[MCD] SWOMCD

[Mesoscale Convective Discussions]

ACUS11 KWNS 010221
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 010221 
KSZ000-COZ000-010345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1919
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0921 PM CDT THU AUG 31 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO INTO WRN KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 760...

VALID 010221Z - 010345Z

POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME SEVERE HAIL IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS WRN KS PORTION OF WW THROUGH LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS OF 0205Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED A MATURE MCS WITH
ASSOCIATED LINE END VORTEX FROM WASHINGTON COUNTY SWD TO KIOWA
COUNTY CO WITH ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS OVER
GREELEY...WICHITA AND LOGAN COUNTIES IN WRN KS.  MODIFICATION OF 00Z
DDC SOUNDING FOR CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS WRN KS INDICATE
THAT CONVECTIVE INHIBITION IS STEADILY INCREASING...THOUGH AIR MASS
STILL REMAINS POTENTIALLY MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES OF
1500-2000 J/KG.  EVOLUTION OF LINE END VORTEX AND EXPANSION OF
TRAILING PRECIPITATION REGION IN ASSOCIATION WITH FAR ERN CO MCS MAY
STILL SUPPORT LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS VIA ENHANCEMENT OF REAR
INFLOW JET.

AFOREMENTIONED MORE DISCRETE STORMS OVER WRN KS MAY TEND TO INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS LLJ INTENSIFIES...WITH
THE SUBSEQUENT DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY STORM CLUSTER OR MCS...OR
DISCRETE PROPAGATION OF WRN MCS TO A NEW DOWNSTREAM POSITION. 
REGARDLESS OF EVOLUTION...ACTIVITY SHOULD TEND TO MOVE/DEVELOP MORE
SEWD WITH TIME TOWARD GCK/DDC WITH A CONTINUED THREAT OF MAINLY
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

OTHER STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR OR JUST ON COOL SIDE OF SURFACE-850 MB
FRONTAL ZONE FROM ROOKS COUNTY SEWD TO RICE COUNTY MAY INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AS WELL ALONG ERN EDGE OF LLJ WITH COMPLEX PROPAGATING
SEWD.  HERE TOO...ISOLATED AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

..MEAD.. 09/01/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...

38770245 39420238 39770218 39770134 39270074 38080054
37810130 37820193 38000231 

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