[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 15 05:12:12 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 150515
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 150514 
NYZ000-151115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0066
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NY

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 150514Z - 151115Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN NEW YORK DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. LOCALIZED AND HEAVIEST ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH BY 12Z.

NUMEROUS FREEZING RAIN REPORTS CONTINUE IN SOUTHERN MICHIGAN...AND
THE AIR MASS OVER THE SOUTHERN NEW YORK AREA IS SIMILAR WITH
TEMPERATURES EITHER AT FREEZING OR JUST BELOW. AS MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW YORK...FREEZING RAIN WILL DEVELOP AND IS
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVIEST FROM AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.

OPERATIONAL MODELS AGREE THAT THE BROAD REGION OF UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION AHEAD OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE
MIDWEST WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE REGION. THIS REGION OF LIFT
WILL BE JUXTAPOSED WITH AN AIR MASS THAT IS CLOSE TO
FREEZING...AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCOOLED DROPLETS AS THE
RAIN FALLS THROUGH THE SHALLOW COLD LAYER NEAR THE SURFACE.
ADDITIONALLY...THE LATEST 21Z SREF RUN SHOWS A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR
LOCALIZED FREEZING PRECIP RATES TO BE ABOVE .05 INCHES PER
HOUR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FINALLY...SOME SLEET COULD BE MIXED IN WITH THE FREEZING RAIN...ALSO
IN LOCALIZED AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
DISCUSSION AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
32 F.

..LEVIT.. 01/15/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43257890 43267785 43317673 43347621 43287571 43207511
42977455 42637385 42157366 42057393 41947432 41927482
42037550 42037694 42007770 42027840 42027882 42037922
42137951 42577899 42967890 