[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 211647
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211647 
KSZ000-NEZ000-211815-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1992
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1147 AM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS W-CENTRAL/NWRN KS.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 211647Z - 211815Z

A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SVR
HAIL AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO...NE-E OF DEEP-TROPOSPHERIC LOW
NOW ADVANCING EWD FROM CO ACROSS WRN KS.

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER W-CENTRAL KS BETWEEN
GLD-GCK...WARM FRONT NEWD BETWEEN HLC-MCK...COLD FRONT SSEWD TO
E-CENTRAL TX PANHANDLE...AND PREFRONTAL DRYLINE/CONVERGENCE LINE
FROM THOMAS COUNTY KS SSEWD TO EXTREME NWRN WOODS COUNTY OK.  LATTER
BOUNDARY CORRESPONDS TO NARROW ARC OF CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A FEW
SMALL TSTMS -- BUILDING ATTM FROM SRN SHERIDAN COUNTY SEWD TOWARD
EDWARDS COUNTY...WITH CU/TCU SWD ACROSS OK BORDER.  ALTHOUGH
BUOYANCY WILL REMAIN LIMITED...PRIND SFC-BASED INSTABILITY WILL
DEVELOP IN NEXT 1-2 HOURS WITHIN NARROW CORRIDOR OF CLEARED SKIES
AND SFC HEATING...LOCATED BETWEEN CONVERGENCE LINE AND BACK EDGE OF
DENSE CLOUD LAYERS COVERING CENTRAL/NRN KS.  MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS
INDICATE 64-66 DEG F SFC TEMPS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MLCAPES UP TO
500 J/KG TO DEVELOP.  THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NEWD THROUGH
HYS/HLC/RSL/GBD AREAS AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO BUILD ALONG BOUNDARY.
 VERY TENUOUS BALANCE EXISTS BETWEEN SUPERCELL THREAT AND INABILITY
TO SUSTAIN DISCRETE UPDRAFTS...GIVEN STRENGTH OF AMBIENT FLOW AND
LIMITED CAPE.  DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR APPEARS INTENSE...WITH UP
TO 80 KT MIDLEVEL WINDS DETECTED BY HVL PROFILER...CONTRIBUTING TO
AT LEAST 50-60 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR.  PROFILER/RUC WINDS INDICATE 0-1
KM SRH 250-400 J/KG.

..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...

39019962 39390018 39600081 39840073 40010005 39989961
39829905 39399837 38609797 38079799 37809832 37809860