[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Sep 23 00:31:50 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 230032
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 230032 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-230200-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2016
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0732 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN OK...EXTREME NWRN AR AND SCNTRL/SWRN MO

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 787...

VALID 230032Z - 230200Z

TORNADO WATCH 787 HAS AN EXPIRATION OF 02Z.  AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
LIKELY...PRIMARILY CONCENTRATED ACROSS ERN OK...WRN AR AND PERHAPS
EXTREME SRN MO.

NRN END OF THE DRYLINE HAS MOVED EWD AND WAS LOCATED FROM CNTRL MO
SWWD TO NEAR KSGF THEN INTO NERN OK.  LOW-LEVEL MSTR WAS BEGINNING
TO SURGE BACK NWWD ACROSS SERN OK AND NCNTRL TX IN RESPONSE TO LARGE
SCALE HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCD WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM.  

RECENTLY...TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WARM SECTOR E OF THE DRYLINE
FROM ATOKA SWWD INTO BRYAN COUNTIES IN OK WHERE CINH HAS WEAKENED. 
LATEST RUC GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO
ACCELERATE...THIS BAND OF STORMS WILL EXPAND NEWD INTO NWRN/WCNTRL
AR THROUGH MID-EVENING.  THIS REGION IS SITUATED ALONG THE SRN
PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FLOW THAT BEGINS TO INCREASE LATER
THIS EVENING...SUPPORTING A SUPERCELL THREAT WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.  ISOLD TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THROUGH
MID-EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS AND STORMS BECOME
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED. 

FARTHER N...IT IS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR ON POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT OF
TSTMS ACROSS SCNTRL/SWRN MO.  OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT
INHIBITION WAS INCREASING OVER THESE AREAS...BUT ELEVATED TSTMS WILL
CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE...PRIMARILY ALONG THE MO/AR BORDER.  LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

..RACY.. 09/23/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...SHV...TSA...OUN...

34089647 37739416 38279306 37939153 37059167 36789309
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