[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 15 12:48:01 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 151250
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151250 
MEZ000-NHZ000-MAZ000-VTZ000-NYZ000-151645-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0650 AM CST MON JAN 15 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...NH...VT...MA

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 151250Z - 151645Z

FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE MORNING IN
A WIDESPREAD AREA FROM BUFFALO NY EXTENDING EWD TO ALBANY NY AND TO
JUST NORTH OF BOSTON MA. ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION SHOULD OCCUR
WITH UP TO A HALF INCH OF FREEZING RAIN MIXED WITH SLEET POSSIBLE IN
SOME AREAS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED FROM NRN
OH EXTENDING EWD INTO FAR NRN PA AND ACROSS TO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
ATTM...THE FREEZING LINE IS LOCATED WITHIN 50 MILES NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY IN FAR SRN NY AND MA. 12Z SOUNDINGS FROM ALBANY NY AND
BUFFALO NY SHOW A THICK WARM LAYER STARTING FROM 1500 TO 2500 FEET
ABOVE GROUND LEVEL EXTENDING NEARLY TO THE 700 MB LEVEL IN BOTH
SOUNDINGS. THE WARMEST AIR IS LOCATED NEAR 850 MB WITH TEMPS IN THE
4 TO 6 CELSIUS RANGE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP THE WARM LAYER INTACT
THROUGH MIDDAY SUGGESTING A STRONG POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND
TO A LESSER EXTENT SLEET. WIDESPREAD FREEZING RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
DUE TO STRONG ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE REGION.
PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO BECOME ENHANCED BY LATE MORNING DUE TO
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION NORTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE SLEET POTENTIAL SHOULD BE GREATEST ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE
MCD AREA.

FREEZING RAIN MAY DIMINISH BY LATE MORNING ACROSS THE FAR WRN PART
OF THE MCD AREA AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD. IN ADDITION...THE
FREEZING LINE SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NWD ALLOWING FOR SOME AREAS IN THE
SRN PART OF THE MCD AREA TO CHANGEOVER TO RAIN.

..BROYLES.. 01/15/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

43547093 42677160 42367268 41937446 42097547 42067736
42167805 42377891 43027929 43777866 43927667 43977227
43687087 

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