[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 16:11:56 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221611
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221610 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-TXZ000-221745-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2002
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK INTO SWRN MO

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 221610Z - 221745Z

THE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES IS
FORECAST TO INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
NECESSARY.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW NE OF TUL ALONG
ATTENDANT PRESSURE TROUGH/CONFLUENCE LINE EXTENDING NE-SW FROM CNTRL
MO INTO S-CNTRL OK.  MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT SWLY 40-50 KT LLJ IS
CONTRIBUTING TO NWD MOVEMENT OF WARM FRONT WITH THIS FEATURE
EXTENDING FROM NERN OK SURFACE LOW INTO FAR SWRN MO AND THEN MORE
SEWD INTO NERN AR.  VISIBLE SATELLITE SUGGESTS THAT BOUNDARY-LAYER
ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY BUOYANT WITH
HORIZONTAL CONVECTIVE ROLLS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED FROM SGF SWWD TO
E OF TUL...AND AN INCREASING CUMULUS FIELD SWD ACROSS ERN OK.

THE ABSENCE OF ANY DISCERNIBLE IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN BROAD TROUGH
OVER THE S-CNTRL U.S. SUGGESTS THAT STORMS MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN THIS MOIST AIR MASS WHERE MLCAPES SHOULD
INCREASE TO 2000-3000 J/KG...DESPITE MID-LEVEL WARM NOSE OBSERVED ON
12Z SOUNDINGS. BOTH LOW AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
QUITE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 50-60 KTS AND 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-250 M2/S2.

CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED AND A WW WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.

..MEAD.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

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