[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Jan 14 00:16:51 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 140020
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 140019 
ILZ000-MOZ000-140415-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0054
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0619 PM CST SAT JAN 13 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN MO

CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN 

VALID 140019Z - 140415Z

FREEZING RAIN WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SRN MO EARLY THIS
EVENING...GENERALLY ALONG THE I-44 CORRIDOR FROM SGF TO THE SRN STL
METRO AREA. PRECIPITATION RATES AROUND .05 IN/HR CAN BE
EXPECTED...WITH LOCALIZED RATES IN EXCESS OF .10 IN/HR OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. THE OVERALL THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING RAIN WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.

THE SURFACE FREEZING LINE HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS EXTREME NWRN AR...SRN MO AND WRN IL. AS OF
14/00Z...IT EXTENDED FROM AROUND 20 NW OF FYV TO 20 N UNO TO ALN. A
LARGE AREA OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN HAS BEEN STEADILY MOVING EWD ACROSS
SWRN MO/FAR NWRN AR /PER REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/. THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THIS PROGRESSION AS IT BECOMES ABSORBED INTO
THE WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT REGION RUNNING FROM THE TX COASTAL BEND
TOWARDS THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY. 13/21Z RUC AND 13/18Z NAM MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATE 700-500 MB MID-LEVEL DRYING WILL ENSUE BEHIND THIS
LAST SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION...EVIDENCED BY THE 14/00Z OUN
OBSERVED SOUNDING. IN ADDITION...AS THE UPPER MIDWEST/LOWER GREAT
LAKES UPPER-LEVEL JET QUICKLY MOVES EWD THIS EVENING...FAVORABLE
RIGHT-ENTRANCE DIVERGENCE PRESENTLY ACROSS THE MCD AREA WILL SHIFT
EWD AS WELL. THUS...THE OVERALL THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN WILL
DIMINISH...ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z.

..GRAMS.. 01/14/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

...NOTICE...
SPC WINTER WEATHER MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS WILL BE ISSUED ON A
SCHEDULED BASIS FROM DECEMBER 1 THROUGH FEBRUARY 28...FOUR
TIMES A DAY...AROUND 00 UTC...06 UTC...12 UTC...AND 18 UTC
FOR SIGNIFICANT SHORT RANGE WINTER WEATHER EVENTS.

ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...

37289161 36999256 36869304 36789333 36779366 36969385
37349387 37699382 37869341 38149258 38469156 38689053
38299034 37809070 