[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 221715
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221715 
TNZ000-KYZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221845-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2003
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1215 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF AR INTO WRN TN AND NWRN MS

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 786...

VALID 221715Z - 221845Z

TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY MORE NUMEROUS ACROSS WRN
AND PERHAPS SRN PORTIONS OF WW AREA THROUGH EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. 
ENVIRONMENT REMAINS QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
TORNADOES...SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG.

REGIONAL VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEEPENING
CUMULUS AND/OR EARLY TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER NWRN AR AND NEAR AND NE
OF TXK.  HERE...THE COMBINATION OF A MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS
COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO MODERATE
INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.  WHILE LIT VWP SHOWS
THAT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR HAS WEAKENED OVER THE COURSE OF THE
MORNING...ENVIRONMENT STILL REMAINS VERY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF TORNADOES OWING TO THE DECREASE IN AIR MASS STABILITY
COUPLED WITH MODERATELY STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND 0-1 KM SRH OF
150-250 M2/S2.
 
THEREFORE...EXPECT THE GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL TO INITIALLY EXIST
ALONG WRN FRINGE OF WW AREA /I.E. FROM E OF FSM TO HRO/ EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS FREE WARM SECTOR OVER SRN INTO CNTRL
AR.

..MEAD.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...

35129482 35759453 36739347 36809105 36728861 34658886
33888962 33159388 33539501