNW DPG 15 ESE TWF 20 NNE BKE 45 NW 63S. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY... ...KS...OK AND NW TX... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED IMPULSES OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EAST INTO THE CNTRL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING. DEEP LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL PERSIST DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS FEATURE...AND SRN HALF OF COLD FRONT FROM THE GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE WILL SETTLE ONLY SLOWLY SWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS TODAY. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION TODAY IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR FROM KS THROUGH OK AND NW TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE TEMPERED SOMEWHAT BY WARM MIDDLE LEVEL TEMPERATURES...BUT MLCAPE COULD STILL APPROACH 3000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND LIFT IN FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD WEAKEN CAP ENOUGH FOR STORMS TO INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON FROM KS SWWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL WEAKEN AS NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DIMINISHES AND LEAD IMPULSE LIFTS NEWD INTO CANADA. THE STRONGER MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL LIKELY REMAIN POST FRONTAL. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHEAR IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR WILL BE LIMITED AND LARGELY SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. STILL...STORMS WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO LINES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE AND SUBSEQUENTLY SPREAD SEWD. THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL INTO THE EVENING. INTENSIFYING SSWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ACTIVITY CONTINUING SEWD THROUGH OK AND PARTS OF WRN AND NRN TX OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED BUT SOMEWHAT DIMINISHED SEVERE THREAT. ...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH OH VALLEY... CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SRN LOWER MI SWWD INTO NRN MO. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY CONTINUES MOVING EWD WHILE THE MO PORTION REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY. STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FROM OH...IND...IL AND MO...AS WELL AS ALONG THE COLD FRONT AS IT SETTLES SWD INTO SRN IA AND MO. SLIGHTLY STRONGER SHEAR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAN OVER THE OH VALLEY SUGGEST A BETTER SEVERE THREAT WITH STORMS DEVELOPING IN MO...CNTRL IL AND POSSIBLY SRN IA. MAIN THREATS WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WARM AND FLOW/SHEAR WEAKENS WITH ERN EXTENT INTO IND AND OH...SUGGESTING THREAT IN THIS AREA WILL BE MORE MARGINAL FOR STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...BUT ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. ...LOWER MI... QUESTION REMAINS HOW MUCH RECOVERY CAN OCCUR IN PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IN WAKE OF MORNING STORMS. MOST STORMS HAVE CLEARED THE STATE. HOWEVER...HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS FROM MCS OVER MO CONTINUE ADVECTING DOWNSTREAM. DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF SURFACE HEATING...ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES. THOUGH SHEAR WILL REMAIN STRONGER THAN OVER THE OH VALLEY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AS LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS NEWD INTO CANADA...WITH RESULTING WEAKENING LOW-MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND WEAKENING FORCING FOR DEEP LAYER ASCENT. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTIES AND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THIS AREA...ONLY 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL BE INTRODUCED AT THIS TIME. ..DIAL/TAYLOR.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 16:30:02 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 11:30:02 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408271631.i7RGVML03251@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 271628 SWODY1 SPC AC 271625 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 AM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 271630Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MFD 25 ENE MIE 20 SSE HUF 45 NW CGI 35 WNW FYV 35 WNW ADM 50 E BGS 55 NW BGS 45 WNW LBB 30 W P28 40 SE BIE 20 ESE P35 35 NW UIN 35 SW MMO BEH 15 NW LAN 35 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSW DUG 40 WSW SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 45 WNW 4HV 25 NW DPG 45 S BYI 45 SSW LWS 45 NNW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 70 NE BIL 81V 40 ESE AIA 15 SSW IML 20 SSW GLD 50 WSW GCK 30 S GCK 35 NNE DDC 35 ENE HLC 30 ESE HSI 15 NNW OMA 40 ENE ALO 20 E OSH 50 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 25 S ROA 15 NE GSO 20 S RDU 20 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES SWWD INTO NWRN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH POSITION WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE PERIOD. THIS WILL MEAN WLY/SWLY FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD AS MID LEVEL RIDGING HANGS ON ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE TN VALLEY. MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL UPPER MI SWD ACROSS THE DOOR COUNTY PENINSULA OF WI...THEN AS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUED OVER NERN IA AND NWRN MO...THRU A LOW OVER CENTRAL KS...THEN SWWD ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE. A SMALL MCS ACROSS NERN MO HAS LAID OUT A CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL IL WWD INTO NERN MO WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A ROLE IN ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ...PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MO AND IL... AIR MASS S AND E OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS VERY UNSTABLE THIS MORNING WITH SBCAPE GENERALLY AROUND 3000 J/KG...WITH SOME VALUES AROUND 4000 J/KG OVER EAST CENTRAL MO AHEAD OF THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. ETA MODEL DEPICTED AN MCV THAT WILL MOVE NEWD INTO NERN IL BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS MAIN MID LEVEL VORTICITY AXIS MOVES SEWD FROM WRN SD/NERN CO INTO NERN NEB/WRN KS BY 28/12Z. MODEL ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WIND MAX OF 100-130 KT FROM NWRN IA NEWD OVER WRN LK SUPERIOR PLACING AREAS FROM ERN KS INTO CENTRAL IL IN FAVORABLE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT TO ENHANCE UVVS MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW OF 30-40 KT WAS PRESENT FROM OK AND ERN KS NEWD INTO IL...IN AND LOWER MI WHICH THE ETA AND LATEST RUC MODELS WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOSTLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. MAIN THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ESPECIALLY OVER ERN KS CENTRAL PARTS OF MO INTO CENTRAL IL. