[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 7 17:27:27 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 071731
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071731 
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-072000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0030
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 AM CST SUN JAN 07 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS AL...SERN MS...W-CENTRAL GA...WRN FL
PANHANDLE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 071731Z - 072000Z

SLOWLY DEVELOPING SVR POTENTIAL EXISTS DURING NEXT 3-4 HOURS ACROSS
DISCUSSION AREA...AS SFC GRADUALLY DESTABILIZES.  LINEAR AND
DISCRETE MODES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AND SMALL BOWS.

17Z SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE BAND
NEAR LINE FROM BTR-35 NNW TCL...INTERSECTING WARM FRONT THAT EXTENDS
ESEWD TO NEAR CSG AND VDI.  WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO
LIFT/REFORM NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/ERN AL AND WRN GA...CONSOLIDATING
AGAINST SRN EDGE OF APPALACHIAN COLD-DAMMING REGIME OVER NERN AL AND
N-CENTRAL/NWRN GA BY MID-AFTERNOON.  WARM SECTOR LOW LEVEL SHEAR
PROFILES WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE INVOF 45-55 KT SWLY LLJ...ANALYZED
FROM MS COAST ACROSS NERN AL.  HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FURTHER ENHANCED
INVOF WARM FRONT WHERE SFC WINDS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK/BACKED. 
CONVECTION FORMING IN WARM SECTOR AND CROSSING THIS FRONT WILL
ENCOUNTER RELATIVE MAXIMA IN  SHEAR AND VORTICITY...WITH 0-1 KM SRH
IN 250-350 J/KG RANGE.  

CLOUD BREAKS ARE EVIDENT IN VIS IMAGERY ATTM ACROSS PORTIONS SERN MS
AND SRN AL...ALLOWING MORE INSOLATION AND DESTABILIZATION...AND 
SUPPORTING POTENTIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALONG
HORIZONTAL ROLLS AND CONFLUENCE LINES.  OBSERVED AND RUC SOUNDINGS
MODIFIED FOR LOW 70S SFC TEMPS AND 66-68 F DEW POINTS SHOW ALMOST NO
CINH AND SBCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG.  GRADUAL INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER THETAE ALONG AND S OF WARM FRONT -- THROUGH BOTH ADVECTIVE AND
DIABATIC PROCESSES...WILL BOOST THIS MARGINALLY BUOYANT LAYER INTO
FAVORABLE THERMAL STRATA FOR LIGHTNING GENERATION.

..EDWARDS.. 01/07/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...JAN...LIX...

34348684 34028612 33898565 33678427 32868440 32288467
31408551 30728702 30908944 32458879 34078742 