[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 22 00:58:04 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 220059
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220058 
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-220300-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1998
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0758 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 782...

VALID 220058Z - 220300Z

VALID PORTION OF TORNADO WATCH 782 CONTINUES UNTIL 03Z ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS/EASTERN OK...WITH THREAT FOR A FEW TORNADOES/HAIL AND
STRONG WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR
FOR AN ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE EAST OF WW 782 INTO FAR SOUTHWEST
MO/NORTHWEST AR.

SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN EXTENT
OF TORNADO WATCH 782 IN CENTRAL KS...AS OCCLUDED FRONT/DRYLINE
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TOWARD THE KS TURNPIKE. GRADUAL INFLUX OF
MODESTLY RICHER THETA-E IN THE LOW LEVELS IS MAINTAINING A
MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS INTO SOUTHEAST KS...WITH OBJECTIVE
DIAGNOSTICS AND 00Z REGIONAL RAOBS REFLECTIVE OF MLCAPES RANGING
FROM AROUND 250 J/KG ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KS...TO 1000-1250 J/KG
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL OK. IN SPITE OF THE MODEST INSTABILITY...HIGHLY
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 300 MS/S2 OR
GREATER WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES AND HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS.

ALTHOUGH AIRMASS QUALITY IS CURRENTLY A CONCERN EAST OF WW 782 /REF
00Z SPRINGFIELD MO RAOB/...WILL MONITOR FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN
ADDITIONAL WATCH ISSUANCE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST MO/NORTHWEST AR.
LATEST RUC FORECAST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AIRMASS MAY MODESTLY
DESTABILIZE LATE TONIGHT INTO NORTHWEST AR/FAR SOUTHWEST MO AMIDST A
STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET/MOISTURE TRANSPORT REGIME.

..GUYER.. 09/22/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SGF...TSA...ICT...OUN...

36949698 38029531 37299360 36079354 35489480 35139621
35239710 