[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Jan 6 03:12:49 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 060316
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060316 
NCZ000-VAZ000-060445-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0025
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0916 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NE NC...SE VA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 8...

VALID 060316Z - 060445Z

AN AREA OF HEAVY RAIN OVER ERN SC AND CNTRL NC WILL MOVE ENEWD LATE
THIS EVENING AFFECTING NE NC AND SE VA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE
REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS POSSIBLE AND A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD EXIST AS STORMS ORGANIZE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD.  TORNADO WATCH 8 MAY NEED TO BE REPLACED IF THIS
SCENARIO DEVELOPS.

A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT. A BAND OF
CONVECTION IS LOCATED ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AHEAD OF THE
CONVECTION...THE AIRMASS REMAINS UNDISTURBED WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S F AS FAR NORTH AS RICHMOND VA. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES EXIST ACROSS THE REGION.
AS THE UPPER-TROUGH APPROACHES...SHEAR PROFILES SHOULD GRADUALLY
STRENGTHEN BECOMING INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR LOW-TOPPED ROTATING
STORMS. IF THIS WHERE TO HAPPEN...A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND
ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WOULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION.

..BROYLES.. 01/06/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...

35257576 34957706 35487814 36127841 36947820 37457750
37507642 36627555 