[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 19 08:19:03 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 190821
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 190821 
TXZ000-NMZ000-191215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0081
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0221 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SOUTHEAST NM...PARTS OF WEST TX

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 190821Z - 191215Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN APPEARS TO BE ON THE
INCREASE EARLY TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND SOUTHEAST NM. THE
GREATEST CHANCE FOR GLAZE AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 0.10 INCH PER 3H
SHOULD EVOLVE GENERALLY NORTH OF I20/I10 AND WEST OF MAF  THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS EXTENSIVE TROPICAL CONNECTION AND
EVOLVING BAROCLINIC LEAF CLOUD PATTERN ACROSS NRN MEXICO...NM... AND
WEST TX. BENEATH THE MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME AND INCREASING
MID LEVEL DYNAMICS WELL AHEAD OF BAJA CLOSED LOW...LOW LEVEL AIR
MASS ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AND POINTS WEST WAS COOL/COLD AND
RELATIVELY DRY. AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE RIO
GRANDE AND PECOS VALLEYS TO SERN NM HAS CONTRIBUTED TO DIABATIC
COOLING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND SURFACE WET BULB FREEZING LINE
CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM BIG SPRING WWD ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY TO
WEST OF GDP. THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE LAGS THE WET BULB FREEZING
LINE TO THE NORTH BUT HAS BEEN SETTLING SWD EARLY TODAY AS
PRECIPITATION RATES INCREASE. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A BAND OF FREEZING RAIN COULD BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE
REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PERSISTENT ISENTROPIC LIFT ATOP THE
SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME COULD RESULT IN FREEZING RAIN RATES UP TO A
FEW HUNDREDTHS PER HOUR THROUGH 12Z.

..CARBIN.. 01/19/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SJT...MAF...EPZ...

31930556 31510537 31120471 31410354 31530174 31770092
32240071 32640101 32760189 32530393 32270551 