[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 19:20:08 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221921
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221920 
INZ000-ILZ000-WIZ000-IAZ000-222145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2006
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0220 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL...NWRN IND...FAR ERN IA AND SRN WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 221920Z - 222145Z

SVR STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
NEXT 2-3 HRS. TORNADO WW MAY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS 21Z.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NERN IA SEWD
TO JUST SOUTH OF THE CHI METRO AREA. COPIOUS CLOUD COVER HAS AIDED
IN A SLOW WARMUP SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
CENTRAL/NRN IL AND SERN IA. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATED AROUND 50
J/KG OF MLCINH REMAINS OVER CENTRAL IL WHILE THE 18Z DVN SOUNDING
INDICATED OVER 100 J/KG OF MLCINH. INCREASING CLOUDS OVER NRN IL AND
ERN IA IN THE LAST 1-2 HRS ARE A RESULT OF PASSING UPPER LEVEL JET
MAX OVER THE MID MS VALLEY. AS THIS JET MAX MOVES AWAY FROM THE
REGION...INCREASING INSOLATION AND DIMINISHING CINH SHOULD SUPPORT
SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REGION. THE MOST LIKELY LOCATIONS FOR
SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE MAIN WARM FRONT
AND ALONG A CONFLUENCE TROUGH/MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT RESIDES NEAR
THE MS RIVER /PER DVN RADAR IMAGERY/. STRONG LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR
/20-30 KTS OF 0-1 KM SHEAR/ AND MODEST INSTABILITY /1000 J/KG OF
MLCINH/ WOULD FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
TORNADOES. SVR THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO SRN WI/NWRN IND BY EARLY
EVENING /AFTER 23Z/ IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURS IN THESE
AREAS OCCURS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...

40218838 40309026 40689062 41349093 42099072 43309018
43398908 43348831 43278744 41968681 40498710 