[MCD] SWOMCD

Wed Sep 20 20:27:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 202028
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 202028 
TXZ000-NMZ000-202230-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1990
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0328 PM CDT WED SEP 20 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHWEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 202028Z - 202230Z

AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT...WITH PRIMARY HAZARD OF LARGE
HAIL...WILL LIKELY DEVELOP THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHWEST TX/TX SOUTH PLAINS. ALTHOUGH NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...WILL MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

CUMULIFORM DEVELOPMENT HAS EXPANDED OVER THE PAST HOUR ACROSS THE
TRANSPECOS REGION OF SOUTHWEST TX /NAMELY FROM FORT STOCKTON TO
MARFA/ AMIDST A WELL MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
INTO THE 90S AT MID AFTERNOON. SIMILAR TO VISIBLE SATELLITE
TRENDS...MODIFICATION OF THE 12Z MIDLAND RAOB FOR AMBIENT CONDITIONS
SUPPORTS A WEAKLY CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER. FORCING FOR ASCENT/VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS WEST TX THROUGH
EARLY EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH HEIGHT FALLS/LEADING MID LEVEL JET
AHEAD OF SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER TROUGH.

WIND PROFILER DATA FROM TUCUMCARI/WHITE SANDS ALREADY REFLECT THIS
INCREASE OF DEEP LAYER WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE A
CONDITIONAL LARGE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUST THREAT WILL EXIST INTO THIS
EVENING...THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE MODEST
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION...WITH MODIFIED 12Z MIDLAND
RAOB/RUC SOUNDINGS SUGGESTIVE OF MLCAPE OF 500-750 J/KG OR LESS.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY PROGRESSIVELY NORTH ACROSS THE
TX SOUTH PLAINS AND CAPROCK VICINITY TOWARD/WEST OF LUBBOCK EARLY
THIS EVENING.

..GUYER.. 09/20/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

35220262 35010126 31850161 30560265 30830372 32230355 

WWWW