[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 14 18:47:14 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 141850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141849 
OKZ000-TXZ000-142215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0063
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...PORTIONS OF N-CNTRL TX

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 141849Z - 142215Z

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OF SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN WILL
MOVE EWD AFFECTING MUCH OF ERN OK THROUGH 22Z. PRECIPITATION
ACCUMULATION RATES OF .10 TO .20 IN/HR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH LATER THIS
AFTERNOON.

A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS HAS MOVED RAPIDLY INTO
ERN OK...WITH THE BACK EDGE OF PRECIPITATION FROM AROUND ALVA OK TO
MWL. MUCH OF THE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN SLEET WITH AN
OCCASIONAL MIX OF FREEZING RAIN IN CNTRL OK. RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
INDICATES MUCAPES OF AOB 500 J/KG OVER CNTRL/ERN OK AND N-CNTRL TX
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTM POTENTIAL. AT 18Z...THE
SURFACE FREEZING LINE WAS LOCATED FROM AROUND 20 W OF FYV TO NEAR
DFW. SIGNIFICANT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE JUST W OF
THIS LINE...ALONG THE US-69 CORRIDOR IN ERN OK.

MORNING MODEL GUIDANCE ARE CONSISTENT IN DIMINISHING PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD OCCUR AS 850 TO 700 MB WINDS
BECOME MORE WLY WITH CORRESPONDING DECREASES IN RH AND INTENSIFYING
ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE.

..GRAMS.. 01/14/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...

32899698 32629747 33469731 33959720 34629704 35739672
36539622 36799596 36939537 36739500 36579477 36199502
34899566 34469603 33449669 

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