[MCD] SWOMCD

Fri Sep 8 22:28:34 UTC 2006

ACUS11 KWNS 082231
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 082229 
AZZ000-NVZ000-CAZ000-090030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0529 PM CDT FRI SEP 08 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CA/SRN NV/NW AZ

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

VALID 082229Z - 090030Z

...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT THIS AFTN WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY
RAINS...

LATEST WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW AN APPROACHING JET STREAK IN THE WAKE
OF THE IMPULSE NOW ACROSS NW NM. SFC OBS ACROSS SRN CA INDICATE
WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE WEST WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING AROUND 15
DEGREES. LARGE SCALE LIFT IS LIKELY BEING ENHANCED ACROSS THE REGION
AS MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH APPROACHES. SUFFICIENTLY STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-35 KT IS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
MULTICELLS/SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY CONFIRMS MID
LEVEL ROTATION WITH STORM OVER SAN BERNARDINO CO. AIRMASS IS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE IN THE
50S/LOWER 60S. 

LARGE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE GIVEN VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT
LOCALLY STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE MORE LIKELY WITH HIGH
TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS ARE SLOW MOVING AND
LIKELY WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS. WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED DUE TO THE
ISOLD NATURE OF STORMS.

..TAYLOR.. 09/08/2006

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...

33801390 33751619 35621682 36531492 36221231 34451266 