[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 19 12:22:55 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 191225
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191225 
TXZ000-NMZ000-191830-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0082
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0625 AM CST FRI JAN 19 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST NM...WEST TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 191225Z - 191830Z

AREAS OF ICE PELLETS...FREEZING RAIN...AND LIGHT SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TO PLAGUE PARTS OF SOUTHEAST NM AND WEST TX THROUGH THE MORNING.
WHILE OVERALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
0.05 INCH LIQUID EQUIVALENT PER HOUR...ROAD SURFACES BETWEEN MAF AND
LBB MAY BECOME SLICK. HIGHER ELEVATIONS ACROSS FAR WEST TX AND SERN
NM COULD EXPERIENCE A MIX OF ICE PELLETS AND SNOW... PERHAPS
CHANGING TO ALL SNOW AT SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE MORNING.

WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT HAS DEVELOPED ATOP COLD SURFACE-BASED AIR
MASS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS THIS MORNING.
LARGE SCALE JET COUPLING BETWEEN MID LEVEL CONFLUENCE ZONE ACROSS
THE PLAINS AND UPPER LOW OVER BAJA WILL MAINTAIN STRONG LOW THROUGH
MID LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING.
LATEST 4KM WRF-NMM AND WRF-NSSL SUPPORT MAXIMUM HOURLY PRECIPITATION
RATES BETWEEN 0.03 AND 0.05 INCH ACROSS THE AREA OF CONCERN THROUGH
18Z.

RECENT RADAR AND OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST A RELATIVELY
NARROW RIBBON OF FREEZING RAIN SHOULD DEVELOP CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE
WET-BULB FREEZING LINE. THIS LINE CURRENTLY PARALLELS I20 FROM THE
MAF AREA TO NORTH OF PECOS. FARTHER NORTH...RADAR REFLECTIVITY AND
MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES INDICATE ICE PELLETS AND/OR FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FORECAST PROFILES ALSO INDICATE THAT WEAK ELEVATED
WARM LAYER DIMINISHES IN STRENGTH NORTH OF A GDP-CNM-LBB LINE AS
STRONGER ASCENT DEVELOPS ACROSS THESE AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING.
THUS...A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW...OR A MIX OF SNOW AND ICE PELLETS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY PRECIPITATION TYPES IN THE NRN/NWRN
PORTIONS OF THE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION AREA.

..CARBIN.. 01/19/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...MAF...ABQ...EPZ...

32410073 32130138 31730213 31690356 31390400 30990429
31030485 31490551 31720554 32490531 33080498 33480434
33700331 33830223 33920144 33860029 33380022 32740047 