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 7C/KM ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ACROSS NERN OK INTO SWRN MO NEARLY DRY ADIABATIC DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. SOME HAIL IS ANTICIPATED AS WELL WITH LARGE CAPE VALUES...BUT LIMITED WITH FREEZING LEVELS FORECAST ABV 12K FT AGL. ...PARTS OF SRN/ERN LOWER MI... PRIND ARE THAT MAIN FRONTAL FORCING WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI AND EXTREME NRN INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. AIR MASS IS MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE MID 70S AND SBCAPE VALUES AROUND 3000 J/KG. MODELS INDICATE THAT COLD FRONT WILL DRAG SEWD ACROSS LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ENHANCING UVVS ACROSS THE AREA. ANALYSIS OF MODEL SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF SOME MID LEVEL DRYING COMBINED WITH LOW/MID LEVEL WINDS OF 30-40 KT. THUS...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ..MCCARTHY.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Fri Aug 27 20:29:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 15:29:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408272030.i7RKUJL05412@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 272020 SWODY1 SPC AC 272017 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0317 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 272000Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 N MFD 25 ENE MIE 20 SSE HUF 30 W MDH 35 WNW FYV 20 WNW ADM 10 E ABI 10 WNW SJT MAF 50 ENE HOB 40 SW CDS 35 WSW P28 45 SW FNB 25 NE LWD BRL 30 WSW MMO BEH 15 NW LAN 35 SSE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E PSX 55 E CLL 60 SW TYR 25 NW ACT 30 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSW DUG 40 WSW SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 45 WNW 4HV 25 NW DPG 45 S BYI 45 SSW LWS 45 NNW 63S ...CONT... 65 NNW GGW 70 NE BIL 81V 40 ESE AIA 15 SSW IML 20 SSW GLD 50 WSW GCK 30 S GCK 35 NNE DDC 35 ENE HLC 30 ESE HSI 15 NNW OMA 40 ENE ALO 20 E OSH 50 SE ANJ ...CONT... 25 S HUL 10 SE LCI 10 WSW POU 25 SSE MRB 25 S ROA 15 NE GSO 20 S RDU 20 N HSE. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... ...MID MS VALLEY SWWD TO SRN PLAINS... HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY OVER WRN SD/ERN CO...AND MAIN UPPER TROUGH /OVER CENTRAL ROCKIES TO FOUR CORNERS REGION/ WILL SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS AND LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY THIS FORECAST PERIOD. COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NRN LOWER MI SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO TO WRN OK AND WEST CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND SOUTH. A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM EARLIER CONVECTION INTERSECTED THE COLD FRONT ACROSS NWRN MO. INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE HEIGHT FALLS AND ENTRANCE REGION OF STRONG SWLY UPPER LEVEL JET WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM NERN KS INTO NRN MO AND SRN/SERN IA. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER NWRN MO TO CENTRAL TX ATOP AXIS OF VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER /SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S/ WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN MODERATELY TO VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG/. LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY VALUES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ERN KS/ WRN AND NRN MO WITH MLCAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG. BAND OF 35-40 KT OF SWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INITIALLY ACROSS NERN KS/NRN MO TO FAR SRN/SERN IA...WITH CONTINUED SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS CENTRAL MO THEN INTO WRN IL. AS LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREAD EWD ACROSS SRN KS/WRN OK LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...CAP SHOULD WEAKEN FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS TO DEVELOP SWD ALONG THE FRONT...POTENTIALLY AS FAR SOUTH AS NWRN TX. CAPE/SHEAR COMBINATIONS WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PARAMETERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS INTO MO ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WHERE THIS BOUNDARY INTERSECTS THE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT OF TORNADOES. STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ NOSING INTO CENTRAL MO/IL WILL SUPPORT THE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO ONE OR TWO MCS/S MOVING ENEWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN GREAT LAKES/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS. ...LOWER MI... DESPITE MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SRN LOWER MI AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...WEAK FRONTAL CONVERGENCE AND WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIKELY LIMIT ANY ADDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT INTO THE EVENING. ...PORTIONS SOUTHWEST TX... WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH WITHIN PLUME OF MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE INTO SW TX WILL CONTINUE TO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING. WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES WILL LIMIT THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...DESPITE THE MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. HOWEVER...A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...GIVEN STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY. ...LEE OF LOWER GREAT LAKES... AIR MASS HAS BECOME MARGINALLY UNSTABLE ACROSS WRN NY AND MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS NERN OH/NWRN PA. