[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 060201
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 060201 
NCZ000-SCZ000-060330-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0024
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0801 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SC...CNTRL AND ERN NC

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 8...

VALID 060201Z - 060330Z

THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS TORNADO WATCH 8 WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THIS EVENING. A FEW TORNADOES AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED STORMS.

A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS LOCATED
NEAR GREENSBORO NC EXTENDING SWD ACROSS CNTRL SC. AHEAD OF THE AREA
OF RAIN...A MOIST WARM SECTOR EXISTS AND THE AIRMASS HAS BEEN
UNTOUCHED ACROSS MOST OF TORNADO WATCH 8 WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
REMAINING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES HAVE STEEPENED SOME ACROSS THE SRN PART OF
TORNADO WATCH 8 OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS AND THIS MAY BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE INCREASE IN INSTABILITY SHOWN BY RUC ANALYSIS. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA AND
THIS SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME AS A 60 KT MID-LEVEL JET DRIFTS ENEWD
INTO THE AREA. FOR THIS REASON...THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NEXT 1 TO
2 HOURS. LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES
AND WIND DAMAGE LATE THIS EVENING.

..BROYLES.. 01/06/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MHX...RAH...ILM...

33057876 33347975 34377980 34897967 35467952 35737869
35677728 35547632 35067605 34267670