[MCD] SWOMCD

Mon Jan 1 00:10:59 UTC 2007

ACUS11 KWNS 010015
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010014 
MIZ000-OHZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-010215-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 PM CST SUN DEC 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NE IL...NRN IN...SRN LWR MI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 010014Z - 010215Z

ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER...OCCURRING NEAR CYCLONIC VORTICITY
CENTER ASSOCIATED WITH COLD CORE OF NORTHEASTWARD ACCELERATING UPPER
LOW...HAS BEEN GENERATING STRONG GUSTY WINDS APPROACHING SEVERE
LIMITS.  PEAK GUSTS NEAR/IN EXCESS OF 40 KTS HAVE BEEN RECORDED AT
BLOOMINGTON/CHAMPAIGN AND MATTOON...LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO
EVAPORATIVE COOLING/DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER IN STRONGER
DOWNDRAFTS.  THOUGH DAYTIME SURFACE HEATING HAS BEEN WEAK...
LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING/DRYING AHEAD OF MAIN SURFACE FRONT
HAS CONTRIBUTED TO VERY STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTING THIS PROCESS...WHICH MAY NOT BE APPRECIABLY AFFECTED BY
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.  THUS...RISK FOR STRONG GUSTY...
POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS MAY CONTINUE WITH CONVECTION AS IT
SPREADS ACROSS LAFAYETTE IND AREA AND AREAS NEAR/SOUTH OF
CHICAGO...THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN BY
LATE EVENING.  AS ACTIVITY APPROACHES THE DETROIT AREA TOWARD
04-06Z...MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STORMS MAY BEGIN TO DIMINISH
ASSOCIATED WITH STABILIZATION AS LOW-LEVEL COOLING OVERTAKES COOLING
ALOFT.

..KERR.. 01/01/2007

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...ILX...

41118844 41898801 42858666 42978527 42168426 40928502
39738605 39208713 39238780 40038772 40638817 

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