[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 080339
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080338 
GAZ000-ALZ000-080445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0036
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0938 PM CST SUN JAN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN AL THROUGH CNTRL AND SWRN GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 11...

VALID 080338Z - 080445Z

MARGINAL THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING AND A TORNADO OR TWO MAY
PERSIST A LITTLE WHILE BEYOND 04Z...BUT THREAT IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY DIMINISH IN THIS REGION. WW 11 MAY BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN
TIME FOR A COUPLE HOURS IF DESIRED. OTHERWISE...TORNADO WATCH 11
WILL EXPIRE AT 04Z. 

PRE-FRONTAL SQUALL LINE EXTENDS FROM SWRN NC SWWD THROUGH CNTRL GA
AND INTO EXTREME SERN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE MOVING SLOWLY EAST.
LOCAL RADAR DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH A CELL OVER
SWRN GA.  PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 60S AND WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES RESULTING IN MUCAPE
BELOW 300 J/KG. TREND HAS BEEN FOR LIGHTNING TO DIMINISH DURING THE
PAST COUPLE HOURS. FORECAST RUC SOUNDINGS SHOW WHAT LITTLE CAPE
REMAINS IS GENERALLY IN LAYERS BELOW 500 MB WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE
MOSTLY ABOVE -5C. THIS SUGGEST THE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SHALLOW
WITH LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHTING EXPECTED IN THIS REGION AS
THE LINE CONTINUES EAST. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
AND WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS THE STRONGER LOW LEVEL JET LIFTS NE OF THIS
AREA INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOME THREAT FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR
DAMAGING WIND MAY PERSIST ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO IN THIS
REGION...BUT OVERALL THREAT WILL REMAIN MARGINAL.

..DIAL.. 01/08/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...

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