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AS ONGOING LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SERN ONTARIO/ERN LAKE ONTARIO AND OVER FAR NRN OH/LAKE ERIE MOVE EWD INTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS. ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WEAKEN THIS EVENING...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF DAY TIME HEATING. ..PETERS.. 08/27/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 28 01:01:47 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Fri, 27 Aug 2004 20:01:47 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408280102.i7S12cL19553@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280100 SWODY1 SPC AC 280057 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT FRI AUG 27 2004 VALID 280100Z - 281200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SW HUF 30 W MDH 35 WNW FYV 20 WNW ADM 10 E ABI 10 WNW SJT MAF 50 ENE HOB 40 SW CDS 35 WNW END 30 WNW FLV 10 SE LWD 10 WSW BRL 15 E PIA 20 N CMI 30 SW HUF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W CAR 20 WNW LCI 20 SSE MSV 25 SSE MRB 25 S ROA 40 SSW GSO 15 ESE SOP 20 N HSE ...CONT... 20 E PSX 45 N HOU 30 SSE SHV 10 ENE TXK 30 ENE PRX 25 S FTW 35 E JCT 70 SSE DRT ...CONT... 10 SSW DUG 40 WSW SVC 40 NE ELP 25 S 4CR 30 E ABQ 25 SE DRO 40 NE 4BL 20 S U28 30 SSW SLC 30 SW SUN 20 S S80 55 NE 63S ...CONT... 45 NE HVR 20 SE LWT 50 NE COD 30 SE WRL 30 SSE CPR 15 ENE CYS 15 NE AKO 55 SSE AKO 10 NNW LAA 35 WNW EHA 50 SSW LBL 15 NE GAG 25 SSW HUT 20 N MHK 40 S FOD 30 W ALO 30 ENE MKE 45 N MTC. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... ...MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS... CONVECTION IS SLOWLY ORGANIZING ALONG COLD FRONT FROM NWRN OK...ACROSS SERN KS INTO NWRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN A ZONE OF STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 4000J/KG. 00Z SOUNDINGS FAVOR LINEAR UPDRAFT EVOLUTION WITH SEWD MOVEMENT EXPECTED THIS EVENING AS SFC FRONT ACCELERATES AFTER DARK FORCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF SERN KS INTO CENTRAL OK. FARTHER NORTHEAST...SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION APPEARS RESPONSIBLE FOR EXPANDING CONVECTION OVER NRN MO. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO AN MCS THAT WILL SAG SEWD INTO CENTRAL MO OVER THE NEXT 2-4HR. MARGINAL DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND CURRENT STORM MODE SUGGEST LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE DIURNAL COOLING RESULTS IN WEAKENING LAPSE RATES/UPDRAFTS. ..DARROW.. 08/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sat Aug 28 05:46:56 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sat, 28 Aug 2004 00:46:56 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408280547.i7S5lnL19235@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 280545 SWODY1 SPC AC 280541 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1241 AM CDT SAT AUG 28 2004 VALID 281200Z - 291200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE DUG 45 NE GUP GUC 35 SSE 4FC 25 NW LIC 35 SSE LIC 40 NNE CAO 35 NNE AMA 35 SE GAG 25 NNW PNC 10 N EMP 25 E FNB 20 S DBQ 45 NW MKG 15 SSW OSC ...CONT... 20 ENE HYA 10 N JFK 25 WSW DCA 30 NE LYH 30 SW GSO 25 E FAY 40 SE ECG. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM RRT 30 N OTG 35 NE SUX 15 SW YKN 35 SSE 9V9 10 ENE PIR 15 SSE Y22 30 N MLS 55 WSW HVR 40 NW CTB. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...OH VALLEY... LONG WAVE TROUGH OBSERVED OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE MS VALLEY REGION INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY LATE IN THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE WILL DO LITTLE MORE THAN AID THE EWD ADVANCEMENT OF SFC BOUNDARY AND OVERALL PRECIPITATION SHIELD. EARLY THIS MORNING...WIDESPREAD CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE MID MS VALLEY...EWD ACROSS NRN IL INTO NRN IND. THIS ACTIVITY IS OVERTURNING MUCH OF THE REMAINING PLUME OF STEEPER LAPSE RATES THAT HAD DEVELOPED ACROSS THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY. DOWNSTREAM...00Z SOUNDINGS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO NY DISPLAYED MARGINAL LAPSE RATES THROUGH A DEEP LAYER...ROUGHLY 5.5-6C/KM. IN THE ABSENCE OF SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND RESULTANT AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG UPDRAFTS SATURDAY. 00Z MODEL GUIDANCE AND UPPER AIR DATA SUGGEST THIS WILL PROVE DIFFICULT...ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER REMAINS QUITE MOIST. EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS WILL LIMIT HEATING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NRN OH VALLEY REGION...WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SUNSHINE/STRONG STORMS ALONG THE OH RIVER. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS OR PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A SLIGHT RISK AT THIS TIME. ...TX... BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL PROVE SIGNIFICANT ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN TX AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG WIND SHIFT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...VERY WEAK FLOW THROUGH MID LEVELS WILL NOT SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ..DARROW/BANACOS.. 