[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 102247
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 102246 
KSZ000-NEZ000-102345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1956
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0546 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST KS .. EXTREME SE NE

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 102246Z - 102345Z

SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST KS
POSING A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
IS THE MOST LIKELY THREAT.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHEAST OF A QUASI STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ORIENTED NW TO SE OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS IN AN AREA WITH
MLCAPE AOA 2000 J/KG. SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE
SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
APPROXIMATELY 25 KTS AND BACKED SURFACE WINDS NORTHEAST OF THE
BOUNDARY HAVE SUPPORTED STORM ROTATION AND SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION
ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT OF SEVERE HAIL OF UP TO ONE INCH DIAMETER. 
MEDIOCRE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY LIMIT HAIL POTENTIAL.
DEVELOPMENT OF ADDITIONAL STORMS NEAR THE BOUNDARY IS POSSIBLE AS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT STORMS THAT MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE BOUNDARY WILL ENTER AN INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT.

..SCHNEIDER.. 09/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...

39939680 40169631 40019577 39709526 39439508 39009504
38789534 38849586 39299634 39559656 

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