[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 101904
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101903 
TXZ000-102000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1955
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0203 PM CDT SUN SEP 10 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHWESTERN TEXAS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 101903Z - 102000Z

THUNDERSTORMS EAST AND SOUTH OF SPS...MAY INTENSIFY AND ALSO DEVELOP
WWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF NWRN TX DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
MONITORING AREA FOR A POSSIBLE WW.

AT 19Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM WEST OF ADM TO 40 S OF
SPS...AND THEN RECURVED BACK WNWWD TO A SURFACE LOW LOCATED
NORTHEAST OF PVW. THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM
50 SW OF SPS TO 35 SW ADM...MOVING SEWD AT 20 KT. AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES EWD THROUGH THE TX PANHANDLE...STORMS ARE LIKELY TO
REDEVELOP WWD ALONG THE BOUNDARY. ELY SURFACE WINDS JUST NORTH OF
THE BOUNDARY ARE RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR NEAR 30 KT. THIS
SHEAR ALONG WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2500 J/KG ARE FAVORABLE FOR
STORM INTENSIFICATION...WITH HAIL AND STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
GIVEN THE CURRENT COLD POOL AND SEWD PUSH OF THE BOUNDARY...THESE
STORMS MAY SPREAD TOWARD THE BGS-ABI-MWL AREAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

..IMY.. 09/10/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF...

34490135 34180071 33600010 33559862 33649776 32349774
31989893 32200022 33050107 34180153