[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 5 23:31:47 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 052335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052335 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-060100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0022
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0535 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...SE GA AND NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 7...

VALID 052335Z - 060100Z

A SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS NRN FL...SE GA AND ERN SC OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE AREA
OF RAIN.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH
EXTENDING SWD FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS TO THE WRN FL PANHANDLE.
THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN IS LOCATED WELL AHEAD OF THESE SFC FEATURES
AND IS ASSOCIATED WITH A BAROCLINIC LEAF AHEAD OF A NEGATIVELY
TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE RAIN...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AND THE WARM SECTOR IS CHARACTERIZED MOSTLY
BY WEAK INSTABILITY. A CENTER OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS NEAR
THE COAST OF GA WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES
OF 65 KT. THIS IS DUE TO STRONG ONSHORE SSELY FLOW AT THE SFC
COUPLED WITH A SSWLY MID-LEVEL JET AROUND 60 KT LOCATED IN SE GA.
THIS SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED
SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LARGE AREA OF RAIN. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 01/05/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...

32108212 33008163 34148028 34427949 33717878 33007965
32058092 30898139 29408165 28968215 29138276 29838274
31158240 

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