[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 211227
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211227 
WVZ000-VAZ000-OHZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-211730-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0092
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0627 AM CST SUN JAN 21 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN OH...NERN KY...AND PARTS OF WV

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 211227Z - 211730Z

A RANGE OF WINTER PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL SPREAD ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU AND UPPER OH VALLEY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
NRN PORTIONS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...FROM SWRN OH ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL WV WILL EXPERIENCE SNOW...POSSIBLY CHANGING TO FREEZING RAIN
IN SOME AREAS BY LATER THIS MORNING. SRN PARTS OF THE AREA...ALONG
THE OH RIVER...NERN KY...AND SRN WV WILL EXPERIENCE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH ICE PELLETS AT TIMES.

STRONG WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT CONTINUES TO IMPINGE UPON ENTRENCHED
SURFACE-BASED COLD DOME FROM THE UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE WRN SLOPES
OF THE APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. GRADUAL SATURATION OF DRY LOW
LEVEL AIR MASS...AND RESULTANT EVAPORATIVE COOLING FROM SWRN OH INTO
WV...WILL SUPPORT SNOW ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING.
LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS MAXIMUM SNOWFALL RATES OF AROUND 0.5
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR COULD OCCUR NORTH OF A CVG-CRW-BKW LINE THROUGH
ABOUT 18Z.

INCREASINGLY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPING NEWD FROM THE TN AND
LOWER OH VALLEYS WILL ADVECT A WARMER LAYER OF AIR NEWD ATOP THE 
SURFACE-BASED SUB-FREEZING AIRMASS FROM NERN KY INTO SRN WV.
PRECIPITATION IN THESE AREAS IS LIKELY TO FALL IN THE FORM OF
FREEZING RAIN...PERHAPS MIXED WITH SLEET AT TIMES. UPSTREAM HOURLY
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WOULD SUPPORT GLAZE ACCUMULATIONS OF AS MUCH
AS 0.10 INCH PER HOUR IN SOME AREAS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..CARBIN.. 01/21/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...JKL...ILN...LMK...

37538236 37838282 37968359 38028463 38478520 39668440
39808281 39418165 39208102 38638029 38258006 37628048
37118079 37038129 37198191 

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