08/28/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 05:05:29 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 00:05:29 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408290506.i7T56mL02461@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290504 SWODY1 SPC AC 290501 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1201 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 40 SW DLH 25 NE MKT 20 E OTG 20 ESE BKX 75 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSM 20 NNW PSF 45 NNE MSV ELM 30 SE BUF 65 N ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 45 E AGS 35 W FLO 35 NE FLO 25 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 SSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 20 SE LTS 10 ESE FTW 30 NNE GGG 40 SW PBF 20 E POF 40 E LAF 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 15 SSW ABE 35 W ILG 25 S NHK 40 SSW WAL ...CONT... 30 WSW FHU 30 SSE SOW 40 SW FMN 35 W ALS 20 ENE TAD 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW BUB 20 WSW HON 30 NNW MBG 70 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN SC/SERN NC... ...NY AND NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS SERN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE /I.E. SURFACE LOW NOW SW OF LAKE ERIE/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT LEAST A FEW STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEND LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IMMEDIATELY S OF FRONT AND AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY NEWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KTS PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS AIRMASS COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO/NWRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CNTRL MANITOBA INTO W-CNTRL OR NWRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIRMASS /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S. SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CNTRL MN AS STRONGER FORCING ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 0-3KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI TONIGHT...HOWEVER DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CAROLINAS... PER LATEST TPC TROPICAL STORM FORECAST/ADVISORY...GASTON COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTHEN PRIOR TO REACHING THE SC COAST LATER TODAY. MOIST/SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN RIGHT FORWARD QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LANDFALLING RAINBANDS. ..MEAD/BANACOS.. 08/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 05:15:30 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 00:15:30 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408290516.i7T5GkL05785@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 290514 SWODY1 SPC AC 290511 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1211 AM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 291200Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E INL 40 SW DLH 25 NE MKT 20 E OTG 20 ESE BKX 75 NNW GFK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE PSM 20 NNW PSF 45 NNE MSV ELM 30 SE BUF 65 N ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SAV 45 E AGS 35 W FLO 35 NE FLO 25 ENE ILM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 30 SSW BHB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 20 SE LTS 10 ESE FTW 30 NNE GGG 40 SW PBF 20 E POF 40 E LAF 25 NE MTC ...CONT... 20 SW JFK 15 SSW ABE 35 W ILG 25 S NHK 40 SSW WAL ...CONT... 30 WSW FHU 30 SSE SOW 40 SW FMN 35 W ALS 20 ENE TAD 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW BUB 20 WSW HON 30 NNW MBG 70 NW MOT. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN SC/SERN NC... CORRECTED FOR TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR ...NY AND NRN/CNTRL NEW ENGLAND... SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE NEWD ACROSS SRN ONTARIO AND INTO QUEBEC LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SURFACE REFLECTION OF THIS FEATURE /I.E. SURFACE LOW NOW SW OF LAKE ERIE/ WILL DEVELOP NEWD ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM LAKE ONTARIO ALONG THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. AT LEAST A FEW STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS SHOULD BE ONGOING INITIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY AND AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS/LINGERING PRECIPITATION SHOULD TEND LIMIT LAPSE RATES AND SLOW THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS IMMEDIATELY S OF FRONT AND AHEAD OF MIGRATORY SURFACE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...INFLUX OF MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO POCKETS OF MODERATE AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WHERE MLCAPES MAY APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG. EXPECT A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF UPSTATE NY NEWD INTO NRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW OF 35-45KTS PARALLEL TO FRONTAL ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS/LINE SEGMENTS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING AS AIRMASS COOLS AND STABILIZES. ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY... AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY BEFORE LIFTING MORE NEWD INTO WRN ONTARIO/NWRN GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. PRIMARY SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL DEVELOP EWD ACROSS CNTRL MANITOBA INTO W-CNTRL OR NWRN QUEBEC WHILE TRAILING PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND INTO WRN MN BY LATE AFTERNOON. A PLUME OF MODESTLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES /7-7.5 C/KM/ ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL LARGELY CONTRIBUTE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIRMASS /MLCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ AS BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 50S. SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER WRN/CNTRL MN AS STRONGER FORCING ALONG FRONT AND AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENCOUNTER AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. 0-3KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2 AND 30-40KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED/ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. TSTMS WILL LIKELY SPREAD EWD ACROSS NRN WI/WRN UP OF MI TONIGHT...HOWEVER DECREASING INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. ...CAROLINAS... PER LATEST TPC TROPICAL STORM FORECAST/ADVISORY...GASTON COULD REACH HURRICANE STRENGTH PRIOR TO REACHING THE SC COAST LATER TODAY. MOIST/SHEARED LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IN RIGHT FORWARD QUADRANT OF SYSTEM WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES EMBEDDED WITHIN LANDFALLING RAINBANDS. ..MEAD.. 08/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Sun Aug 29 20:09:54 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 15:09:54 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408292011.i7TKBeL14872@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 292005 SWODY1 SPC AC 292002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 292000Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 E RRT 30 SSW BRD 35 WSW RWF 10 WSW BKX 40 NNE ABR 75 N DVL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSW CRE 40 WSW FLO 50 ESE CLT DAN 25 NNE ECG. