[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 122314
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122314 
TXZ000-130045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0044
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0514 PM CST FRI JAN 12 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF CNTRL/NCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 122314Z - 130045Z

THERE WAS A CONFIRMED SHORT-LIVED TORNADO AT 2235Z JUST SW OF TROY
TX IN NRN BELL COUNTY.  OTHER BRIEF ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE
EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NCNTRL TX.  A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE BRIEF THREAT.

WARM ADVECTION SHOWERS AND ISOLD TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF
A SEWD MOVING ARCTIC FRONT ACROSS CNTRL TX.  RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
THAT BUOYANCY IS LIMITED WITH MLCAPES OF A FEW HUNDRED J PER KG AND
THE SHOWERS HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK REFLECTIVITY AND LITTLE C-G
LIGHTNING.  NONETHELESS...0-1KM SHEAR WAS IN EXCESS OF 230 M2/S2 AND
SUPPORTS POSSIBLE BRIEF ROTATION DURING UPDRAFT INFANCY.  THE
REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE THROUGH ABOUT 3KM EXHIBITS WEAKER FLOW AND
UPDRAFTS MAY STRUGGLE GIVEN WEAK BUOYANCY.  

THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD WANE THIS EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
COOLS AND THE ARCTIC FRONT SLIPS SEWD TOWARD THE REGION EFFECTIVELY
UNDERCUTTING THE SFC-BASED STORMS.

..RACY.. 01/12/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...EWX...SJT...

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