[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 062043
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 062043 
MEZ000-NHZ000-062145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0028
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0243 PM CST SAT JAN 06 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SRN/ERN NH...SRN/WRN MAINE.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 062043Z - 062145Z

SEVERAL SHORT LINES OF CONVECTION -- WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS --
MAY PRODUCE GUSTS NEAR SVR LIMITS WITH MINOR DAMAGE.  SVR THREAT
APPEARS TOO MRGL AND SHORT-LIVED FOR WW.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT MOVING EWD FROM VT INTO NH...EXPECTED
TO MOVE EWD APPROXIMATELY 30 KT INTO WRN MAINE DURING NEXT 2 HOURS. 
SHORT/NARROW BANDS OF TSTMS -- INCLUDING ONE WHICH PRODUCED GUST TO
37 KT AROUND 19Z AT BTV -- WILL MOVE THROUGH RELATIVE MAX OF LOW
LEVEL TEMPS AND MOISTURE.  SFC THETAE AXIS IS EVIDENT ALONG A LINE
FROM ORH...LEW...45 NNW AUG.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INDICATE
BUOYANCY MAY EXTEND INTO LOWER LIMITS OF FAVORED THERMAL LAYERS FOR
LIGHTNING PRODUCTION...AND A FEW CG STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED OVER
PORTIONS NRN VT/NH.  POCKETS OF SBCAPES UP TO ABOUT 300 J/KG ARE
EVIDENT INVOF THETAE AXIS AND WILL BE MAINTAINED UNTIL CONVECTION
MOVES INTO CENTRAL/ERN MAINE...WHERE MARINE AIR WEAKENS SFC-BASED
INSTABILITY.  MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC --
E.G. 50-70 KT AT 2-3 KM AGL -- MAY BE TRANSPORTED TO SFC IN MOST
VIGOROUS DOWNDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY ON W FACING SLOPES OF HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.

..EDWARDS.. 01/06/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...

42927184 43857129 44817085 45167040 44356955 43866996
43657031 43257056 42927081