[MCD] SWOMCD

Sat Sep 9 18:48:13 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 091850
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 091850 
PAZ000-OHZ000-092015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1952
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0150 PM CDT SAT SEP 09 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN OH...NW PA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

VALID 091850Z - 092015Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN OH AND NW PA. HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY
OCCUR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS. A WW IS NOT
ANTICIPATED BUT THE ACTIVITY WILL STILL BE MONITORED THIS 
AFTERNOON.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING WWD FROM LAKE ERIE
TO FAR NRN IND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WITH MLCAPE VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 500 AND 1000 J/KG. THE
ACTIVITY IS LOCATED ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MID-LEVEL JET. WITH THE JET AXIS NORTH
OF THE FRONT WINDS ALOFT ARE RELATIVELY WEAK NEAR THE FRONT
SUGGESTING STORM MODE WILL REMAIN MULTICELLULAR. MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AROUND 7.0 C/KM COMBINED WITH STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY KEEP A MARGINAL THREAT FOR HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE GOING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

..BROYLES.. 09/09/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...

40817995 40618226 40778412 41178444 41428428 41578382
41608283 41688053 41617976 