[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 00:50:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220050 
ARZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-220245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1997
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN OK...NCNTRL/NERN TX AND WCNTRL/SWRN AR

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 783...

VALID 220050Z - 220245Z

21Z VERSION OF THE 4KM WRF HAS BEEN QUITE ACCURATE IN DEPICTING
STRONGER TSTM INITIATION ACROSS SERN OK FROM HASKELL SWWD TO
MARSHALL COUNTIES IN OK.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE ENEWD INTO
WCNTRL AR LATER THIS EVE.  PROSPECTS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE TSTMS
APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING ACROSS THE METROPLEX REGION.

00Z MESOANALYSIS TIME-SERIES CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASING THROUGH LA TOWARD THE ARKLATEX WHERE SFC DEW POINTS WERE
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.  THIS AIR MASS SHOULD ADVECT NWD INTO AT LEAST
SERN OK AND SWRN AR BY MIDNIGHT.  THOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME
DESTABILIZATION...00Z SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT A WARM NOSE EXISTS JUST
ABOVE H7 AND MAY TEMPER OVERALL INSTABILITY VALUES. 
NONETHELESS...0-1KM SHEAR REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND
A COUPLE OF TORNADOES SHOULD STORMS REMAIN ORGANIZED. 

ACTIVITY ALONG THE NRN END OF THE DEVELOPING LINE SHOULD BECOME
INCREASINGLY ELEVATED AS STORMS MOVE INTO NWRN/NCNTRL AR. 
STRONGER...LIKELY SFC-BASED STORMS...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SERN OK AND
WCNTRL/SWRN AR FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. AS A RESULT...AN ADDITIONAL
WW MAY EVENTUALLY BECOME REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS OF WCNTRL/SWRN AR TO
THE EAST OF WT 782/783 BY 02-03Z.

..RACY.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...

34109664 35209525 35659399 35249300 34379280 33899326
33819553 