[MCD] SWOMCD

Sun Sep 3 19:26:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 031928
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 031927 
WIZ000-ILZ000-IAZ000-MNZ000-NEZ000-SDZ000-NDZ000-032030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1929
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0227 PM CDT SUN SEP 03 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SERN MN...NERN NEB/NWRN IA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 031927Z - 032030Z

...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THUNDERSTORMS FROM NERN NEB
INTO MN...

UPPER LOW IS CLEARLY DEFINED OVER EXTREME NWRN IA WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING HAS AIDED CONVECTION BENEATH COLDER MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES. 
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS H5 TEMPS ARE ROUGHLY -20C BENEATH THIS
FEATURE WHICH COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES HAS GENERATED A
FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY ALONG SRN PERIPHERY FROM NERN NEB INTO NWRN
IA.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO IA WHERE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER UPDRAFTS.

DOWNSTREAM...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE EVOLVED WITHIN THICKER
WARM ADVECTION CLOUDINESS FROM SWRN WI INTO CNTRL MN.  ALTHOUGH
LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP WITHIN THIS MORE MOIST
PLUME...A FEW STORMS HAVE RECENTLY INTENSIFIED...ESPECIALLY OVER
SERN INTO CNTRL MN.  INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO WARRANT MORE
THAN SMALL-MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.

..DARROW.. 09/03/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

42369855 47199587 44208913 41149063 40879657 

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