[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 080119
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 080118 
SCZ000-NCZ000-GAZ000-080245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0035
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0718 PM CST SUN JAN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN GA THROUGH NRN SC INTO A SMALL PART OF S CNTRL
NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 080118Z - 080245Z

THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS ADVANCE EWD THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF NERN GA INTO SC.

A STRONG SLY 50+ KT LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVER THE CAROLINAS
THIS EVENING WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM
EWD ADVANCING UPPER TROUGH. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
FROM SERN SC SWWD INTO NERN GA TO LIFT A LITTLE FARTHER INLAND WITH
RESULTING NWD DESTABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S EXIST NEAR AND S OF THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DUE
TO WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN MARGINAL
WITH MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR. NEVERTHELESS...LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT
FOR SUPERCELLS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS STORMS ADVANCE EWD. SEVERE
THREAT WILL REMAIN GREATEST NEAR AND JUST S OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE
STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE NEAR SURFACE BASED.

..DIAL.. 01/08/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

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