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W 3B1 35 ESE MWN 30 S CON PSF CXY 25 N AOO 10 N JHW 20 NW ROC. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM CAO GCK DDC 35 NW PVW CVS 55 SSE LVS CAO. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WSW FHU 30 SSE SOW 40 SW FMN 60 WNW ALS 35 NE TAD 40 WNW GLD 30 WNW BUB 20 WSW HON 45 NE MBG 55 N MOT ...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 25 SE LTS 40 S SPS 25 NE SEP 15 ENE ACT 30 NW LFK 10 NE JAN 35 SW MEM 40 ESE POF 25 SSW DAY 35 W CLE ...CONT... 25 NW HYA 30 NNW EWR 35 W ILG 25 S NHK WAL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL PA/NY ACROSS VT/NH... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ERN PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN ND/NERN SD AND WESTERN MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NM/TX/OK PANHANDLE INTO KS... ...NY/PA/VT/NH... LARGE SCALE ASCENT IN THE ENTRANCE REGION OF A 35-50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL JET OVER SRN ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND IN ADVANCE OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL PA/NY INTO INTERIOR NEW ENGLAND. THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A PRE-FRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH WHICH EXTENDED FROM WRN NY SWWD TO WV AT 19Z. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST AT BEST ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...MODERATE INSTABILITY AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE THREAT FOR LINE SEGMENTS PRODUCING PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING AS THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO STABILIZE THE AIR MASS. ...NC/SC... MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF T.S. GASTON WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS NERN SC/ERN NC...AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NWD. ...ND/SD/MN... WV IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WAKE OF A STRONGER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SRN MANITOBA AND MN. COLD MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH /-16 TO -18 C AT 500 MB/ ACROSS ND COMBINED WITH ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING AND A NARROW AXIS OF AROUND 60 F SURFACE DEWPOINTS RETURNING NWD ALONG THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER SHOULD RESULT IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. BROKEN LINE OF CU/MODERATE CU HAS DEVELOPED ALONG AN EWD MOVING SURFACE TROUGH OVER NERN SD/ERN ND...WITH CBS OVER FAR NERN ND. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION... FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE TROUGH...BUT STORM ORGANIZATION MAY BE MINIMAL. STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS STRONGER OVER SWRN MN AND MAY SUPPORT A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS WITHIN WAA CONVECTION OVER THIS AREA. ...KS/TX/OK PANHANDLE/NM... VIS IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE FROM NWRN KS TO THE WRN OK PANHANDLE INTO NERN NM...WITH THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF CENTRAL/SRN NM. MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED FROM WRN KS SWWD ACROSS WRN TX INTO MUCH OF NM. HOWEVER...WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL TEND TO SUPPORT PULSE-TYPE STORMS WITH ANY ADDITIONAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING. 18Z RUC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A TREND FOR ORGANIZED STORMS BY 00Z ACROSS PARTS OF WRN KS TO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES AND NERN NM AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR INCREASES. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..PETERS.. 08/29/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 00:52:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Sun, 29 Aug 2004 19:52:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408300053.i7U0rpL13898@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 300052 SWODY1 SPC AC 300048 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0748 PM CDT SUN AUG 29 2004 VALID 300100Z - 301200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NNW GCK 35 N RSL 35 WSW CNK 35 SE RSL 40 S DDC 40 WSW GCK 35 NNW GCK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE INL 60 ESE BRD 25 SSW MSP 35 NE OTG 50 NE BKX 20 WNW RRT. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRE 40 SW SOP 30 N SOP 50 ESE LYH 15 ENE ORF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E ITH 25 NNE BML 35 NNW AUG 30 N PWM 20 WNW CON 30 NNW MSV 20 E ITH. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NW HYA 30 NNW EWR 35 W ILG 25 S NHK WAL ...CONT... 20 NNW MQT 25 W GRB 45 W CID 25 NW TOP 25 SW P28 25 SE LTS 40 S SPS 25 NE SEP 15 ENE ACT 30 NW LFK 15 WSW JAN 15 SW UOX 25 SSE OWB 25 SSW DAY 35 W CLE ...CONT... 30 WSW FHU SAD 40 SW FMN 60 WNW ALS 25 S LHX 55 N LAA 15 S BUB 30 SSE MHE 15 N ABR 75 NNW DVL. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MN... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER WRN KS... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE NERN STATES... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN NC... ...MN... BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE TSTMS IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG PRESSURE TROUGH FROM E OF TVF TO NW OF AXN. A MORE ISOLATED CELL HAD ALSO RECENTLY DEVELOPED FARTHER TO THE E SW OF BRD. PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY TO MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-1000 J/KG. THOUGH INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED...WIND SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MAINLY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. STORMS SHOULD TEND TO WEAKEN BY 04Z AS AIRMASS STABILIZES. ...NERN STATES... 00Z ALBANY SOUNDING INDICATES THAT AIRMASS ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO CNTRL NEW ENGLAND REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. MOREOVER...CORRESPONDING WIND PROFILE SHOWED MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY WIND FIELDS THROUGH THE LOWEST 6KM. