[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 13:35:14 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221335
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221335 
TNZ000-MSZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-221500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2001
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0835 AM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK/NERN TX NEWD INTO WRN TN/NWRN MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 221335Z - 221500Z

POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF TORNADOES APPEARS TO BE
INCREASING TO THE SW OF WW 785.  A REPLACEMENT TORNADO WATCH WILL BE
ISSUED SHORTLY.

SYNTHESIS OF SURFACE ANALYSIS...RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA SUGGESTS
THAT STORMS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING N OF LIT ARE BEING FORCED BY SWLY
40 KT LLJ AXIS IMPINGING ON OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NEAR RKR
TO N OF LIT TO NEAR MEM.  MODIFICATION OF 12Z LIT SOUNDING FOR
CONDITIONS NOW BEING OBSERVED OVER SWRN AR INDICATES THAT
ENVIRONMENT IS LARGELY UNCAPPED FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS WITH
MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.  WHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WOULD SUGGEST
THAT THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS
UPSTREAM...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MORNING.

KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT REMAINS VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 400-450 M2/S2
AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 60 KTS /PER LATEST LIT VWP/.  POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA TODAY.

..MEAD.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

33809544 34859500 35559388 36129214 36329058 36168986
35768931 35218915 34239005 33419219 32969409 33109491 