[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jan 13 13:45:06 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 131348
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 131347 
MOZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-131745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0049
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0747 AM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OK...SERN KS AND WRN MO

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 131347Z - 131745Z

A BAND OF HEAVY SLEET CURRENTLY OVER NW OK AND SRN KS WILL MOVE
ENEWD THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...SIGNIFICANT SLEET ACCUMULATION
WILL BE LIKELY OVER NRN OK...SRN KS INTO WRN MO WITH .5 TO 1.5
INCHES OF SLEET ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

LATEST WATER VAPOR AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOW A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
ENHANCED LIFT EXTENDING SWD FROM SRN KS ACROSS WRN OK.  THIS
ENHANCEMENT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EJECTING OUT OF NW TX ATTM. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE MCD
AREA ALONG WITH THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DDC AND AMA SHOW SLEET
TEMPERATURE PROFILES WITH A WARM LAYER LOCATED NEAR 850 MB AND A
VERY COLD LAYER IN THE LOWEST 2000 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL.
ALSO...THE 12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT MUCAPE FOR CONVECTIVE
BURSTS. 

SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE MCD AREA RANGE FROM 18 TO 22 DEGREES F WHICH
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP PRECIPITATION MODE IN THE FORM OF
SLEET AND/OR SNOW. THE HEAVIEST SLEET ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR NEAR
THE OK-KS STATE-LINE WHERE IT APPEARS A BAND OF LOCALLY HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL TRACK THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 01/13/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...

37149348 36339534 35789812 36779892 37779846 38619450 