[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jan 20 19:09:42 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 201914
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 201914 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-202345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0088
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0114 PM CST SAT JAN 20 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK INTO FAR SOUTHEAST KS/FAR
NORTHERN AR/SOUTHWEST MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 201914Z - 202345Z

A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN/SLEET APPEARS LIKELY TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON FROM THE OKC METRO AREA TO AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE I-44
TURNPIKE IN NORTHEAST OK...AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST KS...WITH SOME
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG I-44 IN SOUTHWEST
MO...INCLUDING THE JOPLIN/SPRINGFIELD VICINITIES.

SPECIAL 18Z NORMAN OK OBSERVED RAOB AND RECENT ACARS SOUNDING DATA
NEAR THE OKLAHOMA CITY AIRPORT SUGGEST THE VERTICAL THERMAL PROFILE
HAS FLUCTUATED VERY LITTLE FROM THIS MORNING /REFERENCE 12Z NORMAN
RAOB/ ACROSS CENTRAL OK. WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HOLDING
NEAR 32F...AT LEAST A PARTIAL MELTING LAYER /NEARLY 2 DEG C PER THE
18Z RAOB/ AROUND 800 MB WILL REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A CONTINUANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL/NORTHEAST OK.

FARTHER EAST...WET BULB PROFILES FROM THE 18Z OBSERVED RAOB FROM
SPRINGFIELD MO SEEMS TO PRIMARILY SUPPORT SLEET WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET ACROSS SOUTHWEST MO. THE 18Z SPRINGFIELD SOUNDING ALSO
REFLECTS A TOP-DOWN SATURATION BETWEEN 600-800 MB SINCE 12Z. WITH
FURTHER SATURATION AND PRECIPITATION RATES EXPECTED TO INCREASE
THROUGH MID/LATE AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST AR INTO SOUTHWEST MO...A
MIX OF SLEET AND SOME SNOW/PERHAPS FREEZING RAIN APPEARS LIKELY.

..GUYER.. 01/20/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

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