[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 212309
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212308 
VAZ000-MDZ000-220345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0094
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CST SUN JAN 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF VA AND FAR SOUTHERN MD

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 212308Z - 220345Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DOMINANT/SHIFT EAST-NORTHEAST
THIS EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL VA...ESPECIALLY ALONG/SOUTHWEST OF
I-64...FROM LYNCHBURG/DANVILLE TO THE CHARLOTTESVILLE/RICHMOND
AREAS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO THE VA PIEDMONT VIA
LIQUID EQUIVALENTS UP TO 0.05 IN/HR. FARTHER NORTH...MAINLY SNOW
WILL LIKELY YIELD TO A MIX OF SLEET/FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING
WITH NORTH EXTENT ALONG I-95 THROUGH THE FREDERICKSBURG VICINITY AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE DC METRO.

WITH A COLD/SUB-FREEZING WEDGE REMAINING IN PLACE VIA EXITING HIGH
PRESSURE...STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND ASSOCIATED ELEVATED WARM/MELTING LAYER HAS PROVED FAVORABLE FOR
FREEZING RAIN MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
VA. WELL REPRESENTATIVE OF THIS SCENARIO...THE WET BULB PROFILE FROM
THE EARLIER 18Z OBSERVED SOUNDING FROM GREENSBORO SC FEATURED A 4.0
DEG C WARM NOSE AROUND 800 MB...FAVORABLE FOR MELTING AND RESULTANT
FREEZING RAIN. FARTHER NORTH...OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS IN ACCORDANCE
WITH RECENT ACARS DATA /NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE AND THE DC AREA/ AND
LATEST SREF PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SUGGEST BOUTS OF INITIAL SNOW
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SOME SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN EARLY THIS EVENING
ALONG I-95 NORTH OF RICHMOND...INCLUDING THE FREDERICKSBURG AREA AND
PERHAPS PORTIONS OF THE DC METRO.

..GUYER.. 01/21/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...LWX...RNK...

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