[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Sep 27 19:51:33 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 271951
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 271951 
KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-TNZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-272045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2039
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT WED SEP 27 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AR/SRN-SERN MO/FAR SRN IL/FAR WRN KY/FAR WRN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 271951Z - 272045Z

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING ACROSS NWRN INTO
NRN AR THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE NEWD
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT INTO SRN IL/LOWER OH VALLEY. WW MAY BE
REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON FROM NRN AR INTO FAR SRN IL/WRN KY.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED SRN EXTENT OF A MID LEVEL IMPULSE
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY...WHILE SRN STREAM SHORT
WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER WRN AR.  19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM LOWER MI/NERN IND SWWD THROUGH SRN IL/SRN
MO AND CENTRAL OK.  ASCENT WITH SRN STREAM IMPULSE COMBINED WITH
OROGRAPHIC FORCING ARE LIKELY SUPPORTING ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS NWRN AR.  ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEWD ALONG THE
COLD FRONT AS THIS BOUNDARY ENCOUNTERS A MARGINAL TO MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/.  LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING SHOULD WEAKEN THE CINH BY LATE
AFTERNOON AIDING IN GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WITH
EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF STORM ORGANIZATION.

..PETERS.. 09/27/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA...

37049153 38488880 37708763 35928899 35148989 34889173
35039383 35729427 36399336 