[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 17:49:19 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 221750
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 221749 
ILZ000-MOZ000-222015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2004
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CDT FRI SEP 22 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO... CENTRAL AND SRN IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 221749Z - 222015Z

ISOLATED TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE NEXT
1-2 HRS OVER PORTIONS OF ERN MO AND POSSIBLY WCENTRAL IL. FURTHER
EAST...CONVECTIVE INITIATION/SVR THREAT IS EXPECTED TO WAIT UNTIL
20Z ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND SRN IL. A WW IS ANTICIPATED
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY 19Z.

LATEST VISIBLE SAT DATA SHOWS CONVECTIVE INITIATION MAY BE ONLY 1-2
HRS AWAY ACROSS ECENTRAL/NERN MO AND WCENTRAL IL ALONG A
OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...REINFORCED BY LOW CLOUD
COVER...EXTENDING FROM 50 W OF STL SSEWD TO NEAR POF. AS THIS
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD IT MAY PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
INITIATION. HOWEVER THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT IN THE WAKE AND
TO THE WEST OF THIS BOUNDARY SUFFICIENT HEATING AND LIMITED
REMAINING CINH ALONG WITH STRONG WARM ADVECTION AND BROAD CONFLUENCE
SHOULD SUPPORTING DISCRETE ROTATING TSTMS MOVING NEWD FROM SWRN MO
/WW 787/ INTO ERN MO BEGINNING AS EARLY AS 19Z. STRONG LOW LEVEL
SHEAR /30 KTS 0-1 KM PER REGIONAL PROFILER DATA/ ALONG WITH MODERATE
INSTABILITY /2000-3000 J/KG/ AS EVIDENT BY 16Z SGF SOUNDING ARE
EVIDENCE OF AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORING SUPERCELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DMGG TORNADOES. FURTHER NE...ISOLATED SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP
ALONG CONFLUENCE AXIS/LEADING EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE RETURN OVER
CENTRAL IL IN THE NEXT FEW HRS. HOWEVER INSPECTION OF VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA AND MODIFICATION OF 12Z ILX SOUNDING INDICATES
SUFFICIENT CINH /100 J/KG/ STILL EXISTS TO DELAY INITIATION AND SVR
THREAT IN THIS AREA UNTIL AFTER 20Z.

..CROSBIE.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...DVN...SGF...

40638873 40788996 40089123 38829212 38309221 37809182
36939095 36809060 36958976 37258897 38308844 39048843 