[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 14 02:10:54 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 140214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140213 
LAZ000-TXZ000-140445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0055
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0813 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX.

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL 

VALID 140213Z - 140445Z

POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL -- COMPOUNDED BY TRAINING OF HEAVIEST
PRECIP CORES -- WILL SHIFT EWD ACROSS LFK-HOU CORRIDOR THROUGH
5Z...WITH LOCAL RAIN RATES BRIEFLY REACHING 2 INCHES/HOUR AND
COMMONLY 1-1.5 INCH/HOUR IN TSTMS.

SFC MESOANALYSIS AT 2Z SHOWS COLD FRONT BETWEEN ANGELINA-WRN
HARRIS-NACOGDOCHES COUNTIES...MOVING SEWD APPROXIMATELY 15 KT.  RICH
MOISTURE IN GULF AIR MASS -- CHARACTERIZED BY 1.75-2 INCH
PW...MID-UPPER 60S F SFC DEW POINTS... AND 14-15 DEG C ESTIMATED 850
MB DEW POINTS SHOULD PERSIST IN WARM SECTOR.  MOST ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR JUST BEHIND BOUNDARY AS FRONTAL AND ISENTROPIC LIFT FORCED
PARCELS TO LFC.  WEAK MESOLOW --ANALYZED ALONG FRONT N HOU -- MAY
LEAD TO ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO ITS IMMEDIATE NE AS WELL. 
DEEP-LAYER MEAN FLOW WILL REMAIN ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO ZONE OF
STRONGEST CONVECTIVE FORCING...AS LATTER MOVES SLOWLY
EWD...RESULTING IN REPEAT PASSAGE OF HEAVY CORES OVER SOME LOCALES.

MODIFIED PROFILER/VWP/RUC SOUNDING DATA INDICATE SUFFICIENT VERTICAL
SHEAR TO SUPPORT SUPERCELL POTENTIAL...AND CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE LAYER IN WARM SECTOR SOUNDINGS INDICATES
POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.  HOWEVER...LINEAR
INCLINATION OF CONVECTIVE MODE...COMBINED WITH ANAFRONTAL REGIME
KEEPING MOST ACTIVITY BEHIND COLD FRONT...WILL KEEP SVR POTENTIAL
MRGL AT BEST.

..EDWARDS.. 01/14/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...

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