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 02 OR 03Z ALONG SRN EDGE OF CONVECTIVE BAND CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NY NEWD INTO CNTRL NH/VT. ...CAROLINAS... RUC DIAGNOSTIC FIELDS AND ERN NC VWP DATA INDICATE REGION OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1KM SRH OF 100-200 M2/S2/ TO THE N OF GASTON CIRCULATION. THOUGH AIRMASS REMAINS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF 500-700 J/KG...MOIST BOUNDARY-LAYER AND DISTRIBUTION OF BUOYANCY THROUGH THAT PORTION OF PROFILE EXHIBITING STRONGER SHEAR SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO OR TWO OVERNIGHT. ...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS... RATHER STEEP LOW TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE LARGELY CONTRIBUTED TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG/ THIS EVENING FROM ERN NM/WRN TX NWD/NEWD INTO WRN KS. SYNOPTIC FRONT /EXTENDING FROM S-CNTRL NEB INTO NERN NM/ HAS FOCUSED A CLUSTER OF STRONG TSTMS OVER PARTS OF N-CNTRL INTO WRN KS WITH MORE SCATTERED DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SW ACROSS THE TX PNHDL INTO ERN NM. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS THROUGH 03 OR 04Z APPEARS TO BE ACROSS WRN KS WHERE REGIONAL VWPS/00Z DDC SOUNDING INDICATE A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER SHEAR OF 30-40KTS. SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH THEREAFTER WITH COOLING/STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY LAYER. ..MEAD.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 12:50:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 07:50:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408301251.i7UCpEL29076@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301248 SWODY1 SPC AC 301245 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0745 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 301300Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ESE PSM 40 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 35 SE ART 10 NE HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW 7R4 50 NW MEI 25 NE BWG 25 ENE ERI ...CONT... 30 W INL 15 S STC 40 E YKN 35 E OLU 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 25 S END 30 NW SPS 40 W BWD 20 SSW AUS 15 WSW GLS ...CONT... 20 SSW FHU 50 W GUP 25 SSW ASE 35 NNE CYS 55 SSE 81V 30 E 4BQ 30 NNE MLS 55 WSW GGW 65 ENE CTB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...SYNOPSIS... SWRN U.S. RIDGE ALOFT IS FORECAST TO EXPAND NEWD THIS PERIOD...WHILE STRONGER BELT OF FLOW REMAINS ACROSS THE NRN THIRD OF THE CONUS. WITHIN THIS BELT OF FLOW...SHORT-WAVE TROUGH NOW CROSSING WRN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES IS FORECAST TO TAKE ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME AS IT SWINGS NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / ONTARIO INTO WRN QUEBEC BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...THE REMNANTS OF GASTON -- NOW A T.D. OVER CENTRAL NC -- WILL CONTINUE MOVING NEWD ACROSS NC AND INTO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING. FOR MORE INFORMATION ON T.D. GASTON...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM HPC ON THIS SYSTEM. THE ONLY OTHER SURFACE FEATURE OF INTEREST THIS PERIOD WILL BE A WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NWRN WI SWWD INTO WRN KS / ERN CO. THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AS UPPER TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD...WHILE BOUNDARY SHOULD LINGER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND... THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS WRN AND CENTRAL NY ATTM SHOULD CONTINUE / SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OCCURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER THE REGION. WITH MODERATE / GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD FORECAST...SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON. LIMITED INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS -- PARTICULARLY IF ONE OR TWO SMALL-SCALE BOWS CAN EVOLVE. THREAT SHOULD DECREASE THROUGH THE EVENING WITH DIURNAL COOLING / LOW-LEVEL STABILIZATION. ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION... WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER PERSISTS WITH T.D. GASTON...JUST S OF RDU ATTM. LATEST RAX /RALEIGH NC/ VWP INDICATES 25 TO 35 KT LOW-LEVEL FLOW NEAR THE CENTER OF GASTON AFFECTING A FAIRLY SMALL AREA AROUND THE CENTER. AS GASTON MOVES NEWD...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION / CLOUD COVER WILL SPREAD INTO SERN VA. WITH WEAK LAPSE RATES AND LITTLE HEATING...EXPECT MARGINAL INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER...VERY MOIST AIRMASS AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED / BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE. ...CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS... AIRMASS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS IS FORECAST TO DESTABILIZE THIS AFTERNOON AS MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BUT FAIRLY STEEP LOW- TO MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO YIELD AROUND 500 J/KG MEAN-LAYER CAPE ACROSS ERN CO / NERN NM AND AS MUCH AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG INTO WRN KS / THE TX AND OK PANHANDLE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF S CENTRAL KS / WRN OK / NWRN TX ATTM. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD DECREASE AS LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION DIURNALLY WEAKENS...NEW STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH WEAK /GENERALLY 10 TO 15 KT/ MID-LEVEL FLOW FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION...STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED. THEREFORE...ONLY A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT FOR HAIL / GUSTY WINDS IS FORECAST WITH A COUPLE STRONGER STORM PULSES. ..GOSS/BANACOS.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 16:24:42 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 11:24:42 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408301625.i7UGPrL23957@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 301624 SWODY1 SPC AC 301620 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1120 AM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 301630Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSM 40 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 25 N UCA 35 NNW BML 10 NE HUL. