[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Jan 5 19:12:53 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 051917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 051916 
SCZ000-GAZ000-FLZ000-052115-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0018
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0116 PM CST FRI JAN 05 2007

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST GA...SRN SC...NRN FL

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 4...

VALID 051916Z - 052115Z

A NEW TORNADO WATCH...ENCOMPASSING PARTS OF SERN GA/NRN FL...AND
PERHAPS SRN SC...MAY BE NEEDED IN ABOUT AN HOUR.

WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS FROM THE NERN GULF OF MEXICO
INLAND ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE AND SRN/CNTRL GA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WAS WITHIN A ZONE OF VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AHEAD OF
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS MA/AL. NRN PART OF
THE LARGER SCALE QLCS....FROM NERN GA INTO NWRN SC...HAS RACED NEWD
AHEAD OF THE SRN AREA OF WIDESPREAD TSTM ACTIVITY OVER SWRN GA AND
FL. THE STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THESE AREAS HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
EMBEDDED WITHIN LARGER RAIN SHIELD AND HAS LOST SOME LINEARITY OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER... ISOLATED CELLS ARE OCCASIONALLY
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MCS AND HAVE SHOWN A TENDENCY TO ROTATE. A
COUPLE OF THE MORE INTENSE CELLS AHEAD OF THE MCS WERE NOTED IN
HOUSTON COUNTY GA...AND SOUTH OF FRANKLIN COUNTY FL...IN THE
GULF...OVER THE PAST HOUR.

WHILE IT APPEARS THAT DEEP CONVECTION MAY HAVE TEMPORARILY OUTRUN
STRONGER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE...THE
STRONG DRY PUNCH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR WILL SOON BEGIN TO OVERRUN
STRONGER DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURRING ACROSS NRN FL AND SRN 
GA. SHEAR ACROSS THESE AREAS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUFFICIENTLY
STRONG TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES INTO THE
EVENING. THUS...EXPECT A NEW TORNADO WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SHORTLY.

..CARBIN.. 01/05/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CHS...CAE...TBW...JAX...FFC...TAE...

29658126 29438321 29488333 29798449 29548516 29618558
30088527 33098322 33278244 33108034 