[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Sep 23 00:50:37 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230051
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230050 
KYZ000-INZ000-TNZ000-ILZ000-MOZ000-230245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2017
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0750 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO AND WRN/SRN IL...WRN AND CENTRAL KY AND SRN
IND

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 788...790...

VALID 230050Z - 230245Z

THREAT FOR SVR TSTMS /INCLUDING TORNADIC SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE
OVER MUCH OF WW 788  AND INTO WW 790 FOR THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER
AFTER 02Z...MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF WW 788 WILL LIKELY SEE
SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION THAT THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH AND
A NEW WW IN THIS AREA IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER FURTHER SOUTH...A FEW
SUPERCELLS /INCLUDING LEFT SPLITTING STORMS/ MAY MOVE INTO SRN
PORTIONS OF WW 788 FROM WW/S 792 AND 787 OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS.
THEREFORE THIS IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A REPLACEMENT WW OVER SERN
MO BEFORE 02Z.

LATEST VWP DATA INDICATED A LOW LEVEL JET WAS ORIENTED SW-NE ACROSS
WRN INTO NRN AR. STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG ONGOING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER ACROSS NRN AR /SOUTH
OF WW 788/. HOWEVER STRONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT LEFT SPLITTING SUPERCELLS. SOME OF THESE MAY MOVE INTO SRN
MO BEYOND 02Z SUPPORTING A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. FURTHER
NORTH...CLUSTER OF STRONG STORMS AND SUPERCELLS SOUTH OF THE STL
METRO AREA SHOULD MOVE EWD INTO WW 790 BY AROUND 02Z. CONVECTIVE
LINE /WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS/ WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EWD ACROSS
CENTRAL IL. WEAKENING LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD TEND TO LIMIT
OVERALL TORNADO/SVR WIND THREAT IN THIS PORTION OF WW 788 BEYOND
02Z.

FURTHER EAST...SUPERCELL/TORNADO THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HRS OVER WRN KY AND SERN IL/SWRN IND /WW 790/ AS CONVECTIVE
LINES/CELLS MOVES OUT OF SWRN IL AND SERN MO. WITH SFC WARM FRONT 
IN THE REGION...DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IN PLACE AND A LOW LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING...STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND TORNADO THREAT WILL
CONTINUE. LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER CENTRAL KY/FAR SRN IND IS
ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN ELEVATED AND THUS A NEW WW EAST OF WW 790 IS
NOT EXPECTED.

..CROSBIE.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...IND...PAH...ILX...MEG...LSX...SGF...

36718608 38488506 38478697 38508860 40278824 39799064
38969137 36589183 36558932 