[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 222258
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222258 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-230030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0558 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO AR

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 222258Z - 230030Z

TORNADO WATCH 786 EXPIRES AT 00Z...BUT ANOTHER ONE WILL BE
NEEDED...MAINLY FOR AREAS N OF INTERSTATE 40.  TORNADO WATCH 787
WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH 02Z IN ECNTRL OK...NWRN AR AND PARTS
OF SWRN MO.

MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR KSGF SWWD INTO
SCNTRL OK.  THE DRYLINE HAS BEEN ESSENTIALLY INERT WITH MAIN
CONVECTIVE INITIATION OCCURRING WITH THE HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS
DEEPLY IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS NRN AR.  THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE
FAVORING NORTHERN EDGE OF A SFC THERMAL RIDGE AND ALONG A WARM FRONT
SITUATED ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER.

SHORT TERM MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE PRIMARY INITIATION ZONE SHOULD
REMAIN FROM ECNTRL OK NEWD INTO NRN AR.  BUT...THERE MAY BE A
TENDENCY FOR BACKBUILDING STORMS INTO CNTRL AR AND ALONG THE DRYLINE
IN ERN/SRN OK AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM IMPULSE DIGS SEWD TOWARD THE
REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

TSTMS WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONGLY SHEARED AIR MASS WITH
STRONG LOW-LEVEL HELICITY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AR/MO BORDER AREA.
PRIND THAT AREAS FROM INTERSTATE 40 NWD WILL NEED ANOTHER WW BY 00Z.
 S OF I-40...TSTM COVERAGE OUGHT TO REMAIN LIMITED.

..RACY.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34579595 36039440 36339187 36279028 35319037 34509122
34099244 33999443 34389598