[MCD] SWOMCD

Tue Sep 19 13:57:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 191358
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 191356 
FLZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-191530-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1988
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0856 AM CDT TUE SEP 19 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN GA AND THE CNTRL/ERN FL PNHDL

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 191356Z - 191530Z

THE THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL EXIST WITH
ORGANIZED...BOWING MCS.  A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

AS OF 1345Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THE LEADING EDGE OF A
BOWING MCS FROM DALE COUNTY IN SERN AL TO BAY COUNTY IN THE FL PNHDL
MOVING 270/30 KTS.  12Z TLH SOUNDING INDICATED THAT AMBIENT
DOWNSTREAM AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST WITH PW VALUES OF 2.1 INCHES AND
RESULTANT MLCAPES OF AROUND 2000 J/KG. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW FOR FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS MORNING
WITH MLCAPES INCREASING TO 2500 J/KG.  THE PRIMARY FACTOR LIMITING A
MORE ORGANIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT APPEARS TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK
TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS...PER 12Z RAOBS AND CURRENT VWPS.  STILL
THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST DUE TO WATER LOADING
EFFECTS AND COLD POOL ORGANIZATION ALONG CREST OF BOW.

..MEAD.. 09/19/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...

31248560 31458511 31508400 31288333 30848320 30408325
29948364 29588445 29588503 29848564 30128582 30518565
30738556 

WWWW