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ECG 55 NNE RWI 25 SE LYH 15 SSW SHD 40 WSW DCA 25 SE DCA 25 ENE SBY. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W INL 15 S STC 40 E YKN 35 E OLU 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 25 S END 15 ENE SPS 40 W BWD 20 SSE AUS 50 W HOU BPT 35 WNW LFT 30 E HEZ 35 NW LUL 15 NE MEI 35 W TCL 20 WNW MSL 30 E BWG 25 ENE ERI ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU 35 NE INW 25 SSW ASE 20 NW CYS 45 WSW RAP 15 WNW REJ 35 WSW GDV 40 WSW GGW 40 NNW HVR. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF VA/MD... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EASTERN NY ACROSS NEW ENGLAND... ...NEW ENGLAND... STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING INTO QUEBEC THIS MORNING...WITH MODERATELY STRONG SOUTHWEST MID LEVEL FLOW ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN AREA OF MINIMAL CLOUDS FROM EASTERN PA ACROSS SOUTHEAST NY INTO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHERN MAINE. THIS ZONE SHOULD HEAT RAPIDLY THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON INTO THE LOW/MID 80S...RESULTING IN MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG. RATHER WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEUTRAL LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL TODAY. HOWEVER...MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND 25-30 KNOT 500MB FLOW MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WITH GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. ...VA/MD... REMNANT CIRCULATION CENTER OF GASTON IS OVER CENTRAL NC...AND SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AKQ/LWX VAD PROFILES SUGGEST THAT RATHER NARROW AXIS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS IN VICINITY OF CONVECTIVE BAND OVER SOUTHERN VA. ISOLATED CELLS IN THIS BAND MAY POSE A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON...GIVEN STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS INTO THE MID 70S. THREAT MAY SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL VA BY EVENING. ...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF TX/NM/CO TODAY...WITH STRONG DIURNAL HEATING EXPECTED. CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING THIS MORNING OVER THE TX PANHANDLE MAY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH OTHER ISOLATED STORMS FORMING ALONG ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. THESE STORMS MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS. WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION. ..HART/GUYER.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Mon Aug 30 20:06:50 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 15:06:50 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408302009.i7UK9pL31065@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 302005 SWODY1 SPC AC 302002 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0302 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 302000Z - 311200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S PSM 40 SSW ALB 35 SSW UCA 25 N UCA 20 SW MWN PWM 20 S PSM. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 E ECG 55 NNE RWI 25 SE LYH 15 SSW SHD 40 WSW DCA 25 SE DCA 25 ENE SBY. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 NE HOB 30 SSW CVS 20 SE TCC 50 E TCC 30 W CDS 50 SSW CDS 60 NW ABI 20 NNE BGS 15 NE HOB. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 35 NE INW 25 SSW ASE 20 NW CYS 45 WSW RAP 15 WNW REJ 35 WSW GDV 25 SSE HVR 50 WNW CTB ...CONT... 30 W INL 15 S STC 40 E YKN 35 E OLU 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 30 SSE END 10 SW FSI 30 NNE BWD 50 NW AUS 40 S CLL 20 NNW BPT 20 SSW ESF 30 E HEZ 35 NW LUL 15 NE MEI 35 W TCL 20 WNW MSL 30 E BWG 25 ENE ERI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR GASTON ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS... ...MIDDLE ATLANTIC... REMNANTS OF GASTON ARE LIFTING NNEWD ACROSS SERN VA. WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION INLAND...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING WILL BE LIMITED TO SERN MD THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST SHEAR IS ALSO ACROSS THIS REGION AND THIS APPEARS TO BE WHERE THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL EXIST THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ...NEW ENGLAND... SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND...WELL AHEAD OF TROPICAL INFLUENCE FROM GASTON. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIFTING NWD INTO ZONE OF STRONGER HEATING/INSTABILITY FROM MA INTO SRN NY. LATEST DATA SUGGEST SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS ZONE FOR ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS. LOSS OF HEATING WILL RESULT IN WEAKENING UPDRAFTS. ...SRN HIGH PLAINS... OUTFLOW FROM EARLY MORNING MCS IS MOVING SWWD INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MOSTLY PULSE-TYPE UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND WELL AHEAD OF WIND SHIFT INTO THE MAF REGION. STRONG LOW LEVEL HEATING SHOULD CONTINUE TO AID NEW DEVELOPMENT WWD INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. IN ADDITION...IF SUFFICIENT PRECIPITATION CAN EVOLVE ALONG LONGER LIVED OUTFLOW...THIS MAY SERVE TO DRIVE A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS SWWD INTO THE LBB AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS. ..DARROW.. 08/30/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 00:33:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Mon, 30 Aug 2004 19:33:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408310034.i7V0YBL30282@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 310031 SWODY1 SPC AC 310028 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0728 PM CDT MON AUG 30 2004 VALID 310100Z - 311200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 W INL 15 S STC 15 N FRM 50 WSW FOD 15 E STJ 30 S OJC 40 E GAG 10 S LTS 35 N BWD 50 NW AUS 35 SE CLL 30 NW BPT 20 SSW ESF 30 E HEZ 35 NW LUL 15 NE MEI 25 NE TCL 30 E HSV 10 ESE LOZ 25 NNW ROC ...CONT... 35 WSW FHU 35 NE INW 25 SSW ASE 20 NW CYS 45 WSW RAP 15 WNW REJ 10 WSW GDV 20 NNW GGW 40 NNE HVR. