[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 23:43:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 222344
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222343 
WIZ000-230145-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2015
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0643 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL WI

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 222343Z - 230145Z

ISOLATED BRIEF TORNADOES AND OR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH DEVELOPING LOW TOPPED SUPERCELLS OVER CENTRAL WI THROUGH 02Z.
GIVEN RELATIVELY SMALL WINDOW OF SVR POTENTIAL...A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A WARM/OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDING SEWD FROM
CENTRAL INTO SERN WI. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS MOVED
ACROSS SRN WI AND NRN IL AND WAS DRIVING CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NRN
IL...WHILE LEAVING SRN WI IN SUBSIDENCE. HOWEVER FURTHER
NORTH...ANOTHER UPPER VORT LOBE WAS ROTATING NWD ACROSS WRN WI. THIS
FEATURE COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY AND MODEST INSTABILITY /MUCAPES AROUND 1000 J/KG/ WILL
SUPPORT CONTINUED LOW TOP TSTM DEVELOPMENT. RELATIVELY STRONG LOW
LEVEL SHEAR /200 M2/S2 0-1 KM SRH/ MAY SUPPORT A BRIEF TORNADO
THREAT WITH THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE IN THE NEXT 1-2 HRS BEFORE
SUFFICIENT STABILIZATION OCCURS THIS EVENING.

..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

45028866 45238975 44879049 44339016 43948974 43908898
43968845 44598814 