[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 5 21:17:10 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 052120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 052120 
NCZ000-SCZ000-052245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0020
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...NC PIEDMONT/SANDHILLS AND PART OF NERN SC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 052120Z - 052245Z

NARROW ARC OF LOW-TOPPED STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES MOVING
ENEWD ACROSS UPSTATE SC AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO SRN PIEDMONT
AREA OF NC OVER THE NEXT HOUR. LATEST TRENDS SUGGEST THAT
REFLECTIVITY WITHIN THE LINE HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...LARGE SCALE
FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG ASCENT ACROSS NC THROUGH
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER DOWNSTREAM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

DESPITE INTENSITY TRENDS...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH EXIT REGION OF
50-60KT MID LEVEL JET STREAK WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ATOP MOIST AND
WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS CNTRL NC AND NERN SC THROUGH THIS
EVENING. CURRENT ACTIVITY MOVING INTO CLT AREA IN THE NEXT HALF HOUR
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN AIR MASS AND LOW
LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE AREA. GIVEN LATEST TRENDS AND TIME OF
DAY...THE OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE DIMINISHING. HOWEVER...IF
ONGOING CONVECTION REMAINS STRONG TO NEAR SEVERE...A NEW WATCH MAY
BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NC IN THE NEXT HOUR.

..CARBIN.. 01/05/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...RAH...ILM...RNK...CAE...GSP...

35548154 35628135 36278058 36437960 35867891 35057915
34407943 34407983 34667981 35448047 