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN PLAINS... ISOLATED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE CNTRL DAKOTAS ALONG WARM FRONT WITHIN DEEPLY-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WITH 50+ DEGREE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS. DESPITE THE LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR AN ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUST OR TWO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN WITHIN WAA REGIME ALONG NOSE OF STRENGTHENING SWLY LLJ. THOUGH SOME SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...CONTINUED WEAK INSTABILITY AND RELATIVELY WARM THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SHOULD TEND TO SUPPRESS LARGE HAIL PRODUCTION. ...ERN CO/WRN KS... ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER ERN CO WITHIN STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL AIRMASS OBSERVED IN THE 00Z DNR SOUNDING. POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR MARGINAL HAIL OCCURRENCE WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR ERN CO/FAR WRN KS THROUGH 03 OR 04Z...PRIOR TO COOLING STABILIZATION OF BOUNDARY-LAYER. ...TIDEWATER REGION... PER 00Z WAL SOUNDING...POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF REMNANT GASTON CIRCULATION MOVING NEWD ACROSS CHESAPEAKE BAY. THIS THREAT SHOULD END BY 04 OR 05Z AS CIRCULATION MOVES OFFSHORE. ..MEAD.. 08/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 16:21:37 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 11:21:37 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408311623.i7VGNVL08384@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311620 SWODY1 SPC AC 311616 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1116 AM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VALID 311630Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW YKN FSD 15 WNW MKT 35 N MCW MCW 45 SW FOD 35 E GRI 15 SE BUB 35 SW YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM GON 25 S PSM ...CONT... 35 SE AUG 30 S HUL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 70 ESE PHX 15 NW PRC 30 W GCN 40 NE GCN 55 WNW GUP 25 SE FMN 45 NW 4FC 45 NNW MHN 20 SE PIR 25 SW FAR 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC 15 NW MLI 30 N TOP 25 W P28 55 WNW ABI 10 ENE JCT 30 SSE CLL 30 W MCB 25 E MEI 50 N HKY 15 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80 20 ENE BNO 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM EASTERN NEB INTO PARTS OF MN/IA... ...NEB/SD/MN/IA... LARGE UPPER RIDGE IS IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL UNITED STATES TODAY...WITH BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLIES FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES. WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER SD WILL MOVE EASTWARD INTO MN/IA BY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH TRAILING BOUNDARY SAGGING INTO NEB. STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ELIMINATE THE CAP. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT VERY LITTLE LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL BE PRESENT. THIS SHOULD LIMIT THE AREAL COVERAGE OF STRONG STORMS. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL IN THOSE STORMS THAT CAN DEVELOP. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH RATHER RAPIDLY AFTER SUNSET. ...AZ/NM/TX... LARGE MID LEVEL THERMAL TROUGH PERSISTS ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TODAY...WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES OF -10 TO -12 OVER PARTS OF AZ/NM AND WEST TX. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF THIS REGION...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 1000 J/KG. DESPITE RATHER WEAK SHEAR...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES SUGGEST A RISK OF HAIL IN STRONGER CELLS. ..HART/CROSBIE.. 08/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.  From SWODY1 at goshenarc.org Tue Aug 31 19:59:01 2004 From: SWODY1 at goshenarc.org (SWODY1 at goshenarc.org) Date: Tue, 31 Aug 2004 14:59:01 -0500 Subject: [SWODY1] SWODY1 Message-ID: <200408312000.i7VK08L02768@mail.goshen.edu> ACUS01 KWNS 311957 SWODY1 SPC AC 311954 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT TUE AUG 31 2004 VALID 312000Z - 011200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW YKN FSD 15 WNW MKT 35 N MCW MCW 45 SW FOD 35 E GRI 15 SE BUB 35 SW YKN. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW FHU 70 ESE PHX 15 NW PRC 20 W GCN 30 ENE CNY 45 SW LAR 35 NNE AIA 20 SE PIR 25 SW FAR 45 WNW INL ...CONT... 15 ESE ANJ 20 SE ESC 15 NW MLI 30 N TOP 25 W P28 50 NNW ABI 50 S BWD 30 SSE CLL 30 W MCB 25 E MEI 50 N HKY 15 SE ORF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NE CTB 55 ENE S80 60 WNW BOI 55 E MHS 40 NE ACV 20 SE OTH 25 ENE BLI. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN NEB INTO SRN MN... ...MID MO VALLEY... LATEST VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STEEPENED SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...PER LATEST CU DEVELOPMENT ALONG SFC BOUNDARY FROM CUSTER COUNTY TO GARFIELD COUNTY IN NEB. THESE THERMALS SHOULD STRUGGLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE ABSENCE OF LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND HEIGHT RISES. HOWEVER...THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING WITHIN AIRMASS THAT IS FAIRLY UNSTABLE...SBCAPE VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 2500-3000J/KG...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF LITTLE MORE THAN PULSE-TYPE OR MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY YET DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER DARK. LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. ...SWRN TX... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND TO SOME EXTENT VIS IMAGERY...DEPICTS A WEAK UPPER VORT JUST SW OF MAF IN SWRN TX. A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED FROM SE-N OF THIS FEATURE. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...ADDITIONAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION WILL PROVE DIFFICULT IN THE VICINITY OF THIS UPPER VORT. A FEW UPDRAFTS MAY PRODUCE HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO JUSTIFY A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 08/31/2004 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.