[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 14 12:37:01 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 141240
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 141239 
OHZ000-MIZ000-INZ000-141845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0058
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST SUN JAN 14 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI...NRN IN AND NWRN OH

CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION 

VALID 141239Z - 141845Z

A LARGE AREA OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET...WITH SLEET THE PREDOMINANT
PTYPE IN SRN LOWER MI...WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE ENDING BY 18Z.

A REGION OF MODEST ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND MID LEVEL LIFT AHEAD OF A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER
THE MID MS VALLEY WAS SUPPORTING A LARGE OF MIXED PRECIP OVER NRN
IN/NWRN OH AND SRN LOWER MI. THE 12Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL
SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACCUMULATION RATES UP TO 0.25 IN FOR BRIEF
PERIODS. RECENT SFC OBS AND THE 12Z DTX SOUNDING INDICATED A
SUFFICIENTLY SMALL ENOUGH ELEVATED WARM LAYER THAT SLEET WILL BE THE
PRIMARY PTYPE NORTH OF I-94. GIVEN THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
FORCING...STEADY LIGHT TO MDT PRECIP SHOULD END ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA BY AROUND 18Z.

..CROSBIE.. 01/14/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...LOT...

42568338 42738481 42618711 41838753 41378733 41188697
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