[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Sep 21 19:49:27 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211950
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211949 
TXZ000-OKZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1994
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/NERN TX.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY 

VALID 211949Z - 212045Z

WW REQUIRED.  SVR TSTM POTENTIAL IS FCST TO INCREASE THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING ALONG/AHEAD OF SFC DRYLINE.  SUPERCELLS WILL POSE
INITIAL THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS.  HOWEVER...TORNADO
POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE WITH TIME FROM LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH
EVENING AS MOISTURE INCREASES...LCL LOWERS AND AMBIENT KINEMATICS
STRENGTHEN.  ACCORDINGLY...AREAS FROM DAL EWD AND NEWD ACROSS NE TX
AND SERN OK ARE BEING UPGRADED TO MDT CATEGORICAL RISK IN 20Z SPC
DAY-1 OUTLOOK.

AT 19Z...SFC WARM FRONT -- DEMARCATING NRN EXTENT OF VERY RICHLY
MOIST GULF AIR MASS -- WAS ANALYZED NEAR ACT...LFK...LCH LINE...AND
WILL LIFT NNEWD ACROSS I-20 TOWARD RED RIVER...ESPECIALLY FROM DFW
METROPLEX EWD. DRYLINE WAS EVIDENT IN SFC MESOANALYSIS AND VIS
IMAGERY FROM W-CENTRAL OK SWD TO ABOUT 20 NNW SPS...THEN SWWD TO TOM
GREEN COUNTY TX.  COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN OK AND TX SOUTH PLAINS
SHOULD CATCH DRYLINE WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH COMBINED BOUNDARY
MOVING EWD INTO N-CENTRAL TX.  AIR MASS TO ITS E WILL CONTINUE TO
DESTABILIZE...WITH SFC HEATING AND MOIST ADVECTION BOOSTING MLCAPES
TO 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE.  CAP EVIDENT IN 19Z FWD RAOB SHOULD ERODE
-- WITH WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER BETWEEN MWL-DFW-ACT...AND MORE
MOIST LAYER FARTHER E. BY 00Z...MOIST ADVECTION MAY FURTHER BOOST
MLCAPES TO 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE INVOF WARM FRONT OVER NE TX.

..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...

32119835 32369886 33099900 33679849 34829779 34959697
34679542 34529486 33889479 32659463 32269541 32029673 