[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 22:07:43 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222208
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222208 
INZ000-KYZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-230015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2011
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0508 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...SRN/CENTRAL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790...

VALID 222208Z - 230015Z

CLUSTER OF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS /SOME LIKELY SIGNIFICANT/ WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD AROUND 40 KTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN HALF OF WW
788 /SCENTRAL/SERN MO AND SRN IL/ AND ACROSS WRN KY AND EVENTUALLY
SWRN IND /WW 790/ OVER THE NEXT 2 HRS.

RECENT RADAR IMAGERY FROM STL AND PAH INDICATED SEVERAL STRONGLY
ROTATING SUPERCELLS. ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION REMAINS EXTREMELY
FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES /0-1 KM SRH UP TO 350 M2/S2/ WITH A FEW DMGG
TORNADOES POSSIBLE. MOST FAVORABLE LOCATION OF SIG TORNADO POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE OVER FAR WRN KY AND SRN IL WHERE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 350 M2/S2 AND PRESSURE FALLS /2-3 MB/2 HR/
EXIST. AS SUPERCELLS CONTINUE TO MOVE FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD THROUGH WRN
KY AND INTO SWRN IND/SERN IL...THEY WILL ENCOUNTER MORE STABLE
AIRMASS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR MVN TO SOUTH OF
EVV TO NEAR BWG. THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT SLOWLY NWD
AND SUPPORT A DEVELOPING TORNADO THREAT INTO SERN IL/SWRN IND IN THE
NEXT FEW HRS AS LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. HOWEVER THE SVR THREAT IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN LIMITED INTO CENTRAL KY AND THE REST OF SRN
IND.

FURTHER NORTH...THERE APPEARS TO BE A LIMITED SHORT TERM THREAT OF
SVR WEATHER IN THE IMMEDIATE STL AREA/ECENTRAL MO...AS VIS SAT
IMAGERY SHOWS NO APPARENT TOWERING CU ALONG THE SFC CONFLUENCE
BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL MO. HOWEVER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS
WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE CONFLUENCE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL
IL. SOMEWHAT WEAKER LOW LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SRH AROUND 250 M2/S2/
WILL STILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADIC POTENTIAL.

..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

40278819 40318995 40149076 39479160 38279209 37049260
36619248 36619014 36678849 36698761 36808741 38518704
38608858 