[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 122236
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122236 
NMZ000-AZZ000-130000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1960
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0536 PM CDT TUE SEP 12 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN AZ...SWRN NM

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 122236Z - 130000Z

UPPER LOW ALONG THE AZ/MEXICAN BORDER...SW OF GBN WILL MOVE LITTLE
THIS EVENING.  OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS STRONG STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ALONG THE WEST SLOPES OF THE NRN OCCIDENTAL RANGE...JUST SOUTH OF
THE AZ BORDER. SLY FLOW AT 500MB IS A BIT STRONGER ACROSS THIS
REGION SO CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NWD INTO SERN AZ WHERE
ROUGHLY 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE IS NOTED.  OTHER STORMS...BUT LESS
SHEARED...HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SWRN NM. WHILE A FEW STORMS MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL OR PERHAPS SOME GUSTY WINDS THIS EVENING...A
WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.  HEAVY RAIN MAY
ULTIMATELY BE THE GREATEST THREAT AS THESE STORMS TRAIN NWD.

..DARROW.. 09/12/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EPZ...TWC...

31201092 31661083 32071117 33170994 33200896 32540833
31670800