[MCD] SWOMCD

Thu Sep 21 19:17:32 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 211918
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 211918 
KSZ000-OKZ000-212045-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0218 PM CDT THU SEP 21 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL KS SWD ACROSS PORTIONS S-CENTRAL OK.

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 211918Z - 212045Z

STG-SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR IN BAND FROM EXISTING W-CENTRAL
KS CONVECTION SSEWD...ROUGHLY ALONG AND E OF I-35/135 CORRIDOR
THROUGH NRN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL OK.  IN ADDITION...GRADIENT GUSTS
APCHG CONVECTIVE SVR LIMITS MAY BE LOCALLY/SLIGHTLY ENHANCED BENEATH
CONVECTION.

SFC ANALYSIS AND VIS IMAGERY INDICATE DRYLINE CONTINUING TO MOVE EWD
ACROSS WRN OK AND SWRN KS ATTM...EXTENDING FROM ABOUT 35 W HLC
THROUGH RUSH COUNTY KS...SSEWD OVER P28...25 W END...20 NW SPS.
VWP/PROFILER DATA INDICATES MEAN WIND VECTOR AND 70-80 KT MIDLEVEL
SPEED MAX WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SSW-NNE...WITH STRONG FLOW COMPONENT
PARALLEL TO DRYLINE OVER NRN OK AND SRN KS.  FLOW ALOFT IS MORE
NORMAL TO DRYLINE AND FAVORABLE FOR DISCRETE TSTMS FARTHER S ACROSS
CENTRAL/SRN SRN OK.  HOWEVER DEEP-LAYER LIFT IS MORE
UNCERTAIN....WITH STRONGER CAPPING AS INDICTED IN 19Z FTW RAOB.

THROUGH 21Z...NARROW CORRIDOR OF DIABATIC SFC HEATING -- BEHIND
EARLIER CLOUD/PRECIP SWATCH -- WILL COMBINE WITH LOW-MID 60S F SFC
DEW POINTS TO BOOST MLCAPES INTO 250-500 J/KG RANGE.  DEEP-LAYER
KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE QUITE STRONG...I.E. 0-6 KM AGL SHEAR VECTORS
60-80 KT IN LMN PROFILER DATA AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS.  0-1 KM SRH
ABOVE 300 J/KG IS POSSIBLE FOR ANY DISCRETE TSTMS THAT CAN MOVE
SUBSTANTIALLY RIGHTWARD -- NEWD OF MEAN WIND.

..EDWARDS.. 09/21/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...

35619788 36729781 37449773 38019793 38839802 38819705
38229663 37249632 36079640 35559646 34589672 34339799 